GlobalSecurity.org In the News

South China Morning Post

September 3, 2001

By Glenn Schloss

HUNDREDS OF kilometres above Earth, camera equipment on a satellite passing over the Taiwan Strait captures images of bases in Fujian province, where PLA missiles are aimed at the island. It is almost a daily occurrence as United States spy satellites, known in military parlance as "birds", take high-resolution photographs to monitor build-up of PLA hardware.

The capability to produce such detailed images was, until recently, limited to the Cold War superpowers of the US and the former Soviet Union or such states as France and Israel. However, that is changing as China, Japan and Taiwan rush to get their own military satellites into orbit. The growth of commercial satellite imagery is also providing defence forces with access to technology they normally could not afford. Experts warn that a "space race" with dramatic implications for peace and stability in the region is about to break out in the skies over East Asia and could heighten threats to stability as access to satellite intelligence makes it easier to plan attacks.

But military analysts say such a race also has positive aspects, because the growth in the use of photo-reconnaissance satellites for military purposes will enhance transparency and contribute to confidence-building among rival nations.

China's efforts to launch an optical-imaging spy satellite have been viewed as part of a bid by the PLA to gain the upper hand in information warfare. Recent reports quoting US intelligence officials claimed that a Chinese civilian satellite launched last September was actually functioning as the mainland's first advanced-technology spy satellite. The Zi Yuan 2, which reportedly carried a classified name of Jian Bing 3, was capable of transmitting images to a ground station, according to a Washington Times report.

An electro-optical imaging satellite would be more advanced than previous Chinese vehicles, which stayed in space for just a couple of weeks, used film to capture images and crashed to earth so the camera could be unloaded, said analysts. Taiwan defence minister Wu Shih-wen also claimed soon after the September launch that the satellite could have a military application.

Chinese scientists have apparently dismissed the charge. "It is unfair to accuse China of spying because inevitably a satellite image shot from space covers not only China but also its neighbouring region," said Professor Liu Jianbo, of the China Remote Sensing Satellite Ground Centre in Beijing. "This is a common practice in the international community, and I see no violation of any international treaty." But, if the claims are correct, it would mean that Beijing can now train its own camera on American forces in the region just as US satellites have long been monitoring the movement of mainland forces near the Taiwan Strait.

Xinhua had described the Zi Yuan 2 as a "remote sensing" satellite - rather than reconnaissance - to be used primarily for land surveying, city planning, crop-yield assessment, disaster control and space-science experiments. "But the military value is a very significant part of this satellite's job," said David Baker, editor of Jane's Space Directory. He said US intelligence officials would probably be able to determine the dual-use satellite's defence mission by intercepting the images it sent to ground stations.

At the same time, China was also seeking to boost its international prestige and power by establishing itself as a player in the "space club". "It (the launch of the electro-optical satellite) sends a political message that China is moving to establish itself as a world power," Mr Baker said. Beijing wanted to join the international space-station programme, along with the US, Russia, Europe, Canada and Japan, said Mr Baker. Since the 1990s, the PLA has been trying to develop satellites to track enemy submarines in shallow waters, locate ships or large battle groups operating in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and to detect military construction, according to Major Mark Stokes, a former US air attache in Beijing.

Taiwan's military is moving in a similar direction. It hopes to launch the ROCSAT-3 by 2005. Analysts believe this will have military spying capabilities, although it is officially described as being for scientific and civilian use. Taipei's programme has also been delayed by diplomatic interference from China. Pressure was put on Germany to refuse approval for a company to build Taiwan's second satellite - the ROCSAT-2. This is now being built in France and is expected to be launched in 2003.

"The Taiwanese military is trying to get as close to real-time satellite imagery as possible," said Andrew Yang Nien-dzu, secretary-general of the Taipei-based Chinese Council for Advanced Policy Studies. Washington provided copies of photos showing PLA movements in areas considered of interest to Taiwan, such as Fujian and Guangdong provinces, said Mr Yang. But the sharing of intelligence was on a case-by-case basis, and there was no formal mechanism for Taiwan to seek access to the sensitive imagery, he said.

Intelligence officials in Washington had resisted approaches from Taiwan to set up a regular programme to provide the island with more information. US officials were reluctant to share the information "unless the US detects there is a real danger taking place", said Mr Yang. Taiwan has had to resort to buying commercial satellite imagery. Last year, Taipei confirmed it had purchased photos of PLA bases from Space Imaging, a US company operating the Ikonos satellite. The images are so clear that one photo of the PLA air force's Wuhan base, 250 kilometres west of Shanghai, shows rows of fighter jets parked on the tarmac.

Taipei was revealed in August to have agreed a contract with an Israeli company, Imagesat, for pictures of mainland forces. This provoked a diplomatic protest by Beijing. The use of commercial photos frustrated Taiwanese officials because it could take three days to a week before they could be viewed, said Mr Yang. Images from the Ikonos satellite are also subject to clearance by US authorities, which can veto them on national-security grounds, although the power has not yet been exercised.

China is also reported to have purchased photos from Space Imaging. The PLA is also understood to have been offered the services of Imagesat's Earth Resource Observation Satellite.

Reinforcing the rush by East Asian nations to develop their own eyes in the sky to counter growing security concerns in the region, Japan decided to press ahead with its controversial satellite programme after North Korea fired a rocket which passed through its airspace in 1998. Last Monday, Tokyo approved spending 70.7 billion yen (about HK$ 4.6 billion) for the development of four spy satellites scheduled to be launched next year. Responding to fears about the possibility of a military resurgence, Japanese officials have sought to emphasise that the satellite development is "multipurpose" for such "information gathering" as the monitoring of weather patterns, natural disasters and to track the movements of illegal immigrants.

Japan wanted to launch its own spy satellites in order to distance itself from the US in space operations, said Nicholas Berry, senior analyst at the Centre for Defence Information in Washington. As well as the North Korea factor, Tokyo was also worried about the rise of China and wanted its own independent intelligence system to track development of the PLA, he said.

"It certainly works for transparency and confidence-building. It reduces the possibility of suspicion and deception," said John Pike, director of the GlobalSecurity.org consultancy. By being able to detect military build-ups or new facilities being built, decision makers would have early notice of potential problems and be able to seek to defuse tensions through diplomacy, he said.

Satellites could help to avoid conflict over the Spratly Islands, a group of reefs and outcrops in the South China Sea claimed by China, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. Structures built on the reefs by any of the rival claimants could be discovered early during the construction process. At present, occasional long -range reconnaissance flights conducted by aircraft detect the Spratly constructions after they have been built.

But spy satellites also allow military forces to identify targets easily in the event of full-scale conflict. Richard Fisher, an expert on the mainland military, said he was worried by China's development of an advanced spy satellite because of Beijing's links with such states as Iran, which have been accused of sponsoring terrorism. If intelligence about the location of a US aircraft carrier obtained by satellite were passed to terrorist groups, it would be easier for them to attack, Mr Fisher said.