DATE=07/24/99 TYPE=ON THE LINE NUMBER=1-00759 TITLE=WHAT NEXT IN IRAN? EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037 CONTENT= THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES. THIS WEEK, "WHAT NEXT IN IRAN?" HERE IS YOUR HOST, ROBERT REILLY. HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE. THIS MONTH, IRANIAN STUDENTS AND OTHERS MOUNTED THE LARGEST AND MOST VIOLENT DEMONSTRATIONS SINCE THE 1979 ISLAMIC REVOLUTION. STUDENTS, CHANTING "LONG LIVE LIBERTY, DEATH TO DESPOTISM," PROTESTED AGAINST GOVERNMENT REPRESSION IN TEHRAN AND MANY OTHER CITIES. THE DEMONSTRATIONS BEGAN AFTER A RELIGIOUS COURT ORDERED THE CLOSING OF SALAM, ONE OF IRAN'S MOST INFLUENTIAL MODERATE NEWSPAPERS. ISLAMIC HARDLINERS AND POLICE ATTACKED THE PROTESTERS. SEVERAL PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND DOZENS WOUNDED. JOINING ME TODAY TO DISCUSS RECENT EVENTS IN IRAN ARE TWO EXPERTS: AZAR NAFISI IS A VISITING SENIOR FELLOW AT THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY AND A VISITING PROFESSOR AT THE JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL FOR ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES. AND KHALID DURAN IS A MIDDLE EAST ANALYST AND EDITOR OF THE JOURNAL, TRANSISLAM. WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM. AZAR NAFISI, LET ME ASK YOU, SINCE YOU ARE IRANIAN, HOW IS IT THAT SOME TWENTY YEARS AFTER THE REVOLUTION, YOU HAVE TENS OF THOUSANDS OF STUDENTS MARCHING THROUGH THE VARIOUS CITIES OF IRAN, CHANTING SOME OF THE VERY SAME SLOGANS THAT BROUGHT DOWN THE SHAH. WHAT IS THE MEANING OF THIS? NAFISI: WELL YOU KNOW, IN FACT, THEY GO MUCH FURTHER THAN THE SLOGANS THAT BROUGHT DOWN THE SHAH. AT THAT TIME, THE STRUGGLE WAS MAINLY IDEOLOGICAL. I MEAN, THERE WERE POLITICAL ORGANIZATIONS WITH IDEOLOGICAL AGENDAS, LIKE THE MARXIST ORGANIZATIONS, LIKE THE ISLAMISTS. NOW THE STUDENTS HAVE BROADENED THE SLOGANS TO GO BEYOND IDEOLOGY. THEY ALL WANT DEMOCRACY. AND YOU MENTIONED THE SLOGANS, "AGAINST DESPOTISM" AND "FOR LIBERTY." BUT THEY WERE ALSO VERY SPECIFIC IN THEIR SLOGANS. THEY TARGETED THE AGENTS OF DESPOTISM AS THE SUPREME JUDICIARY LEADER, THE MILITIA, THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS, THE IRANIAN PARLIAMENT, AND THE JUDICIARY. HOST: AND ALSO AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI? NAFISI: YES, THE SUPREME LEADER. THIS SHOWS THAT THE CHILDREN OF REVOLUTION, WHOM THE REVOLUTIONARIES WERE IRONICALLY HOPING WOULD TAKE THEIR PLACE AND WOULD CREATE THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC ACCORDING TO THE MODEL THAT AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI