NIC - Mapping the Global Future

Mapping the Global Future

Global Trends
2015

Contents

Executive Summary

Document Title: Mapping the Global Future

Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project

Based on Consultations With Nongovernmental Experts
Around the World

NIC 2004-13
December 2004
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(GPO stock number 041-015-0024-6) (6.69 MB)

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Contents			Page

	Executive Summary		9

	Methodology		19

	Introduction		25

	The Contradictions of Globalization		27
		An Expanding and Integrating Global Economy	29
		The Technology Revolution	34
		Lingering Social Inequalities	37
		*Fictional Scenario: Davos World*	40

	Rising Powers: The Changing Geopolitical Landscape		47
		Rising Asia	48
		Other Rising States?	51
		The “Aging” Powers	56
		Growing Demands for Energy	59
		US Unipolarity—How Long Can It Last?	63
		Fictional Scenario: Pax Americana	64

	New Challenges to Governance		73
		Halting Progress on Democratization	73
		Identity Politics	79
		*Fictional Scenario: A New Caliphate*	83

	Pervasive Insecurity		93
		Transmuting International Terrorism	93
		Intensifying Internal Conflicts	97
		Rising Powers: Tinder for Conflict?	98
		The WMD Factor	100
		*Fictional Scenario: Cycle of Fear*	104

	Policy Implications		111

*Graphics and Tables*
	China’s and India’s Per Capita GDPs Rising Against US	31
	When China’s and India’s GDPs Would Exceed Today’s Rich Countries	32
	Telescoping the Population of the World to 2020	48
	China’s Rise	50
	Projected Rise in Defense Spending, 2003–2025	51
	Fossil Fuels Will Continue to Dominate in 2020	59
	An Expanding European Union	60
	Number of Religious Adherents, 1900–2025	80
	Key Areas of Radical Islamic Activities Since 1992	82
	EU: Estimated and Projected Ratios of Muslims to Ethnic Europeans, 1985-2025	83
	Global Trends in Internal Conflict, 1990-2003	101

*Special Topics*
	The 2020 Global Landscape	8
	Mapping the Global Future	26
	What Would an Asian Face on Globalization Look Like?	28
	What Could Derail Globalization?	30
	Biotechnology: Panacea and Weapon	36
	The Status of Women in 2020	38
	Risks to Chinese Economic Growth	52
	India vs. China: Long-Term Prospects	53
	Asia: The Cockpit for Global Change?	55
	Global Aging and Migration	58
	Could Europe Become A Superpower?	61
	The Geopolitics of Gas	62
	Eurasian Countries: Going Their Separate Ways?	74
	Climate Change and Its Implications Through 2020	76
	Latin America in 2020: Will Globalization Cause the Region to Split?	78
	Organized Crime	96
	Cyber Warfare?	97
	How Can Sub-Saharan Africa Move Forward?	99
	International Institutions in Crisis	102
	The Rules of War: Entering “No Man’s Land”	103
	Post-Combat Environments Pose the Biggest Challenge	104
	Is the United States’ Technological Prowess at Risk?	112
	How the World Sees the United States	114

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