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US announces land strikes to start 'very soon'; analysts warn of war risk but see path to talks

Global Times

By Deng Xiaoci Published: Dec 03, 2025 12:14 PM

Less than a week after he threatened to carry out strikes to deter what the US calls "Venezuelan drug traffickers" in his Thanksgiving remarks, US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday local time US ground strikes in the Caribbean targeting traffickers in the Caribbean "very soon."

The renewed threats came amid intensified tensions between the US and Venezuela marked by an increasing US military buildup in the region and a recent direct diplomatic ultimatum against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and it showcased that the said series of tough approaches has failed to achieve the US ultimate goal of a regime change in the South American country, and the risks of armed conflict or war are on the rise by the hour, warned some Chinese analysts reached by the Global Times on Wednesday.

CBS News reported that President Trump said Tuesday his administration could attack accused drug traffickers who traverse Latin America by land "very soon," and such a development would mark an escalation in the US military's campaign of lethal strikes on alleged drug boats.

"We're going to start doing those strikes on land, too," Trump told reporters during a Cabinet meeting when asked about the administration's strikes at sea, according to CBS News. However, Trump did not definitively say when or where any possible strikes might take place, the report said.

According to Xinhua News Agency on Wednesday, in his Thanksgiving remarks to US troops on Thursday night, Trump thanked the Air Force's 7th Bomb Wing for its work to "deter Venezuelan drug traffickers," while announcing, "It's about 85 percent stopped by sea... and we'll be starting to stop them by land." "Also, the land is easier, but that's going to start very soon," Trump said from his Mar-a-Lago estate.

The Trump administration's intentions might go far beyond the "regime change." At the core, they are about reasserting the practical authority of the Monroe Doctrine — the unchallenged hegemonic status of the US in Latin America, Li Haidong, a professor at China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

By turning the targeted country, Venezuela in this case, into a "sacrificial flag" and a "warning beacon," Washington seeks to create a domino effect that will compel other Latin American nations to submit obediently and follow Washington's lead in their relations with the US. This strategic design has already become crystal clear, he explained.

However, Pan Deng, director of the Latin American and Caribbean Region Law Centre at the China University of Political Science and Law, said the repeated ground strike threats yet indefinite timeframe might suggest there are concerns on the Trump administration's side and the exchange of threats and hardline rhetoric might also be bargaining chips for future negotiations.

Any outbreak of large-scale armed conflict in Venezuela's major cities would likely trigger a massive new wave of Venezuelan migrants heading toward the US - a scenario that directly contradicts the Trump administration's hardline immigration stance and Trump's repeated campaign promise to seal the southern border, Pan said.

Furthermore, Maduro's forces have spent years preparing for urban and asymmetric warfare. Should fighting erupt, the conflict risks turning into a protracted, Vietnam-style quagmire - a prolonged war that would play to the political advantage of Democrats in next year's midterm elections while eroding Republican support, he added.

It could also rekindle painful collective memories of US interventionism across Latin American and South American countries, potentially swaying the votes of Latino voters inside the US, the expert noted.

Since September 2, the Pentagon has carried out at least 21 strikes on alleged drug vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean, killing at least 83 people aboard, Xinhua reported.

In the past months, Washington has deployed around a dozen warships, including the USS Gerald R. Ford, a major aircraft carrier, and about 15,000 troops to the Caribbean Sea, which shares a significant amount of coastline with Venezuela. The region has not seen such a massive US military presence for at least three decades.

Critics, including multiple lawmakers at the US Capitol, have questioned whether counternarcotics is indeed the only US motive and the legality of US military strikes in the Caribbean for months.

CNN on Tuesday published a report titled "Trump is threatening to attack a country with more oil than Iraq," asserting that "the US appears ready for war with Venezuela, a prospect that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro this weekend attributed to America's desire to control the country's vast oil reserves."

Whatever the rationale behind the rapidly intensifying situation in the Caribbean, if regime change is coming to Venezuela, the largest proven oil reserves on Earth will play a significant role in the country's future, according to CNN analysis.

Venezuela is sitting on a massive 303 billion barrels' worth of crude - about a fifth of the world's global reserves, according to the US Energy Information Administration. It is the planet's single-largest known mass of crude oil.

Maduro has denied having any ties to the drug trade and has accused the US of "fabricating" a war aimed at regime change in his country, Xinhua reported.

The South American country's leader has repeated calls for peace and pledged "absolute loyalty" to his people at a rally attended by thousands in the country's capital -Caracas on Monday local time, media reported.

Maduro, addressing a crowd waving Venezuelan flags outside the Miraflores Palace, said his country wanted peace, but only a peace "with sovereignty, equality and freedom."

"We do not want a slave's peace, nor the peace of colonies! Colony, never! Slaves, never!" he said.

Some observers remain cautiously optimistic that the crisis can still be defused through negotiations, noting that the Trump administration has consistently prioritized tangible national interests over open warfare and that Trump has long sought to cultivate an image as a deal-making peacemaker rather than a warmonger.

The US has formally designated Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization from November 24, imposing sanctions on its members, including Maduro and other high-ranking officials. Commenting on the development, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning remarked at a regular press conference on November 28 that China opposes unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law or authorization of the UN Security Council and the interference of external forces in Venezuela's internal affairs under any pretext. We call on the US side to lift the illicit unilateral sanctions and choose the course of action that is conducive to peace, stability and development in Latin America and the Caribbean region.