GlobalSecurity.org In the News

New tactics, and patience, are key in the fight against terror

By Richard J. Newman; Mark Mazzetti; Edward T. Pound; Linda Robinson

The world's mightiest military is on the move. Aircraft carriers are steaming toward the Arabian Sea. Bombers, fighter jets, and refueling tankers are headed toward airfields in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia. Marines have been launched toward tomorrow's scattered battlefields. And in Washington, the generals and admirals are struggling to figure out how to exploit this mass of firepower in a new and urgent mission: global guerrilla warfare.

In the campaign against terror, there will be few enemy divisions to be faced, defensive bastions to be razed, or territories to be held. In this war, the foe is sheltered in mountain hideouts in Afghanistan, in dusty hovels in Iraq, in seedy apartments in Germany--and in leafy American suburbs.

The all-but-certain airstrikes against targets in Afghanistan will recall military attacks from recent years, including those against Iraq and Yugoslavia. Likely targets: the intelligence headquarters of Afghanistan's ruling Taliban regime in the capital, Kabul, as well as training camps and other outposts associated with Osama bin Laden. But that's just for starters. Along with conventional military strikes, government officials say, Washington will turn up diplomatic and financial pressure against countries that shelter and support terrorists. The administration may employ covert operations by the CIA and Special Forces troops to grab terrorists and undermine troublesome regimes like that of Iraq's Saddam Hussein. Watch and wait. Some of this, of course, has gone on in the past, but now the fight has taken on new meaning, urgency, and passion. Hardest, perhaps, will be for U.S. forces and their allies to crouch and wait, to bide their time in what President Bush last week pledged will be a sustained campaign against global terrorism. "I see it as a long timeline," says one senior Pentagon official. "There may be a lot of activity, and then nothing for a while."

Last week at Fort Bragg, N.C., home of the storied 82nd Airborne Division, troops from the 2nd Brigade went on "ready" status and were poised to deploy within 18 hours. They stormed fortified bunkers as exploding live charges and choking smoke made night training exercises a realistic prelude to what they may soon face. Later, the usual macho military banter among the young parachute troops gave way to quiet professionalism and expressions of anxiety about what may lie ahead. "I don't want to go to no war," said Pfc. Marcello Johnson, a lanky, soft-spoken 20-year-old from Flint, Mich. "But if we do, I'm going to do my best and, hopefully, make people proud."

The immediate focus of the war on terrorism is Afghanistan's ruling Taliban movement, which has harbored bin Laden and hundreds of his followers. In the wake of last week's address to Congress and the nation by President Bush, and Kabul's refusal to turn over its longtime "guest," a series of attacks on Afghanistan is virtually assured, though a full-scale invasion of the Texas-size nation is not likely. Such a huge military footprint on Islamic soil would further inflame anti-American sentiment in the region, and more subtle options may be more effective. These would include clandestine Special Forces units slipping in to attack suspected terrorist hideouts, with follow-up airstrikes as the enemy is driven from hiding. In preparation, Air Force Lt. Gen. Charles Wald last week took up his post directing air operations against Afghanistan and other potential targets, from Prince Sultan Air Base near Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

The campaign to destabilize or destroy the Taliban will serve a dual purpose: punish the radical Islamic regime for its support of bin Laden and send a warning to other governments supporting terrorism. Strategists hope for intelligence or logistical assistance from other nations in the region who are fighting their own battles against Muslim extremists aided by the Taliban, including two former Soviet republics on Afghanistan's northern border--Uzbekistan and Tajikistan--and Russia, which has pursued an often brutal campaign against Islamic rebels in Chechnya.

With assurances of cooperation from Pakistan's military ruler, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the United States is considering plans to offer reconnaissance and logistics support to help Pakistan seal off mountain passes leading into Afghanistan and thus prevent Taliban leaders and military units from taking refuge. Other neighboring countries, such as Iran, China, and the former Soviet republics, may similarly refuse sanctuary. Bottling up the Taliban would make them more susceptible to U.S.-led airstrikes against key government facilities, such as the Kabul intelligence headquarters, which Pentagon officials believe may have been a planning center for the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington. Aerial attacks could come from long-range bombers based in the Persian Gulf or on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, as well as directly from the United States. Shorter-range combat jets could fly from Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Though reluctant, these countries are likely to cooperate--or conveniently look the other way--if the United States forces the issue.

