cia_62995_62995_01.txt

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Subject: IRAQI BW CAPABILITY
Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence
TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN
REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN
TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF
THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON
REQUEST.
SUBJECT: IRAQI BW CAPABILITY
2.
IRAQ HAS NEVER
USED BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AND PROBABLY CONSIDERS THEM TO BE AN
IMPORTANT STRATEGIC DETERRENT OR WEAPON OF LAST RESORT. SADDAM MAY
BE RELUCTANT TO INITIATE FIRST USE OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AGAINST AN
OPPONENT CAPABLE OF RETALIATION, EVEN THOUGH HE MAY THREATEN THEIR
USE TO DETER ATTACK.
3. ANTHRAX PROBABLY WOULD BE EMPLOYED BY AIRCRAFT OR MISSILES
AGAINST STRATEGIC TARGETS BECAUSE THE AGENT'S SLOW EFFECTS LIMIT ITS
BATTLEFIELD UTILITY.
IF SADDAM
CONCLUDED HIS POSITION WAS BECOMING HOPELESS, HE MIGHT CONSIDER SUCH
AN ATTACK TO SHOCK THE COALITION INTO A CEASE-FIRE.
4. THE IRAQIS MIGHT CONSIDER THE USE OF BOTULINUM TOXIN--WHICH
CAN CAUSE EFFECTS IN AS LITTLE AS A FEW HOURS--BY AIRCRAFT OR
ARTILLERY AGAINST BATTLEFIELD TARGETS. HOWEVER, BAGHDAD HAS MORE
EXPERIENCE WITH CHEMICAL AGENTS AND PROBABLY WOULD PREFER TO USE
CHEMICAL RATHER THAN BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS TACTICALLY.
5. THE EASY TRANSPORTABILITY OF THESE AGENTS ALSO OFFERS SADDAM
THE PROSPECT OF COVERTLY DELIVERING--THROUGH TERRORIST OR SPECIAL
FORCES PERSONNEL--BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS ON TARGETS IN ALMOST ANY
COUNTRY.
7. IRAQ MAINTAINS THE MOST EXTENSIVE BIOLOGICAL WARFARE
CAPABILITY IN THE THIRD WORLD. IRAQ IS ASSESSED TO HAVE SOME
BIOLOGICAL AGENT DELIVERY CAPABILITY, AND WE ASSESS THAT THESE
WEAPONS ARE MOST IMPORTANT AS A STRATEGIC DETERRENT. THE USE OF
BIOLOGICAL AGENTS BY IRAQ WOULD PROBABLY BE FOR LARGE AREA COVERAGE
IF SADDAM HUSAYN BELIEVES HIS REGIME IS THREATENED. HOWEVER, THE USE
OF BIOLOGICAL AGENTS AGAINST MILITARY TARGETS PRIOR TO THE INITIATION
OF HOSTILITIES CANNOT BE EXCLUDED. BIOLOGICAL ATTACKS COULD BE
LAUNCHED CLANDESTINELY.
8. IRAQ HAS DEVELOPED ANTHRAX SPORES AND BOTULINUM TOXIN AS
AGENTS. WE JUDGE THAT THE IRAQIS ARE LIKELY INVESTIGATING A RANGE OF
OTHER TOXINS AND LIVE AGENTS. THE IRAQIS HAVE SHOWN INTEREST IN
DEVELOPING CLOSTRIDIUM PERFRINGENS AND MYCOTOXINS,
9. IRAQ HAS THE TECHNICAL CAPABILITY TO INCORPORATE ITS BW
AGENTS INTO A VARIETY OF WEAPONS.
CANDIDATE SYSTEM INCLUDE CLUSTER AND AERIAL BOMBS, ARTILLERY
ROCKETS, MISSILE WARHEADS, AND SPRAY SYSTEMS. BOTULINUM TOXIN CAN
CAUSE EFFECTS IN AS FEW AS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER EXPOSURE. THIS AGENT
MIGHT THEREFORE BE USED IN TACTICAL SITUATIONS.
10 WE BELIEVE IRAQ HAS THE NECESSARY TECHNICAL
EXPERTISE TO ITS BIOLOGICAL AGENTS INTO A MISSILE WARHEAD. THE
MISSILE'S POOR ACCURACY AND SMALL PAYLOAD LIMIT ITS EFFECTIVENESS FOR
DELIVERING CHEMICAL AGENTS, WHICH, UNDER OPTIMAL CONDITIONS, ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS EFFECTIVE THAN AN EQUIVALENT AMOUNT OF BIOLOGICAL
AGENT.
END OF MESSAGE
1.5(c)
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