Military

DATE=8/17/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=WAR IN DAGESTAN
NUMBER=5-44077
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO:  Russia is again at war in the Caucasus and 
predicting victory over the rebels challenging 
Moscow's authority.  Whether they will hold out as 
stubbornly in Dagestan as they did in Chechnya remains 
to be seen.  Correspondent Ed Warner provides 
contrasting views on the outlook for the war in this 
latest Russian attempt to keep its territory together.
TEXT:  From Moscow's point of view, it cannot afford 
to lose the Caucasus, the pathway to Caspian Sea oil 
and to Russian influence in the Middle East and 
Central Asia.  While Russia remains, it can block 
efforts by other powers like Turkey and Iran to become 
established in the Caucasus. 
But the area is hard to control from Moscow.  Chechnya 
has slipped from its grasp, and now rebels in Dagestan 
have declared their independence, provoking another 
armed Russian intervention.  Will it work better than 
the failed effort in Chechnya, which is now 
independent in everything but name?
International consultant Enders Wimbush, vice 
president of International Strategy and Policy at 
Hicks and Associates, foresees failure: 
            // WIMBUSH ACT //
      I see Russia causing instability in the region 
      for the foreseeable future with these kinds of 
      panicky, petulant thrusts which cause a lot of 
      damage and a lot of bloodshed and only add to 
      the radicalization of the region.  But 
      ultimately, Russia cannot control this region.  
      It does not have the forces to do it.  It does 
      not have the strategic vision to do it, and it 
      certainly does not have the leadership to do it 
      at this point.
            // END ACT //
The outbreak in Dagestan has coincided with yet 
another change of government in Moscow.  
The rebellion would challenge the resources of even a 
skilled, stable leadership, says Columbia University 
Professor of Political Science Robert Legvold.  But 
the current one in Moscow does not appear to be up to 
the task.
That is a shame, says Professor Legvold, because 
Dagestan does not pose as big a problem as Chechnya 
did: 
            // LEGVOLD ACT //
      It looks as though much of the public in 
      Dagestan is opposed to the rebels, which would 
      be very different from the situation in 
      Chechnya, where a large percentage of the 
      population supported the independence movement.  
      The question is whether the Russians, in dealing 
      with this problem, resort to a kind of brutality 
      that brings suffering to the population of 
      Dagestan and then turns the population against 
      them.
            // END ACT //
A warlord from Chechnya, Shamil Basayev, has led the 
rebellion in Dagestan, which is one of the poorest 
regions of Russia -- with unemployment above 80-
percent in its impoverished mountain villages.  In 
their despair, people have turned to radical Islam, 
which enforces a harsh rule and defies Moscow.
Moscow blames Islamist outsiders for stirring up 
trouble in Dagestan and warns Muslim countries not to 
get involved.  There are accusations that terrorist 
Osama Bin Laden has been supplying arms to the rebels 
and may move to Dagestan himself. 
This is not a foreign problem, responds political 
analyst Nikolai Petrov of the Moscow Carnegie research 
organization.  He says this is the result of the 
extreme weakness of the state in Russia -- Dagestan is 
the weakest link.
The links are snapping, says Enders Wimbush: 
            // WIMBUSH ACT //
      The unraveling started several-years ago, this 
      is just a continuation, perhaps an acceleration 
      of it.  One looks at a Russia today which is 
      really four or five different Russias, with 
      different resource bases, different kinds of 
      political leadership.  Moscow has very little 
      power 40-kilometers beyond its border to control 
      anything, even in the Russian regions.  I think 
      what one is likely to see in the next four or 
      five-years is the emergence of very strong 
      Russian regions.
            // END ACT //
His words are echoed in Moscow by Yegor Stroyev, 
speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament, who 
proclaimed -- the breakup of Russia is knocking at the 
door.
Professor Legvold cautions, not just yet.  Despite the 
inept, shaky leadership in Moscow, he doubts Dagestan 
will start unraveling Russia:
            // LEGVOLD ACT //
      I think it is premature to see this as the 
      beginning of the end for Russia or even as the 
      beginning of a general trend toward separatist 
      movements.  From the beginning, the situation in 
      the North Caucasus has been different, and even 
      within the North Caucasus, the problem of 
      Chechnya is very different from what is going on 
      in Dagestan or what might happen in Ingushetia.  
      It is far from clear that other important parts 
      of Russia have any desire to move in the same 
      direction as Chechnya or Basayev and his forces, 
      who are Chechens, after all.
            // END ACT //
Professor Legvold and Enders Wimbush agree a political 
solution is necessary for Dagestan, requiring 
statesmanlike compromise on the part of a great power 
that has shown no great aptitude for peaceful 
negotiation.   (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/RAE
17-Aug-1999 12:38 PM LOC (17-Aug-1999 1638 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
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