China: Will The 20th Century Giant Become A 21st Century Superpower?
AUTHOR LCdr. S. K. Singh, Indian Navy
CSC 1988
SUBJECT AREA Foreign Policy
Executive Summary
Title : China : Will the 20th century giant become a 21st century
superpower ?
I. Purpose : The purpose of this paper is to examine if China
will become a "superpower" by the 21st century.
II. Thesis : Current indications are that China will become a
major world power by the 21st century unless certain events slow
it down. What are these factors and what effect could they have
on the country.
II: Data : While the superpower of the world are reducing
their nuclear arsenal China is quietly enhancing its already
formidable nuclear and conventional military capability. With the
world's largest population of over a billion people China already
enjoys the status of a giant on the international scene. Yet it
is not regarded as superpower because of its inability to
influence world events.
The country's tumultuous political history from the time of
the communist revolution shows how changes in leadership leads to
changes in policy and, at times, is detrimental to the country's
progress. Its relations with the United States have improved in
the last two decades but are still not warm enough. Recent
overtures made to it by the Soviet Union have yielded some
results but are also far from desirable.
IV : Conclusion : The country is going to face some delays in
achieving its goals cut whatever happens to its people is bound
to affect the destiny of mankind on Earth
CHINA: WILL THE 20th CENTURY GIANT
BECOME A 21st CENTURY SUPERPOWER?
OUTLINE
Thesis Statement : Current indications are that China will become a major
world power by the 21st century unless certain events slow it down. What
are these factors and what effect could they have on the country ?
I. Political situation
A. Last four decades
B. Current situation
C. Future outlook
2. Military situation
A. Current developments
B. Future plans
C. Export potential
3. Foreign Relations
A. Sino-America
B. Sino-Soviet
4. Conclusion
A. Influence of politics on economy
B. Military and social influences
CHINA : WILL THE 20th CENTURY GIANT
BECOME A 21st CENTURY SUPERPOWER ?
At a time when the two superpower of the world are seriously
engaged in reducing their nuclear arsenal a so-called third-world
country is quietly engaged in enhancing its already formidable
nuclear and conventional military capability. With the world's
largest population of over a billion people and also the world's
largest armed forces totalling more than four and a half million
men and women, China already enjoys the status of a giant on the
international scene.
From the time of the communist revolution in 1949 the country
has made a great deal of progress. The Chinese industry has
undergone a record growth during these years especially from
1958-72 when the average self-sufficiency in all energy forms and
has located massive petroleum deposits in Manchuria and offshore.
It's coal reserves are rated to be amongst the largest in the
world and since 1980 the country has been exporting coal and
petroleum even though its petroleum deposits have only been
superficially tapped.(11:xvii)
On the agricultural front China's progress has been equally
remarkable. It has not only achieved the capability of feeding
its vast populace but is even able to export some of the food
items that it produces. The country's hydro-electric potential is
believed to be the largest in the world and its armament industry
has developed into recognized exporter of arms and equipment.
Leading economists of the world have predicted that the Chinese
economy will be the second largest in the world by the end of the
first decade of the next century.(12:7)
Despite all these factors China is merely regarded as a giant
on the international scene and not a "superpower" due to its
inability to influence world events at large. Will this 20th
century giant merely grow into a bigger giant in the years to
come or become a "superpower" of the 21st ? Current
indications are that it will ,indeed ,achieve the status of a
superpower sometime during the 21st century unless certain events
at home and abroad slow down its progress and delay this
transformation. What are these factors and what effect could they
have on the country ?
The first and the major factor is the political set up of the
country which has undergone varying degrees of turmoil from the
time the communists seized power nearly four decades age. Nobody
realizes this more than the country's ageing statsmen Deng
Xiaoping who, during his long political career, had been ousted
and disgraced no less than three times.
When the communist government came to power in China in 1949
one of its first acts was to sign a thirty year treaty of
friendship, alliance, and mutual assistance with the Soviet
Union. This treaty gave the Communist govenment in Peking enough
confidence to enter the Korean war six months later. The war and
a mass movement against the local "bourgeois" distracted the
country's masses long enough for the government to implement its
first five year plan in 1953. This five year period from 1953-57
is regarded as the period of "transition to socialism". During
these years Soviet assistance in economic and technical spheres,
strengthened by Sino-Soviet agreements signed in 1953-54, played
a significant role in the development of the country.(11:31)
The latter part of the fifties stretching into the early
sixties is, ironically, known as the period of the "great leap
forward". This actually refers to the scheme of Mao Zedong and
the communist party to achieve spectacular progress by arousing
the masses ideologically and driving them to do their utmost for
the country. In reality, this optimistic plan did not work and
was an economic failure. It forced Mao to step down from his
position as the chairman of the People's Republic leaving other
leaders like Deng Xiaoping and Liu Shaoqi to consolidate their
positions within the party. Deng, at that time, was regarded as a
radical leftist due to his support of the anti-rightist campaign
of 1957 and the founding of the people's communes in 1958. This
new leadership changed the country's foreign policy from
"peaceful coexistence" to a "hard line". An aggressive propaganda
assault was conducted against the United States for its support of
Taiwan. The offshore islands of Quemoy and Matsu held by the
Nationalists were subjected to a massive artillery bombardment.
The Tibetan revolt of 1958 was brutally suppressed and in its
aftermath China's relations with India deteriorated as the
Chinese accused India of hardbouring the Tibetan refugees. Border
disputes between the two countries increased the bitterness
further. On the northern front, Sino-Soviet border disputes
,which had been brewing for some time, led to the termination of
a 1957 agreement between the two countries by which the Soviets
were to help the Chinese produce their own nuclear weapons and
missiles.(11:35)
In 1962 Mao Zedong, who had been sidelined after the debacle
of the "great leap forward" and had spent the previous two years
practically in semi-seclusion, decided to stage a comeback and
used his ability to arouse the masses against the "capitalist and
anti-socialist" tendencies in the country. This was the "great
cultural revolution" of the sixties which shattered the party
organization from top to bottom. With the seizure of power by men
like Lin Biao and other protagonists of Mao, Deng was removed
from all his posts and publicly humiliated.
The cultural revolution ended in 1969 but factional
infighting continued well into the seventies. In September 1971,
however, the death of Lin Biao led to a steady decrease in the
influence of the fundamentalist left wing radicals and they were
eventually purged out. The new swing to the right led to the
famous visit of President Nixon to China in February, 1972 and
the establishment of diplomatic relations with Japan later in the
same year. In April, 1973 Deng was rehabilitated by the then
Premier Zhou Enlai and appointed vice premier but three years
later, with the death of Zhou Enlai, he was ousted again. On
September 9, 1976 Mao Zedong died and the radicals lost their
major influence. Deng again managed to stage a comeback and at
the party session of 1977 he was reappointed to all the posts
that he had held prior to his dismissal ie. Vice Chairman of the
Chinese Communist party and member of the Politburo and it's
Standing Committee.
Due to his own tumultuous career Deng realizes that constant
changes in the party leadership, which generally lead to changes
in policy, hinder the country's progress. His efforts to provide
the country with a stable leadership after him have, however, not
been very successful partly due to his own liberal policies at
home and partly due to the conservatives opposition to China's
opening its "doors" to the west.
In 1975 Zhou Enlai started his four modernisations in the
fields of agriculture, industry, national defence, and science
and technology. These programmes were designed to put China in
the same league as some of the leading nations of the world like
the United States, Japan and West Germany, by the year 2000.
Although the majority of the Chinese leadership and the public
realizes that these liberal reforms have yielded substantial
results in the last eight years and that it is essential for the
country to import western technology if it is to achieve its
modernization goals,Chinese politics does not rely on the
"bourgeois concept" of democratic majorities. The desire for
power and personal likes and dislikes often take priority over
the country's needs.
Deng's desire to ensure political continuity has received a
severe blow with the forced resignation of his heir apparent, Hu
Yaobang, in January 1987. This was also a major setback for the
reformers as it allowed the conservatives, who favour a more
orthodox brand of socialism and tighter party controls, to seize
the initiative. There is widespread speculation that Hu's
dismissal was masterminded by none less that Deng himself because
of Hu's inability to implement the modernization programmes in
the spirit they were to enforced in. It is also possible that
Deng may have made Hu the scapegoat to pacify the conservatives
who had become increasingly critical of Hu along with various
aspects of these reforms. Whether the conservatives increase
their influence in time to come or are purged out by the
reformers is anybody's guess. In any case it is unlikely that the
conservatives would reverse the present liberal trend. They may,
at the most, slow down the pace of the reforms. As it is, of
late, the Chinese leadership has itself set back the year of
modernization from 2000 to 2020. At the Pac Rim conference, held
in 1986, the vice chairman of the Chinese State Planning
Commission stated that it might now take China 75 years to get
close to the well developed countries pushing the date further to
2062.(9:31)
Zhao Zhiyang, the sixty seven year old premier, who has taken
over Hu's chair as the General Secretary of the party lacks Hu's
experience in youth league organs but ha acquired a considerable
stature as a national leader. He also does not share Hu's
extensive military background but has had close ties with the
military at both the regional and the national level. The rural
reforms introduced by him as the first party secretary of the
province of Sichuan in late 1975, were so successful that they
were adopted at the national level by the third plenum of the
eleventh central committee in December, 1978. His standing with
the military is much better than Hu's who is not regarded by the
military as a strong and a stable leader. In fact, it is believed
that the military was instrumental in successfully resisting
suggestions that Hu replace Deng as the Chairman of the Central
Military Commission.
