Reuters March 13, 2003
Afghan war offers useful experience to Iraq campaign
By Jane Macartney, Asian Diplomatic Correspondent
SINGAPORE, March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. special forces galloping on horseback across the battlefield is not a sight likely to be seen in an Iraq war. But other unusual tactics used in the Afghan campaign may be useful in an invasion of Iraq, analysts say.
Afghan allies would watch in amazement as special forces equipped with little more than a satellite phone and operating within hostile territory called in strikes on Taliban positions by precision bombs from aircraft cruising high overhead.
It was a display of technology coupled with versatility behind enemy lines that helped to lead U.S. forces and their Northern Alliance friends to the overthrow of the government that had sheltered Osama bin Laden.
Special forces were in place on the ground in Afghanistan well before the six-week aerial bombardment began. They are almost certainly already in position in Iraq, preparing for a possible war.
TAKING AWAY LESSONS
"Some of the lessons in terms of what they have learned on both military and political issues will be taken with them to Iraq," said Alan Dupont of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre of the Australian National University in Canberra.
Those special forces will be seeking to spread disarray behind the lines, to encourage uprisings in the north and south, among the Shia Muslim population in the south and the Kurds in the north, said Dupont.
They will be working to foment opposition in the cities, to try to turn the army, and possibly even the elite Republican Guard, as well as leaders close to Saddam Hussein who may decide to throw in their lot with the winning side.
"We know that the Pentagon has admitted having units in Iraq," said Francois Boo of the San Francisco [Washington] military think tank GlobalSecurity.org. "They are paving the way for conflict, gathering intelligence, contacting possible opposition.
"They are targeting and testing possible resistance and what is target worthy," said Boo.
"In Afghanistan special operations played a crucial role," said Boo. "In this one, they'll play a much more initial and supporting role."
Most analysts say an invasion of Iraq will take a very different form from the 1991 Gulf War, making use of a decade of technological advances, lessons from the last war and the experience gained in Afghanistan since late 2001.
A massive aerial bombardment will not be used to soften the enemy before the United States sends in troops but will most likely be accompanied at once by a huge and rapid advance by ground forces.
U.S. armies are likely to sweep across the deserts of Iraq, using intelligence gathered by special forces. They will not have to rely on ill-equipped warlords as they did in northern Afghanistan where special forces galloped side by side with Afghan warriors in cavalry advances against Taliban positions.
"In Afghanistan, they essentially were the ones in the thick of things," said Boo. "This war will be won by much more conventional systems and tactics."
SOME SIMILARITIES
There will be similarities, although these may be few.
"The only thing that is going to be similar is the use of air power and the U.S. has learned quite a bit over the last year and a half as to how to deploy that and those lessons will be taken with them," said Patrick Garrett, an associate at GlobalSecurity.org.
Some of those lessons may be psychological.
When U.S. planes dropped "daisy cutter" bombs on Taliban troop formations, the Afghan militia literally never knew what had hit them. They never knew that a non-nuclear weapon so powerful even existed.
The 6,750 kg (14,850 lb) Daisy Cutter -- about the size of a Volkswagen -- is pushed out of a plane and is designed to kill troops within at least 550 metres of the blast.
This time the United States is making sure that it gives maximum publicity to a new weapon whose claim to fame is that it is the most powerful conventional bomb in its arsenal.
The 9,450 kg (20,790 lb) Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) -- already nicknamed the Mother Of All Bombs -- Was tested to much fanfare this week. It spreads a flammable mist over the target, then ignites it, producing a highly destructive blast.
The Taliban didn't run away because they didn't know what to expect. The aim of U.S. publicity is to push regular Iraqi army troops to flee an enemy that has already defeated them once.
"This was tested to make sure everyone is aware they have it," said Boo of the MOAB. "The Taliban had to learn first-hand, but the Iraqis already have first-hand knowledge of U.S. firepower.
"This is a concerted effort by the U.S. to make sure that Iraq and anyone over there is well aware that opposition to the U.S. military effort can be hazardous to health."
AND WHAT AFTER VICTORY?
Analysts voiced doubts as to whether the United States would be able to ensure a post-war Iraq learnt lessons from the problems that rack Afghanistan.
"The impression is that having toppled that (Taliban) regime, there is insufficient commitment to rebuild an alternative," said Rosemary Hollis, head of Middle East studies at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London. "Therefore, one must ask: is it going to be the same in Iraq?"
"The interconnections with the surrounding countries are such that there are tremendous risks of fallout going well beyond Iraq," said Hollis. "Therefore, the task of putting it together afterwards would seem to be greater than the task was in Afghanistan."
(With additional reporting by David Brunnstrom in Islamabad)
Copyright © 2003, Reuters Limited.
