Associated Press August 6, 2002
U.S. covert action against Saddam would be dicey prospect, experts say
JOHN J. LUMPKIN
WASHINGTON (AP) - To oust Saddam Hussein by covert means, the United States would have to rely on defecting Iraqi generals or Kurdish insurgents to defeat loyalist Iraqi military units, yet neither alternative is an appealing choice, say former CIA officials and other experts.
Saddam's internal security machine is so effective that it is unlikely any current generals could be brought to the U.S. side, analysts say. And rebel forces are too weak to defeat Saddam loyalists on their own.
A defecting general who can muster his entire unit - preferably a full division or more of Iraqi troops - would be the ideal candidate for recruitment, the former officials said, although any single division would be vastly outnumbered.
A fully loaded Iraqi division has 12,000 to 14,000 troops and Iraq's military has 350,000 to 400,000 troops arrayed around the country.
Iraqi troops who are turned to the U.S. side could work in concert with U.S. forces to capture key command-and-control points, persuade other units to defect, and perhaps find and catch the Iraqi president.
"The internal Iraqi defectors - certainly those that are active-duty military - can be critical," said retired Rear Admiral Stephen Baker, a former naval operations chief for U.S. Central Command, which is in charge of units fighting Iraq. "They would be worth their weight in platinum."
But it is doubtful any generals would turn on Saddam.
"The generals are a hard nut to crack," said John Gannon, a former deputy director for intelligence at the CIA. "To get (Saddam) with covert action is going to be very, very hard."
Saddam's penchant for executing military leaders he considers a threat is part of the problem, U.S. intelligence officials say. If he hears of a potential defector among his top military commanders, it's unlikely that commander would survive long.
"No one currently inside is willing to act against Saddam because they are terrified they will betrayed," said Vince Cannistraro, a former CIA counterterrorism chief with experience in the Middle East. "There is such an aura of fear and repression in that country. It is very unrealistic to think their military is going to join against him - until they see his dead body."
Instead of working with specific military leaders and risking their lives, a better bet for the United States may be to simply create an atmosphere in the Iraqi military that promotes surrendering or defecting once the U.S. military moves in, experts said.
"If you can at least get a group (of Iraqi troops) ready to surrender when the U.S. military starts moving in, you could limit the bloodshed," Cannistraro said.
The U.S. government says Saddam continues to develop chemical and biological weapons and should be removed from power. But U.S. allies have criticized the idea of new military offensives against Iraq, so getting Iraqis to overthrow their own leader becomes more attractive.
U.S. President George W. Bush signed an order earlier this year directing the CIA to increase support to Iraqi opposition groups and allowing possible use of CIA and military special forces teams against Saddam. The CIA has declined comment.
But few experts believe U.S. support of rebels will be enough to remove Saddam from power, and say military intervention will be necessary.
The Kurds, the long-repressed ethnic group in Iraq's northern reaches, are another candidate for U.S. support against Saddam. They can field some fighting forces, but aren't considered able to defeat Saddam's army alone.
Moreover, the two main Kurdish insurgent groups oppose each other, and neither regards the United States as reliable. The feeling is mutual from the U.S. side, Gannon said.
Nor is it clear if the Kurds want to fight. They are prospering under the umbrella of U.S. and British fighter jets that patrol northern Iraq, enforcing the no-fly zone set up to prevent Saddam from using his air power against the Kurds after the 1991 Gulf War.
"The Kurds have their own state in all but name," Cannistraro said. "They would put all that at risk if they joined in anything. It's fair to say the Kurds are hedging their bets."
Nevertheless, Kurdish leaders are meeting with U.S. State Department and other officials to discuss overthrowing Saddam.
Another opposition group, the Iran-backed Shi'ite Muslims in southern Iraq, conducts some guerrilla operations against Saddam, but the Iraqi military destroyed most of their strength in the 1990s.
While the other fractious opposition groups outside of Iraq - most of them exiled military officers - may be more willing to take on Saddam, they aren't considered able to muster fighting forces. Their best role may be as contacts for military officers still in Iraq who can be turned.
Iraq's military has 350,000 to 400,000 troops, arrayed to fight rebels, defend against Iran and other neighbours and protect President Saddam Hussein:
-Northern Iraq: The Iraqi army's 1st Corps is headquartered at Kirkuk and the 5th Corps is at Mosul. These units defend against Kurdish rebels and Syria. An Iraqi corps may have 30,000 to 50,000 troops. The better-equipped Iraqi Republican Guard's northern corps also operates in this region and defends the outer reaches of Baghdad.
-Eastern Iraq: The army's 2nd Corps is based in Deyala, northeast of Baghdad. This unit defends against Iran and opposes the Iranian-backed Shiite rebels who operate in the region.
-Southern Iraq: The army's 3rd and 4th Corps are based southeast of Baghdad and are positioned to fight Iran, Shiite rebels and U.S. troops coming in from Kuwait or Iraq's small coastal region. The Republican Guard's southern corps is also spread around this region.
-Baghdad: A Special Republican Guard, which can muster up to 25,000 troops in an emergency, protects the city and Saddam.
Sources: Anthony Cordesman, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Jane's; GlobalSecurity.org; Periscope.
© Copyright 2002 The Associated Press