It is obvious that Zhao's major task is to consolidate his
position and tackle the conservatives. Even if he succeedes in
this difficult task eventually, the process is expected to slow
down the reforms which are in the process of implementation and
delay the introduction of new ones. (8:14). If Zhao is to leave
the premiership open there would be two candidated for the job.
These are the two vice premiers Li Peng and Tian Jiyun. Li was
educated in Moscow and is well known in Beijing but not in the
country. He is, to an extent, regarded as a conservative. Tian
Jiyun, on the other hand, is a reformer who has been a close
adviser to Zhao for the last four years and has a reputation for
far sighted efficiency. (6: 10)
The conservatives feel that it is better to be aligned to an
unfriendly communist power than to a friendly imperialistic one
and their coming to power is expected to bring in a modification
of the foreign policy in that they may lean towards the East
European countries for their requirements. The ideology of the
reformers is, perhaps, not much different. In 1980 Deng pointed
out," The infiltration of Bourgeois ideas into China is
inevitable, (but) we shall never allow the worshipping of
capitalist countries at the expense of national pride and dignity
while learning advanced technology and management skills from
them".
The second factor which is of importance and will affect
Chinese influence in world affairs is the military potential of
the Chinese armed forces. According to "The Military Balance
1985-86" published by the International Institute of Strategic
Studies, London, China's defence expenditure is estimated at $
34.5 billion which makes it the third highest in the world after
the Soviet Union and the United States. The presence of Chinese
defence firms at international arms exhibitions is becoming
increasingly noticeable. The People's Liberation Army which
celebrated its sixtieth anniversary in August, 1987 is currently
in the process of modernizing and reorganizing its 35 Field
Armies into 24 Integrated Mobile Armies.The eleven military
provinces have been reorganized into seven military regions. The
first of the newly integrated armies - the 38th - is already
deployed in the Beijing Military Region and the second in the
Shenyang Military Region.
China has been extremely successful in its rocket launching
programmes and since 1970 the Chinese have put no less than
twenty satellites into space with only two failures. The
temporary grounding of the American space programme also gave a
boost to the Chinese plans. They bagged a contract to put
Mailist, a Swedish communication satellite, into space for the
reported sum of $ 19.5 million and are believed to be negotiating
with no less than eight other countries including Great Britain,
Italy Austria, and Canada. (6:12)
The Chinese also have a considerable number of strategic long
range missiles. Of these the Dong Feng (East Wind), a solid
fuelled missile,is capable of carrying five megaton warheads over
a range of 8,078 miles (13,000 Kms.). Looking at the considerable
range of this missile it is interesting to analyze its possible
strategic employment. The army had equipped its "59" and "62"
tanks with laser rangefinders and the integrated armies are using
the 5.56 mm. similar in performance to the American M-16. The 105
mm. gun is in use alongwith the i55 mm. self propelled howitzer.
The army is also in the process of computerizing its signals
system. (6:13)
The Chinese Air Force has the second highest number of
aircraft in the world which are also in the process of
modernization. The F-6 bis fighters (MiG-19 variants) already
carry effective radar systems. The H-6 bombers (Tu-16s) are well
maintained to effectively deliver the nuclear bombs held in the
Chinese armoury. The Chinese Navy has become a blue water Navy
with nuclear submarines and missile destroyers.In addition to all
this the United States has agreed to supply the Chinese with
transport aircraft, helicopters, flight training systems, aerial
cameras, and certain types of radars as well as Tow anti-tank and
Hawk anti-aircraft missiles.
The American aid package is designed to sharpen the teeth of
the Chinese Armed Forces and force the Soviets to withdraw some
of their forces from the East Europeon border and place the on
the Sino-Soviet border where they are more expensive to maintain.
Although this package has has been carefully thought out to
prevent the use of these weapons or equipment contrary to the
interests of the United States it is very difficult to ensure it.
