October 9, 2002 LITTLE OPTIMISM AFTER A/S KELLY'S TRIP TO PYONGYANG

Pyongyang needs aid from the U.S. and its neighbors badly enough to undertake reforms. In addition, many see North Korea's economic and political crisis as so severe that "only direct talks with the U.S. would ensure North Korea's national security." Japan's pro-Pyongyang Chosun Sinbo optimistically predicted that talks can "fundamentally...resolve Korean peninsula issues" and "open a new era of peace and cooperation," highlighting Pyongyang's ostensible desire to open to the world. Some Asian media hoped Kelly's trip signaled a softening U.S. position: China's official Xinhua Daily Telegraph blamed the historically "hostile" U.S. policy towards the DPRK for regional tensions, while South Korea's pro-government Hankyoreh Shinmun warned Washington not to "unilaterally impose its policy" in the talks.

Maintaining dialogue with the North vital to lessening tensions. South Koreans, among others, agreed that "dialogue is better than the alternatives," and praised Washington's willingness to take a "first step towards...peace on the peninsula." Pro-government Daehan Maeil declared the visit shows the U.S. has no intention to "include North Korea among its targets for armed attacks." Meanwhile, France's right of center Le Figaro cautioned that continued talks are vital, even while acknowledging that President Bush may be too focused on Iraq to "deal simultaneously with two members of his 'axis of evil.'"

Little chance for immediate "warming of relations" between Washington and Pyongyang. Japanese analysts were especially hawkish towards Pyongyang, with liberal Asahi calling upon the "economically ailing and isolated Stalinist state" to make "drastic compromises" while moderate Yomiuri cautioned against further talks if Pyongyang remains "dishonest and deceptive." Japan's liberal Mainichi added that "dramatic improvement of relations" is unlikely. Meanwhile, North Korean outlets showed little change of attitude, as illustrated by a Pyongyang radio station's call for the U.S. to "stop blabbering nonsense...[and] renounce its hostile policy" if it wants to engage in meaningful talks.

EDITOR: Ben Goldberg

EDITOR'S NOTE: This analysis is based on 20 reports from 7 countries over October 2 - 9. Editorial excerpts from each country are listed from the most recent date.

EUROPE

FRANCE: "Still No Warming Between Washington And Pyongyang"

Tristan de Bourbon wrote in right-of-center Le Figaro (10/7): "The warming of relations between Washington and Pyongyang is not for the immediate future. Even if Assistant Secretary Kelly's demeanor is not often joyous, upon his return from Korea it was clear he did not particularly enjoy having to face the press. Washington's firm position is not surprising. For the time being George Bush does not want to open the way to a détente that Washington could not fully control. Completely taken with Iraq, Bush does not want to have to deal simultaneously with two members of his 'axis of evil.' But the status quo may not be to the liking of Seoul and Pyongyang, the two main parties concerned. And it could be that the moderating intervention of a third party, such as Russia, China, Europe and/or Japan may become a reality."

ITALY: "Trying To Escape the 'Axis Of Evil'"

An analysis in elite, classical liberal Il Foglio (10/4) stated: "North Korea, the main producer and exporter of mass destruction weapons, is trying to get itself out of the 'evil axis' group, and seems ready to accept weapons inspections and to negotiate with Washington. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kelly is currently in Pyongyang for talks on North Korea's missile and nuclear programs. The visit will last three days and it is the first direct contact between the United States and North Korea over the last two years."

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

CHINA: "How Will Kelly Resolve Obstacles In U.S.-DPRK Relations"

Zhang Jinfang commented in the official Xinhua Daily Telegraph (Xinhua Meiri Dianxun) (10/4): "In fact, the exact obstacle in U.S.-DPRK relations is the U.S. hostile policy toward DPRK. The U.S. always maintains blockades and applies sanctions against DPRK, and it has put DPRK in the list of Axis of Evil. As a result, the two countries are always hostile to each other. Only U.S.-DPRK conversations on the basis of equality can eliminate differences between the two countries and promote the improvement of U.S.-DPRK relations."

CHINA (HONG KONG SAR): "U.S. Asks Too Much"

The pro-PRC Chinese-language Macau Daily News remarked in an editorial (10/8): "Kelly is the most senior U.S. official to meet with the DPRK since former U.S. Secretary of State Albright visited Pyongyang in October 2000. It shows that the U.S. and the DPRK do not want to give up diplomatic means to settle the disputes between them.... A key area of debate is the DPRK's strategic missile development. To strengthen its line of defense in Northeast Asia and to implement its new diplomatic strategy of counter-terrorism, the U.S. is urging the DPRK to stop strategic missile development entirely, not merely delay missile testing, as Kim Jong-Il promised Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi.... Another area of debate is the DPRK's standing armaments, first raised by the Bush administration soon after Bush took office. The U.S. aims to reduce the military strength of the DPRK while leveraging U.S. troops stationed in South Korea and Japan.... Such a tough U.S. stance contrasts sharply with the consensus on security issues reached between Koizumi and Kim Jong-Il. The U.S. is in effect pouring cold water on the warming Japan-DPRK relationship."

"Bold New Era"

The independent English-language South China Morning Post said in an editorial (10/6): "Any sense of disappointment clouding Mr. Kelly's mission must not be allowed to excuse the more hawkish figures in the Republican administration of U.S. President George W. Bush retreating once again. A two-year wait for dialogue has been long enough. Either due to -- or in spite of -- Mr. Bush's inclusion of North Korea in his 'axis of evil' earlier this year, the wider sense of opportunity is palpable.... Significantly, some analysts are noting that he [Kim Jong-il] seems to be dealing with Seoul, Tokyo and Washington simultaneously for once, instead of playing one off against the others. Some even suggest it all seems a case of Asia leading Washington on Asia -- surely positive given Washington's unilateralist tendencies. No single move, of course, has been enough to ease wider fears. The greatest caution must be shown in future diplomatic overtures -- but at least from the view that dialogue is better than the alternatives. North Korea remains very much a desperate, dangerous and unpredictable regime. But, for the sake of progress, it is not one that should be locked away in the dark."

JAPAN: "Dramatic Improvement Of U.S.-DPRK Ties Unlikely"

The liberal Mainichi's Washington correspondent Nakajima observed (10/8): "The DPRK foreign ministry spokesman's description of Assistant Secretary of State Kelly's negotiation attitude during his visit to Pyongyang as extremely arrogant was a reaction that 'fell within what Washington had actually anticipated.' Despite this, U.S.-DPRK relations will not probably go down to a dangerously low level. Tension on the Korean Peninsula will not heighten, either. But this negative response may indicate that the North will not propose further meetings for the time being, making the dramatic improvement of relations unlikely. The Bush administration thinks it is not a reconciliatory approach but diplomatic pressure that will be effective in changing the attitude of the North, whom the U.S. calls part of an 'axis of evil,' along with Iran and Iraq."

"DPRK Must Show Its Sincerity"

The top-circulation, moderate Yomiuri editorialized (10/7): "The DPRK must seriously heed the U.S. warning, conveyed by Assistant Secretary of State Kelly during his three-day visit to Pyongyang, that it must accept early and thorough IAEA nuclear inspections, suspend its missile development and export program, and settle abduction and human rights issues. These are necessary steps toward closer relations with the U.S. and Japan. Kelly's visit to Pyongyang could contribute to an improvement in relations between Washington and Pyongyang. What comes out of the visit hinges on what North Korea does to dispel international concerns about the danger it represents. The North Koreans must realize they cannot promote dialogue with the U.S. and Japan, if they remain dishonest and deceptive."

