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Further Reading

Western Estimates

In the fall of 1945 an official U.S. estimate deprecated the Soviet ability to develop "trans-ocean missiles" and "B-29 type" bombers, putting that possibility beyond 1950 while at the same time it projected the likelihood of later Soviet capabilities for attack against the United States.3 A more immediate, even imminent, Soviet attack threat was acknowledged about three years later, however, in an early NSC paper which credited the Soviet TU-4-a "B-29 type" aircraft by then operational in the Soviet Air Force-as capable of attack against the United States. Among its conclusions, NSC 20/4 saw the U.S.S.R. also to be capable "by 1955" of "serious air attacks" against the United States.

From the start of the Cold War, the Soviet leadership had a clear view of strategic purpose in Europe. Various measures were fused to further the security of the Soviet state. The military and technical requirements and priorities necessary to realize that goal rated strong support. The Tupolev copy of the U.S. B-29 illustrated that fact. The TU-4 had come along more rapidly than anticipated, only one of a number of accelerated developments to confound the United States which were achieved through Soviet programs of enforced technical effort.

Derived from three U.S. B-29's which had landed in the Soviet Union in 1944, this Soviet aircraft began to appear in production numbers in 1947, one year following establishment of Long Range Aviation as part of the Soviet Air Forces. U.S. intelligence saw the TU-4 as a B-29 and, therefore, ascribed to it a comparable role. Whatever its role as actually conceived and planned by Soviet leaders, early development of this aircraft was a noteworthy technical achievement. It gave clear evidence of growing Soviet capabilities, in an operational military sense and as a development milestone.

Taken together with the deliberate, known Soviet programs for the systematic exploitation of German scientists and other western technology, U.S. intelligence needs concerning Soviet military capabilities seemed to be underscored. While U.S. intelligence saw the TU-4 as a threat to the United States, the Soviet leaders looked to their developing strike force as a means of defending the homeland, since the TU-4 and the atomic weapon would allow attack of the forward bases needed to launch strikes against the U.S.S.R. Soviet naval capabilities would help against carriers. Protection of the homeland would be carried out by active, coordinated air defense.

From the beginning of the Cold War, the U.S. felt an increasing need for good intelligence and information concerning Soviet capabilities and actions. This requirement grew while demobilization caused continuing reductions in military intelligence organizations. That fact and the exclusive jurisdiction given to CIA in certain collection activity made for an increased dependence on CIA. As the Soviet military threat appeared to grow while military intelligence capabilities contracted, there was a tendency to attribute to CIA blame for all inadequacies in intelligence concerning the Soviet Union.