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Hunt for Bin Laden Will Require Patience - Experts

By Tabassum Zakaria

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Despite the bold pledges of President Bush to capture Osama bin Laden (news - web sites) and wrap up his cells of militants, U.S. intelligence experts say finding the world's most wanted man will require patience and perseverance.

While Bush and U.S. lawmakers have been careful to say the war on terrorism is broader than just hunting down one man, bin Laden has become the public face for the prime suspects behind the attacks on New York and Washington.

The Saudi-born militant has eluded U.S. efforts to track him down for three years after he was accused of masterminding the 1998 bombings of two U.S. embassies in Africa.

A $5 million reward for information leading to his capture failed to deliver the multimillionaire into U.S. hands, and cruise missiles launched at suspected terror training camps in Afghanistan after the embassy bombings hit mostly empty sites.

While U.S. intelligence has tried to track bin Laden, it has so far been unable to pinpoint his position enough in advance to target him because he is continually on the move.

However, new U.S. resolve -- and the pledge to back it with military, financial and diplomatic might -- was expected to produce fresh momentum for getting a fix on the man Bush said he wants ``dead or alive.'' The key will be improved intelligence-sharing with Pakistan and others in the region.

``I believe that there is going to be redoubled effort to go after bin Laden with all of the resources we have,'' Sen. Richard Shelby, ranking Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said.

``But not just bin Laden,'' Shelby said. ``If bin Laden disappeared tonight from the face of the Earth, I do not believe in any way that that would rid the scourge of terrorism that we're dealing with,'' the Alabama Republican said.

In the aftermath of the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon (news - web sites), public sentiment is for a forceful strike on those behind the assault that left more than 6,500 dead or missing.

But U.S. officials stress it will be a protracted campaign involving many elements, and not just a quick military strike.

POTENTIAL TARGETS

``Our response involves far more than instant retaliation and isolated strikes. Americans should not expect one battle, but a lengthy campaign unlike any other we have ever seen,'' Bush said in a speech to Congress on Thursday.

``It may include dramatic strikes visible on TV and covert operations secret even in success,'' he said.

Analysts say disabling Afghanistan's ruling Taliban, which has given bin Laden refuge, will be key to finding the man. ``If you break up the Taliban where would Osama bin Laden go?'' Stan Bedlington, former CIA counterterrorism analyst, asked.

Obvious targets for military strikes would be suspected terror training camps, and airfields to disable the Taliban's limited air force and cut off one escape route for bin Laden.

The Taliban has about four dozen Russian-built combat aircraft, including MiG-21s, left over from the decade-long war against the Soviets who invaded Afghanistan and were ultimately driven out, said John Pike, director of Globalsecurity.org. His organization's Web site of the same name displays commercial satellite photos of some of the dozen air fields.

Another measure could be to destroy poppy fields in Afghanistan, one of the world's largest opium producers, which would cut off income to the Taliban, analysts said.

Increasing financial support and eventually supplying weapons to the Afghan opposition Northern Alliance could help tear apart the Taliban and locate bin Laden, Bedlington said.

The CIA has been providing some financing to the Northern Alliance, which lost its leader to a suicide bombing attack just two days before the attacks on America.

Discord within the country could also be exploited.

``Afghanistan is a very different country now than it was when the Soviets invaded. When the Soviets came in everybody unified,'' Bedlington said. ``Now it's a collection of ethnicities who are at each other's throats basically. And I think we can prey on those weaknesses,'' he added.

U.S. intelligence agencies should be sending operatives who fit into that region in appearance and language to recruit informants in Afghan refugee camps, Bedlington said.

Finding a defector from bin Laden's close entourage would be ideal, but very difficult, he said.

``He (bin Laden) knows where his people are, and that defector has to get out of the country and somehow get in touch with U.S. people,'' Bedlington said. ``He (bin Laden) will have gone, he changes his location a couple of times a week.''

Lawmakers were optimistic that intelligence-sharing with other countries would help locate bin Laden.

``I honestly believe that sooner or later we will get to Osama bin Laden, but he is not the only one we want to get,'' House Intelligence Committee Chairman Porter Goss, a Florida Republican, said.

``We've got a lot of good friends and allies around the world who are just absolutely outraged, completely motivated to deal with this issue and understand that it's their safety too,'' he said. ``And sooner or later the net closes.''