The Kansas City Star September 30, 2001
Tightening the vise;
For the Taliban it's a 'come-as-you-are war'
BY E. THOMAS McCLANAHAN
It was a decided change in tone: A few days after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Washington was rattling the saber. But last week, diplomatic maneuvering took center stage and any talk of imminent war was discounted. "We don't believe in just demonstrating that our military is capable of bombing," said Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz.
Yet make no mistake, the vise is closing on Afghanistan. The anti-Taliban Northern Alliance has stepped up an ongoing offensive and last week claimed to be making progress. The Taliban disputed the extent of those claims but acknowledged to the Agence France-Presse news service that its opponents had gained ground. The increased tempo of this fighting is significant in itself because the Taliban are cut off from any sources of resupply.
"The Taliban are fighting a come-as-you-are war," said John Pike of Globalsecurity.org, an independent defense-policy anlysis institute. "They have all the bullets they're ever going to have. The Northern Alliance are going to have all the bullets they can shoot, and then some." Which means that if and when a U.S.-led attack is launched, the Taliban's ability to respond may be significantly weakened. Meanwhile, the groundwork for such an attack is being laid already.
Friday, the Pentagon acknowledged that U.S. and British special operations troops had conducted reconaissance missions in Afghanistan. Initial reports from such teams may have caused Washington to conclude more time is needed to find key targets and key people - including Osama bin Laden, the "prime suspect" in the Sept. 11 attacks.
The Pentagon is saying nothing about its plans. But here's how an attack might unfold.
Information from infiltration teams - along with intelligence from spy satellites, airborne eavesdropping equipment and unmanned drone aircraft - would lay the groundwork for quick-strike raids by U.S. units such as the anti-terrorist Delta Force, which could attack terrorist camps or seize prisoners.
Fixed targets would be hit by cruise missiles fired from B-52 bombers or ships cruising in the Arabian Sea. Known terrorist training camps have been abandoned, but most would be targeted. Some might contain caches for ammunition or supplies.
"The Taliban has about a dozen airfields," Pike said. "They presumably will be bombed. There are several former Soviet military bases and places for training, supply and logistics. There are some 'leadership' targets in Kabul and Kandahar - these will be hit. That gets you up to several dozen targets."
Other targets could include the Taliban's meager collection of conventional military hardware: aging Soviet MiG-21 fighters, helicopters, armored vehicles and transport vehicles. The Taliban have anti-aircraft weapons that could endanger U.S. helicopters, although their capability against high-flying jets is believed to be minimal. They also have an unknown number of heat-seeking, U.S.-made Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, which could also threaten low-flying aircraft.
A fair portion of the conventional military targets could be eliminated in a half-day of sorties, said Gordon Adams, director of national security studies at George Washington University.
After that, finding new targets would depend increasingly on ground teams working as spotters for bombers or gunships - cargo planes outfitted with powerful gattling guns and other weapons. Commando-style ground units could direct high-tech bombs at moving targets using laser-pointing equipment.
Once the obvious targets have been hit, however, the effort could bog down into a frustrating series of search-and-destroy missions in the bleak Afghan high country. The onset of winter - within the next two months - would present new challenges, but analysts say U.S. forces won't face the same problems as the Soviets, whose 10-year attempt to subdue the country was a massive failure.
High winds or blizzards would present problems for any ground operation, but using satellite navigation, U.S. planes and helicopters can thread their way through cloud and fog. Aircraft and satellites can detect structures and vehicles through cloud cover - a capability that could frustrate attempts by the Taliban or bin Laden to regroup. Any significant gathering of vehicles would be a potential target for a hit-and-run raid or a bomb.
"I think our forces are going to have less trouble with winter than the Russians," Pike said. "This isn't going to be like Korea. You're not going to see pictures of a lot of American trucks stuck in the snow."
The key aspect of any U.S. operation, however, is how the overall objective is framed by the Bush administration. Killing or capturing bin Laden is an obvious goal, but beyond that it isn't entirely clear how the administration plans to define victory.
Achievable goals would include substantially destroying the terrorist network in Afghanistan, severely weakening the Taliban regime, and greatly expanding the Northern Alliance's area of control.
Tougher-to-achieve objectives would include complete control of the country by the Northern Alliance (infighting makes this "alliance" inherently weak), and elimination of Taliban influence in Afghanistan (the Taliban will continue to draw on a hard core of support).
"It's a roach-in-the-kitchen problem," said Adams. "You eliminate some, the rest run, and you have to keep going back. It takes a lot of patience."
Copyright 2001 The Kansas City Star Co.
