DATE=5/28/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40524
TITLE=PAKISTAN NUCLEAR-DIPLOMACY
BYLINE=GIL BUTLER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: DESPITE TWO WEEKS OF INTENSE INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC
EFFORTS, PAKISTAN WENT AHEAD WITH NUCLEAR TESTS THURSDAY. VOA
CORRESPONDENT GIL BUTLER HAS A BACKGROUND REPORT ON THE DIPLOMACY
THAT FAILED.
TEXT: PRESIDENT CLINTON MADE A MIDNIGHT TELEPHONE CALL TO
PAKISTANI PRIME MINISTER NAWAZ SHARIF ASKING FOR RESTRAINT. THE
U-S STATE DEPARTMENT DESCRIBED AN EFFORT THAT INVOLVED HIGH LEVEL
DISCUSSIONS CENTERING ON THE HIGH COST TO PAKISTAN IF IT RESUMED
TESTING AND THE ADVANTAGES IF IT AVOIDED NUCLEAR TESTS. CHINA--A
CLOSE ALLY-- ASSURED A VISITING PAKISTANI FOREIGN MINISTRY
OFFICIAL IN BEIJING OF CHINA'S CONTINUED FRIENDSHIP IN ITS TENSE
RELATIONSHIP WITH INDIA.
BUT IN THE END, PAKISTAN ANNOUNCED IT HAD SET OFF FIVE NUCLEAR
EXPLOSIONS. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WAS LEFT DEPORING THE
DANGER OF A NUCLEAR ARMS RACE IN SOUTH ASIA.
WHY DID THE DIPLOMATIC EFFORT FAIL?
/// CRONIN ACT ///
THERE WERE THREE REASONS.
/// END ACT ///
PATRICK CRONIN OF THE WASHINGTON-BASED UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF
PEACE.
/// CRONIN ACT ///
FIRST, THE STRATEGIC CALCULATIONS OF PAKISTAN HAVE
ALWAYS BEEN THAT THEY'VE HAD TO MATCH WHATEVER INDIA
DID. THERE IS SIMPLY A CONVENTIONAL FORCE ASYMMETRY AND
THEY FELT THEY WERE GOING TO HAVE TO EQUAL THE INDIAN
STEPS. THE SECOND REASON WAS BECAUSE OF DOMESTIC
POLITICS. AGAIN, THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN AN OVERWHELMING
POLITICAL PRESSURE ON THE PART OF THE PAKISTANI MILITARY
AND OTHER ELEMENTS IN PAKISTAN INSISTING ON RESPONDING
TO INDIA'S ACTIONS. AND THEN FINALLY. I THINK THE LACK
OF INTERNATIONAL INTEREST AND WILL TO DEEPLY PUNISH AND
DEEPLY SANCTION INDIA WAS JUST UNIMPRESSIVE FROM THE
PAKISTANI POINT OF VIEW.
/// END ACT ///
IVAN ELAND OF THE CATO INSTITUTE, A POLICY RESEARCH ORGANIZATION
IN WASHINGTON, DOUBTS THAT ANYTHING WOULD HAVE PREVENTED
PAKISTAN'S TESTING.
/// ELAND ACT ///
I DON'T THINK WE COULD HAVE OFFERED THEM ANY F-16S OR A
SECURITY UMBRELLA OR THE THREAT OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS.
I DON'T THINK ANYTHING WOULD HAVE WORKED. THESE
COUNTRIES HAVE BOTH HAD NUCLEAR CAPABILITY FOR A WHILE
AND THIS IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THAT, AN UNDERGROUND
TEST.
/// END ACT ///
HE RECOMMENDS THAT, INSTEAD OF SANCTIONS, A NEW DIPLOMATIC EFFORT
BE UNDERTAKEN TO TRY TO EASE THE HOSTILE RELATIONS BETWEEN INDIA
AND PAKISTAN.
ALEX LENNON OF THE WASHINGTON CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES SAYS THE BIGGEST CONCERN NOW OUGHT TO BE
THE POSSIBILITY THAT, HAVING CONDUCTED TESTS, INDIA OR PAKISTAN
MOVE ON TO WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT.
/// LENNON ACT ///
I THINK PRESIDENT CLINTON'S BIGGEST CONCERN SHOULD BE
THAT -- ALTHOUGH THE NUCLEAR TESTS ARE SERIOUS -- SHOULD
STILL BE WHETHER INDIA AND/OR PAKISTAN DECIDE TO
WEAPONIZE: TO ACTUALLY PUT WARHEADS ON MISSILES. THAT
IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION BECAUSE OF THE RISK OF AN
ACCIDENT OR MISCALCULATION BY EITHER COUNTRY.
/// END ACT ///
UNDER AMERICAN LAW, THE ACQUITION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS REQUJIRES
SANCTIONS BEING IMPOSED. DEPUTY U-S SECRETARY OF STATE STROBE
TALBOTT SAID THE PURPOSE OF THE SANCTIONS IS NOT TO PUNISH
INDIA AND PAKISTAN FOR THE SAKE OF PUNISHMENT.
/// TALBOTT ACT ///
THE PURPOSE OF THESE LAWS -- AT LEAST IN THE NEW REALITY
THAT WE ARE FACED WITH NOW, THAT INDIA AND PAKISTAN HAVE
BOTH TESTED, IS TO TRY TO INDUCE THESE TWO COUNTRIES TO
DO WHAT IS IN THEIR OWN MUTUAL AS WELL AS INDIVIDUAL
INTEREST.
/// END ACT ///
MR. TALBOTT SAID ONE OF THE LONG RANGE U-S GOALS IS FOR A
POLITICAL DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES LEADING TO BETTER
RELATIONS. THE IMMEDIATE GOAL, HE SAID, IS FOR BOTH TO STOP
TESTING, SIGN THE TEST BAN TREATY AND JOIN NEGOTIATIONS TO HALT
THE PRODUCTION OF NUCLEAR MATERIALS. (SIGNED)
NEB/MGB/KL
28-May-98 4:22 PM EDT (2022 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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