DATE=6/2/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=RUSSIA / U-S / ISSUES
NUMBER=5-46432
BYLINE=PETER HEINLEIN
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: The third leg of President Clinton's European
tour takes him to Moscow (late Saturday) for three
days of meetings with Russia's new president, Vladimir
Putin. V-O-A's Peter Heinlein, in Moscow, reports a
flurry of last-minute negotiations has renewed hopes
that a widely-predicted deadlock on arms control may
be overcome.
TEXT: When President Clinton's visit to Moscow was in
the planning stage earlier this year, there was talk
of a grand arms-control compromise. Strategists
dreamed of a deal in which Russia's new leadership
would overcome objections from hard-liners and agree
to amend the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
The Clinton administration wants changes in the A-B-M
treaty to allow deployment of a limited nuclear
missile defense shield.
In return, the thinking went, the United States would
agree to a START-3 arms treaty that would cut each
sides' nuclear arsenal to as little as 15-hundred
warheads. Such a deal would allow Russia to maintain
nuclear parity with the United States, at a time when
the Kremlin is hard-pressed to find the cash needed to
replace its aging arsenal.
But as the bargaining process went forward, it quickly
became clear that Russia's generals consider the A-B-M
treaty sacred--the cornerstone of the entire arms-
control process.
So when a senior U-S official briefed reporters in
Moscow last week, he reacted defensively to
suggestions that the Clinton/Putin meetings would be
dominated by arms-control issues.
The U-S official (who asked not to be identified) said
President Clinton will also voice Washington's
concerns about Russia's brutal war against Muslim
rebels in Chechnya.
/// OPT /// Analyst Dmitry Trenin of the Moscow
Carnegie Center, however, says President Putin intends
to firmly rebuff U-S criticisms.
/// TRENIN ACT ///
He will say he understands enough about Islamic
fundamentalism and extremism and press freedoms. He
doesn't need lectures from Mr. Clinton. He will say
what he's doing in Chechnya is in fact a part of a
struggle to preserve civilization against terrorism.
On press freedoms, he will assure Clinton that he
doesn't mean to stifle press freedom, and that will be
the end of the conversation.
/// END ACT /// /// END OPT ///
Mr. Putin, too, will have a long list of discussion
topics, very different from Mr. Clinton's. The
Russian agenda revolves mostly around security issues,
including concerns about plans for further expansion
of NATO.
/// BEGIN OPT ///
Anatoly Utkin, an adviser to Russia's parliament on
defense issues, says Russia feels humiliated at seeing
former Warsaw Pact allies admitted to NATO -- and
hearing talk of further expansion by the Western
alliance into former Soviet republics -- le Moscow is
excluded from membership.
/// UTKIN ACT ///
The first question, which is always asked by
Russians, is, if you are going to include more
and more [of] our allies into the military
alliance to which we are excluded. So, would
you like not to be invited to the party in your
community with all your neighbors to be invited?
What would be your feeling? So this is the
feeling of Russia today.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Utkin predicts that behind the smiles and
handshakes coming from the summit, Mr. Putin will
prove a much tougher negotiating partner than his
predecessor, Boris Yeltsin.
/// END OPT ///
At the same time, the Russian leader is young,
relatively inexperienced, and has been in office only
a short time. Analyst Victor Kremenyuk of Moscow's
U-S-A/Canada institute says Mr. Putin can still be won
over if President Clinton makes a persuasive case.
/// KREMENYUK ACT ///
He thinks we should be flexible. So from this
point of view, we should not be [acting] any
more [like a] Soviet power and [using the]
"nyet" of Mr. [Former Soviet Foreign Minister
Andrei] Gromyko, who said "nyet" to everything.
So it's a very delicate balance between
innovation in the Russian foreign relations and
elements of conservatism.
/// END ACT ///
The Clinton administration appears to be banking on
its persuasive abilities. On the eve of the
president's arrival, Moscow was abuzz with word that
Russia might be prepared to make a counter-proposal on
the A-B-M issue.
Alexander Golts, defense analyst with the weekly
"Itogi" newsmagazine, says the main reason for
optimism is that, despite its frustrations, Russia
desperately needs a START-3 deal.
/// 1ST GOLTS ACT ///
There are a lot of reasonable reasons for new
Russian-American deals in arms reductions for
Russia. It is absolutely clear that the number
of Russian nuclear warheads will be reduced
dramatically, with or without START-3. By 2008,
we will not have a few thousand but several
hundred warheads, all because of financial
problems.
/// END ACT ///
/// OPT /// Mr. Golts says a last-minute flurry of
negotiations between Deputy Secretary of State Strobe
Talbott and his Russian counterpart is a positive
sign.
/// 2ND GOLTS ACT ///
I cannot give you evidence. If you speak with
any Russian general, he will be as tough as he
can, but, you see, there is something in the air
in Moscow, that these two men can surprise us.
/// END ACT /// /// END OPT ///
The Kremlin counterproposal on A-B-M apparently calls
for including Russia and Europe in the planned U-S
nuclear missile shield, effectively sharing the
technology for knocking down incoming missiles.
The idea is not new, but has not been on the
bargaining table in the recent round of discussions.
Analysts say, however, that the proposal could form
the basis of the grand compromise the White House had
hoped for in the early stages of summit planning.
(Signed)
NEB/PFH/GE/WTW
02-Jun-2000 12:51 PM EDT (02-Jun-2000 1651 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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