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AMERICA'S ORDEAL; Bush Faces Long Fight Against Terror

By Earl Lane

In declaring that the battle against terrorism "will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped and defeated," President George W. Bush faces a formidable campaign against an ever-changing array of militant groups, specialists said yesterday.

While the immediate target is Saudi exile Osama bin Laden and the Afghan regime that has harbored him, the Bush call to arms, depending on how broadly it is interpreted, could mean a long-term effort against many other terrorists, even those not directly linked to the terror attacks on New York and Washington.

"It's easy to point to Osama and al-Qaida," said Tad Oelstrom, a retired Air Force lieutenant general who directs the national security program at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. "When he says he is going to go after terrorist organizations spread throughout the world, I don't know what that means. I'm not sure we will know what it means until we start peeling it back." The U.S. State Department, in its annual report on terrorism, said in April that there are 29 groups currently designated as "foreign terrorist organizations" whose members can be denied entry to the United States and are barred from receiving money or other material support from Americans. Included are bin Laden's al-Qaida; the Palestinian groups Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad; the Iranian-backed Hezbollah or Party of God; the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan; ETA, the Basque separatist group in Spain; and FARC, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. The report also lists 15 terrorist groups active in the year 2000 but not officially designated by the secretary of state as foreign terrorist organizations. They include the Irish Republican Army and the New People's Army of the Philippines.

Oelstrom and others said it is likely the United States and its allies will spell out links between bin Laden's network and other terrorist groups and states that harbor them. But just how many other groups will fall under Bush's umbrella of "global reach" is yet to be determined, experts said. "Those things will have to come up in discussion as we ask other countries to be a part of this," Oelstrom said.

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer, in comments to reporters yesterday, declined to specify whether regional groups such as the IRA and FARC might be included in the president's newly announced effort against terrorism. But he said, "With many of these organizations, it's hard to tell where one group ends and another begins. There is a global network that thrives on destroying or disrupting freedom."

Christopher Hellman, a senior analyst at the nonprofit Center for Defense Information, said Bush is calling for fighting terrorism "on a more holistic level," a move he applauded. "But where do you draw the line?" Hellman asked. "If we are going to enlist our friends around the world in our efforts to combat terrorism, what happens if we get a call from Spain that says now it is your turn to help us out. There are going to be a lot of quid pro quos extended and expected."

In many cases, that may mean economic aid or law enforcement support rather than military action, Hellman and others said. "In most countries, it will probably be law enforcement," said John Pike, director of the nonprofit GlobalSecurity.org. He said the initial focus on bin Laden and Afghanistan likely will draw substantial support in the United States and abroad. But he said, "The further it gets away from the 75th Ranger regiment going night stalking in Afghanistan and the closer it gets to placing all recent arrivals from Muslim countries under close surveillance, the bigger the problem you are going to have."

Pike and others cautioned that the success of Bush's anti-terrorism campaign will depend on avoiding stirring up even more anti-American antagonism abroad. "Every Arab Muslim who is killed and did nothing wrong is as much a victim as the people who were killed in the Trade Center towers," said Robert F. Turner, associate director of the University of Virginia's Center for National Security Law. "We have to make sure we are going after the right targets and we have to go after them decisively."

Even before last week's terror attacks, some experts were warning that a successful capture of bin Laden or destruction of his network would not mean the end of the battle. Last year's report by the National Commission on Terrorism noted that "If al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden were to disappear tomorrow, the United States would still face potential terrorist threats from a growing number of groups opposed" to American interests. It added, "new terrorist threats can suddenly emerge from isolated conspiracies or obscure cults with no previous history of violence."