"North Korea Must Dispel International Concerns"

An editorial in the liberal Asahi observed (10/7): "We welcome Assistant Secretary of State Kelly's 'frank' and 'useful' meetings with North Korean officials in Pyongyang. The North must make a drastic compromise to address nuclear/missile, abduction, human rights and other issues, if it is eager to improve ties with the U.S. Pyongyang must be aware of the need to settle these urgent problems to ensure its survival. The common goal among the U.S, Japan and South Korea is to bring this economically ailing and isolated Stalinist state into the world community, reduce its threat and friction (with neighboring nations) and to restore peace and stability in the Northeast Asian region."

"Seize The Chance For Peace"

The English-language moderate Japan Times editorialized (10/5): "At their historic Pyongyang summit Sept. 17, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il opened a new chapter in the history of Northeast Asia by agreeing to resume bilateral talks on diplomatic normalization this month. The agreement was announced in the Pyongyang declaration the two leaders signed to ease tensions in the region, which had continued for more than 50 years after the end of World War II. ASEM's Copenhagen political declaration for peace on the Korean Peninsula praised Koizumi's diplomatic initiative and reconfirmed the importance of engaging North Korea in the international community through constructive dialogue. We should not lose sight of the historic significance of the Pyongyang summit, which marked a step forward to peace and stability in Northeast Asia, as well as Japanese-North Korean diplomatic normalization."

"Biased Analyses Of The DPRK"

The economic-focused Nihon Keizai's Hong Kong correspondent (10/4) expressed skepticism about "arbitrary" media and expert analyses of the DPRK, observing: "North Korea is not likely to move toward a China-style open-door policy. The North has only raised official rates to 'crack down on' a prevailing black market economy. It may be returning to a controlled economy. The U.S. is keeping a close and 'strict' watch on the outcome of the Sept. 17 Koizumi-Kim summit in Pyongyang. Countries that praised the summit include China and Russia, which would benefit from (the normalization of Japan-DPRK ties and Japan's massive economic assistance). At a time when there is a strong likelihood that the U.S. will take strong economic and military actions against the North, Koizumi's diplomatic move was tantamount to driving a wedge into the administration's hard-line stance. The fact that there have been no 'overt' reports since the 1990s on North Korea's abductions of Japanese nationals does not mean the North is eager to improve ties with Japan but indicates that this does not give the U.S. another piece of 'concrete evidence' proving the North is a terrorist state. The U.S.'s call for suspending nuclear/missile development also poses a 'threat' to Pyongyang. The North Koreans do not want Japan to take the initiative in bringing them to the international community because Pyongyang believes that only direct talks with the U.S. would ensure its national security."

"U.S. Special Envoy's P'yongyang Visit"

Official, Korean-language organ of the pro-DPRK General Association of Korean Residents in Japan, Choson Sinbo, declared (10/2): "As Choson Sinbo has pointed out on many occasions, our fatherland has entered a great changing period, as can be seen from the dispatch of athletes and supporters to the Pusan Asian Games, the start of construction for the connection of the West Coast and East Coast railways and roads, the establishment of the Sinuiju Special Administrative Region, and the announcement of the DPRK-Japan P'yongyang Declaration. The only remaining issue is the improvement of DPRK-US relations. If the US special envoy and our country discuss pending issues and reach an agreement at this dynamic juncture, they will fundamentally be able to resolve Korean peninsula issues that have been bound by the serious Cold War confrontation and open a new era of peace and cooperation between the DPRK and the United States. Then, the normalization of DPRK-Japan relations will be further accelerated and so will the day of reunification."

NORTH KOREA: "US Warmonger's Curse Distorting The Reality"

North Korea's state-run P'yongyang Broadcasting Station (PBS) declared (10/5): "On many occasions we have expressed a willingness to respond to dialogue on ways to eliminate matters causing concern for US security, if the US administration is ready to give up its hostile policy toward the DPRK. Our principled stance regarding DPRK-US dialogue remains unchanged. The US warmongers should stop blabbering nonsense that distorts the reality, renounce its hostile policy toward the DPRK, and behave properly."

