Boston Globe September 13, 2002
US could strike in 3 weeks, some analysts say
By Robert Schlesinger
WASHINGTON - US forces in the Persian Gulf could be ready to attack Iraq in as little as three weeks, armed with a prepositioned arsenal bolstered in recent weeks by a stealthy series of logistical movements, according to military analysts.
Those analysts point to shipments of tanks and other weaponry to supplement US equipment already in the region, a recent airstrike against a critical radar post in Iraq, and the disclosure Wednesday that the US Central Command, which directs military operations in the region, plans to move command personnel to an air base in the Persian Gulf nation of Qatar.
Analysts see the temporary transfer as significant because it will put hundreds of command staff in the potential theater of war.
''It's certainly part of an ongoing process,'' said Anthony Cordesman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. ''This is much further along than people understand. ... If I were Saddam, I would frankly start thinking to myself that I'd be very lucky if I now had 60 days until the US is ready.''
If President Bush gives the order, the required mobilization could be as short as three weeks for the smaller troop deployment under consideration at the Pentagon and no longer than two to three months for a larger invasion.
Military planners would still have to deal with a number of logistical and political issues, including negotiating agreements to fly over or use bases in neighboring countries. The upcoming Muslim holy month of Ramadan and the weather in Iraq could also be factors. But the equipment available in the region gives planners great flexibility.
''Clearly there is some initial effort to get a little more force into the region, if for no other reason than to provide a bit of insurance and a margin of safety as we conduct all this suggestive talk about war,'' said Michael O'Hanlon, a national security analyst with the Brookings Institution. But O'Hanlon said he doubts that the war preparations are irrevocable.
US forces have equipment for at least two divisions that is either in the Gulf region or could be brought there quickly, according to military specialists. A division typically has 17,000 troops, subdivided into three brigades. The Army's materiel for a heavy armored division is warehoused in Kuwait, Qatar, and on the tiny Indian Ocean atoll of Diego Garcia. Equipment for a division of Marines is stored at Diego Garcia, on a ship that travels around the Mediterranean, and on another vessel anchored near Saipan in the South Pacific.
The United States has recently beefed up those forces.
For example, the Pentagon has a longstanding plan to move equipment for three Army brigades out of Europe, because it has not been needed there since the end of the Cold War. Enough materiel for one brigade has already reached Diego Garcia, according to John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a research group that tracks troop and equipment movement. Enough for another brigade, perhaps two, is on its way to the Gulf region, in cargo ships that the US armed forces recently contracted to carry heavy equipment there.
Earlier this month, the US government contracted with commercial shipping companies to move heavy equipment, including tanks, from the United States to Kuwait for what the Pentagon described as routine exercises. It was the third such shipment in recent weeks.
Last week, Army Secretary Thomas White announced that the military had moved other equipment from Qatar to Camp Doha in Kuwait, in what he described as a routine training exercise.
While White added that the equipment had returned to Qatar, a spokesman for Army Forces Central Command told the Associated Press that the equipment has remained there, needed because the Army added roughly 2,000 soldiers in recent months, augmenting the 1,500 that were already stationed at Doha.
The military's ability to move these forces around with relatively little notice surprised some analysts. ''If they've in fact done what they've said they've done, it exceeds what I thought was possible,'' said Owen Cote Jr., associate director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Still other movements are planned. The Washington Post reported yesterday that the Marines will send to Kuwait later this month a unit trained to detect nuclear, biological, or chemical attacks, presumably the six-year old, 350-Marine strong Chemical and Biological Incident Response Force.
US Central Command plans to deploy up to 600 of its command staff from the Tampa headquarters to Qatar for a one-week exercise in November.
''It would have to be interpreted as an indicator of leaning forward in preparation for an attack,'' Pike said.
Defense officials are considering two main plans that would involve large numbers of US troops in a war against Iraq, according to published reports.
One would involve 50,000 to 70,000 troops making a direct drive straight to Baghdad, avoiding engagements with the bulk of the Iraqi army in an attempt to deliver a decisive blow to the regime and cause the military to crumble.
The second, which planners call ''Gulf War Lite,'' would involve 200,000 to 250,000 American troops in a traditional full-scale invasion of Iraq, possibly entering from bordering countries, including Kuwait, Turkey, and Jordan.
It takes more time for the military to move equipment than troops. Two or three divisions could be ready to strike Iraq from Kuwait within three weeks, sufficient forces to execute the smaller-scale attack, according to Pike and other analysts.
O'Hanlon was more skeptical. ''You need to be able to bail them out if they get into trouble, and you want to intimidate the Iraqi Army into knowing it will lose, to minimize resistance and maximize the chances that the army will itself turn on Saddam,'' he said.
One crucial unknown is whether the Pentagon would send a force of similar size from Turkey into northern Iraq, and if so, whether any equipment has been prepositioned for that purpose. That part of Turkey lacks the rail and road systems necessary to move heavy equipment.
If the administration goes with the larger-scale plan, moving all of the equipment and troops into place could take two to three months, with the initial divisions deployed to ward off a preemptive Iraqi attack.
Air power is another critical question. Aircraft carriers could provide much firepower. Air bases in Turkey, Kuwait, and Qatar could provide the balance.
While the war in Afghanistan depleted the US store of precision-guided bombs, the military earlier this year stepped up orders, so that the supply would be back up to strength by this month.
US and British jets are already enforcing no-fly zones over northern and southern Iraq and on three dozen occasions this year have struck Iraqi facilities that threatened those patrols. While that number is in line with the overall trend in recent years, the recent targets have intrigued some analysts.
Pike cited a Sept. 5 strike against a complex in western Iraq known as H-3, which stored chemical weapons at the time of the Gulf War. According to US intelligence, Iraq has developed drone aircraft capable of delivering chemical or biological weapons, and H-3 is a potential launching point for any Iraqi airstrike against Israel. Also, if the United States wished to conduct special forces operations inside western Iraq or even from Jordan, neutralizing the base probably opened a blind spot in Iraqi air defenses.
Cote speculated that the H-3 strike last week could be an attempt ''to eliminate that threat to helicopters flying around there.''
Robert Schlesinger can be reached at schlesinger@globe.com.
This story ran on page A35 of the Boston Globe on 9/13/2002.
© Copyright 2002 Globe Newspaper Company.
