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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=7/6/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=PUTIN'S SLOW-STARTING REFORMS
NUMBER=5-46619
BYLINE=BARRY WOOD
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
INTRO:  It's been 100 days since Vladimir Putin 
assumed the Russian presidency promising far-reaching 
economic reform including a campaign against 
corruption, a fairer tax system, and secure property 
rights. With the Russian economy now growing swiftly 
for the first time since communism collapsed a decade 
ago, V-O-A's Barry Wood reports the much-touted 
reforms read well on paper but have been slow to be 
implemented.
TEXT:  For energy economist Matthew Sagers (of 
Washington's Planecon consultancy) the tripling in oil 
prices over the past 18 months have triggered a boom 
in the Russian economy.
            //Sagers act//
      The Russian economy is going just gang-busters 
      here in the first half of 2000. Industrial 
      output is way up, g-d-p is way up. And so 
      besides the multiplier effect from higher oil 
      prices-and what it means for tax revenues, 
      revenues for companies, and incomes, it also 
      seems to be playing a major role in sustaining 
      the economy.
            //end act//
Oil and gas are Russia's primary exports and the boom 
in the energy sector translates into rising foreign 
exchange reserves and an overall boost to the economy. 
Russia is expected to register solid five percent 
growth this year.
John Hardt, a Russia specialist at the Congressional 
Research Service, is sceptical that oil prices will 
remain at their current high level. He believes that 
to assure long-term economic growth Mr. Putin has to 
put substantive reforms in place.
            //Hardt act//
      My sense is that he has a number of ingredients 
      underway which seem to be headed in the right 
      direction. Reform of the tax policy, an approach 
      to monetary reform, a willingness to address the 
      administrative system, to change the rules of 
      the game-to make it more competitive and to 
      change the corruption prone environment, are all 
      admirable and understandable goals. But it 
      remains to be seen if this can be carried out 
      consistently and whether or not he can maintain 
      the degree of broad support he now has in the 
      Duma.
            //end act//
Mr. Hardt is encouraged by parliament's preliminary 
approval of the government's economic program. 
However, specific measures concerning tax policy and 
enterprise restructuring will not be implemented until 
September at the earliest.
Janine Wedel, a professor at George Washinton 
University who has written extensively on corruption 
in Russia, anticipates no great changes in Russia's 
overall approach to the rule of law. 
            //Wedel act//
      My suspicion would be that he is under pressure 
      to demonstrate both for domestic and 
      international consumption that he is interested 
      in the rule of law and must therefore pay lip 
      service to this rather vague notion of the rule 
      of law. But I think it definitely remains to be 
      seen whether he is interested in helping to 
      create institutions that will establish property 
      rights, shareholder rights and the kinds of 
      institutions that are associated with building 
      the rule of law where fair transactions can take 
      place.
            //end act//
But purely on economic grounds the early results of 
the Putin presidency have been positive. Inflation 
seems to be under control. Tax revenues are up. Russia 
is keeping current on its debt payments to the 
International Monetary Fund. And the I-M-F and World 
Bank are sending missions to Moscow this month to 
discuss new lending programs. 
U-S Treasury Secretary Larry Summers this week 
welcomed Russia's healthier budget and rising 
reserves. But he said the substantial improvement in 
Russia's economy can't be sustained without 
establishing the rule of law and enforceable property 
rights. (Signed)  
NEB/BDW/ENE/PT 
06-Jul-2000 16:17 PM EDT (06-Jul-2000 2017 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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