DATE=2/1/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=RUSSIA - PUTIN POLITICS
NUMBER=5-45357
BYLINE=ANDRE DE NESNERA
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
// EDS: This is the second of two reports on Russia's
acting president, Vladimir Putin. The first, Who Is
Putin?, was issued 1/28/00 as 5-45337 //
INTRO: Acting President Vladimir Putin is the heavy
favorite to win Russia's presidential elections March
26th. In this report from Washington, former Moscow
correspondent Andre de Nesnera looks at why Mr. Putin
is so popular and asks if his presidential bid can be
derailed before the vote.
TEXT: Vladimir Putin has been acting Russian President
since December 31st, when Boris Yeltsin shocked the
world and announced his resignation. Before that, Mr.
Putin was prime minister, having been chosen for the
job by Mr. Yeltsin last August.
The 47-year-old Putin is a newcomer to the high
echelons of the Russian power structure. But many
American experts on Russia say his 17 years in the K-
G-B -- the Soviet secret police - his work as a
municipal leader in Saint Petersburg in the early `90s
and his various positions in the Kremlin bureaucracy
over the past few years, make him an ideal candidate
for President.
Bruce Johnson - from the (Indianapolis-based) "Hudson
Institute" - says Mr. Putin is a very shrewd
politician.
/// JOHNSON ACT ///
He is astute far beyond anything Russia has seen
since Stalin died and the difference is that
Putin - besides having higher motives - also
doesn't have the power of the state behind him
to impose the sort of horrible programs that
Stalin imposed. But in terms of political
skills, he makes Khruschev and many of the other
leaders since the 1950's look totally impotent.
/// END ACT ///
Analysts say a perfect example of Mr. Putin's
political skills is the recent deal he struck with the
Communist Party in Parliament's lower house, the Duma.
Mr. Putin's centrist "Unity" bloc got key committee
chairmanships in the Duma in exchange for naming a
Communist deputy - Gennady Seleznev - as speaker. The
move angered reform-minded politicians, who staged a
brief boycott of the Duma.
Ian Bremmer - head of the (New York based) "Eurasia
Group" - says Mr. Putin will have to use many of his
political skills in the months ahead if he is going to
regain the support of his one-time allies.
/// BREMMER ACT ///
He is going to have to make compromises to bring
those reformers back on board. He is going to
have to make compromises and back away from the
communists if he wants the reformers' support
and participation in the government after his
assumed election in March. And he is also going
to have to step on a lot of communist toes if he
wants the parliament to actually put forward a
lot of this new (reform-minded)legislation which
many in the Communist Party haven't supported.
/// END ACT //
Recent public opinion surveys make Mr. Putin the clear
favorite in the March 26th presidential elections.
One of the reasons for such popularity is his strong
military stance against separatists in Russia's
Caucasus region of Chechnya.
But Mike McFaul - from the (Washington-based)
"Carnegie Institute" says the Chechen military
campaign is not the only reason for his strong showing
among Russians.
/// McFAUL ACT ///
That (the Chechen campaign) was most certainly
important to launch his career. Think of it like a
rocket sending a satellite into space. The first
`booster rocket' was certainly the Chechen war. But
after that - and opinion polls show that very clearly
- he is just popular for the simple fact that he is a
new, young leader who is doing things on a lot of
fronts. For instance on the economy, people are much
more optimistic about the economy under Putin than
they were six months ago under Yeltsin. People claim
that their wages have been paid in a more prompt
fashion under Putin than under Yeltsin. So this
suggests there has been a real sea change, with a new,
young dynamic leader at the top. This is exactly what
the Russian people have been waiting for for several
years - and that is what accounts for his overwhelming
popularity right now.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Putin's overwhelming popularity prompts the
question: Can he be stopped in his quest to become
Russia's next president?
Ariel Cohen - from the (Washington-based) "Heritage
Foundation" - says one development could derail his
presidential train.
/// COHEN ACT ///
And that's a disaster in the field in Chechnya. A
military disaster that will demonstrate conclusively
that the Russian strategy in Chechnya failed, will be
a very serious blow to Putin and his popularity. But
being the shrewd politician that he is, he may then
find scapegoats in the military - as he already did,
by the way, for some serious setbacks the Russians
suffered in Grozny. /// OPT /// He fired a couple of
Generals: General Troshov and General Shamanov. So
Putin, being a shrewd guy he is, may walk away even
from a disastrous development in Chechnya. /// END OPT
///
/// END ACT ///
Many long-time analysts of Russia say the country's
history has taught them to expect the unexpected. But
in the case of Mr. Putin - right now - they say he
seems unstoppable. (Signed)
NEB/ADEN/KL
01-Feb-2000 13:26 PM EDT (01-Feb-2000 1826 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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