The Windsor Star March 19, 2003
If the U.S. invades Iraq, the most difficult job may be breaking the dictator's loyal guard
SOURCE: Scripps Howard Service
By Lisa Hoffman, Scripps Howard Service
They are 15,000 strong, the best equipped and most loyal of Saddam Hussein's forces and, if war comes to Iraq, his last-ditch protectors.
Created after the rout at the hands of U.S. and allied troops in the Persian Gulf War, Iraqi strongman Saddam's Special Republican Guard will also find themselves dead centre in the gunsights of American military commanders.
"Saddam's ultimate protection is his Golden Division of the Special Republican Guard," retired army Gen. Barry McCaffrey, who spearheaded a key U.S. attack in Operation Desert Storm, wrote in a recent analysis of the potency of the Iraqi military.
Defence experts largely discount the ferocity of Iraq's current conscript army of 350,000, a poorly trained and armed assemblage which folded fast during the 1991 war, surrendering by the hundreds to bemused U.S. troops.
Even the once-storied Republican Guard -- Saddam's elite 80,000-man corps that was the only part of Saddam's forces to stand and fight under the heavy fire of Operation Desert Storm -- is viewed now as less of a threat.
But the Special Guard, comprising the shock troops of Saddam's regime, is expected to be another matter if war again is waged.
"The Iraqi army would probably not fight for very long. The Republican Guard would last longer, but in the end surrender," Jane's Intelligence Review analyst Ken Gause recently wrote. But the Special Guard "would probably take the lead... (in what) would be the last stand of the formal regime."
Any U.S. invasion would face three concentric rings of defence devised by Saddam and his trusted generals to protect Baghdad, the seat of power:
* The first and most distant ring from Baghdad would contain the regular army, a rag-tag force of 17 poorly paid divisions armed with aging tanks and munitions.
* The second would consist of the Republican Guard, which encircles Baghdad with about six infantry and artillery divisions, plus all 600 of Iraq's best tanks, the Soviet T-72s. These volunteer troops would defend three main access routes into Baghdad, but, because of Saddam's doubts about their ultimate loyalty following several coup attempts, they would be barred from entering the capital itself.
* The last, most important circle would contain the Special Guard, made up of four brigades which analysts say could be expanded to some 25,000 fighters if necessary.
Under the control of Saddam's son and heir apparent, Quesay Hussein, this unit is made up of men carefully selected for their tribal alliances to Saddam. They are responsible for Saddam's protection and guard Iraq's alleged chemical and biological weapons caches.
If there is a Battle of Baghdad, the Special Guard would join forces with Saddam's Fedayeen, or "men of sacrifice." A volunteer army of fiercely loyal militia of as many as 35,000 men formed in 1995 by Saddam's second son, Uday Hussein, this group is trained to operate anti-aircraft guns and conduct guerrilla raids.
It also has earned a reputation for brutality. In 2001, militia men carried out a series of public beheadings of women belonging to families suspected of being anti-Saddam. They have been accused of slicing off the tongues of those who publicly criticize the president. Clad in face masks and black uniforms, they have been shown on Iraqi TV butchering cats and dogs and then eating the raw meat.
As a feeder for the fedayeen, the regime has established a twisted version of the Boy Scouts for budding militia members. Called Saddam's Cubs, boys between 10 and 15 attend month-long military training camps during the summer holidays, where 14-hour days of hand-to-hand fighting drills are common. Those who do well are invited to join the fedayeen.
Many Iraq experts believe that the most elite of Saddam's forces -- particularly the Special Guard and fedayeen -- can be expected to stand and fight to the bitter end.
But Iraqi exiles hoping for Saddam's demise aren't so sure. Iraqi opposition groups, many of which are made up of former Iraqi army officers, say a number of their former colleagues remaining in Iraq hope to bolt to the other side once Saddam's regime begins to crumble.
Aiming to spur just such a reaction, the Bush administration has put out the word that those Iraqi officers and soldiers who do not fight will not be harmed or subjected to war crimes prosecutions.
IRAQ'S KEY RINGS OF DEFENCE
Saddam Hussein's highest levels of military defence designed to protect his seat of perwer in Baghdad.
Republican Guard
Commander: Lt. Gen. Kamal Mustafa Abdallah al-Sultan. A force of as many as 80,000, it forms the outer ring of Iraqi president Saddam Hussein's praetorian guard. It's chain of command runs down from Saddam and his son Quesay Hussein. It is composed of a northern and southern corps, and six divisions -- two armoured, three mechanized and one infantry. It also has two special forces brigades, and aviation, artillery and air defence commands.
Special Republican Guard
Commander: Brig. Gen. Barzan Abd Al Ghaffur. Under the direct control of Quesay, the Special Guard is made up of 15,000 to 25,000 soldiers and Is considered Saddam's elite force. Positioned closer to Baghdad than the regular guard, this outfit Is dedicated to the personal Security of Saddam and his family. It Is composed of four infantry brigades and 14 battalions, More than 100 tanks, and batteries dedicated to artillerym air defence and Aviation.
Saddam's Fedayeen
Commander: Quesay Hussein. Operational commander: Lt. Gen. Mezahem Saab al Hassan al-Tikriti. Black-clad militia of between 18,000 and 35,000. Infamous for its brutality. Trained to operate anti-aircraft guns, and conduct urban and guerrilla combat.
SADDAM HUSSEIN
PROFILE
Born: April 28, 1937, in a mud-brick house in al-Awja, a village near Tikrit, 160 km north of Baghdad.
Education: Studied at Cairo College of Law in Egypt and al Mutansariyah University in Baghdad.
Career: Joined Ba'ath Party, 1956. Tried to assassinate Iraq prime minister, 1959. Helped Ba'ath Party coup, 1968. Seized power after purge of rivals, 1979. Invaded Iran, 1980. Invaded Kuwait, 1990.
Official titles: Great Uncle. Glorious Leader. Direct Descendent of the Prophet Mohammed. Field Marshal. President.
Family: Married to his cousin, Sajida, since 1958. Took second wife, daughter's teacher Samira Shahbandar, 1984. Five children with first wife: two sons and three daughters. Groomed sons Udai, 37 and Quesay, 36, for power. Had husbands of two daughters executed, 1996. Parisoula Lampsos, 54, says she was his mistress off and on for 30 years.
Personal: Limps from disc problem in back. Likes Cuban cigars, the Godfather films, Mateus rose wine, viewing videotapes of torture of enemies.
TIMELINE: U.S. -- IRAQ
1920
Mandate for Iraq awarded to United Kingdom by the League of Nations.
1932
Iraq achieves independence (Oct. 3).
1979
Saddam Hussein new Iraqi president.
1990
Aug. 2: Iraq invades Kuwait. Four days later, United Nations imposes economic sanctions on Iraq. Operation Desert Shield buildup begins soon after.
1991
Jan. 16: Persian Gulf War begins with U.S. and international coalition air strikes in Operation Desert Storm.
Feb. 27: Kuwait liberated by U.S. forces.
March 3: Iraq agrees to ceasefire.
April 6: Iraq agrees to UN resolution requiring it to end production of weapons of mass destruction and allow international inspections.
April 10: UN "safe haven" and "no-fly" zone established in northern Iraq to protect ethnic Kurds from Iraqi forces.
1992
Aug. 26: "No-fly zone" established in southern Iraq.
1993
Jan. 7: After Baghdad refuses to move missiles it placed in southern Iraq, U.S. and allied warplanes lob 40 cruise missiles at Iraqi missiles and other sites.
June 27: President Clinton orders cruise missile strikes against Iraqi intelligence service in retaliation for assassination plot against ex-president George Bush.
1994
Oct. 7: Iraqi troops move toward Kuwait, then pull back when U.S. sends carrier group, warplanes and 54,000 troops.
1996
March-June: Iraq denies UN weapons inspectors access to military sites.
Sept. 3: In Operation Desert Strike, 58 cruise missiles are fired at Iraqi anti- missile sites for Iraq's incursion into the northern Kurdish "safe haven."
1997
October to November 1998: As Iraq and the U.S. clashed over Iraq's refusal to allow UN inspectors full access to suspected deadly weapons sites, the Pentagon began Operation Desert Thunder. U.S. masses warships, planes and 13,000 troops in the region to punctuate its insistence that Iraq allow the inspectors free rein. On Halloween 1998, Saddam orders American inspectors out.
1998
Dec. 16: The Pentagon begins Operation Desert Fox, four days of air strikes against suspected Iraqi weapons sites.
2001
Feb. 15: After weeks of aggressive targeting by Iraq of U.S. planes patrolling no-fly zones, U.S. and British aircraft bomb Iraq's air defence network in first military action ordered by new President Bush.
2002
Jan. 20: Bush brands Iraq part of an "axis of evil" in his inaugural address.
July 5: Talks between UN and Iraq on resuming inspections break down.
Sept. 12: Bush makes case for war at UN.
Sept. 16: Iraq again accepts "unconditional" return of inspectors, then calls presidential compounds off limits.
Oct. 10: U.S. House votes 296-133 in support of military action against Iraq. The next day, the Senate does the same.
Nov. 8: UN approves U.S.-British resolution 1441 mandating return of inspectors and unspecified consequences if Iraq doesn't fully comply.
Nov. 18: UN weapons inspectors return to Iraq for first time in four years.
Dec. 7: Iraq presents UN with 12,000-page dossier on its weapons of mass destruction programs.
