DATE=1/14/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-42360 TITLE=TURKEY/GREECE/CYPRUS BYLINE=AMBERIN ZAMAN DATELINE=ANKARA CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: SENIOR TURKISH OFFICIALS SAY GREEK PLANS TO DEPLOY RUSSIAN MADE S-300 SURFACE-TO-AIR MISSILES ON THE ISLAND OF CRETE WILL DANGEROUSLY ESCALATE MILITARY TENSIONS BETWEEN THE TWO NATO ALLIES. GREECE LAST MONTH DECLARED IT WOULD PROBABLY DEPLOY THE MISSILES AFTER GREEK-CYPRIOT PRESIDENT GLAFCOS CLERIDES ANNOUNCED HIS GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT DEPLOY THE CONTROVERSIAL MISSILES ON THE DIVIDED ISLAND OF CYPRUS. MR CLERIDES' DECISION FOLLOWED SUSTAINED TURKISH THREATS TO DESTROY THE MISSILES IF THEY WERE DEPLOYED. AMBERIN ZAMAN HAS MORE FROM ANKARA. TEXT: THE GREEK-CYPRIOT GOVERNMENT'S PERCEIVED RETREAT IN THE FACE OF TURKISH MILITARY THREATS WAS WIDELY HAILED BY THE WEST AS MARKING AN END TO WHAT CAME TO BE KNOWN AS THE "S-300 CRISIS." MANY FEARED TURKISH MILITARY ACTION AGAINST THE GREEK CYPRIOTS COULD ESCALATE INTO A BROADER CONFLICT PITTING TURKEY AGAINST ITS FELLOW NATO MEMBER, GREECE. TURKEY'S MINISTER RESPONSIBLE FOR CYPRUS, SUKRU SINA GUREL, SAYS THE S-300 CRISIS IS NOT OVER. /// BEGIN GUREL ACT IN ENGLISH /// I WISH I COULD SAY THAT. BUT UNFORTUNATELY THE ONLY WAY WE CAN VISUALIZE, IN ORDER TO SAY THAT THE CRISIS IS OVER, CAN BE AN OPEN AND VERY CLEAR DECLARATION ON THE PART OF THE GREEK CYPRIOTS AND GREEK ADMINISTRATION TO THE EFFECT THAT THESE MISSILES WILL NOT BE DEPLOYED IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN, IN ANY PLACE IN EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN, BUT UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE NOT AT THAT STAGE YET. /// END ACT /// MR. GUREL WARNS THAT SHOULD THE MISSILES BE DEPLOYED ON CRETE THIS WILL MERELY SHIFT THE CRISIS AWAY FROM CYPRUS TO THE AEGEAN SEA, WHERE TURKEY AND GREECE ARE LOCKED IN BITTER DISPUTES OVER TERRITORIAL WATERS AND AIRSPACE. /// 2ND GUREL ACT /// IF THAT WERE TO TAKE PLACE THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE THREAT THOSE MISSILES CREATE AND THE CYPRUS QUESTION WILL NOT BE BROKEN. AND IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LINKAGE ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THE AEGEAN ISSUES AND A THREAT AGAINST THE BALANCE IN THE AEGEAN AND THOSE MISSILES IN CRETE. SO, THEREFORE DEPLOYMENT IN CRETE WILL CREATE FURTHER DIFFICULTIES AND A NEW THREAT AGAINST NOT ONLY TURKEY, BUT ALSO AGAINST THE BALANCE IN THE WHOLE REGION. /// END GUREL ACT /// SOME ANALYSTS SAY THAT SHOULD GREECE PROCEED WITH PLANS TO DEPLOY THE MISSILES ON CRETE THIS WOULD ALSO POSE PROBLEMS FOR NATO. HASAN UNAL IS AN EXPERT ON THE BALKANS AT ANKARA'S BILKENT UNIVERSITY. /// BEGIN UNAL ACT /// IF THE MISSILES ARE DEPLOYED IN THE REAL MILITARY SENSE ON THE EASTERN PART OF CRETE, THESE MISSILES ARE LIKELY TO CREATE A NUMBER OF PROBLEMS BOTH FOR GREECE AND FOR NATO. THE GREEKS ARE NOT ONLY BRINGING THE MISSILES FROM THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, BUT ALSO RUSSIAN OFFICES AND RUSSIAN TECHNICIANS WOULD BE COMING TO CRETE TO OPERATE THESE MISSILES AND THESE MISSILES' RADAR SYSTEM IS QUITE EFFECTIVE. THEREFORE ALL OF THE ACTIVITIES OF THE NATO BASES ON THE SAME ISLAND WOULD BE UNDER SCRUTINY BY THE RUSSIAN OFFICERS AND THE RUSSIAN TECHNICIANS. /// END UNAL ACT /// RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES HAVE RECENTLY TAKEN A DOWNTURN. TURKEY AND GREECE NEARLY WENT TO WAR IN 1996 OVER A TINY ROCK ISLAND IN THE AEGEAN KNOWN AS IMIA KARDAK AND WAR PLANES FROM BOTH COUNTRIES ROUTINELY CONFRONT EACH OTHER IN DISPUTED AIR SPACE OVER THE AEGEAN. THE TWO COUNTRIES LAST FOUGHT EACH OTHER IN 1974, WHEN TURKISH TROOPS INTERVENED ON CYPRUS AFTER GREEK CYPRIOT NATIONALISTS TRIED TO MOUNT A COUP AIMED AT MAKING THE ISLAND PART OF GREECE. SINCE THEN, CYPRUS HAS REMAINED DIVIDED BETWEEN THE GREEK SOUTH AND THE TURKISH NORTH. (SIGNED) LON/AZ/RAE 15-Jan-99 9:22 AM EST (1422 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .
