GlobalSecurity.org In the News

Experts: use high tech, humans

By Earl Lane and Lou Dolinar

From satellites in space and spy planes overhead, from low-flying pilotless drones to motion sensors deployed on the ground, the United States can bring to bear a wealth of sophisticated technology in the hunt for Osama bin Laden in the rugged mountains of Afghanistan.

But military analysts say success probably will depend on "humint," or human intelligence: tips by anti-Taliban guerrillas, Afghan defectors or others who may have insight on where the world's most wanted man is hiding.

"The humint side will be the key," said Stephen H. Baker, a retired Navy rear admiral and senior adviser at the nonprofit Center for Defense Information. Information from sources on the ground, he said, can guide the use of high-tech spy platforms and special operations troops to help zero in on likely hiding places for bin Laden and his followers. The job of finding the Saudi exile - called the prime suspect behind the Sept. 11 terror attacks - is not expected to be easy. Even before the attacks, U.S. military teams had been trying unsuccessfully to confirm his location and mount a "snatch" operation.

"A lot of it is not just technology," said Michael Vickers, a former CIA officer who is a defense analyst at the independent Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. "It's going to be quite difficult."

In the end, Afghan politics may determine the pace of operations and the result:Will bin Laden still presumed to be in Afghanistan, his lieutenants and an unknown number of terrorist trainees be able to disperse and blend in with the Afghan people? If so, technology will do little good, experts say.

"It's not like looking for a needle in a haystack," says John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a liberal defense think tank. "It's more like looking for a piece of hay in a haystack."

But if bin Laden is forced to concentrate his forces to fend off attacks from factions out to settle scores or claim the multi-million-dollar bounty on his head, the Saudi exile may be located more quickly. "There's a real issue of his personal safety," said author and military analyst James F. Dunnigan. "He is not universally popular, so he has a bodyguard of several hundred guys. If he moves with that convoy, we'll have him."

Afghanistan is the size of Texas and the search will require intense monitoring over time of possible hideouts.

"What you really need is nearly continuous coverage of a suspected area to see what movement there is and to see if any kind of pattern is detected," said Daniel Smith, a retired Army colonel who served in Vietnam.

U.S. intelligence agencies undoubtedly are bringing the full force of their high-tech surveillance gear to bear on Afghanistan, analysts said. Spy satellites passing overhead can photograph wide swaths of the terrain with a resolution capable of showing objects just a few inches across. Radar satellites can take images through cloud cover. High-flying U-2 spy planes can fly over areas of interest at unpredictable times, supplementing the satellite coverage. Drones of the Predator type - a 27-foot-long pilotless plane - can take photos from 20,000 feet or lower, lingering over an area for hours at a time. The drones are vulnerable to anti-aircraft fire and can be tricky to maneuver (one has already been lost over Afghanistan under unexplained circumstances) but they are considered much less risky than sending in manned reconnaissance planes.

Satellites and flying platforms such as the Air Force's "Rivet Joint," a modified 707, and the Army's "Guardrail," a twin-engine light aircraft, also can listen in on any radio or other communications, though specialists generally agree bin Laden has learned long ago not to use cell phones or other equipment susceptible to interception. He reportedly has been using couriers to relay messages to his followers in Pakistan and beyond.

But the Taliban militia could be a different story. If their positions are under attack, analysts said, the militia members will use radios to coordinate movements. Surveillance sensors should be able to pick up such transmissions and call in air strikes.

Another type of aircraft, a modified Boeing 707 known as Joint STARS, also could play an important role. It is designed to monitor tank and ground troop movements and display the vehicles in a "real-time," video game-like system for commanders. But Joint STARS also can pick up truck traffic, and key targets will be the convoys of pickup trucks that are the mainstay of the Taliban armed forces, which has few conventional tanks or armored personnel carriers.

A first step in the effort to find bin Laden involves a thorough review of old photo reconnaissance and electronic intercepts from U.S spy satellites, going back weeks or even months, according to William C. Martel, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College. Such devices vacuum up vastly more information than analysts at the Central Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency, and the National Reconnaissance office can process on a day-to-day basis. "We collect lots of stuff we don't use, but when we know what we're looking for, we can go back and look for it," Martel said.

In the case of Afghanistan, U.S. agencies have routine satellite records that go back years. Bunkers, caves, roads and paths that are camouflaged today may well have been less secure back then. Automated software can find these items and seamlessly strip away their disguise. Specialized sensors enhance the view.

Analysts said stealthy forces on the ground can deploy devices of their own, such as motion sensors near roads and pathways. The sensors can detect passage of vehicles or foot traffic and broadcast an alert. Baker, of the Center for Defense Information, said special operations forces will reposition themselves as the intelligence unfolds but will not take action only on hunches. "They will not act until they have what they determine is absolute information" about bin Laden's location, Baker said. Then, probably under darkness, using night-vision goggles and other specialized equipment, the teams will make their move.

Copyright 2001 Newsday, Inc.