DATE=5/24/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=RUSSIA AND CENTRAL ASIA
NUMBER=5-46368
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Reasserting Moscow's authority, President
Vladimir Putin has begun a drive to restore Russian
influence in Central Asia. That is generally welcomed
by the autocratic, ex-Communist leaders of the region
who are tired of Western lectures on democracy and
fear the spread of radical Islam. There is even talk
of a Russian military attack on Afghanistan, 11 years
after Moscow's humiliating retreat from a war that
helped topple the Soviet empire. V-O-A's Ed Warner
reports on this more forceful Russian policy in
Central Asia.
TEXT: "A threat to Uzbekistan is a threat to Russia,"
President Putin said recently, after signing a series
of agreements on military cooperation with Uzbek
President Islam Karimov. In turn, President Karimov
declared: "A nation like Uzbekistan is not in a
position to defend itself. This protection we seek
from Russia."
That meeting of minds signifies a revival of Russia
power in Central Asia, according to analysts at the
Washington-based Jamestown Foundation. President
Karimov, in particular, is alarmed by the spread of
Islamic fundamentalism, the only genuine opposition in
the region's autocratic countries. Russia is equally
concerned about fervent Islamists joining their fellow
Muslims in the war in Chechnya, and the risk of that
conflict spreading to the rest of the northern
Caucasus.
To that end, Moscow is stepping up its aid to anti-
Taleban forces in northern Afghanistan and making more
ominous threats, says Leila Helms, a close observer
and supporter of the Taleban who control most of
Afghanistan:
/// 1st HELMS ACT ///
Over the past few weeks, Russian officials at
various conferences and press occasions have
been basically indicating that they might
conduct missile strikes against Afghan
positions. The Russians are using the Chechen
rebels as an excuse to try to intimidate
Afghanistan. There is no proof that the
Chechens are being trained in Afghanistan or
that there is any association. But this is a
convenient excuse to conduct missile strikes
against Afghanistan.
/// END ACT ///
Russia has some grounds for worry, says Thomas
Gouttierre, director of the Center for Afghanistan
Studies at the University of Nebraska. Islamists
trained at bases in Afghanistan are joining the battle
in Chechnya, though they may not be Afghans:
/// 1st GOUTTIERRE ACT ///
I think what we have here are individuals who
have been trained within Afghanistan, at the
bases that Osama bin Laden runs, and who go out
from there and fight either in Kashmir or in
Central Asia in the Fergana Valley or, as the
Russian are alleging, in Chechnya. But you have
to remember that the Talebs themselves are
fighting a very, very crucial war of their own
in Afghanistan, and I cannot really see them
freeing up people to go off fighting in
Chechnya. It is not a common Afghan trait, in
any case.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Gouttierre says it is hard to tell where the
Islamist recruits come from, given the fluid borders
in the region.
Leila Helms says accusing Afghans of fighting in
Chechnya gives Russia an excuse for attacking the
country:
/// 2ND HELMS ACT ///
Essentially, there is not really a threat of
Islamic fundamentalism from Afghanistan, because
the Taleban is a very indigenous, traditional
Afghan movement, and they have always
consistently said that they are not interested
in moving into the Central Asian countries,
either ideologically or militarily.
Fundamentalism is being thrown up as an excuse
for trying to isolate the Taleban.
/// END ACT ///
But Mr. Gouttierre says the prolonged war in Chechnya
is leading to the regional Islamist movement Russia
fears:
/// 2ND GOUTTIERRE ACT ///
The Islamic world has become alarmed at the war
that has been ongoing there, the setbacks the
Chechens have faced, and now sees an opportunity
to provide assistance to the Chechens. In that
type of situation, we are likely to hear that
more and more people are coming to the
assistance of the Chechens. In a sense,
Chechnya today is what Afghanistan was in the
`80's, to those who believe that they must help
their Muslim brothers.
/// END ACT ///
Russia is currently providing aid to the forces in
northern Afghanistan still fighting the Taleban. But
Russians are divided on the wisdom of more direct
military involvement.
/// REST OPT ///
Mr. Goutierre says some Russians continue to defend
their invasion of Afghanistan:
/// 3RD GOUTTIERRE ACT //
There are a lot of people who still have a kind
of scar in their political psyche for having
failed in Afghanistan, to the degree that they
did, and to the degree that it also brought down
the Soviet empire. It gives them a chance to
point out that they were correct in dealing with
the Afghan situation because of the extremist
elements, as they call them, in Afghanistan.
These are of course, the Talebs and Osama bin
Laden, who gained sanctuary there.
/// END ACT ///
Moscow also has important economic interests in
Central Asia, says Julia Nanay, director of the
Petroleum Finance Company, a private consulting firm
in Washington. Now that President Putin is clearly in
charge with substantial political backing, he can be
more assertive:
/// NANAY ACT ///
President Putin's regional diplomacy is going to
be conducted alongside the oil and gas interests
of Russia. He has made it clear that he wants
the political and commercial interests to align,
and he is going to place a greater emphasis on
reorienting the interests back toward Russia.
The United States is trying to make this an area
of strategic interest through pipelines, but I
think Russia is going to work hard to offset
that.
/// END ACT ///
Much depends on the Taleban, who now may frighten the
United States more than Russia does. By harboring
Osama bin Laden and continuing their harsh treatment
of their own people, especially women, they remain
estranged from the countries that can help them.
Thomas Gouttierre says some Taleban are waking up to
this and making a point of going to other countries
and receiving foreign visitors:
/// 4TH GOUTTIERRE ACT ///
I think Afghans are becoming more and more aware
of the fact that the world is passing them by
while they are embroiled in this continuing
warfare. Afghans are not extreme in the
practice of Islam. They are inherently strong
believers, but they are bothered by what they
view as religious imperialism, a form of Islam
which is not really indigenous to the Afghans.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Gouttierre says the Taleban have shown they can
survive the pressures of war, sanctions and ostracism.
Now they must show a milder face, to revive their
long-suffering country and eliminate an excuse for
Russian intervention. (Signed)
NEB/EW/WTW
24-May-2000 12:24 PM EDT (24-May-2000 1624 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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