Belgrade on Barrel of Uranium by Dejan Anastasijevic Belgrade Vreme , 15 March 1997 pp 23-25 Twelve kilometers from Terazije, barrels of highly radioactive waste are rusting away. The International Atomic Energy Agency has declared a state of nuclear emergency. In the town of Vinca, just outside Belgrade, there is a nuclear institute of the same name, and at that institute, besides an experimental reactor which has not been in operation for years, there is a basin in which spent nuclear fuel has been dumped since the early 1960s. Aluminum barrels containing several hundred kilograms of a deadly mix of uranium, strontium, plutonium, and host of other radioactive products from chain reactions have long since begun to rust. If nothing is done very quickly, the barrels will begin leaking and cause serious radioactive pollution. In the worst-case scenario, there could even be an explosion. The federal government must allocate around $100,000 in order to clean up the site, but it is extremely uncertain whether that money will be found. Talk of the radioactive waste in Vinca began to emerge last month with the publication of a series of articles in the "Nuclear Fuel" bulletin, which is published by the U.S. scientific journal Nucleonic Week. In an article entitled "Vinca Demands Removal of Highly Enriched Uranium Because of Increasing Unrest in Serbia," it is claimed that the institute asked the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to remove from Yugoslavia 40 kilograms of so-called fresh nuclear fuel for a reactor that was imported from Russia nearly 20 years ago. According to journalist Mark Hibbs, that request is linked to the unstable situation in Serbia and the alleged fear of the institute's leadership that the fuel in question, 80 percent of which consists of uranium 235, could fall into the hands of "political desperados," who could use it for terrorist purposes. It is also claimed that the late Josip Broz wanted to make Yugoslavia capable of producing nuclear weapons, and also quoted are the writings of the Croatian press, which on several occasions over the last few years has accused Serbia of secretly splitting plutonium in Vinca for the purpose of developing its own nuclear arsenal. Similar theories, with insignificant variations, were also put forward by the same journalist in several subsequent articles. Nuclear Fuel is a low-circulation journal, but understandably the articles from it have aroused quite a bit of concern in local scientific circles. Additional worries arose with the publication of Dragan Jovanovic's article "Hiroshima Near Belgrade," published in the weekly NIN on 7 March of this year, which was basically an edited version of Mark Hibbs's article. However, the truth about what is going on in Vinca is incomparably more complex than these articles have made it out to be, and it has less to do with desperados, secret Serbian atomic programs, and a nuclear mafia than with domestic and international bureaucratic skirmishes, the consequences of which, even though there is no element of a conspiracy, could easily be catastrophic for all of us. Bomb Recipe At the Nuclear Institute in Vinca, they willingly confirmed to us that the 40 kilograms of highly enriched uranium fuel in question, packed in aluminum trunks, is indeed located there, but they vehemently deny that they have asked anyone to remove it from the country. "This is fuel that we imported for the needs of our experimental reactor and that has not been used thus far," Dr. Miroslav Kopecni, the director of the institute, tells Vreme. Kopecni emphasizes that this "fresh" fuel does not constitute an ecological risk, which the IAEA experts who perform monthly inspections could also confirm. Admittedly, the experts of that international supervisory body headquartered in Vienna have objected to the physical security arrangements at the Vinca institute, which are in fact below international standards and the only visible signs of which are one policeman guarding the gate at the entrance and a barbed- wire fence. Recently, Kopecni and his associates say, the IAEA approved some funding to raise that security to a higher level, and special cameras have also been purchased to continuously take pictures of the warehouse. The reason why the IAEA is especially interested in this uranium actually has little to do with the environment, but rather with the concern of some countries that it could be used to produce a bomb. "They come to check the seals and verify that no one has touched the trunks," say Kopecni, explaining that highly enriched uranium, theoretically speaking, is very well suited for the production of various things, including bombs. "Unlike certain other nuclear materials, which demand a very complex technology for handling, you can almost work with this kind of uranium at your kitchen table," he adds. Given the fact that for years Yugoslavia enjoyed a good reputation at the IAEA, up until 1991 inspections were performed every three months, but when the country began to break up monitoring was tightened for understandable reasons. Despite that, and the fact that Yugoslavia has formally "dropped out" of the IAEA since it is not a member of the United Nations, relations between the Vinca institute and that international agency have remained extremely correct all along. This was also confirmed to us in an informal talk with representatives of the agency in Vienna, where we were told that there is no basis whatsoever for believing that anyone in Belgrade is dreaming about a bomb. As regards the program to split plutonium (which could be the first step in producing a bomb), work was in fact done in Vinca in the 1970s to produce that substance. "We produced only a few grams for experimental purposes, and we did not make any secret of that," they say at the institute, reminding us that they cooperated closely on this program with kindred institutes in Norway and the Czech Republic, and that the results of the experiments were published on the front pages of daily newspapers. Beginning in the late 1970s, however, all programs of that type were drastically cut and never restarted, while 10 years later the larger of the two reactors was shut down completely, because it no longer satisfied the tightened international safety criteria. The so-called Reactor B, which is still in operation, has several thousand times less power, in the order of magnitude of several watts. Whose Uranium Is It? Director Kopecni feels that the articles in Nuclear Fuel are part of a campaign aimed at removing the 40 kilograms of uranium in question from Yugoslavia, and that behind that campaign are nuclear powers who simply do not like the idea of that potentially dangerous substance being anywhere outside their territory. "This is strategic material, and the Americans, as part of the RETIR program, have taken steps to get all fuel that they sold to third countries back to the United States, by way of the IAEA. However, the highly enriched uranium in Vinca is of Russian origin, we paid for it properly, and it is without a doubt ours." They say the same thing in Vienna as well. "Vinca has no obligation to return that uranium to Russia, even though certain countries would like that very much," says Vreme's source at the IAEA, a highly respected foreign expert who is well acquainted with the situation in Vinca and whose "service regulations" strictly forbid him from issuing official statements. Of course, one question that arises is why the institute even needs that highly enriched uranium, given the fact that the main reactor is not in operation and that with a certain amount of imagination it is certainly conceivable that in some extraordinary situation it could fall into the hands of some "desperado." "In fact, we would have nothing against that uranium being returned to Russia, but only under the condition that we receive in exchange a corresponding quantity of low-enriched uranium. Such uranium can also be used as fuel, although it is not considered a strategic material. However, we are firmly opposed to something that is ours being taken away from us to serve the major powers' interests." This stance is called "extremely reasonable" in Vienna, where it is noted that this would in fact be the best solution. Director Kopecni still hopes that with a little investment the main reactor could be put back into operation. "This situation, with a reactor that has been idle for more than 10 years with all the fuel in its core, is unacceptable, because the auxiliary parts of the system are failing. It is estimated that putting it into operation would be cheaper than conservation, and Russia and China are also interested in doing this in conjunction with our experts. Indeed, China has a reactor that is almost identical to ours, which they renovated and increased its power, and which has been used successfully for several years now." However, $2 to $4 million is needed to get the reactor running, a sum that this country can only dream about for now. According to Kopecni, the most expensive solution would be to completely dismantle the reactor and turn Vinca into what it was before 1959--an ordinary wasteland. Aside from that, he says, it would have serious consequences for existing scientific programs which are somehow being kept going through diligent efforts. Killer Bubble Thus ends the tale of the 40 kilograms of uranium mentioned in Nuclear Fuel and begins another much more ominous tale, about the waste that collected in Vinca during the 30 years of operation by Reactor A. This is the spent fuel in the basin that was mentioned at the beginning of this article. Specifically, the burning of uranium in a reactor generates a host of very radioactive substances whose half-life (i.e., the time in which radioactivity is reduced by one-half) can be as much as several million years. Thirty years ago, the basin next to the reactor was intended to be a temporary disposal site, and it has remained that to this day. Initially the spent fuel was stored in stainless steel pipes, but over time the space ran out, so that some of it was repackaged in aluminum barrels. Aluminum, like the rubber gaskets with which the barrels are sealed, is subject to corrosion, and that process is moving along quickly, judging from photographs taken with an underwater camera and the results of chemical-radiological analyses of water from the basin. To make matters worse, one of the byproducts of this waste is hydrogen gas, which threatens to cause the aluminum canisters to explode because of pressure on the their interior walls. If that were to happen, a radioactive bubble would rise up out of the basin which, admittedly, would not kill anyone, but would cause serious pollution. Judging from some calculations, the quantity of hydrogen released thus far should have already caused an explosion, or such a thing could happen any day now. In Vinca they say that the only reason why this has not happened is that the barrels have by all indications already cracked, so that the excess hydrogen is leaking into the basin anyway. The aforementioned IAEA expert tells Vreme this: "The situation is potentially very serious. Those barrels have been rusting for 30 years now and are obviously under pressure. A bubble could result in aerosol radioactive pollution which would not kill anyone, at least not immediately, but which would nevertheless be quite serious." To make things worse, a radioactive bubble is one of the relatively innocuous outcomes of the current situation. If the uranium in the barrels itself begins to rust, the result will be uranium hydride, which is probably the most flammable substance that exists. The famous white phosphorus, which is used to manufacture incendiary and napalm bombs, is less dangerous than this compound. "All that uranium hydride needs is to come into contact with only a few molecules of oxygen, and it will ignite, even if it is under water." Such a fire, within a basin full of radioactive waste, could burn for days, and the consequences would be unforeseeable. Mushroom Cloud Over Belgrade The third and most horrifying possibility is also the least likely one. "If the geometry of the nuclear fuel in the basin were to change, say, as a result of the simultaneous rupture of several barrels, that change could bring about a critical situation," says our source in Vienna. That statement will send chills down the spine of anyone who remembers high school physics: With uranium, critical mass is the state that immediately precedes a nuclear reaction, and an uncontrolled nuclear reaction is what happens when an atomic bomb is activated. As consolation, it would not be the exact kind of explosion that the world saw at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. However, our source says that the possibility of this nightmare scenario actually happening is "very, very small." "How small, in percents or per milles?" we asked. "That is impossible to estimate" was his response. Atomic Confluence All of this has long been common knowledge in Vinca, as well as in the federal government, which by law should see to it that the probability of such an outcome is exactly zero. "The Serbs did not invent corrosion," says Kopecni, citing several examples from around the world where a similar problem has been encountered. "We have wanted to solve this for some time. There exists a complete Russian project for repackaging the fuel and cleaning the water in the basin." The problem, as usual, is with money: Such a job costs around $300,000. Like other scientific institutions, the institute does not have that money. Moreover, for years it has been unclear whether Vinca is the responsibility of Serbia or Yugoslavia (former and present-day). After a long and persistent effort, experts from the institute finally succeeded last year in bringing about the creation of a Federal Commission for Nuclear Energy, headed by Nikola Sainovic, but that commission rarely meets--after all, we would remind our readers, in recent months Sainovic has been much more concerned with Nis than with Vinca. Things are not much better on the international scene: Although the IAEA should have come to the rescue long ago, the fact that Yugoslavia is not a member of the United Nations (of which the IAEA is a part) has made it formally impossible to access funds, which are under the control of the major powers. "The matter made it to the desk of the U.S. secretary of state," says our source in Vienna, "but the message from there was that there can be no exceptions." Ultimately the problem has been solved by having the IAEA declare the situation in Vinca a "nuclear emergency." There are special funds for such cases, so in that context around half of the money that is needed was approved. It is interesting that the articles in Nuclear Fuel devote significantly less attention to this waste and its status than to those 40 kilograms of "fresh" uranium, while there is no mention whatsoever of the emergency. It appears that the second half would have to be approved by the federal government, but in view of the situation that will be much more difficult. The situation of scientific institutions in Yugoslavia, and of Vinca in particular, deserves to be the subject of a separate article, as does the problem of the so-called cemetery, i.e., the temporary storage facility for low-radioactive waste which under the current law clearly should not be where it is. The government (in fact the republican one, and thus its Ministry of Education) has been taking a close look at Vinca lately, but within the context of the plans to get rid of directors of scientific institutions who closed ranks behind the "illegal" Acting Rector Kuburovic. In the meantime, the radioactivity of the water in the basin is rising by a factor of two to three every few months. People of Belgrade, sleep peacefully, because your health is in the hands of Nikola Sainovic and Madeleine Albright. THIS REPORT MAY CONTAIN COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL. COPYING AND DISSEMINATION IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE COPYRIGHT OWNERS.