China is the fifth largest exporter of arms in the world after
the United Stated, Soviet Union, England and Grance. In its
desire to earn foreign exchange China is very likely to copy them
and sell them to whoever wants them irrespective of other
considerations. The use of Chinese Silkworm missiles by Iran to
disrupt the Persian Gulf shipping has no moral implications for
the Chinese. A future scenario could be the use of similar, if
not these, weapons by the North Koreans against the South
Koreans.
Although Sino-American trade reached a high mark of $ 7.3
billion last year making the United States China's third most
important trading partner the relations between the two countries
have not warmed up enough. The expulsion of "New York Times"
reporter John Burns in 1986 and two Chinese diplomats from the
United States recently is one such pointer. During the last one
year the Chinese press has devoted a great deal of its attention
to inform its readers about the shortcomings of the American
society and the American political system. On January 20, last
year the "People's Daily" described in detail how the economic
status of Blacks in America had declined over the past decade.
Taiwan remains a major thorn in Sino American relations. The
Chinese are obsessed about the reunification of Taiwan with
mainland China and have been offering a number of incentives to
engineer it. They have even decided to let Hong Kong maintain its
capitalistic profile after it reverts to them in 1997 to display
an example of their flexibility. The refusal of Taiwan to even
consider their porposals makes the Chinese feel that the United
States is not exerting enough pressure of Taiwan.
On the other hand overtures of friendship by the Soviet Union
have yielded some results. After two decades of animosity the two
countries have exchanged visits at the vice premier level.
Cultural and educational exchanges have recommenced and the
Chinese communist party has reestablished ties with its
counterparts in East European countries. Moscow is again actively
assisting the Chinese in modernizing the old Soviet style
factories which still outnumber the western or west-assisted
ones. A possible reason for this may be the fact that the present
day leadership, both within the party and the military, has been
educated at a time when the Soviet influence in China was at its
peak. Many of the top military officers of today were either
trained in the Soviet Union or in the military academies set up
under Soviet guidance.
China has refused to sign the Nuclear Non-proliferation
Treaty and its growing nuclear capability has already made it an
entity in the world's power equation. The economic reforms and
the growth rate of country, however, depends on its future
political atmosphere. A change in the country's leadership during
any time in the future may lead to a change or a reversal in the
economic or foreign policy and drastically affect the growth
rate. Even though this seems a remote likelihood at this time the
country's past history is ample proof that one cannot preclude
this possibility.
Deng has over the years reduced the role of the armed forces
in the nation's politics substantially possibly to avenge the
humiliation suffered by him during the Cultural Revolution at the
hands of the army-supported Red Guards. The modernization of the
armed forces has been given the lowest priority. A few cosmetic
changes in the form of badges of rank and new uniforms have been
made to appease the armed forces. Although the men in uniform
still maintain their high morale how long this lasts would have
to be seen. The pay and allowances of the armed forces are very
low compared to their civilian counterparts. An ordinary soldier,
in his first year of service makes an averge of $ 4.00 a month
which is just enough to gain him a single entry into any
provincial discotheque. The strength of the armed forces is being
reduced by a million in order tohave a qualitatively superior
force as opposed to the numerically superior one favoured by
"Maoist" doctrine.
The rehabilitation of these men is expected to pose a
substantial problem for the Chinese leadership. To add to this,
despite extremely strict family planning measures, the country's
population is expected to cross the two billion mark by the year
2050. The economics of employing and feeding these people and the
present fay problems of inflation and the rapidly rising cost of
living is going to be major worry of the future leaders. An
appreciation of these factors will not make it very difficult to
visualize a China of the future nurturing expansionist tendencies
and flexing its muscles to take what it needs or desires.
It is already apparent that, as the Chinese economic and
military power is increasing it is becoming more and more
involved in regional and world affairs. In December, 1985 Wu
Xuequian, the Chinese Foreign minister, stated that, "China will
not sit with arms folded if Vietnam invades Thailand, (but)
..will take forceful measures with Thailand. These "forceful
measures" have been the delivery of tank and artillery by the
Chinese to Thailand. By 1986 the Chinese had also supplied
Pakistan with eleven hundred type "59" tanks, twenty four fast
attack craft, and more than two hundred frontline fighter
aircraft (with over a hundred more on order). In Africa the
Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Somalia, Tanzania, Zaire, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe possess Chinese equipment. (2:24)
The economic problems being faced by the the Soviet Union are
expected to relegate its economy to the fourth position by the
year 2010 causing a decrease of its influence of China will
gradually change the bipolar world as it exists today. Although
this is not likely to occur till we are well into the next
century what happens to the Chinese till then is what happens to
every fourth human in the world and is surely an influene on the
distiny of mankind on the planet Earth.
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