DATE=7/14/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-43881 TITLE=IRAN/PRO-GOVERNMENT RALLY BYLINE=NICK SIMEONE DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE DEMONSTRATING SUPPORT FOR IRAN'S CONSERVATIVE ISLAMIC LEADERSHIP RALLIED IN TEHRAN WEDNESDAY WHERE JUST A DAY EARLIER, WITNESSES SAID AS MANY AS 20-THOUSAND PEOPLE, MOSTLY STUDENTS, WERE OUT DEMONSTRATING AGAINST THEM. JUST WHAT DO THESE DEMONSTRATIONS MEAN FOR IRAN'S FUTURE ? V-O-A CORRESPONDENT NICK SIMEONE HAS BEEN SPEAKING WITH SEVERAL EXPERTS. TEXT: MISSING FROM TEHRAN'S STREETS WEDNESDAY WERE THE STUDENTS WHO FOR SIX DAYS HAVE BEEN DEMANDING PRO-WESTERN REFORMS IN DEMONSTRATIONS THAT WITNESSES SAY HAD BEEN DRAWING IN OTHER SEGMENTS OF SOCIETY AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY VIOLENT. WHETHER WEDNESDAY'S PRO-GOVERNMENT RALLY MEANS THOSE PROTESTS ARE OVER IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. FORMER AMBASSADOR RICHARD MURPHY WAS THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION'S SENIOR DIPLOMAT FOR THE MIDDLE EAST. // MURPHY ACT // I THINK THAT TODAY'S EVENTS STAGED BY THE GOVERNMENT MAY WELL BRING AN END FOR THE MOMENT TO THE DEMONSTRATIONS AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT. WHAT THE STUDENTS WERE PROTESTING WAS THE ISSUE OF FREE SPEECH, FREE PRESS. AND UNSPOKEN WAS THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN A GROWING CONCERN AMONG THE YOUNG ABOUT JOBS AND THE GOVERNMENT HASN'T BEEN ORGANIZING AND DIRECTING THE ECONOMY IN A WAY THAT'S PRODUCING THOSE JOBS. // END ACT // AT WEDNESDAY'S PRO-GOVERNMENT RALLY, DEPUTY PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER HASSAN ROWHANI WARNED ANYONE DAMAGING STATE PROPERTY RISKS THE DEATH PENALTY. PEOPLE WHO WITNESSED THE DEMONTRATIONS SAY SUCH ACTS HAVE NOT BEEN CARRIED OUT BY STUDENTS BUT BY OUTSIDERS INFILTRATING THE PROTESTS BENT ON PROVOKING A CRACKDOWN BY AUTHORITIES. // NELSON ACT // IT'S AT LEAST GOING TO BE PEACEFUL UNTIL (COMING) SATURDAY AND THEN WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS ON SATURDAY. // END ACT // WARREN NELSON IS THE ENGLISH EDITOR OF THE IRAN TIMES, A BILINGUAL NEWSPAPER FOR NORTH AMERICA PUBLISHED IN WASHINGTON. BY SATURDAY, STUDENTS ARE EXPECTING THE GOVERNMENT TO HAVE ADDRESSED THEIR DEMANDS. // SECOND NELSON ACT // THEY SAID THAT THIS WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH TIME FOR NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE GOVERNMENT OVER THE SEVEN DEMANDS -- THEY CALL THEM REQUESTS -- WHICH WAS RATHER DIPLOMATIC, THAT THE POLICE CHIEF BE FIRED, THAT THE NEWSPAPER SALAAM (RECENTLY CLOSED BY THE GOVERNMENT) BE ALLOWED TO RESUME PUBLICATION , SUCH REQUESTS AS THAT. // END ACT // THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT HAS DRAWN A LINE BETWEEN WHAT IT CALLS LAWFUL AND LOGICAL STUDENT DEMANDS AND WHAT IT DENOUNCES AS MANIPULATION BY FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC ELEMENTS -- A TERM USUALLY MEANT TO REFER TO THE UNITED STATES. THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION DENIES IT HAS PLAYED ANY ROLE IN FOMENTING THE STUDENT PROTESTS. BUT RICHARD MURPHY THINKS THERE ARE POSITIVE STEPS THE ADMINISTRATION COULD BE TAKING IF IT WANTS TO STRENGTHEN THE HAND OF REFORMIST PRESIDENT MOHAMMED KHATAMI. // SECOND MURPHY ACT // WHAT WE SHOULD NOT DO IS TAKE SIDES IN A POLITICAL CONTROVERSY. WHAT WE COULD DO BECAUSE IT WOULD BE GOOD IN ITSELF IS TO LOOK AT THE POSSIBLE INITIATIVES THE UNITED STATES COULD TAKE IN TERMS OF DOING SOMETHING ABOUT THE SANCTIONS IMPOSED ON IRAN. // END ACT // ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS TELL REPORTERS THEY ARE CONCERNED THAT BY NOT OPENLY DECLARING SUPPORT FOR THE STUDENTS, THE UNITED STATES COULD BE SEEN AS OFFERING THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT A GREEN LIGHT TO PURSUE A HARSH CRACKDOWN. AMBASSADOR MURPHY THINKS WASHINGTON'S BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO WATCH BUT SAY LITTLE. // THIRD MURPHY ACT // I THINK IT WOULD BE VERY, VERY DISADVANTAGEOUS TO PRESIDENT KHATAMI AMONG OTHERS IF HE WERE TO BE IDENTIFIED AS SPONSORED BY THE UNITED STATES AND BACKED AND ENCOURAGED BY THE UNITED STATES. // END ACT // SO FOR THE MOMENT, THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION IS KEEPING LARGELY QUIET ABOUT THE MOST SERIOUS DEMONSTRATIONS IRAN HAS SEEN SINCE THE REVOLUTION THAT LED TO THE FALL OF THE SHAH TWENTY YEARS AGO. (SIGNED) NEB/NJS/PT 14-Jul-99 5:36 PM EDT (2136 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .
