Pittsburgh Post-Gazette November 17, 2002
DEFEATING IRAQ WILL REQUIRE FEWER TROOPS THIS TIME, MILITARY EXPERTS SAY
By JACK KELLY
President Bush has decided upon a battle plan for Iraq which calls for the use of 250,000 soldiers, Marines, airmen and sailors, of whom 60,000 to 80,000 -- four to six divisions -- would be ground troops, according to leaks this month to The Washington Post, The Washington Times and The New York Times.
The United States used seven Army and two Marine divisions to defeat Iraq in the Gulf War. They were supported by a British division, a French division and various Arab units. There are about 15,000 soldiers in a division. Overall, 532,000 American and 160,000 allied troops took part in the war. There are two reasons why fewer troops would be needed to defeat Saddam Hussein now, military experts say. American forces are much better, and Iraqi forces are much worse.
Retired Army Lt. Gen. William Odom, former head of the National Security Agency, estimated that only "four or five" heavy divisions would be required to defeat Saddam's forces today should if they choose to resist.
"In the late 1980s, Iraq had the world's third largest army," said John Thompson, a former Canadian army officer who heads the MacKenzie Institute, a Toronto-based think tank which studies global conflict. "They lost half of it during the Gulf War, and they've done a poor job of maintaining the remaining half. Their tanks are old and lack spare parts."
In 1991, Iraq had an army of more than a million men and 5,550 tanks. The army has shrunk to 375,000 today, with just 2,200 tanks. The effective size of the Iraqi army may be much smaller than that, because many Iraqi regular army and air force units plan might sit out a war. The defense of Saddam's regime may fall upon six Republican Guard divisions of about 10,000 men each, and four Special Republican Guard brigades of 2,500 troops each.
"Meanwhile, American forces are much better," Thompson said. "In 1991, nothing the Iraqis had could penetrate the armor of the Abrams tank. Now it is thicker. In 1991, the Iraqis couldn't hide from the Apache attack helicopter. Thanks to the Longbow, the Apache can now see farther."
The Longbow is radar that can locate and classify up to 128 potential targets in 30 seconds. Army tests indicate that the Longbow Apache is four times more lethal and seven times more survivable than the Apaches that fought in the Gulf War.
But the greatest improvement, said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney, is that today's Air Force is "10 times better" than the one that fought the Gulf War.
Thompson agreed. "Most of the bombs dropped in 1991 were iron bombs. Nearly all the bombs dropped in a second Gulf War will be smart bombs. Sensors are a lot better. Even low level commanders have their own drones," he said.
The Iraqi air force was a non-factor in the Gulf War. It is now less than a third the size it was then.
GRAPHIC:
INFORMATIONAL GRAPHIC: International Institute for Strategic Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies, GlobalSecurity.org; Steve Thomas/Post-Gazette: (Iraqi forces - then and now)
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