The San Diego Union-Tribune October 10, 2001
Keen eyes in the skies
The Predator, a pilotless spy plane made in Rancho Bernardo, is a key tool in terror war
By Bruce V. Bigelow
Just days after the Sept. 11 attacks, President Bush described the war on terrorism as "a conflict with opponents who believe they are invisible. Yet they are mistaken."
His confidence may stem from advances in American surveillance technologies. In addition to orbiting spy satellites, U.S. forces have been using small robotic aircraft to precisely map military targets in Afghanistan, survey the results of air attacks and maintain a continual watch over terrorist hideouts.
As it turns out, much of this technology emanates from San Diego. Once a wartime capital of aircraft manufacturing, the region has infused its residual expertise in aviation engineering with sophisticated remote control technologies made feasible by recent advances in radio communications. For battlefield commanders, the most important tool in this new surveillance arsenal is the aptly named Predator, a robotic spy plane made in Rancho Bernardo by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems.
The Predator uses radar and a variety of cameras to transmit live images in any weather, day or night, to ground control stations that may be hundreds of miles away. Unlike piloted reconnaissance jets or orbiting spy satellites, a single Predator also can "loiter" above hostile territory for more than 24 hours.
Through a secretive Air Force program that pushes rapid development of new technologies, Predators flying over Afghanistan also could be equipped with deadly air-to-ground missiles usually used to attack enemy tanks.
"It's a confluence of a lot of technologies that make these things so valuable at this time," said Chris Hellman, a defense analyst with the Center for Defense Information in Washington, D.C.
To Hellman, what's more important than Predator's remote-control technology or radar-imaging capabilities is its data management system -- "being able to bounce signals off of satellites to ground stations in real time."
For the big picture, military commanders reportedly used the Global Hawk, a jet-powered drone that can fly at altitudes of more than 12 miles over hostile territory for up 36 hours.
According to Jane's Information Group, a British defense industry publishing house, the U.S.-led strikes in Afghanistan were preceded by the first operational deployment of the Global Hawk.
San Diego connections
The Global Hawk was designed in San Diego by Ryan Aeronautical, now part of Northrop Grumman. Only five prototypes have been built, and the Global Hawk is still conducting field tests. But in recent weeks, the Pentagon has moved to accelerate Global Hawk production and development by using emergency spending authority granted by Congress after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
The need for such technology became clear in the frustrating search for mobile Scud missile launchers during the Persian Gulf War. Since then, U.S. forces have gained more extensive "live-fire" experience with Predators in the Balkans.
The propeller-driven aircraft have reportedly been flying for weeks in Afghanistan, pinpointing military targets and searching for members of Osama bin Laden's terrorist network, al-Qaeda.
"If you define the mission as trying to find someone or something, I'd say they can be very effective," said James P. Masey, editor of Unmanned Vehicles, a trade magazine in Burnham, England.
Apart from providing military forces with around-the-clock surveillance of bin Laden's training camps and possible hideouts, an armed Predator could launch an immediate missile attack if a target was spotted.
Until now, such drones have only flown unarmed reconnaissance missions. But the idea is hardly far-fetched.
Combat drones in 2003
As part of a broader plan to dramatically expand the capabilities of robotic aircraft, the Air Force plans to develop combat drones as soon as 2003. The Air Force reported that it made aerospace history on Feb. 21 in the first-ever missile launch by an uninhabited aircraft.
In field trials at Indian Springs, near Nevada's Nellis Air Force Base, a Predator fired a laser-guided Hellfire missile that destroyed a stationary target. An Air Force spokeswoman at Nellis confirmed the second phase of the tests were completed just weeks ago, when Predators fired laser-guided Hellfire missiles against moving targets.
Thomas J. Cassidy Jr., GA Aeronautical Systems' chief executive, would not discuss details of the Predator's Hellfire field tests, except to say the tests "have been pretty successful across the board."