"Onesey-twosey." Airstrikes, however, are only a supplement to fighting a guerrilla-style war in which the principal targets are terrorists--not buildings or conventional military units. "There are insufficient discrete targets for an air campaign," insists a retired Army three-star general. "The notion that we can use a lot of B-2s, B-52s, or B-anything is patently ridiculous."

Any prolonged battle inside Afghanistan will likely involve fighters from the Northern Alliance, the Taliban's main internal opposition. The alliance, with about 12,000 armed fighters, controls between 5 percent and 10 percent of Afghan territory, but its charismatic leader, Ahmad Shah Massoud, was assassinated just days before the terrorists struck in the United States. The alliance is weakened by internal tribal rivalries, making it an unreliable ally.

However the conflict unfolds, the risks are substantial and successes are likely to come slowly. "This is going to be a knife fight," says a senior military official. "It will largely be onesey-twosey, finding them here and there and weeding them out."

Beyond Afghanistan, some administration hard-liners, led by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, are pushing for an aggressive campaign to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. Moderates, including Secretary of State Colin Powell, worry that indiscriminate military action could ignite a worldwide Muslim backlash. And with no effective resistance inside Iraq, Saddam is a much tougher case than the Taliban. Iran looms as a more complex challenge. Even though Iran has signaled a possible willingness to give some measure of support for the American moves, there are strong links between Tehran and prominent terrorists, prompting calls from Pentagon hawks for action against the Persian Gulf's most populous nation.

And then there's the struggle at home to defend against the long reach of bin Laden and his followers. Along with intensified law enforcement measures, President Bush named Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge to direct a new cabinet-level Office of Homeland Security. Though the president offered few de-tails during his congressional speech, Bush is likely to follow recommendations by several blue-ribbon panels to have the office coordinate agencies like the Border Patrol, Customs Service, and Coast Guard. Those agencies now report to different government departments and are often neglected by the cabinet secretaries who oversee them. "Mr. Ridge is going to be shocked when he comes to Washington," says defense expert Frank Hoffman, "and discovers that there are 40 different agencies dealing with homeland security."

To give the office real teeth, Ridge will need a direct link to the National Security Council and the authority to implement a comprehensive homeland defense strategy. Without such authority, Hoffman contends, the new homeland security czar will be little more effective than the drug czar. At this point, however, nothing seems out of reach.

Targeting Afghanistan

An attack on the Taliban will most likely begin with airstrikes from bombers, cruise missiles, and fighter jets flying from carriers in the Arabian Sea. Indigenous rebel groups, known as the Northern Alliance, would probably lead a months-long ground campaign, possibly with help from small numbers of U.S. forces.

[Map labels:]

Afghanistan

Bin Laden training camps

Taliban military bases

Bases for U.S. troops

Possible airstrike routes

Refugee camps

Aircraft carriers (accompanied by cruisers, destroyers, and submarines)

Caspian Sea; Tehran; Iran; Iraq; Kuwait; Persian Gulf; Riyadh; Qatar; Saudi Arabia; United Arab Emirates; Oman; Arabian Sea; Turkmenistan; Ashgabat; Uzbekistan; Kirgizstan; Tajikistan; China; Islamabad; Pakistan; Karachi; India; Bombay.

In Afghanistan: Dushanbe; Mazar-e-Sharif; Herat; Shindand; Bin Laden mansion; Kandahar; Khost; Paktia; Rishkhor; Kabul; Jalalabad; Khyber Pass; Kunar; Northern Alliance area (darker area)

Sources: CIA World Factbook; GlobalSecurity.org; Monterey Institute of International Studies; U.N. High Commission for Refugees

Copyright 2001 U.S. News & World Report