DATE=3/18/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-42888 TITLE=MISSILE DEFENSE/ U-S & ASIA BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: IN ADDITION TO THE MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM FOR THE UNITED STATES THAT WAS APPROVED BY CONGRESS THIS WEEK, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN ARE STUDYING THE POSSIBILITY OF DEPLOYING AN EAST ASIAN REGIONAL ANTI-MISSILE SYSTEM. THAT PROPOSAL, WHICH U-S OFFICIALS SAY IT IS A LONG WAY FROM BECOMING A REALITY, HAS BEEN CRITICIZED BY CHINA, NORTH KOREA AND RUSSIA. V-O-A'S STEPHANIE MANN REPORTS ON WHAT MIGHT BE INVOLVED IN AN ASIAN MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM. TEXT: MANY U-S POLICYMAKERS AND POLITICIANS BELIEVE THE UNITED STATES IS VULNERABLE TO MISSILE ATTACK. THEY SAY THAT EXISTING DEFENSE SYSTEMS ARE NOT CAPABLE OF DESTROYING INCOMING MISSILES BEFORE THEY HIT THEIR TARGETS. SO, AMERICAN DEFENSE PLANNERS HAVE BEEN CONDUCTING RESEARCH INTO REGIONAL ANTI-MISSILE PROGRAMS THAT COULD DESTROY BALLISTIC OR LONG RANGE MISSILES AT HIGH ALTITUDES, WELL BEFORE THEY REACH THEIR TARGETS. A RESEARCHER AT THE RAND CORPORATION WHO STUDIES COUNTER-PROLIFERATION AND FORCE IMPROVEMENT ISSUES, BRUCE BENNETT, EXPLAINS THE PURPOSE OF TRYING TO DEVELOP WHAT IS CALLED A THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM. // BENNETT ACT ONE // MOST STATES THAT ARE POTENTIALLY CONTRARY TO U-S INTERESTS ARE DEVELOPING THEATER BALLISTIC MISSILES WITH WHICH THEY COULD DELIVER EITHER HIGH EXPLOSIVES OR WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION EITHER AGAINST U-S FORCES OR THE POPULATIONS OF OUR ALLIES. SO A DEFENSIVE SYSTEM IS INTENDED TO TRY TO COUNTER SUCH BALLISTIC MISSILE CAPABILITIES. // END ACT // MR. BENNETT SAYS THE BIG ADVANTAGE OF A REGIONAL SYSTEM IS THAT IT ALLOWS SEVERAL COUNTRIES TO SHARE THE HIGH DEVELOPMENTAL COSTS INVOLVED. HE ESTIMATES A THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM FOR EAST ASIA COULD COST AS MUCH AS 10 BILLION DOLLARS. ANOTHER ANALYST, STEPHEN YATES, SAYS A REGIONAL SYSTEM CAN BE MORE EFFECTIVE THAN AN ANTI-MISSILE EFFORT BY JUST ONE COUNTRY. // YATES ACT ONE // THE ADVANTAGE OF HAVING MULTIPLE PARTIES INVOLVED IN A SYSTEM IS THAT YOU NEED TO HAVE MANY DIFFERENT POINTS MONITORING THE SKIES IN ORDER TO PINPOINT THE LOCATION OF AN INCOMING MISSILE. ... JUST THINK OF IT AS KIND OF A MONITORING SYSTEM WHERE CIRCLES ARE GOING OUT FROM A POINT, AND IF YOU HAVE TWO CIRCLES, THEY CAN PINPOINT WHERE SOMETHING IS IN THE SKY. THE MORE POINTS YOU HAVE SEARCHING FOR SOMETHING, THE MORE ACCURATE YOUR SYSTEM CAN BE. // END ACT // MR. YATES, WHO IS WITH THE ASIAN STUDIES CENTER OF THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION -- A WASHINGTON RESEARCH ORGANIZATION -- SAYS A MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM FOR EAST ASIA WOULD NOT BE DESIGNED TO DEFEND AGAINST A PARTICULAR COUNTRY. HE SAYS IT WOULD BE USED AGAINST INCOMING SCUD MISSILES OR OTHER ADVANCED MISSILES FROM ANY COUNTRY. // YATES ACT TWO // I DON'T THINK THAT IT SPECIFICALLY TARGETS ANY ONE COUNTRY, ALTHOUGH POLITICALLY IT'S UNDENIABLE THAT THE HIGHEST PRIORITY THREAT RIGHT NOW FOR PEOPLE IN ASIA IS NORTH KOREA, ESPECIALLY IF YOU ASK JAPAN, BECAUSE NORTH KOREA LAUNCHED A MYSTERIOUS OBJECT THAT LOOKED LIKE A THREE-STAGE ROCKET OVER ITS SOVEREIGN TERRITORY. AND SO JAPAN LOOKS AT NORTH KOREA AS BEING THE NUMBER ONE THREAT OF MISSILE ATTACK. OTHERS LOOK TO THE BUILDUP OF MISSILES ON MAINLAND CHINA AND SAY THAT THEY NEED A MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM TO PROTECT AGAINST CHINESE MISSILE ATTACK; NAMELY, TAIWAN FEELS THIS WAY. // END ACT // MR. BENNETT, OF THE RAND RESEARCH ORGANIZATION, SAYS AN EAST ASIA THEATER ANTI-MISSILE SYSTEM WOULD INVOLVE AT LEAST TWO LAYERS OF DEFENSE. THE FIRST WOULD OPERATE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE -- WITH SHORTER-RANGE MISSILES (OPT) LIKE THE PATRIOT AND THE NAVY'S AEGIS MISSILE-TRACKING SYSTEM (END OPT)-- AND WOULD COVER ABOUT 20 TO 100 KILOMETERS AROUND THE AREA BEING DEFENDED. HE SAYS THE UPPER TIER PART OF THE PLAN WOULD OPERATE OUTSIDE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH LONG-RANGE MISSILES (OPT) LIKE THE NAVY THEATER-WIDE SYSTEM OR ANOTHER PROGRAM CALLED "THAAD" (END OPT) THAT WOULD SERVE AS A HIGH ALTITUDE, OR UPPER TIER, DEFENSE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WOULD PROVIDE A BROADER AREA OF COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH DEFENSE PLANNERS IN THE UNITED STATES HAVE BEEN CONDUCTING RESEARCH INTO REGIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE FOR SEVERAL YEARS, MOST TEST RESULTS WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL. NOW, ANALYSTS SAY TEST RESULTS LOOK MORE PROMISING. // OPT // (THIS WEEK / MARCH 15TH), THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT REPORTED ITS FIRST SUCCESSFUL TEST OF A PATRIOT ADVANCED SEEKER MISSILE (PAC-3) AT THE WHITE SANDS MISSILE RANGE IN NEW MEXICO. THE TEST INVOLVED TRACKING AND CLOSING IN ON A TARGET IN FLIGHT. // END OPT // HOWEVER, MR. BENNETT SAYS THE TECHNOLOGY FOR THE HIGH-ALTITUDE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM STILL DOES NOT EXIST. // BENNETT ACT TWO // WE STILL HAVE YET TO HAVE A SUCCESSFUL TEST OF AN UPPER TIER SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN FOUR OR FIVE FAILURES OF THE "THAAD," AND SO WE'RE STILL PROBABLY FOUR OR FIVE YEARS AWAY FROM HAVING AN OPERATIONAL UPPER END SYSTEM EVEN IF THE TESTS GO WELL. // END ACT // IN ADDITION TO THE OBSTACLES OF TECHNOLOGY AND COST, STEPHEN YATES OF THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION SEES SOME POTENTIAL POLITICAL CHALLENGES TO IMPLEMENTING THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE. MR. YATES SAYS TO BE TRULY EFFECTIVE, A MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM HAS TO RELY ON SATELLITES FOR LOCATING MISSILES, CALCULATING THEIR TRAJECTORIES AND COORDINATING INFORMATION AMONG ALLIES TO KNOCK OUT THE TARGETS. HOWEVER, HE SAYS THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS AGAINST USING SPACE FOR MILITARY PURPOSES. IN ADDITION, MR. YATES SAYS IF MAJOR STATES LIKE CHINA ARE SO OPPOSED TO THE REGIONAL SYSTEM, ITS NEIGHBORS MAY SHY AWAY FROM PARTICIPATING IN IT. (SIGNED) NEB/SMN/KL 18-Mar-99 11:51 AM EST (1651 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .
