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Analysis: The 'Unthinkable' in Afghanistan

Council on Foreign Relations

October 23, 2008
Author: Greg Bruno

When the U.S.-backed Northern Alliance drove the Taliban from Kabul in late 2001, the idea of talking with the Taliban was unthinkable. Victory would be non-negotiable, then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld declared a month into the campaign. But seven years later, reports have emerged of talks under Saudi auspices (NYT) between representatives of President Hamid Karzai's embattled government and the Taliban and other rivals (The Independent). Karzai has repeatedly called on militants, including Taliban chief Mullah Omar, to lay down arms and help "rebuild their country" (VOA). Senior Taliban officials, meanwhile, have expressed a willingness to negotiate with military leaders in Pakistan (Quqnoos), suggesting there may be an opening for a non-military solution.

The sudden emergence of a diplomatic dialogue illustrates just how far the U.S.-led war effort in Afghanistan has deteriorated, some experts say. Violence in and around Kabul is at record highs (PDF), corruption is rampant, and pessimism is mounting (Economist). A still-classified U.S. intelligence assessment of the situation says Afghanistan is in a "downward spiral" (NYT) fueled by drug money and a weak central government. David Davis, a conservative British parliamentarian, returned from a ten-day fact-finding trip and declared that without a new strategy, the international coalition will "face disaster" (The Independent).

Amid the criticism the Bush administration has ordered a review of its efforts in Afghanistan, looking to answer basic questions-What is the objective? What can the U.S. achieve? (WashPost)-as it searches for a new way forward. President Bush has already announced an increase in troops to Afghanistan, though some senior U.S. commanders, including the commander of NATO forces there, want more (CNN). Both men seeking the White House also want higher troop deployments there.

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Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.