The Guardian February 06, 2003
Powell's evidence against Saddam: does it add up?
Experts find some allegations on chemicals and nuclear weapons 'striking and significant'
By Ewen MacAskill, Steven Morris, Richard Norton-Taylor, Nicholas Watt and Brian Whitaker
Missing chemicals
Powell "Saddam Hussein has never accounted for vast amounts of
chemical weaponry: 550 artillery shells with mustard gas, 30,000 empty
munitions and enough precursors to increase his stockpile to as much as
500 tons of chemical agents."
Assessment "Nothing new in that," said Gary Samore of the
International Institute for Strategic Studies. Accounting for weapons that
Iraq was known to possess - but claims to have destroyed - has been a
problem since the Unscom inspections in the 1990s. Tim Brown, senior
analyst at globalsecurity.org, agreed with Mr Powell's assessment. "The
Iraqi evidence for their destruction just doesn't fit," he said. "No one
can produce any documentation - it's as if the Iraqis were saying 'the dog
ate my homework'."
Dual-use facilities Powell "We know that Iraq has embedded key portions of its
illicit chemical weapons infrastructure within its legitimate civilian
industry. To all outward appearances the infrastructure looks like an
ordinary civilian operation. This dual-use infrastructure can turn from
clandestine to commercial and then back again. Call it ingenuous or evil
genius, but the Iraqis deliberately designed their chemical weapons
programmes to be inspected."
Assessment Mr Brown said that the Iraqis had had a dedicated
military programme, but because of international scrutiny they have had to
hide it now under civilian facilities. "The Germans did this between the
two world wars. There were thousands of inspectors in Germany then and
they found any no clear-cut evidence of the violations for several years."
Concealment of chemicals Powell "In May 2002, our satellites photographed the unusual
activity at the al-Musayyib chemical site. Another of the site taken two
months later in July shows that this previous site and other sites have
been fully bulldozed and graded. The topsoil has been removed. The Iraqis
literally removed the crust of the earth in order to conceal chemical
weapons evidence."
Assessment This part of Mr Powell's evidence left a striking
impression with our experts. "What was new and quite significant was the
before-and-after pictures of the chemical weapons bunkers, and the
pictures of what he claimed were chemical weapons leaving the Musayyib
site," Mr Samore said. Mr Brown suggested the pictures of Iraqis removing
chemical evidence from the site indicated a new facility, built since the
Unscom inspectors left in 1998, or one that had been missed during
previous inspections. "Perhaps they figured they had better clean it up,
just in case."
Weaponisation Powell "Our conservative estimate is that Iraq today has a
stockpile of between 100 and 500 tonnes of chemical weapons agent. That is
enough agent to fill 16,000 battlefield rockets. Even the low end of 100
tonnes of agent would enable Saddam Hussein to cause mass casualties
across an area nearly five times the size of Manhattan."
Assessment Mr Powell moves seamlessly from 16,000
chemical-filled battlefield weapons to wiping out an area five times the
size of Manhattan. "The Manhattan reference is obviously very sensitive
and it's playing on the subconscious fears," said Daniel Neep of the Royal
United Services Institute. "It's part of the hyperbole as much as anything
- the American domestic market is part of the target audience."
Nuclear weapons
Bomb design
Powell "Saddam Hussein already possesses two out of the three
key components needed to build a nuclear bomb. Since 1998, his efforts to
reconstitute his nuclear program have been focused on acquiring the third
and last component, sufficient fissile material to produce a nuclear
explosion. We have no indication that he has ever abandoned his nuclear
programme."
Assessment The IAEA is convinced that the nuclear programme
predates the 1990-91 Gulf war and that the entire project had been
destroyed by the time the inspectors left in 1998. Experts said Mr Powell
made a compelling case that the bomb project was still alive. The Powell
evidence, said Robert Norris, nuclear expert at the Natural Resources
Defence Council in Washington, "confirms that Saddam Hussein is trying to
reconstitute his nuclear programme. Like many others, I will have to
reconsider".
Professor Gary Milholin, director of the Wisconsin Project in
Washington, said: "What Powell said was entirely credible. The big
question on the nuclear programme is the immediacy of the threat. If it is
remote, you don't need to go to war. If it is close, you do. [IAEA chief]
El Baradei has declared the nuclear programme was eliminated. That's not
consistent with the evidence."
There is a consensus that what Mr Powell dubbed Saddam's "nuclear
mojahedin" remain a force to be reckoned with. But while Mr Powell adduced
the recent discovery of more than 2,000 pages of documents in the home of
an Iraqi nuclear scientist as evidence of an ongoing programme, the IAEA
says the documents were old. "That was from the pre-91 programme they had
declared to us. We were disturbed that the documents were in the home of
the scientist, but the substance was not significant," said the IAEA
official. But Mr Milholin said that "when you have the knowledge and a
workable design [for a nuclear bomb], you can't say you have eliminated
the programme".
Aluminium centrifuges Powell "Saddam has made repeated covert attempts to acquire
high-specification aluminum tubes from 11 different countries. These tubes
are controlled by the Nuclear Suppliers Group precisely because they can
be used as centrifuges for enriching uranium. There is controversy about
what these tubes are for. Most US experts think they are intended to serve
as rotors in centrifuges used to enrich uranium. Other experts, and the
Iraqis themselves, argue that they are really to produce the rocket bodies
for a conventional weapon, a multiple rocket launcher."
Assessment The IAEA is still investigating the aluminium tubes
issue, one of the reasons it has been pleading for more time for the
inspections. But it has given Saddam Hussein the benefit of the doubt by
stating it believes the tubes were for rockets, as Baghdad has said, and
not for centrifuges. An IAEA source conceded, however: "The tubes can be
adapted for centrifuge use."
Mr Norris said he was surprised at the quality of the disclosure on the
tubes and on the details provided on other nuclear bomb-making equipment.
"It seems these tubes can be used for other purposes than we thought."
Mr Milholin said: "Powell revealed new information on the tubes, the
changes in specification, and he indicated that there may be a nuclear
intention. He was also specific about the procurement activities. What
Powell said was extremely credible." Mr Powell linked the tubes to other
attempts to obtain high-power magnets and other equipment used in
centrifuges from firms in Russia, Slovenia, Romania, and India.
Biological weapons
Anthrax and other diseases
Powell "Iraq declared 8,500 litres of anthrax, but Unscom
estimates that Saddam Hussein could have produced 25,000 litres. He has
not verifiably accounted for even one teaspoon-full of this deadly
material. Iraq has successfully weaponised not only anthrax, but also
other biological agents, including botulinum toxin, aflatoxin and ricin.
Saddam Hussein has investigated dozens of biological agents causing
diseases such as gas gangrene, plague, typhus, tetanus, cholera, camelpox
and hemorrhagic fever, and he also has the wherewithal to develop
smallpox."
Assessment Joseph Cirincione, senior associate at
Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of
Deadly Arsenals, Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction, said the
allegations about anthrax, smallpox and camel pox had all been made
before: "Most analysts assume Saddam has some biological agents but there
is a great uncertainty on how much."
Andy Oppenheimer, a specialist on nuclear, biological and chemical
weapons at Jane's Terrorism and Security Monitor, who believes Iraq has
definitely been developing weapons, said that Mr Powell "can't show us the
smoking gun but he is showing us the deception. Iraq has some of the best
scientists in designing these, having studied abroad. They have a very
strong scientific body. People underestimate this".
He said Mr Powell may have overstated the case on anthrax and other
biological weapons. "Camelpox behaves like smallpox and you develop it
into a hybrid that is worse than smallpox. There has been a lot of
smallpox gone missing from the former Soviet Union. They could make it
into a deliverable weapon and it is highly infectious."
But a British specialist in virology, who asked to remain anonymous,
was doubtful: "We are not into realistic things here." He said that with
smallpox, eradicated in 1977, "there is a problem with growing it and
utilising them. You can't wander into the underground with a bucket of
smallpox. You have to get it into an aerosol".
