DATE=1/18/2000
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
TITLE=JOHN GLAD ON RUSSIA'S FUTURE (L-ONLY)
NUMBER=2-258189
BYLINE=BARRY WOOD
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Russian scholar John Glad, a former director of
the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute, spoke Tuesday at
the Wilson Center on what he sees as the coming
collapse of the Russian state. V-O-A's Barry Wood
reports.
TEXT: The crux of Mr. Glad's argument is that the
weakened Russian government will probably be unable to
maintain the unity of the Russian state. Mr. Glad
believes secessionist pressures could soon extend
beyond the Caucasus to regions like resource-rich
Yakutia which derives few economic benefits from
Moscow.
//first Glad act//
The local corrupt mafias are going to say why
should we give our money to Moscow. What does
Moscow do for us? When you get out into some of
these areas of the far-north, they haven't got
electricity or heat. And you have to say what is
Moscow doing for me?
//end act//
Croatian by birth, Mr. Glad says Yugoslavia broke
apart because relatively rich Slovenia and Croatia
were no longer willing to subsidize poorer Serbia and
Macedonia.
It is, says Mr. Glad, mainly economic reasons that
make him pessimistic about Russia.
//second Glad act//
I look at the fundamentals. I see the low
demographics. I see the disastrous economic
situation, the loss of population through
emigration, and I see a lot of neighbors who
have been historically wronged.
//end act//
Mr. Glad, a former professor of Russian Studies at the
University of Maryland, says the west should regard
stability in Russia as a main priority. He believes if
strong and wise leadership emerges in Moscow, his
argument could be proven false.
//third Glad act//
In my view, it is a salvageable situation. (But)
when you see the level of corruption, you have
to say it can't happen without the full
acquiesence of the center, from the very top.
//end act//
A frequent visitor to Russia, Professor Glad attracted
attention in the early 1980s when he similarly
predicted that the Soviet Union would collapse.
(Signed)
NEB/BDW/PT
18-Jan-2000 16:50 PM EDT (18-Jan-2000 2150 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