The armed drone tests were pushed by the Air Force's "Big Safari Program," a secretive agency renowned for its ability to rapidly modify aircraft to meet specialized military needs.
"Big Safari is not one of the Pentagon's black programs," said defense analyst John Pike, referring to the military's most-secretive projects. "But it is a dark shade of gray."
Since it was founded almost 40 years ago at Ohio's Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Big Safari has "specialized in figuring out what the war fighter needs right now and sort of 'kludging' it together," said Doug Berenson, a defense analyst at DFI International in Washington, D.C.
Fast turnarounds
"Given their track record of managing special, one-of-a-kind projects, they certainly have the capacity to do fast-turnaround prototype modifications of aircraft," said Pike, who oversees GlobalSecurity.org, a Web-based military policy group.
Last month, the Times of London reported that Hellfire-equipped Predators were already flying into Afghanistan.
But Pike and Masey said they doubted the United States would deploy armed Predators. Rather, both viewed the Predator's Hellfire tests as a "proof of principle" demonstration of combat drones.
Yet defense experts agreed that Predators are probably being used in reconnaissance missions above Afghanistan.
The Pentagon has refused to discuss details of its continuing operations. Last month, however, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld acknowledged that a Gnat, another type of drone made by GA Aeronautical Systems, crashed in Northern Afghanistan on Sept. 22. The Gnat was reportedly operated by the Central Intelligence Agency.
Although the aviation industry has developed a variety of reconnaissance drones, experts said the Predator has moved to the forefront because of its proven capabilities.
U.S. military forces have been sending Predators into hostile territory in the Balkans for more than six years. Predators also have been flying into Iraq's No-Fly Zone, where one of the aircraft was lost in August.
Cost: $3.2 million each
The military has placed orders for nearly 80 Predators, which cost about $3.2 million apiece.
GA Aeronautical Systems had delivered almost 70 of the UAVs, although neither the Air Force nor the company will say how many have actually been deployed. About a dozen Predators have been shot down or crashed, according to public accounts over the past five years or so.
"It is the only really proven platform," said Masey. "It was the one available at the time, the one that has done most of the work."
Still, the U.S. military hopes to dramatically expand the capabilities of what it calls UAVs, or Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles, by incorporating new technologies and developing new aircraft.
In the near future, the Pentagon plans to integrate the UAVs with other operations, so surveillance imagery from drones can be shared with sophisticated airborne surveillance aircraft such as the RC-135 V/W "Rivet Joint" and E-8 Joint Stars.
"Since you've got a real-time intelligence capability -- and real time is key -- it certainly would be valuable to recognize and communicate to your troops on the ground that they're walking into an ambush," Hellman said. The military also has tested the idea of controlling drones from the cockpits of AH-64 Apache attack helicopters and OA-10 "Thunderbolt" tank killers.
Longer range plans call for using robotic aircraft in missions commonly categorized as "the dull, the dirty and the dangerous."
For example, UAVs offer advantages in performing airborne sentry duty ("the dull") because of their lofty vantage point and their ability to "loiter" for hours or even days. Drones equipped with sensors for detecting nuclear, biological or chemical warfare agents could reconnoiter contaminated areas ("the dirty"). Finally, armed UAVs could be used to suppress enemy air defenses in high-risk missions ("the dangerous") now flown by Navy Intruders or Air Force F-16s.
In the past, such ideas were continually orphaned by insufficient funding, said Pike, the analyst at GlobalSecurity.org.
But congressional support has swelled in the weeks following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. More than $1.3 billion of the first $4.2 billion in emergency spending authority given to the Pentagon last month will go to improving intelligence gathering, including expediting development of the Global Hawk, a high-altitude, jet-powered UAV.
"Right now it's just a matter of resources," said Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter of El Cajon, who serves on the House Armed Services Committee. "We need more of them."
Copyright 2001 The San Diego Union-Tribune
