GlobalSecurity.org In the News

Linda Diebel

``What kind of war is this?''

That's what ``people in uniform'' are asking the media, a reporter told U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld yesterday during a Pentagon briefing on the government's war against terrorism. Everybody's geared up for war. But, said the reporter, ``it sounds like we are creeping into a state of war rather than jumping in.'' ``You're right,'' replied Rumsfeld. ``We're not leaping into this. We're moving in a measured way.''

A week ago, President George W. Bush told the military to be ready, that ``the hour is coming when America will act'' in retaliation for the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in which more than 6,000 died. Military retaliation against prime suspect Osama bin Laden, and the ruling Taliban regime sheltering him in Afghanistan, sounded imminent.

Since then, messages about the action plan have been mixed. On Wednesday, at a meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels, deputy defence secretary Paul Wolfowitz said anybody waiting for military action ``needs to rethink this thing.'' Yesterday, at the Pentagon briefing, retiring Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Henry Shelton warned that ``soon'' U.S. forces would ``face one of the most difficult missions the military has ever undertaken.''

Analysts cite several possible reasons for mixed signals from Bush and his key advisers, including Rumsfeld, Secretary of State Colin Powell and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. They include: It's a decoy action to keep the enemy off guard. Rumsfeld reiterated yesterday: ``I am not going to describe the timetable we are thinking about.''

``No useful purpose would be served by telling the folks in Afghanistan, `You don't have anything to worry about until Wednesday afternoon, but you'd better take shelter around 7 p.m.,' '' says military analyst John Pike, from GlobalSecurity.org.

Confusion arising from splits within the administration, notably between Powell and Rumsfeld over tactics and goals. These include whether to bomb Afghan targets; whether to try and oust the Taliban; whether to target old enemy Saddam Hussein of Iraq; and whether to immediately retaliate against terrorist organizations, such as the Iranian-backed Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, a bin Laden ally based in Egypt.

It's murky because there is no clear plan. Yesterday, the New York Times observed ``the rhetoric was rousing, but what form of military action to take appears to be an increasingly awkward issue.'' The paper said members of Congress, briefed by the administration, have ``no real sense'' Bush knows what kind of forces to use in Afghanistan, or when to start using them.

The administration has learned from past mistakes, and is lining up all the ducks before taking concerted action. Wolfowitz said in Brussels there's no need for the U.S. to prove its military ``is capable of bombing.'' In the past, America has been embarrassed by everything from a failed Special Forces raid to free U.S. hostages in Iran to bombing a bin Laden hideout in Afghanistan, after he'd left.

``I think they have a general plan. But part of having a plan is figuring out what the problem is and they haven't done that,'' says foreign policy analyst P.W. Singer, at the Brookings Institution in Washington. ``But military operations have already started. Special Forces have already crossed into Afghanistan and we have reports of (British) SAS units exchanging fire with the Taliban. ``It's begun. It's just not the public kind of war that CNN can cover and that people can talk about.''

The issue of secret operations arose this week when Rumsfeld was asked if he'd lie to reporters. ``I can't recall that I've ever lied to the press. I don't intend to,'' he said, adding he would just avoid questions.

Clearly, some analysts believe, the Bush administration has been working out kinks over war plans in public, and on the fly. Sunday, Powell promised evidence against bin Laden and his Al Qaeda network would soon be ``put before the world (and) the American people.'' Monday, he backtracked, saying most of it is classified. Sunday, too, Rice suggested the goal is to oust the Taliban. But Powell insists that's not a priority, holding out the carrot it's not too late for the Taliban to turn over bin Laden.

``Powell's task is building the international coalition and keeping it together - the harder part,'' says Singer. Yesterday, Powell met with Jordan's King Abdullah. Today, the king meets with Bush at the White House.

``What we can do militarily,'' says Singer, ``isn't what we need exclusively to win this war. I think they are right not to jump right in. ``It's like jumping into a pool without knowing how deep it is.''

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