2003
Jan. 9: In first report, chief UN inspector Hans Blix says no "smoking guns" found, but calls Iraq dossier incomplete.
Feb. 5: Secretary of State Colin Powell presents UN with evidence alleging Iraq is covering up its weapons program.
Feb. 14: Blix updates UN on inspections.
March 1: Blix presents report to UN on inspections progress. Deadline for Iraq to begin destroying of al Samoud missiles.
March 11: U.S. claims Iraqi drone aircraft can spread chemical and biological agents. Iraq denies the charge.
March 17: U.S., Britain, Spain announce they won't seek a new Security Council vote on Iraq. U.S. advises UN weapons inspectors to leave Iraq.
NEW WEAPONS, TECHNOLOGY FOR GULF WAR II
If the United States goes to war with Iraq, the Pentagon is certain to premiere an array of weapons and equipment. For the military, there is no better test bed than actual combat for putting new technology through real-world paces.
WEAPON CAN ATTACK WITH ENERGY
A potentially revolutionary "directed energy" weapon, a still-secret technology the Pentagon did not officially acknowledge until last fall. Defence industry experts say the military now has the capability to manipulate microwaves to emit short energy spikes that can zap everything from computer memories and artillery targeting devices to truck ignitions and locomotive engines. Wielded by unmanned robot planes, long-distance cruise missiles or artillery, these weapons would be capable of attacking 100 targets with 1,000 pulses of destructive energy in a single sortie -- without hurting humans or damaging buildings or other infrastructure.
MOAB
One bomb to be used is the MOAB (massive ordnance air burst bomb), a huge 9,500-kg monster whose explosion is compared to a small nuclear weapon. It's designed to take out buried command centres or large numbers of tanks. It's major function, though, is to terrorize enemy forces and force surrender.
SHADOW 200 SPY PLANE
Also likely to debut with the teams is the Shadow 200 unmanned spy plane, which is designed, like the Marines' Dragon Eye, to give soldiers a real-time eye-in-the-sky. Among other things, the 350-pound, propeller-driven robo-plane can circle over hostile forces, scan the countryside for landmines or other deadly obstacles and identify targets.
VEHICLE ALLOWS QUICK STRIKE OPTION
The U.S. army's state-of-the-art Stryker Brigade Combat teams, which the service says will form the heart of the future of the army. The 3,500-soldier teams are "quick strike" outfits designed to be deployed to a global hotspot within 96 hours. The heart of the teams is the Stryker troop vehicle, the Army's vision for combining the might of its armoured tanks with the agility of a lighter infantry troop carrier. Filled with state-of-the-art equipment, the mini-tank Stryker can cruise at 100 km-h and can be dropped into a war zone, ready on landing to fight.
INSTANT TRANSLATORS
Computerized language translators, which can almost instantaneously translate Arabic, Kurdish and Farsi into English and vice versa. U.S. Special Forces commandoes will be using handheld "Phraselators," while the Army will use briefcase-sized computers to scan Iraqi documents and translate them to English. Also likely to debut is a computer designed to teach soldiers to speak Arabic or other languages.
RECON AIRCRAFT FITS IN BACKPACK
A surveillance aircraft small enough to fit in a Marine's backpack. Costing just $3,000 US each, the pint-sized Dragon Eye reconnaissance drone can travel at 40 mph, range as far as 6.5 miles and stay aloft for an hour, beaming back colour video to a screen strapped to a Marine's wrist. It can be launched by bungee cord.
Weighing four pounds and capable of assembly in about 30 seconds, the experimental aircraft would be used to scan over the horizon. The 1st Marine Division, now in the Persian Gulf, will be bringing all the prototypes of the drone the service has.
THE ATTACK: WHAT TO EXPECT
Gulf War II to be quick, brutal and unparalleled
AIR WAR
An air campaign will no doubt begin the attack, probably at night, with U.S. and British fighter jets, U.S. stealth bombers and Tomahawk cruise missiles targeting communications centres, air defences, military headquarters and barracks, presidential palaces and suspected hideouts.
American surveillance and "smart weapon" technology is far more sophisticated and reliable than in 1991. The onslaught of satellite- and laser-guided ordnance would be unrelenting so to convince Iraqi forces to surrender.
U.S. strategists have said more targets will be attacked in Baghdad on the first night than during the entire Gulf War. Saddam Hussein should witness the most intense aerial bombardment in history with a bomb exploding on his regime potentially every 45 seconds.
GROUND WAR
This may begin with or shortly after the air campaign. American and British airborne troops will drop in darkness using their night vision capabilities to secure key areas in southern, eastern and northern Iraq. The forces would move quickly to seize airfields and surround oil installations.
Because of Turkey's reluctance to allow 62,000 U.S. troops in its country, airborne and light infantry troops would be dropped into northern Iraq to seize airfields and set up forward bases for more troops and armour.
U.S., British and Australian special forces, who have been operating in Iraq for some time, would secure suspected chemical and biological sites and destroy Scud missiles.
Armour and light infantry would cross into Iraq and race to Baghdad. The objective will be to "drive straight to Baghdad," and with overwhelming forces at the city limits, wait for Saddam's regime to crumble under the pressure.
While protracted Second World War-type street fighting is the Pentagon's "nightmare scenario," analyst Francois Boo doesn't expect it. "The whole theory is that by the time the U.S. military reaches the gates of Baghdad, Saddam will have surrendered, or will be floating in the Euphrates as the result of the Iraqi people revolting."
For some time now, the U.S. has been inundating Iraq with leaflets, radio broadcasts and TV programs to reassure Iraqi civilians of the allies intentions and encourage Iraqi forces to lay down its weapons.
In what U.S. officials describe as "shock and awe," the invading force is designed for rapid dominance of the battlefield by overwhelming the Iraqi forces with fast and decisive action that will prevent civilian casualties and bring a quick end to Saddam's regime.
Time frame: 10 days.
THE DANGERS
Now, as a second war with Iraq draws closer, military analysts, lawmakers, media pundits and others again are predicting a host of perils. With the past as prologue, here is a look at some of the spotlighted dangers and the likelihood they will occur:
High U.S. casualties
The risk to GIs will depend on how the U.S. prosecutes the war. The more troops on the ground, the higher the chances of casualties. Some experts, such as Brookings Institution military analyst Michael O'Hanlon, see as many as 5,000 Americans dead.
Noting that Iraq's army is half the size and strength it was in 1991 and that U.S. weapons have improved exponentially since then, others see a far more modest toll of under 1,000. Even that may be too high if the war proceeds at the lightning speed planners intend.
Warnings also abound about the potential disaster of urban combat in Baghdad if U.S. soldiers had to fight house-to-house to wrest the city from Saddam's control. If that occurs, casualties could be steep.
Chemical or biological weapon attack
U.S. casualties could be catastrophic if poison gas or viruses are wafted at them. A parade of analysts expect Saddam to order the use of whatever such weapons of mass destruction he has, emboldened by the belief that he has nothing left to lose by doing so.
Whether his soldiers will follow that decree is unknown. U.S. propaganda beamed into Iraq is calling on the subordinates not to comply, offering rewards if they disobey such an order.
Retaliatory terror attacks and Muslim uprisings
A number of critics of war with Iraq say a U.S. invasion would be viewed as tantamount to an attack on all Arabs and Muslims. As such, it would be met with popular uprisings that would threaten stability in the Persian Gulf region, inflame the Israel-Palestine conflict and trigger more violence by al-Qaida and linked terrorist groups, particularly in the States.
The same warnings preceded the American war in Afghanistan -- and none proved correct.
Meanwhile, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries quietly are signaling their irritation at Saddam, who has long been viewed as a reckless force in the area and their grudging approval to not interfere if a U.S.-led war erupts.
Humanitarian disaster
Refugee and world hunger groups say that a U.S.-led war could wreak havoc on clean water supplies and sanitation, putting 10 million Iraqis at risk of a health and hunger pandemic. They predict more than one million Iraqi refugees, fleeing to Iran and other neighbours to escape the war.
U.S. officials say a priority is being put on leaving as much of the Iraqi infrastructure untouched as possible to avoid hardship for civilians and intends the war to be swift enough to forestall massive movements of people or a high civilian casualty toll.
Oil price inflation
Some pundits predict oil prices could balloon to $80 a gallon or higher, particularly if Saddam's oil fields are torched. But U.S. war plans include seizing Iraq's oil fields in the early hours of any war, as well as providing protection for Kuwait's fields in case Saddam seeks to replay his 1991 sabotage there. The OPEC world oil cartel has quietly promised to increase production to hold down oil prices if they begin rising.
Civil war will break out
Iraq is riven with an array of ethnic and religious groups, not to mention tribes, with competing interests and some experts believe havoc will reign if Saddam is ousted. They note Iraq has no tradition of democracy and will descend into a spiral of violence that could have dire regional consequences.
GRAPHIC: Saddam Hussein: Is his reign coming to an end?;
U.S. F-16 Fighting Falcon Top speed: Mach 2+ Max. range: 2,415 miles
Weapons: Air-to-air combat and air-to-surface attack munitions;
NO HUMAN CASUALTIES: The e-bomb can be delivered by artillery, or manned or unmanned aircraft.;
BIG HITTER: The MOAB bomb is so heavy it has to be delivered to its target by being pushed from a C-130 transport plane.;
DARKNESS: U.S. and allied troops will use night vision capabilities to quickly neutralize Iraqi targets. Associated Press photo: Bruce Adams
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