DATE=10/8/1999 TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT TITLE=CHINA / ECON (L-ONLY) NUMBER=2-254808 BYLINE=ELAINE JOHANSON DATELINE=NEW YORK CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: A new report predicts China's economy is set to recover in the year two-thousand -- with China on track to grow by eight to 10 percent in the second half of this year. The Conference Board, a private business research group, says part of that recovery is due to a financial rebound throughout Asia. V-O-A correspondent Elaine Johanson has more from New York: TEXT: The Conference Board says consumer spending in China has picked up recently, and -- if the past two months are any guide -- exports are rebounding substantially. The Board adds signs of recovery in Japan bode well for China, as well as the rest of the region. The Conference Board notes it is almost fashionable to be pessimistic about China's future. But it says everything seems to point in the opposite direction, and the Chinese government deserves some credit. While the present slowdown in China is a result of a structural policy re-alignment in Beijing, the Board says it was that shift that reversed China's trade deficit, restored foreign-exchange reserves and balanced the government budget. The analysis goes on to say that if China stays on its current solid growth path, it will overtake the Philippines and Indonesia in per-capita income early in the next decade. At the same time, Conference Board economists say China's future role as a regional power remains cloudy because -- like Japan -- it is too reliant on exports for economic growth. The economists question whether China, as the major market economy in Asia, can sustain its trade surpluses as a matter of policy. (Signed) NEB/NY/EJ/LSF/WTW 08-Oct-1999 12:35 PM EDT (08-Oct-1999 1635 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .
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