Agence France Presse October 2, 2001
US electronic surveillance technology comes up short in war on terrorism
By JEAN-MICHEL STOULLIG
The United States possesses an impressive arsenal of electronic surveillance devices highly effective against conventional troop movements but likely to prove less useful in tracking down terrorist networks in Afghanistan, experts have warned.
They said satellites, aircraft and pilotless drones can prepare the ground for bombardments and commando operations but cannot replace human, on-the-ground spies when the goal is to foresee attacks and terrorist movements.
"Basically you use satellites to identify a possible training camp, you could use radar on U-2 (spy planes) to see if there are trucks moving around and then you could use Predator (drones) to see if there are any troops moving around," said John Pike, an analyst with the independent research center Globalsecurity.org. From space the United States operates an elaborate network to observe and listen to earth. "The broader space-based component ... like weather and communication satellites is the central nervous system of our entire military operation in Afghanistan," noted Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists.
There are in addition signal intelligence -- Sigint -- satellites employed by the National Security Agency that make use of enormous antennae to capture radio communications. But in an impoverished country such as Afghanistan, with very little sophisticated infrastructure, according to Pike, such satellites would not have a major role to play. He said military agencies rely on two types of spy satellites currently in orbit -- Onyx radar satellites that can see through clouds and night-time darkness and produce high definition pictures and satellites that furnish digital images, as if the Hubble astronomical observatory were trained on the earth.
But the satellites scan the earth only twice a day for five minutes as they keep to their established orbits over the region, according to Pike. For that reason spy planes are preferred to satellites because they remain for hours above their targets. U-2 planes, of which the CIA has made great use since 1955, fly so high they are threatened only by long-range missiles, which Afghanistan does not possess. Also in the region are AWACS and E-2C Hawkeye surveillance aircraft.
Drones too are favored by the military, notably the high altitude Global Hawk and mid-altitude Predator for troop surveillance. But the Predator is vulnerable -- one was brought down this year by Iraq while another appears to have been destroyed by the Taliban.
Hidden electronic sensors, about the size of a human hand, are equipped with cameras and other surveillance equipment and can be released or installed by commando forces. But to hunt down Osama bin Laden, identified by Washington as the chief suspect in the September 11 attacks in New York and Washington, no weapon is more useful than small groups of elite forces operating behind the lines for short periods of time, said Victor Gubarev of the Texas-based Strafor research group.
"Human intelligence is really vital," he said, noting that in Afghanistan it is impossible from the air to distinguish a civilian truck from one used by guerrillas. At the moment, he added, the United States lacks a network of informants in Afghanistan, especially within the Pashtun ethnic group to which the Taliban belong. Gubarev said Washington will have to cooperate with intelligence services from France and Britain and especially from Pakistan and Russia.
"There will be no preference given to just one type of intelligence," Gubarev predicted. But he added that "the ones closer to the ground, such as Predator, special forces, tactical intelligence, will be used more often as they are more effective than satellites and U2s." "They will be also more vulnerable and the United States will have to chose between risk and effectiveness."
Copyright 2001 Agence France Presse
