South Korea: Perspectives on Continued Engagement with North Korea
2003-05-21
by
Ambassador Sun Joun-yung
Permanent Representative
of the Republic of Korea
to the United Nations
at
the United Nations Association
of the United States of America
and the Business Council for the United Nations
Global Forums for Business Leaders Luncheon
May 15, 2003
New York
I. Introduction
I thank the Business Council for the United Nations for inviting me to speak before such a distinguished audience. I would like to share with you today some thoughts on the North Korean nuclear weapons issue. As you may know, this topic is particularly timely as South Korean President Roh met yesterday with President Bush and discussed, among other things, a unified strategy and future course of action for resolving North Korea's nuclear issue. This U.S. -South Korea summit will be followed by a U.S.-Japan summit on 23 May at which the North Korean nuclear issue will again be a central topic for discussion.
II. Trilateral Meeting in Beijing
As has been reported in the media, a trilateral meeting among the United States, North Korea and China took place in Beijing from 23 to 25 April. Throughout the course of the discussions, North Korea was insistent that the meeting represented a forum for bilateral negotiations between itself and the United States. On the other hand, the U.S. pursued a multilateral approach at the meeting, claiming that China was an equal participant.
In a pull-aside conversation between the U.S. and North Korea, the latter admitted that it was already in possession of nuclear weapons and that it had nearly completed the reprocessing of the 8,000 spent fuel rods, which had been stored in a water pond since the signing of the 1994 Agreed Framework.
North Korea proposed that the issue be resolved with a package deal to include the assurance of non-aggression, the resumption of fuel oil deliveries, the construction of two light water reactors and the normalization of relations between North Korea and the U.S., in exchange for the termination of its nuclear weapons programme.
The United States is currently considering whether to continue the three-way meetings. This decision will be made after the two summits.
III. China
China played a crucial role in arranging the tripartite meeting in Beijing by persuading North Korea to take part. The participation of China in the Beijing meeting represented a compromise between North Korea's insistence on bilateral negotiations with the U.S. and the determination of the United States to resolve the issue through a multilateral approach. It is expected that China will continue to play an important role in the negotiations.
Today's situation in Northeast Asia is starkly different from that of ten years ago when, just after the end of the Cold War, North Korea still enjoyed strong alliances with China and the former Soviet Union. North Korea's economy was not in such miserable shape at that time. Nowadays, China, Russia and all other countries, support a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. China fears that the nuclearization of North Korea could trigger, inter alia, a spillover effect in the region, especially in Japan.
Furthermore, China's relations with the United States have grown increasingly important. China's continued economic growth will largely depend on its continued good relationship with the United States. For example, in 2002, China recorded $100 billion of trade surplus vis-à-vis the United States, while that same year, U.S. direct investment in China was over $10 billion. The destabilization of the Korean Peninsula, and in turn the Northeast Asian region, by North Korea's nuclearization would have considerably adverse impact on China's economy.
We should also note, China is deeply concerned that serious destabilization in North Korea could lead to a mass exodus of North Koreans into China's northeast province of Jilin, where most of the two million Chinese of Korean origin live. Therefore, China wants to see the North Korean nuclear issue resolved peacefully without the stability of the country undermined.
North Korea's extremely heavy dependence on China's oil and foodstuff has given China decisive leverage on North Korea.
IV. North Korea
Now let us look at the North Korea of today. After years of famine, degenerated production and decreased trade, its economy is in a shambles. External assistance from the UN agencies and other organizations is not enough to feed the North Korean people.
Last year, North Korea attempted to carry out bold economic reforms, which included the establishment of a special economic zone near the border with China. These internally oriented reforms failed and caused hyperinflation, among other problems. North Korea has no meaningful natural resources; no oil, no natural gas.
Having been branded a part of the axis of evil by the Bush administration, North Korea is indeed fearful that even though the U.S. has since stated otherwise, the U.S. may bring about regime change in North Korea. North Korea's military equipment can be considered mere scrap iron, especially compared to the U.S. high-tech weapons employed in the Iraqi War. Under the circumstances, North Korea may perceive its nuclear weapons programme as its only deterrent with which to protect its regime from any outside threats. North Korean radio has frequently noted that without its nuclear weapons, North Korea would be absolutely defenseless.
In return for North Korea's elimination of its nuclear weapons capabilities, the United States, South Korea, Japan and other countries may provide North Korea with economic and other assistance, such as the assurances of non-aggression and even the normalization of relations with the United States. However, such an arrangement would logically lead to the opening of North Korea. For the past half century North Korea has avoided such opening in order to prevent the collapse of its regime, even at the sacrifice of its own people.
North Korea may see itself in a Catch 22 situation. It believes that giving up its nuclear weapons programme would threaten the very existence of its regime. However, as long as North Korea is in possession of nuclear weapons, it will be further isolated and impoverished, thus imperiling the survival of its regime.
V. South Korea
The South Korean government under President Roh Moo-hyun is of the position that the nuclearization of North Korea cannot be condoned, that North Korea's nuclear weapons programme must be dismantled and that this issue must be resolved peacefully through negotiations.
At the summit yesterday, President Roh and President Bush reaffirmed that they will not tolerate nuclear weapons in North Korea, underscoring that any escalatory actions taken by the North would lead only to its further isolation. They welcomed China's role in the Beijing talks and agreed that the continued cooperation of South Korea and Japan would be essential to the successful settlement of the issue through multilateral diplomacy. While noting that increased threats to peace and stability on the Peninsula would require consideration of further steps, both presidents expressed confidence that a peaceful resolution can be achieved.
South Korea will keep its channels of dialogue with North Korea open. However, with the exception of certain humanitarian assistance, future inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation will be linked to the developments on the North Korean nuclear issue.
In June 2001, when the U.S. made it known that it was ready to hold talks with North Korea without conditions, South Korea, along with China, Japan and Russia supported bilateral negotiations between the United States and North Korea. However, when North Korea disclosed its clandestine nuclear weapons programme based on highly enriched uranium in October 2002, the United States shifted to a multilateral approach. South Korea has supported this multilateral approach, which brought about the three-party meeting in Beijing.
VI. United Nations Security Council
On 12 February the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) adopted a resolution confirming North Korea's non-compliance with its NPT safeguards agreement and referred the case to the United Nations Security Council. In light of the on-going diplomatic efforts to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, the Security Council has thus far discussed the issue only twice in an informal manner. The future action of the Security Council will be determined after the U.S. summits with South Korea and Japan. The intensity of the measures which may be taken by the Security Council will likely be contingent on whether or not North Korea takes further escalatory actions.
VII. Predictions of the Negotiated Settlement
One of the characteristics common to all tyrants is their refusal to give up, even at the edge of a cliff. It is likely that as a strategy, North Korea will prolong the negotiations process for as long as possible.
The eventual resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue will depend on the close coordination among the high stakeholders dealing with the issue. There is no question that the United States will continue to act as the keystone in this regard.
Source : www.korea.net