HAD ENVISIONED, ARE NOW THE ONES WHO ARE REALLY TURNING AND NEGATING THE REVOLUTION. HOST: ONE OF THE SLOGANS HEARD DURING THE DEMONSTRATIONS WAS: "ISLAM AND LAW, OR REVOLUTION." IN OTHER WORDS, THE PROTESTERS THOUGHT THEY WERE THE ONES REPRESENTING ISLAM AND LAW, AND THE ONLY ALTERNATIVE TO WHAT THEY WANTED WOULD THEN BE REVOLUTION. HOW DO WE UNDERSTAND WHAT THEY MEANT BY "ISLAM AND LAW"? KHALID DURAN, DO YOU HAVE AN IDEA? DURAN: THERE ARE ALWAYS PEOPLE FEELING THAT THERE IS SOMEWHERE, SOMEHOW, A REAL ISLAM, A GOOD ISLAM, A NICE ISLAM, OUR ISLAM, NOT THE BAD ISLAM THAT IS BEING SHOWN TO US, NOT THE CORRUPT ISLAM, THE DISTORTED ISLAM THAT IS BEING EXERCISED HERE BY A RULING CLASS, CLERICS IN THIS CASE. HOST: BUT DOES THE GOOD ISLAM INCLUDE DEMOCRACY? DURAN: WELL, FOR THE PROTESTERS, THE DEMONSTRATORS, YES IT DOES. AS A MATTER OF FACT, THAT'S WHAT THEY MEAN BY GOOD ISLAM. NOW, YOU KNOW, AS WITH ALL RELIGIONS, THEY ARE ALWAYS A BIT ELASTIC. YOU CAN PULL THEM A BIT THIS WAY OR A BIT THAT WAY, AND SO ON. NOW, THE PRESENT RULING CLASS IN IRAN, THE CLERICAL ESTABLISHMENT, THEY HAVE REALLY PULLED THEIR ISLAM TO AN EXTREME, SO THAT FOR MANY PEOPLE IN IRAN THEY CANNOT RECOGNIZE THAT ANYMORE AS OUR ISLAM. SO WE WANT THE REAL THING. BUT WE SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS. I THINK THAT'S ALSO A BIT TACTICAL THAT THE STUDENTS.SHOUTED THAT BECAUSE, AS A MATTER OF FACT, THE REAL PROBLEM, TO MY MIND, RATHER IS THAT SO MANY PEOPLE IN IRAN HAVE LOST THEIR FAITH IN ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING. THERE IS A LOT OF CYNICISM. THERE IS A DESPAIR IN A SENSE. CERTAINLY PEOPLE DO NOT WANT IDEOLOGY, AND SO ON. I WOULDN'T TAKE THAT TOO SERIOUSLY. IF THE PROTESTS CONTINUE, YOU WILL HEAR VERY DIFFERENT SLOGANS. HOST: ALL RIGHT. THIS IS WHAT I FIND SO CURIOUS, AZAR NAFISI, IS THAT THE CLERICAL REGIME SEEMS TO HAVE UNDERSTOOD VERY WELL THE ROLE OF THE UNIVERSITIES AND STUDENTS IN THE DOWNFALL OF THE SHAH, AND APPLIED ITSELF TO UTILIZING THESE UNIVERSITIES TO DEVELOP A GROUP THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE REGIME, BY PICKING THE SONS OF REVOLUTIONARY GUARD TROOPS AND POORER PEOPLE FROM FUNDAMENTALIST FAMILIES. YET, THESE SEEM TO BE THE VERY STUDENTS WHO HAVE BEEN OUT THERE REJECTING THIS GOVERNMENT. WHAT HAPPENED? NAFISI: THAT IS TRUE. AND ALSO IN REGARD TO WHAT YOU WERE SAYING, THAT SLOGAN WAS VERY TACTICAL. I WILL COME TO THAT POINT YOU MADE. THE VERY INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE SLOGANS AND THESE PROTESTS AND WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN IRAN IS THAT, MORE AND MORE, THEY ARE MOVING TOWARDS SECULARISM. THE STRIKING THING ABOUT THE SLOGANS WAS THAT THERE WERE MORE SLOGANS PRO-PRIME MINISTER [MOHAMMED] MOSSADEGH, THE NATIONALIST PRIME MINISTER WHO WAS OVERTHROWN IN NINETEEN FIFTY-THREE, AND THE NATIONALIST LEADERS WHO WERE MURDERED IN IRAN BY THE SECURITY FORCES. HOST: YOU MEAN THE DISSIDENT POLITICAL LEADERS WHO WERE MURDERED LAST YEAR? NAFISI: RIGHT. AND THEY WERE SAYING THAT, "MOSSADEGH, [PARVANEH] FOROUHAR, YOUR PATH WILL BE CONTINUED." AND THERE WAS ALMOST NO MENTION, EXCEPT FOR KHATEMI, OF ANY LEADERS. NO MENTION OF AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI. AND WHEN THEY MENTIONED KHATEMI, THEY ALSO HAD QUESTIONS. THEY SAID: "KHATEMI, KHATEMI, WHERE ARE YOU? WHERE ARE YOU?" AND "WE WON'T LEAVE UNTIL WE SEE KHATEMI." HOST: WELL, THAT WAS A VERY GOOD QUESTION: WHERE WAS HE? KHALID DURAN, YOU PERSONALLY KNEW MR. KHATEMI, ALBEIT BEFORE THE REVOLUTION. BUT YOU HAVE SOME PERSONAL KNOWLEDGE OF HIM. WHO IS HE, AND WHERE WAS HE? DURAN: WELL, HE CERTAINLY IS NOT WHAT THE WORLD PRESS HAS MADE HIM OUT TO BE OVER THE LAST YEAR OR TWO. I SOMETIMES LOOK AT HIS PICTURE AND ASK MYSELF, IS THIS REALLY TRUE? BUT THEN I SEE HIM THERE. HE IS THE MAN WHOM WE KNEW. I WORKED IN HAMBURG IN GERMANY FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS, AND HE WAS IMAM AT THE IRANIAN MOSQUE OVER THERE. JUST LIKE THE LATE AYATOLLAH [MOHAMMED] BEHESHTI BEFORE HIM. NOW, MOHAMMED KHATEMI CERTAINLY DID NOT IMPRESS US AS AN INTELLECTUAL. I DO NOT WANT TO PULL HIM DOWN, BUT THAT, HE CERTAINLY IS NOT. WHAT WE CAN SAY, I MEAN WITH HIS EXPERIENCE, THE WAY WE SAW HIM OVER THERE, AND THEN THE ROLE HE ASSUMED IN IRAN, HE IS A FIRST-CLASS CONSPIRATOR. I MEAN, HE IS AN ARCHITECT OF THIS SYSTEM, OF THIS REVOLUTION. AND THEREFORE, THE MOST MISTAKEN COMPARISON ANYONE COULD EVER MAKE WAS TO COMPARE HIM WITH [MIKHAIL] GORBACHEV. GORBACHEV IS A MAN WHO REALLY CHANGED THINGS FOR THE BETTERMENT OF HUMANITY IN THIS CENTURY. HE IS ONE OF THE GREAT PERSONS OF THIS CENTURY BECAUSE HE GREW UP WITHIN THAT SYSTEM AND HAD THE MORAL STRENGTH, THE CHARACTER, AND INTELLECTUAL CAPACITY TO CHANGE THAT, TO BRING THAT TO AN END. HOST: BUT WHAT YOU ARE SAYING IS THAT THIS DIVISION BETWEEN THE REACTIONARY FORCES BEHIND AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI AND THE PROGRESSIVE FORCES OF MODERNIZATION BEHIND PRESIDENT KHATEMI, THAT THIS IS A FALSE DICHOTOMY. DURAN: IT IS CERTAINLY VASTLY EXAGGERATED. AND THESE PROTEST DEMONSTRATIONS NOW, THEY BROUGHT THIS WHOLE THING TO THE FORE. I MEAN, KHATEMI CAN PLAY THIS GAME UNTIL A CERTAIN POINT, BUT HERE THINGS WENT TOO FAR. AND THEN HE HAD TO SHOW HIS TRUE COLORS. HE HAD TO REVEAL HIMSELF AS A MAN OF THIS REGIME, OF THE SYSTEM, WHO JUST HAS THAT LOVELY SMILE, BUT NOTHING ELSE THAN THAT. HOST: DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT, AZAR NAFISI? NAFISI: YES, I DO AGREE WITH THAT. AND I AM VERY GLAD THAT YOU BROUGHT THAT OUT. I THINK IT'S VERY SIMPLISTIC TO REDUCE EVERYTHING TO THE WHITE HAT, BLACK HAT, HIS MODERATENESS KHATEMI VERSUS THE BAD GUYS, KHAMENEI. KHATEMI'S POSITION IN IRAN IS VERY PARADOXICAL. ON THE ONE HAND, HE HAS SAID IT, AND WE SHOULD BELIEVE HIM, THAT HE BELIEVES IN THE TENETS OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC, INCLUDING THE RULE OF THE LEADERS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE AGENDA THAT PEOPLE WANTED OF HIM OR VOTED FOR GOES AGAINST THE VERY BASICS OF THAT TENET. NOW LET'S TAKE KHATEMI 'S RULES OF LAW. I MEAN, OVER HERE, AS SOON AS YOU TALK ABOUT LAW, IT SEEMS AS IF YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT MAGNA CARTA. AND OF COURSE, WE SHOULD HAVE RULE OF LAW. BUT WITH KHATEMI, RULE OF LAW IS THE RULE OF THE SUPREME LEADER. FOR WOMEN, IT MEANS THAT THEY REDUCE THE AGE OF CONSENT FOR GIRLS FROM EIGHTEEN TO EIGHT AND A HALF LUNAR YEARS. HOST: FOR MARRIAGE? NAFISI: YES. AND THE FATHER HAS THE PERMISSION. I MEAN, EVEN IF YOU ARE FIFTY YEARS OLD, YOU CAN'T MARRY WITHOUT THE PERMISSION OF YOUR FATHER, FOR THE FIRST TIME. AN EIGHT AND A HALF YEAR OLD GIRL IS RESPONSIBLE BEFORE THE LAW, BUT A FIFTY YEAR OLD WOMAN CAN'T LEAVE THE COUNTRY WITHOUT THE CONSENT OF HER HUSBAND. SO THESE ARE THE LAWS. YOU STONE PEOPLE FOR ADULTERY. ISLAMIC DEMOCRACY? I MEAN, DO YOU HAVE JUDAIC DEMOCRACY AND ZOROASTRIAN DEMOCRACY? DEMOCRACY ENTAILS CERTAIN VALUES, AND PEOPLE BELIEVE IN IT. ISLAM IS A RELIGION, AND IT HAS ITS OWN RESPECT AND PLACE AND DIGNITY, YOU KNOW. ISLAMIC DEMOCRACY IS THEOCRACY. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS ISLAMIC DEMOCRACY, AND THE STUDENTS ARE UNDERSTANDING THAT AND DEMONSTRATING IT. HOST: WELL, IN FACT THERE WAS AN INTERESTING REACTION FROM VARIOUS LEADERS OF THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD WHO SENT A LETTER TO PRESIDENT KHATEMI. AND I'LL JUST QUOTE A SHORT PASSAGE FROM IT: "HONORABLE MR. KHATEMI, HOW LONG MUST WE WEEP, WORRY," AND IN QUOTES, OBVIOUSLY BEING SARCASTIC, "'PRACTICE DEMOCRACY' AND SHOW REVOLUTIONARY PATIENCE AT THE RISK OF OUR SYSTEM'S DESTRUCTION." FIRST OF ALL, HOW EXTRAORDINARY IS THAT FOR THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD TO EXPRESS ITSELF IN THAT WAY? NUMBER TWO, ARE THEY EXAGGERATING THE DANGER UNDER WHICH THE REGIME HAS NOW COME, OR IS IT THAT BAD NOW? NAFISI: I THINK THAT THE "HARDLINERS," DO FEEL THE THREAT. I THINK THAT THEY ARE NOT DECEIVED BY THESE WORDS. THEY KNEW THAT ANY REAL REFORM IN IRAN WOULD LEAD TO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE. AND THAT IS WHY THEY ALSO TREAT THE WEST -- I MEAN, THE WEST IS NOT REALLY IMPERIALISM, IT'S NOT ECONOMIC EXPLOITATION. IRAN HAS ALWAYS BEEN PREPARED TO HAVE RELATIONS WITH THE U-S ECONOMICALLY, YOU KNOW. WHERE THEY ARE WORRIED IS CULTURE, AND INVASION OF THE DECADENT WESTERN CULTURE. AND THESE STUDENTS, THE ISLAMIC ONES THAT YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT, THEY HAVE BEEN EXPOSED TO THIS CULTURE, AND BECAUSE THEY WERE DEPRIVED OF IT. I MEAN YOU ARE THE GREAT SATAN -- I KNOW YOU HAVE ABDICATED THAT TITLE RECENTLY -- IT'S THE GREAT SATAN, THE INSIDIOUS TEMPTER OF MEN'S HEARTS, AS THE KORAN TELLS US. SO WHAT WORRIES THEM IS THAT THE YOUTH HAVE SEEN THE WORLD, HAVE FELT THE WORLD. HOST: HOW? NAFISI: WELL, WE HAVE COMPUTERS, AND WE HAVE E-MAIL. THE SATELLITE DISHES ARE FORBIDDEN IN IRAN, BUT EVERYBODY, AT THE RISK OF IMPRISONMENT, WATCHES THE SATELLITE DISHES. DO YOU KNOW THAT THE MOST -- UNFORTUNATELY, I AM NOT PROUD OF THIS -- THE MOST POPULAR SHOW IN TEHRAN IS "BAY WATCH." IN THE POORER AREAS, WHERE THE GOVERNMENT IS WORRIED ABOUT -- OBVIOUSLY THEY ARE NOT WORRIED ABOUT SOMEONE LIKE ME -- PEOPLE BUY ONE SATELLITE DISH AND SELL TICKETS TO THE SHOWS. THIS IS WHAT IS WORRYING THEM. PEOPLE SEE THAT THE GREAT SATAN IS NOT THE REPRESSIVE FORCE HERE, THAT THE PROBLEM IS OURS, AND NOT A FORCE FROM OUTSIDE. HOST: SO KHALID DURAN, THIS IS REALLY A CLASH OF CULTURES INSIDE IRAN? DURAN: OH DEFINITELY. EXCEPT THAT I SEE ALSO THE OTHER PROBLEM THERE OF RULING ELITES. THIS GOVERNMENT HAS INSTALLED ITSELF, I MEAN, AFTER THE REVOLUTION, WITH ITS OWN GROUP OF PEOPLE. IT HAS THEN EXPANDED THAT CIRCLE. THAT WAS, I WOULD SAY, A POLITICAL MASTERPIECE -- THE WAY KHAMENEI USED, FOR EXAMPLE, THE COMMUNIST PARTY TO BEAT THE OTHERS AND THEN, AFTER HE HAD INSTALLED HIMSELF IN POWER, THEN FINISHED OFF THE COMMUNISTS, AND SO ON. SO THAT WAS EXTREMELY WELL DONE, AND HALF EXPANDED THAT CIRCLE OF PEOPLE WHO WOULD DEPEND ON THIS REGIME. OF COURSE NUMBER ONE AMONG THOSE ARE THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? IT IS AN ARMY OF THE REGIME IN ORDER TO MAKE SURE THAT THIS REGIME CANNOT BE TOPPLED BY THE REGULAR ARMY, AS SUCH. IT IS A SECOND ARMY, OR A COUNTER-ARMY. WE SEE THAT SYSTEM, BY THE WAY, NOW ALSO BEING INTRODUCED IN OTHER COUNTRIES. IN SUDAN, THEY ARE FOLLOWING EXACTLY