Mobile production units Powell "We have firsthand descriptions of biological weapons
factories on wheels and on rails. The trucks and train cars are easily
moved and are designed to evade detection. In a matter of months, they can
produce a quantity of biological poison equal to the entire amount that
Iraq claimed to have produced in the years prior to the Gulf war. The
mobile production facilities are very few, perhaps 18 trucks that we know
of."
Assessment Joseph Cirincione said that Mr Powell's statement was
powerful but fell short of making the case for going to war. He had an
open mind on the allegations about mobile laboratories. They had been made
before but what was new was the detail and the disclosure that the
information had come from defectors. "It could be true. It would be a
disturbing development but it could be a defector eager to please." He
added: "The Iraqis admitted last weekend that they had mobile laboratories
for agricultural purposes and that they had returned one of them because
they were not satisfied with them. They could be dual-use."
Kenneth Boutin, senior arms control and disarmament researcher at the
London-based Verification Research, Training & Information Centre, was
also open-minded about the mobile vehicle allegations: "I am not a techie
but it does seem credible. That is a logical reaction to the inspectors'
success." Andy Oppenheimer was the least sceptical of the three
specialists, saying that mobile laboratories were feasible. "I think they
could have them but they would have to be fairly hardened. If you move
them around, they would stop to work."
Dispersal mechanisms Powell "Iraq has also developed ways to disperse lethal
biological agents into the water supply, into the air. Iraq had a
programme to modify aerial fuel tanks for Mirage jets. This video of an
Iraqi test flight obtained by Unscom some years ago shows an Iraqi F-1
Mirage jet aircraft. Note the spray coming from beneath the Mirage; that
is 2,000 litres of simulated anthrax that a jet is spraying."
Assessment Andy Oppenheimer said that he believed Iraq had L-29
trainer aircraft for spraying: "They have been trying everything: anything
they can get away with." But he was disappointed that Mr Powell used old
footage of the plane spraying: "That particular footage would not have
helped his case." He described the UAVs as "quite dangerous to his
neighbours. It will not bother Europe". Joseph Cirincione said there was
no way of knowing about his dispersal techniques: "We have heard all these
allegations before. The allegations about the UAVs have been made for
years." Kenneth Boutin said: "It is possible, like crop dusting, fitted
underneath the wing. It is feasible."
Missiles
Scuds
Powell "Saddam Hussein retains a covert force of up to a few
dozen Scud variant ballistic missiles with a range of 650 to 900
kilometres. We know from intelligence and Iraq's own admissions that
Iraq's alleged permitted ballistic missiles, the al-Samud II and the
al-Fatah, violate the 150-kilometer limit established by [the UN]."
Assessment Experts were unsurprised by Mr Powell's claim that
Iraq retains Scud missiles with a range of between 650-900 kilometres.
Gary Samore, editor of a recent study by the International Institute for
Strategic Studies into Iraq's weapons programme, said: "That is the
accepted range for modified scuds which date back to before the Gulf war.
As to how many there are - that is an area of debate." His remarks were
echoed by Kenneth Boutin, who blamed the uncertainty on Iraq's refusal to
prove it has destroyed its scuds. "Most experts will think that the Iraqis
have some until they identify the sites where they claim to have destroyed
their Scud missiles," he said.
Rocket engines Powell "Iraq has illegally important 380 SA-2 (ph) rocket
engines. These are likely for use in the al-Samud II (ph). Their import
was illegal. Worst of all, some of these engines were acquired as late as
December, after [the UN] passed resolution 1441."
Assessment Mr Powell is on safe ground here. Mr Boutin and Mr
Samore both pointed out that Hans Blix, the chief weapons inspector, had
made this allegation last week.
Long range ballistic missiles Powell "Iraq has programmes that are intended to produce
ballistic missiles that fly 1,000 kilometers. One programme is pursuing a
liquid fuel missile that would be able to fly more than 1,200 kilometres."
Assessment This did not come as a surprise, although the experts
questioned some of Mr Powell's allegations. Mr Boutin said that Iraq has a
history of developing long-range missiles dating back to before the last
Gulf war. "Iraq has long had an interest in missiles which would allow it
to hit western Turkey and to deliver heavier warheads to nearer targets
such as Tel Aviv," he said.
But he was sceptical of Mr Powell's claim that Iraq is attempting to
develop a long-range missile propelled by liquid fuel. He said: "I have
not heard that the Iraqis are interested in liquid fuel which has not
really been used by most states since the 1950s. It is more volatile and
takes a few hours to launch."
Britain and the United States have repeatedly made allegations about
the liquid fuel missiles, according to Mr Samore, who added that the
present programme has yet to be corroborated by the UN. Mr Samore, who
believes that Iraq is developing such a programme, said: "Previous
inspectors established that Iraq had a programme before 1991 to develop a
1,200-kilometre range missile. Iraq is keen to develop the programme again
because such missiles would give it far greater reach."
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) Powell "Iraq is now concentrating on develop ing and testing
smaller UAVs, well suited for dispensing chemical and biological weapons.
According to Iraq, its UAVs have a range of only 80 kilometres. But we
detected one of Iraq's newest UAVs in a test flight that went 500
kilometres nonstop on autopilot.
The linkages over the past 10 years between Iraq's UAV program and
biological and chemical warfare agents are of deep concern to us. Iraq
could use these small UAVs which have a wingspan of only a few metres to
deliver biological agents to its neighbours or if transported, to other
countries, including the United States."
Assessment Experts were interested, but not convinced, by Mr
Powell's claim that Iraq's UAVs can fly for 500 kilometres. Mr Samore
pointed out that the detected test flight had involved a UAV going round
in a circle.
"Just because a UAV can circle for 500 kilometres does not mean that it
can fly in a straight line for that distance. Some experts believe that
once the UAV goes beyond its 80 kilometre zone it would become unstable
and crash. He added though that it did show that Iraq was interested in
developing stable UAVs with a long range: "Whether they have succeeded, I
just do not know."
Mr Boutin agreed with Mr Powell's assertion that Iraq could like to use
its UAVs to deliver chemical and bilogical weapons. But he was sceptical
of Mr Powell's claim that they could deliver weapons as far as the US:
"Only the United States has developed aircraft with that sort of range.
But the Iraqis could maybe smuggle a UAV to, say, North Carolina and fly
it up to Washington."
Hiding rockets and launchers Powell "While we were here in this council chamber debating
Resolution 1441, we know that a missile brigade outside Baghdad was
disbursing rocket launchers and warheads containing biological warfare
agents to various locations in western Iraq. Most have been hidden in
large groves of palm trees and were to be moved every one to four weeks to
escape detection.
Assessment Such evasion was only to be expected, said Professor
Bhupendra Jasani of the department of war studies at King's College
London. "Iraq should not have such weapons - so they will want to move
them around to avoid being shown to be in violation of the UN."
But Prof Jasani, who is an expert in satellite imagery, said that
people would have to rely on Mr Powell's word because he only cited
unnamed "sources" as his evidence. Satellites would not be able to prove
Mr Powell's claims. "Satellites would be able to see that missiles are
being shifted around, but they would not be able to distinguish between
warheads with biological or chemical agents."
Terrorism
Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi Powell "Zarqawi, an associated collaborator of Osama bin Laden,
fought in the Afghan war more than a decade ago. One of his specialities
is poisons. Zarqawi travelled to Baghdad in May 2002 for medical
treatment. During this stay, nearly two dozen extremists converged on
Baghdad and established a base of operations there. These al-Qaida
affiliates have now been operating freely in the capital for more than
eight months. From his terrorist network in Iraq, Zarqawi can direct his
network in the Middle East and beyond.
Zarqawi's terrorism is not confined to the Middle East. Zarqawi and his
network have plotted terrorist actions against countries, including
France, Britain, Spain, Italy, Germany and Russia. The detainee who helped
piece this together says the plot also targeted Britain.
Later evidence, again, proved him right. When the British unearthed a
cell there just last month, one British police officer was murdered during
the disruption of the cell."
Assessment European intelligence sources last night distanced
themselves from Mr Powell's claims of the links between Zarqawi, Iraq and
terrorist cells across Europe, saying there was no hard evidence to back
them up. "It is all a question of interpretation," said one source.
Neither the police nor the security and intelligence services have
claimed any link between Iraq and the men who are in custody charged with
the alleged plot to produce ricin in London, or the stabbing incident
which led to the death of the Manchester detective constable, Stephen
Oake.
It is widely accepted that Zarqawi went to Baghdad last year, after he
was expelled from Iran, for medical treatment - his leg was amputated as
result of wounds inflicted in Afghanistan.
Mr Powell's claims on Zarqawi's history and terrorist activities appear
to have emerged from the questioning of captured detainees by US
authorities in Afghanistan, the American army prison in Guantanamo Bay in
Cuba, and elsewhere.
Last night well-placed officials in Whitehall insisted there was no
solid evidence of any link between Zarqawi and the recent spate of arrests
of supect terrorists in western Europe, let alone a link with al-Qaida.
Though they said that Zarqawi was certainly an important figure, and
had some knowledge of chemical warfare, sources with access to
intelligence say they were not aware he had even visited northeastern
Iraq. He had been travelling around the Middle East but was "not in Iraq",
a well-placed source insisted.
Ansar camp, north-east Iraq Powell "The Zarqawi network helped establish a poison and
explosive training camp in northeastern Iraq. The network is teaching its
operatives how to produce ricin and other poisons. Baghdad has an agent in
the most senior levels of the radical organization, Ansar al-Islam, that
controls this corner of Iraq. In 2000 this agent offered al-Qaida safe
haven in the region. After we swept al-Qaida from Afghanistan, some of its
members accepted this safe haven. They remain there today."
Assessment Mr Powell cited the presence of the extremist Ansar
al-Islam near the Iranian border in Iraq as further evidence of the link
between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaida. Whitehall sources suggest that though
he might have sent an agent to penetrate the group, there was all the
difference between that and being in a position to control or direct the
Ansar al-Islam group.
"Baghdad's writ genuinely does not run there," said a senior Whitehall
source who described the camp as a "little node of Islamic extremism".
Earlier this week Mullah Krekar, leader of Ansar al-Islam, said that far
from promoting links with the Iraqi regime, he wanted to see the end of
it. "I am against Saddam Hussein. I want [Iraq] to change into an Islamic
regime", he told the Guardian.
Ansar al-Islam is believed to harbour some 120 al-Qaida supporters who
have fled from Afghanistan. British intelligence agencies believe
Ansar-al-Islam has links with Chechen rebels and are trying to make
chemical weapons. Krekar denied this, adding that he had "no contacts"
with Islamist groups in Britain. He challenged the American authorities to
come up with evidence and present it to a court.
Bin Laden and Iraq Powell "In the mid-1990s, when Bin Laden was based in Sudan, an
al-Qaida source tells us that Saddam and Bin Laden reached an
understanding that al-Qaida would no longer support activities against
Baghdad. Members of both organisations have met at least eight times at
very senior levels since the early 1990s. In 1996, Bin Laden met with a
senior Iraqi intelligence official in Khartoum, and later met the director
of the Iraqi intelligence service. A senior defector says Saddam sent his
agents to Afghanistan sometime in the mid-1990s to provide training to
al-Qaida members on document forgery. From the late 1990s until 2001, the
Iraqi embassy in Pakistan played the role of liaison to the al-Qaida
organisation. Bin Laden and his top deputy in Afghanistan, deceased
al-Qaida leader Muhammad Atif, did not believe that al-Qaida labs in
Afghanistan were capable enough to manufacture chemical or biological
agents. They needed to go somewhere else. Where did they go? They went to
Iraq."
Assessment British security and intelligence sources have
consistently played down any suggestion of a direct link between the Iraqi
regime and Osama bin Laden. "Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden have
explicitly opposed any kind of alliance," a senior Whitehall source told
the Guardian. "We have not seen any clear evidence of an institutional
link."
A top-secret defence intelligence staff report, dated January 12,
states: "While there have been contacts between al-Qaida and the regime in
the past, it is assessed that any fledgling relationship foundered due to
mistrust and incompatible ideology".
The document, leaked yesterday to BBC Radio 4's Today programme, adds:
"Though training of some AQ members in Iraq may have continued, we believe
that Bin Laden views the Ba'ath as an apostate regime. His aim of
restoration of an Islamic caliphate, whose capital was Baghdad, is in
ideological conflict with present-day Iraq. In the Commons Tony Blair told
MPs yesterday: "There are unquestionably links between al-Qaida and Iraq.
It is a matter of speculation, obviously, how far those links go."
Concealment
The scientists Powell "Saddam Hussein had all Iraqi scientists warned of the
serious consequences that they and their families would face if they
revealed any sensitive information to the inspectors. They were forced to
sign documents acknowledging that divulging information is punishable by
death. Anyone who agreed to be interviewed outside Iraq would be treated
as a spy. On orders from Saddam Hussein, Iraqi officials issued a false
death certificate for one scientist, and he was sent into hiding."
Assessment Few experts were surprised at the claims that Iraq
was hiding its most important scientists. Jonathan Ban, research associate
at the Chemical and Biological Arms Institute in Washington, said: "It's
not surprising that this is happening. But Mr Powell seemed to have
specific information - for example, that decoys were used, which I've
heard before. "
Joseph Cirincione said: "The assumption probably goes against the
Iraqis. Most of us are ready to believe what Colin Powell has claimed
about the scientists being hidden but there is no concrete evidence to
back it up."
Haidar Ahmed, spokesman for the exiled opposition group the Iraqi
National Congress, said: "I don't think many people will be surprised to
hear about this. To produce weapons of mass destruction, Iraq needs
scientists. Most of them are not working voluntarily - they are forced to
do what they do. Clearly Saddam would do everything he could to make sure
they do not talk to weapons inspectors. And he would not want them to
leave the country - there have been a number of defections of scientists
and military people when that has happened."
Deception Powell "We know that Saddam Hussein has what is called 'a higher
committee for monitoring the inspections teams'. Think about that. Not to
cooperate with them, not to assist them, but to spy on them and keep them
from doing their jobs. The committee reports directly to Saddam Hussein.
It is headed by Iraq's vice president, Taha Yassin Ramadan. Its members
include Saddam Hussein's son Qusay. This committee also includes
Lieutenant General Amir al-Saadi, the Iraqi regime's primary point of
contact for [the arms inspectors]."
Assessment Experts have long suspected that Iraq has a
'concealment committee' which monitors and attempts to control the work of
the inspectors. Mr Powell's claims that it was headed by Iraq's vice
president, Taha Yassin Ramadan, and its members included Saddam Hussein's
son Qusay and Lieutenant General Amir al-Saadi came as little surprise.
Mr Samore said: "We pretty much knew that the committee existed and the
make-up of it. I don't think that was the newest or strongest part of the
presentation." Mr Oppenheimer said: "We have known that this concealment
is happening. However, the detail about who's doing what is interesting
and, for me, convincing."
Mr Powell claimed in his presentation that President Saddam's younger
son and presumed heir, Qusay, was responsible for removing weapons from
his father's palaces and hiding them.
That rang true, according to experts. Mr Oppenheimer said: "Saddam has
concealed weapons at his palaces, which are huge areas, before. It would
have made sense for his son to be in charge of removing them. I don't
think there is much new in all of this. But it is presented as a nice
package with the icing on the cake the satellite images."
Inspection sources denied that their security had been compromised.
One source at the UN's international atomic energy agency which is
carrying out the nuclear inspections, said: "It would not surprise us to
learn that we were being bugged but we've taken precautions at the UN
facilities. Rooms have been debugged and it is unlikely that the Iraqis
would know where we were going."
Expert panel Dr Ken Boutin, arms control expert Bhupendra Jasani, war studies, King's College London Gary Milholin, authority on nuclear arms proliferation Dr Robert Norris, nuclear expert Anonymous official, International Atomic Energy Agency in
Vienna Joseph Cirincione, non-proliferation expert Haidar Ahmed, of opposition Iraqi National Congress Gary Samore, International Institute for Strategic
Studies Tim Brown, GlobalSecurity.org Daniel Neep, Royal United Services Institute Jonathan Ban, chemical and biological arms expert Andy Oppenheimer , chemical and biological weapons
expert
Copyright © 2003, Guardian Newspapers Limited
Chemical
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