DATE=2/24/2000 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT TITLE=TAIWAN ELECTIONS - CHINA NUMBER=5-45504 BYLINE=GRACE CUTLER DATELINE=HONG KONG CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: Voter support in Taiwan for presidential candidates is virtually unchanged in the aftermath of a new threat from Beijing. As Grace Cutler reports from Hong Kong, analysts say what is changing are Taiwanese attitudes toward reunification with China. TEXT: A recent poll in Taiwan shows Beijing's most recent threat to the island had little effect on who people want for president. On Monday, Beijing issued a policy paper saying Taiwan must begin negotiations toward unification or it would face a military attack. Of the nearly one thousand people polled, 26 percent support Independent party candidate James Soong -- up from 25 percent. Democratic Progressive Party hopeful Chen Shui-bian dropped one percentage point to 25 percent and Kuomintang candidate and Vice President Lien Chan held steady at 21 percent. The poll also showed a majority of those questioned were "not very worried" or "not at all worried" about a military threat from China in the run-up to next month's elections. China considers Taiwan a renegade province and says it must eventually reunite with the mainland. Four years ago during Taiwan's first presidential elections, Beijing threatened Taiwan with its military might and test fired missiles in waters off the coast of Taiwan. Cross strait relations remain a top concern for Taiwan voters. Each candidate has issued his own plan for reconciliation with Beijing, but with varying degrees of cooperation. But Chao Chien Min head of Taiwan's Sun Yat Sen Graduate Institute for Social Science and the Humanities says many voters no longer fear a split with China. He says people are rejecting the status- quo ideas of the ruling K-M-T to keep Taiwan on a separate but unequal footing with Beijing. Mr. Chao says more people are beginning to support Chen Shui- bian's idea of independence from the mainland. //CHAO ACT// It's true that the stability card that the ruling party has been playing very successfully in the past is losing its credit. If you look at the popularity Chen Shui-bian enjoys that tells you something. //END ACT// Some analysts say as the younger generation of Taiwanese come of age, the importance of reunification with the motherland will fade further. This has Beijing under increasing pressure to reach an agreement with Taiwan. Political analyst, Andrew Yang from the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies says the spilt in voter attitude on unification is one factor creating political instability in Taiwan. That instability, he says, contributed to Beijing's latest round of saber rattling. //YANG ACT// I think Beijing took advantage of this situation in Taiwan and issued this strong statement, because they can see their loophole here. They can see their access for them to exercise their intimidation. They will not give it up. They will push harder and harder and corner Taiwan and make Taiwan compromise with Beijing. //END ACT// Independent candidate James Soong is seen as the most likely to work with Beijing toward a compromise. But who ever is elected, analysts say, the issues between Taiwan and China will not go away. (Signed) NEB/GC/PLM 24-Feb-2000 06:33 AM EDT (24-Feb-2000 1133 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .
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