DATE=12/9/1999 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT TITLE=SYRIA / SUCCESSION (PART 2 OF 3) NUMBER=5-44938 BYLINE=DAMASCUS DATELINE=DALE GAVLAK CONTENT= VOICED AT: /// EDS: THIS IS THE SECOND OF THREE REPORTS ABOUT SYRIA. THE THIRD PART DEALS WITH MODERNIZING THE SYRIAN ECONOMY. /// INTRO: Western diplomats in Damascus say a chief topic of conversation in Syria is the question of who will succeed the country's ailing president, Hafez al Assad. Dale Gavlak reports from Damascus, where recent celebrations marked President Assad's 29 years in office. TEXT: /// ACT OF MUSIC /// At the celebrations in Damascus commemorating President Assad's anniversary, the thoughts of many people focused on the uncertainly they feel about the future. The man who has dominated Syria for nearly three decades is 69 years old. And, he is looking increasingly frail and is reported to be suffering from prostate cancer. For many years, President Assad has suffered from heart trouble. And he no longer holds his famous marathon meetings with foreign dignitaries. Ordinary Syrians, like Samir Haddad, say speculation is rife on the streets about the state of Mr. Assad's health and who will succeed him. /// HADDAD ACT /// It's an issue that raises lots of guessing. But lots of people expect the President's son, Bashar Assad, who is gathering support among the people, to follow up in his father's footsteps. /// END ACT /// But diplomats say that even though Mr. Assad is working shorter hours and despite concerns about his health, he remains in firm control of the Syrian government. Syria's finance minister, Mohamed al Emadi, downplayed rumors of President Assad's ill health. /// EMADI ACT /// He is following up all matters and seeing even ministers, somebody like me. So all this talk about his health is really out of question. Thanks be to God, he is strong. He is healthy. /// END ACT /// Some analysts say Mr. Assad's failing health might prompt him to clear the difficulties of peace with Israel in order to pave the way for a smooth succession to power for his son, Bashar. Basher Assad is a 34-year-old physician who moved to the political foreground by the death of his elder brother who had been considered the heir-apparent. Bashar Assad has worked to bolster his public image by taking on increased political responsibilities, such as heading the country's anti-corruption campaign and making diplomatic trips abroad. Information Minister Mohamed Salman says succession in Syria is governed by the constitution. He says that parties normally nominate the most effective candidate for the presidency. And he says Bashar Assad is such a candidate. /// SALMAN ACT /// Bashar Assad is somebody who has come to be well-known all over Syria as an active, competent, and loved person in Syria. /// END ACT /// But analysts say there also is another question -- can Bashar Assad win the support he needs from Syria's military and from the country's powerful merchant class? There are some potential challengers to Bashar Assad's claim to the presidency. Vice President Abd al-Halim Khaddam might be one. Mr. Khaddam has had substantial government experience. But analysts say his biggest problem is the fact he is not part of the Assad family. Another previously mentioned possibility is President Assad's brother, Rifaat. But analysts say the Syrian government's recent crackdown on Rifaat Assad supporters in the northern town of Latakia might mean his chance of seriously contesting for the presidency could be over. Syrians, like Samir Haddad, say people probably will be willing to accept Bashar Assad because he carries the Assad name which represents stability. But they say he must prove himself, particularly to the heads of Syria's powerful security organizations. (Signed) NEB/DG/JWH/ENE/PLM 09-Dec-1999 07:12 AM EDT (09-Dec-1999 1212 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .
