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Analysis: Iran Throws Down Nuclear Gauntlet

Council on Foreign Relations

Updated: April 12, 2006
Prepared by: Lionel Beehner

Iranian officials called it "good news." President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that Iran for the first time had successfully enriched uranium, a critical step in the development of a nuclear-weapons program (NYT), and joined the club of countries with nuclear technology. The news comes just days before IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei is due to travel to Iran for nuclear negotiations. The UN Security Council has called for Iran to freeze all of its nuclear activities by April 28.

Experts say it still remains unclear how close Iran is to completing a nuclear-fuel cycle. But CFR Fellow Charles Ferguson and other nuclear experts, speaking at a recent CFR symposium, point out that Iran has proceeded with its enrichment process much faster than many expected and, despite skipping steps along the way, may have passed a point of no return in terms of rolling back its nuclear program. The Iranians removed seals from enrichment equipment at their Natanz reactor in January and, within a span of two weeks, developed a cascade of 164 centrifuges. Given the new political facts on the ground and Iran's recent announcement, most experts admit that the most likely option now, especially if the UN Security Council fails to take strict action, is for Iran merely to freeze its nuclear program, not completely dismantle it. Others, including the International Crisis Group, have even called for sanctioning a "limited enrichment" program, provided it is coupled with intrusive inspections. CFR President Richard Haass says in a new interview with cfr.org's Bernard Gwertzman that a very limited enrichment program could be permitted as part of a diplomatic package that combines incentives with the threat of military force. Any limited military strike, Haass argues in the FT, would not be "small or quick" and "would not remain limited for long."

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.