SINGAPORE: "Come Out To Play"

The pro-government Straits Times (10/8) opined: "Any sort of engagement between two parties deeply distrustful of each other is a constructive development, more so as the cold-war undertones of the strange relationship have been spiced by the Bush administration's act of demonising Mr Kim Jong Il. But the visit of Mr James Kelly, an assistant secretary of state, will stimulate speculation more than it would clarify the state of freeze between the two countries. Was this real progress? The scheduled news conferences in Seoul and Tokyo which Mr Kelly cancelled...will feed impressions that the Americans had no real enthusiasm for the approach.... Unless an undertaking is made by both sides to hold substantive follow-up talks fairly soon, it is best not to read too much into the Kelly visit. It is possible the US, Japan and South Korea prefer to coordinate their responses unhindered by public disclosures. China and Russia have an abiding interest in the diplomatic shuffle over the Korean question, and it would not do to show one's hand.... But a piece of speculation gaining currency is that the US, preoccupied as it is with Iraq, would prefer to leave Pyongyang on the back-burner but for the fact that Japan, China, Russia and South Korea have aggressively been staking out their positions.... How the US might deal its next hand in this absorbing game will be apparent when it chooses to respond to Pyongyang's offer to be a regular guy."

SOUTH KOREA: "Will Military Confrontation On The Peninsula Be Reduced?"

The pro-government Hankyoreh Shinmun editorialized (10/9): "According to a report by the Kyodo News Agency citing a Russian source, North Korea is considering reducing its armed forces by 20,000 to 50,000 in stages.... Given that a cut in armed forces is generally premised on mutual military confidence building, it is too early to pin high hopes on the report. However, looking at the North's recent flexible moves toward inter-Korean projects, including the reconnection of cross-border rail and road links, it is highly likely that Pyongyang has made certain decisions on military matters.. It is quite regrettable to see the U.S. maintain its hard-line stance toward the North despite these visible changes in the country. The recent North Korean criticism of Mr. Kelly's arrogant attitude during his visit to Pyongyang can be interpreted as resistance to U.S. high-handedness in demanding North Korea surrender on nuclear and missile issues.. We urge the U.S. to seriously consider what it should do for peace and reconciliation on the peninsula."

"DPRK-US Dialogue Is Hoped To Continue"

The pro-government Hankyoreh Shinmun editorialized (10/6): "It is still too early to evaluate the outcome of the visit to North Korea by James Kelly, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, who went to P'yongyang as US President George Bush's special envoy, and his party or try to figure out the future. This is because special envoy Kelly has not spoken about the results of his visit except for a brief statement issued upon arriving in Seoul after rounding up his itinerary. No agreement was announced at the conclusion of the North Korea-US talks and no decision was made as to whether or not there would be future talks. So, it is hard to be optimistic about smoothing relations between the two countries.... Now that it has sounded out North Korea's intention, what attitude the Bush administration will take is an issue of grave concern. It is up to the Bush administration, which has initiated dialogue with North Korea, on whether it will keep making efforts toward settling Korean peninsula issues through negotiations or let itself be persuaded by the hard-liners who consider North Korea's "concession" unsatisfactory and let the issues become tangled again. We hope the US special envoy's North Korea visit, which has come at the end of 21 months of twists and turns, will serve as the first step toward solidifying peace on the Korean peninsula. The government should concentrate all its diplomatic efforts on steering the United States to advance in this direction."

"Full-Fledged DPRK-US Talks In Order"

The pro-government Daehan Maeil opined (10/6): "The DPRK-US dialog held for the first time in one year and nine months since the inception of the Bush administration produced nothing more than an in-depth discussion of each other's position. Envoy Kelly's visit to North Korea had generated a great amount of interest and hope as a potential opportunity to promote reconciliation on the Korean peninsula and peace in Northeast Asia. However, it did not bring about any substantial agreement. Yet, that is not something to get disappointed over. The frank exchange of opinions about pending issues between North Korea and the United States should be the first step toward resolving their problems. North Korea has lately demonstrated a great change by making major concessions on Japanese demands in connection with Japanese abductee issues. Meanwhile, the United States keeps a tight rein on its hard-line stance [toward North Korea], as it continues to associate North Korea with "an axis of evil" and "a rogue state." Furthermore, targeting Iraq, the United States has declared a new security strategy that calls for a preemptive strike, if necessary, to remove a threat in advance. Given the recent series of US foreign policy moves, the United States' willingness to resolve pending issues with North Korea through dialog is understood as intention not to include North Korea among its targets for armed attacks.... The Bush administration should push forward DPRK-US relations for the great cause of ending the Cold War and establishing peace on the Korean peninsula. In that sense, follow-up dialog between North Korea and the United States should become talks aimed at full-fledged efforts to narrow the differences of perception about pending issues. Coordination among the ROK, the United States, and Japan will also be necessary ahead of follow-up dialog. Most of all, the earlier follow-up dialog is held, the better it is. Hopefully, North Korea, on its part, will come to a full-fledged DPRK-US dialog with a specific offer based on a change of thinking, as demonstrated in the DPRK-Japan summit, knowing that its internal economic change will never be successful without improvement in DPRK-US relations."

"Russia Ups The Diplomatic Ante"

Kim Young-hie wrote in the conservative Joong Ang Ilbo (10/6): "Until now, we've always thought that China was the country that exercised the largest influence on North Korea. Certainly the South Korean government has not hidden its impression that China's interventions have played a major role in allowing the North-South dialogue, including the summit meeting on June 15, 2000, to progress this far. Seoul's low-profile diplomacy toward China could also be explained in that context. But the comments of Russian participants at the Korea-Russia Forum held in Seoul recently tell a different story. According to the Russians, North Korea now relies far more on Russia for advice on its foreign affairs than on China. In particular, the Russians claim that they played a key role in arranging the North Korea-Japan summit last month.... Russia seems eager to fill the policy vacuum left by Washington's rigid stance toward Pyeongyang. We must readjust our Japan and Russia policy."

"If U.S.-DPRK Dialogue Is To See Progress"

The pro-government Hankyoreh Shinmun editorialized (10/3): "The U.S. is largely responsible for the deterioration of relations between the U.S. and the DPRK. U.S. hardliners, speaking for industry and the military in calling for increased defense costs and a missile defense system, have taken the lead in exaggerating the threat North Korea poses by focusing on nuclear and missile issues.. At the U.S.-DPRK talks, the U.S. should show its sincerity and take a comprehensive approach instead of being obsessed with nuclear and missile issues. Progress in the U.S.-DPRK dialogue is unlikely if the U.S. unilaterally imposes its policy on North Korea as it did with Iraq."

"Kelly's North Korea Visit"

Reporter Sim Kyu-sok wrote for semi-official Yonhap news agency (10/3): "Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly will be the second [special envoy] to sit across from the North-side officials in P'yongyang, following William Perry, then North Korea policy coordinator during the Clinton administration.... Special Envoy Perry, who went to the North with proposed recommendations from South Korea, the United States, and Japan, served an extremely important role of explaining them to the North-side officials. At the time, the US officials went to the North with a gift bundle of guaranteeing [North Korea's] safety, including no use of force, easing economic sanctions against the North, offering economic cooperation loans, and improving DPRK-US and DRPK-Japan relations, if the North side cooperates. Such a 'carrot' is thought to have been effective with the North side.... The United States is not projected to reach immediate agreement on specific issues with North Korea during the upcoming talks.... Interest is focusing on whether the Korean peninsula's recently created structure of dynamics centered on North-South and DPRK-Japan talks can be changed into one under the United States' initiative, as it had been during the Clinton administration."

"If U.S.-DPRK Dialogue Is To See Progress"

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