THAT EXAMPLE. AND THOSE PEOPLE HAVE VESTED INTERESTS, AND THEY WILL REALLY FIGHT. AND THAT'S WHY I AM AFRAID WE'LL SEE A LOT OF BLOODSHED IN IRAN BECAUSE, YOU SEE, THE SHAH REGIME, TO MANY PEOPLE'S SURPRISE, TUMBLED VERY QUICKLY AND THERE WAS MUCH LESS RESISTANCE THAN WAS EXPECTED. BUT THIS GROUP HERE, THEY ARE GOING TO RESIST, VERY TERRIBLY, BECAUSE WHERE SHALL THEY GO? THEY CANNOT COME HERE TO THE UNITED STATES AS ALMOST A MILLION IRANIANS HAVE DONE. I MEAN, FOUR MILLION IRANIANS HAVE FLED THAT ISLAMIC REPUBLIC THERE. BUT FOR THE MEN OF THIS REGIME, THIS IS A VERY DIFFICULT PROPOSITION. HOST: LET ME ASK THEN, AZAR NAFISI, IS THERE A POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED REFORM INSIDE IRAN THAT COULD BE PEACEFULLY ACHIEVED? FOR INSTANCE, NEXT FEBRUARY, PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS? THIS PAST YEAR THERE WERE MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS FOR THE FIRST TIME AND THE SO-CALLED REFORM FORCES SWEPT THOSE ELECTIONS. TWENTY MILLION PEOPLE VOTED FOR PRESIDENT KHATEMI. WHAT DO YOU THINK MIGHT HAPPEN IN FEBRUARY, EVEN THOUGH THE CLERICAL REGIME GETS TO VET THE CANDIDATES. IS THAT STILL A POSSIBLE VEHICLE FOR PEACEFUL CHANGE INSIDE IRAN? NAFISI: YOU KNOW, ALL THE CHANGES THAT HAVE BEEN OBTAINED IN IRAN, I MEAN, FOR EXAMPLE, THE OPENING IN TERMS OF THE JOURNALS AND NEWSPAPERS, YOU HAVE ONE STEP FORWARD AND THEN TWO STEPS BACKWARDS. NOW MOST OF THE JOURNALS ARE CLOSED DOWN AND THEIR EDITORS ARE JAILED. AS FOR THE ELECTIONS, I AGAIN WOULD LIKE TO JUST POINT OUT THAT THIS IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS, BECAUSE WHEN WE TALK ABOUT ELECTIONS HERE, ALL PEOPLE ARE FREE TO VOTE FOR THE CANDIDATES AND THERE IS CAMPAIGNING. OVER THERE, ONLY IF YOU ARE ISLAMIC, AND ONLY IF YOU ARE A CERTAIN TYPE OF ISLAMIC PERSON. HOST: SHI'ITE? NAFISI: NOT JUST SHI'ITE. YOU BELONG TO THE HIERARCHY, TO THE CLERICAL HIERARCHY, WHICH PRESIDENT KHATEMI ALSO BELONGED TO, WHICH MEANS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE IRANIAN PEOPLE DO NOT REALLY HAVE A CANDIDATE. IT WOULD BE LIKE SAYING HERE THAT YOU'RE FREE TO ELECT, BUT YOU CAN ONLY ELECT FROM AMONG FIVE HUNDRED SOUTHERN BAPTISTS. YOU'RE FREE TO ELECT, BUT YOU ARE VOTING FOR SOUTHERN BAPTISTS. HOST: SO YOUR ANSWER, IN SHORT, IS THAT THIS IS NOT A VEHICLE FOR A KIND OF REFORMS THAT YOU THINK. . . NAFISI: BUT IT IS USED AS A GESTURE TO THE GOVERNMENT, LIKE THE KHATEMI VOTE, AS A PROTEST VOTE, BECAUSE YOU CAN'T EXPRESS YOURSELF, SO YOU VOTE. YOU SHOW THEM THAT YOU DISAPPROVE, OR THERE ARE CERTAIN THINGS THAT YOU APPROVE OF. I WISH THERE COULD BE NON-VIOLENT CHANGE, AND THAT IS WHAT I CAN HOPE SO MUCH THAT I ALMOST THINK THAT IT IS POSSIBLE, BUT I DOUBT IT. HOST: KHALID DURAN, SOME ANALYSTS SAY, UNLIKE 1979, WITH THE POLITICAL AGENDA OF THE STUDENTS AND THE OTHER PEOPLE -- IT WASN'T JUST STUDENTS, SHOP PEOPLE, LOWER CLASS PEOPLE, JOINED TOGETHER -- THE AGENDA WAS CLEAR: TOPPLE THE SHAH. INSTITUTE AN ISLAMIC STATE. TODAY, THERE IS NO COHERENT PROGRAM BINDING THESE STUDENTS TOGETHER AND JOINING THEM WITH THE LARGER IRANIAN POPULACE, NO CLEAR AGENDA OF WHAT THEY WISH TO ACCOMPLISH. THEREFORE, INTERNAL DIVISIONS WILL PULL IT APART AND NOTHING WILL COME OF THIS. WHAT DO YOU THINK OF ANALYSTS WHO SAY THAT? DURAN: WELL, YES AND NO. I HAVE SOME OTHER INFORMATION THERE. I THINK THAT SOME OF THE IRANIAN OPPOSITION FORCES HAVE A HAND IN THIS PROTEST. THEY HAVE BECOME STRONGER IN RECENT YEARS. THE MUCH MALIGNED PEOPLE'S MUJAHADEEN HAVE TURNED OUT TO BE A FORCE., THEY HAVE BEEN SO MANY TIMES DECLARED TO BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. AND IT HAS BEEN SAID THAT THEY ARE VERY PROPAGANDISTIC, AND NOT AS STRONG AS THEY MAKE THEMSELVES OUT TO BE. THEY HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN THEMSELVES TO BE A FORCE TO RECKON WITH, HOST: INSIDE IRAN? DURAN: INSIDE IRAN. DURING THE PROTESTS, WITH A NUMBER OF ATTACKS ALSO ON THE MEMBERS OF THE REGIME. THEY HAVE FORCED THE REGIME TO TAKE VERY STRONG ACTION IN IRAQ, AND HAVE REALLY MADE THIS REGIME VERY VERY NERVOUS. THE PROBLEM, OF COURSE, IS THAT NOW THIS REGIME IS HITTING BACK. IN THE BEGINNING, I MEAN THEY SUFFERED ENORMOUS NUMBERS OF VICTIMS, THOUSANDS OF THOUSANDS OF YOUNG WOMEN AND MEN WERE EXECUTED. I WONDER HOW THIS IS GOING TO BE NOW. I MEAN OF COURSE THIS IS DANGER. AGAIN THIS REGIME WILL EXECUTE SUCH LARGE NUMBERS OF THEM, AND THEN WHAT NEXT? THAT'S THE QUESTION TO ME. OTHERWISE THESE PROTESTS, AGAIN, ARE NOT THAT UNORGANIZED AS THEY ARE SOMETIMES DESCRIBED HERE. IT'S IN BETWEEN, PARTLY YES, PARTLY VERY SPONTANEOUS AND DISORGANIZED AND NO CLEAR DIRECTION AND NO LEADERSHIP AND SO ON, BUT PARTLY ALSO IT WAS QUITE WELL DONE. HOST: I''M SORRY WE'LL HAVE TO SAVE FOR ANOTHER PROGRAM WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT. BECAUSE I'M AFRAID THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS WEEK. I'D LIKE TO THANK OUR GUESTS -- AZAR NAFISI FROM THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY AND KHALID DURAN, EDITOR OF TRANSISLAM -- FOR JOINING ME THIS WEEK TO DISCUSS THE FUTURE OF IRAN. THIS IS ROBERT REILLY FOR ON THE LINE. 23-Jul-99 11:10 AM EDT (1510 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .
