Newsday January 31, 2003
For U.S., Turkey Taking Its Time; Cooperation pivotal to attack on Iraq
By Matthew McAllester
MIDDLE EAST CORRESPONDENT
Ankara, Turkey - If there is to be a northern front in a war against Iraq, Turkey may have only days to decide whether to allow the United States military to use its territory as a launching pad or risk dramatically alienating its most important ally.
Today the Turkish National Security Council will meet to discuss whether Turkey should let tens of thousands of U.S. troops attack Iraq from Turkish soil. If a decision to cooperate is not made soon, Turkey may find that time has run out and the political and economic consequences could be dire, said a Western diplomat, a former Turkish defense official and other Turkish observers.
The United States would be unlikely to look favorably upon a crucial NATO ally that had essentially vetoed an entire front in an invasion of Iraq, the sources said.
"Tommy Franks said that it would be longer, costlier and bloodier if there were no northern front," said the Western diplomat, referring to the U.S. military commander in the region. "It would obviously be harmful if ... can't come from the north." Turkey finds itself in an extraordinarily awkward situation as it tries to make up its mind about its potentially pivotal role in a future war in Iraq. With Turkey's economy in worse shape than it has been for decades and opinion polls showing at least 80 percent of its public against war in Iraq, the new, moderate Islamist ruling party is extremely unenthusiastic about joining in a war against a neighboring Muslim country. A war would inevitably cause even greater damage to the economy.
But if a war is going to happen anyway, analysts, diplomats and some Turkish government officials acknowledge, Turkey's long-term interests would be better served by participating rather than sitting neutral on the sidelines.
To this end, Turkey's powerful military has been negotiating with U.S. officials for the past two weeks, and sources say the talks have produced a proposed deal that would steer billions of dollars in aid toward a cooperative Turkey.
That deal is among seven options the Turkish military is due to present to the country's National Security Council today, according to Turkish media reports, ranging from neutrality to full participation. The military is believed to favor the latter.
While both sides appear to have agreed in principle on a deal, the Turks are moving much more slowly than the Americans would like, the sources said. It would take considerable time for the U.S. military to set up in Turkey - a matter of weeks, not days - and so a last-minute "yes" would not satisfy U.S. needs, the Western diplomat said.
Slowing Turkey's decision is the requirement in its constitution that parliament approve the deployment of foreign troops on Turkish soil. With the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha approaching, and no debate on the matter even scheduled, a final decision from the parliament could come in late February. Should President George W. Bush decide that the war must start sooner than that, there would be no northern front, and Turkey could find itself dramatically on the outs with the United States.
A senior Turkish official acknowledged the tension over timing. "The American timetable does not entirely overlap with our own," the official said in an interview yesterday. "When that happens, there is an expression of unhappiness" by the Americans.
If the timing does scuttle the deal, it will be with a degree of irony: Both Turkish and Western officials privately agree that the current proposed deal would best serve both countries' long-term interests.
The senior Turkish government official said, "The package has to be flexible and responsive to various scenarios and outcomes of a war. The package will have to have several components."
It is not simply a question of big checks being deposited in government accounts in Ankara, all sides agreed. In addition to loans and unconditional grants for cash-strapped Turkey, the deal also would likely include more specific plans designed to bolster the Turkish economy and military in the long term.
Within the next two weeks, for example, Turkey is due to make the first payment to Boeing for a $1.6-billion contract for four AWACS surveillance aircraft, according to a former Turkish defense official who once procured arms for the Turkish military and still has close contacts in the defense establishment.
"They could ask for a break, seeing as Turkey is a NATO intelligence-gathering front and we share all the information with the United States," said the former official, who still works in the arms business.
Turkey's military also plans to buy 50 Cobra attack helicopters from their American manufacturers. "It would be nice if the Americans would give them off the shelf," at no cost, the former official said.
The former official also said Turkey is keen to persuade the United States to allow greater sharing of technological knowledge so that Turkey could more easily develop its own arms industry.
Turkey also wants to buy 40 American-made Predator drones, and it yearns for a missile defense system, he said. But "there's no money," he said.
Such military aid would free up funds in the Turkish budget for spending on other government services, he said.
In the civilian sector, Turkey is also likely to seek a relaxation of the conditions of a $16-billion loan package put together by the International Monetary Fund in a bid to repair Turkey's economy. And it would dearly love the United States to raise the quota of textiles that Turkish companies could export to the United States.
Finally, Turkey will want guarantees from the United States that its companies will have a major role in the reconstruction of a post-war Iraq. Given Iraq's vast oil reserves, there could be a lot of money to be made out of rebuilding the country after a potentially devastating war and 10 years of crippling economic sanctions and misgovernment by Saddam Hussein's regime.
There are recent, regional precedents to suggest that a cooperative neighbor like Turkey could benefit enormously in the aftermath of a conflict that ended with the United States running Iraq. A Turkish company, for example, won the contract to build the new U.S. Embassy in Afghanistan's capital, a tacit "thank you" from the Americans for the major role Turkish troops played in the Kabul peace-keeping force.
Similarly, British, French and U.S. companies won massive contracts in the reconstruction of Kuwait after the coalition forces drove Iraq out of the occupied country in 1991.
Turkey, as a pro-Western neighbor of Iraq, would be given a major slice of the reconstruction pie by the United States, the Western diplomat said.
If, however, Turkey opts for neutrality or is simply too late in offering to participate, it will likely find itself with an even more damaged economy and none of the post-war remedies that the United States is offering. Should Bush decide at any moment on an imminent start date for the war, Turkey could find itself cut off and plummeting into economic and political chaos.
The decision, said the Western diplomat, "can't be made overnight."
So Who's In?
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Though Turkey may consent to be a staging area for an allied invasion against Saddam Hussein, a number of other countries bordering Iraq indicated they will not.
Turkey
Considering whether to allow troops to attack from north.
Kuwait
Large invasion force of infantry, tanks and helicopters would deploy from south.
Jordan
Would allow special forces, search and rescue teams and missile batteries to operate, but not full-scale attack force.
Saudi Arabia
Would not allow invasion force. If war breaks out, airfields may be made off-limits to planes now patrolling no-fly zone.
TOE TO TOE
U.S. and allies: 45,000 troops stationed, 100,000en route
Iraq: 350,0000 troops
SOURCE: Staff reporting Periscope; GlobalSecurity.org.
Copyright © 2003, Newsday, Inc.
