Iran's Space Planning

Iran’s Space Plans

Science & Technology Budget Three Year Fiscal Planning Cycle

March 25, - April 12, 2008

Disclaimer

he opinions and evaluations stated here in are only the authors and cannot be construed to reflect those of any Government agency, company, institute or association. It is based on public information, circumstantial evidence, informed speculation, declassified U.S. intelligence community documents, official Iranian and North Korean government documents and histories, oral histories, interviews and reverse engineering analysis. As with all data regarding the Iranian and North Korean strategic space and ballistic missile programs, this analysis is subject to revision--and represents a work in progress

Iran’s Science & Technology Budget Three Year Fiscal Planning Cycle

Iran plans to launch two more research and development “Safir” boosters into space to finish its development before attempting to launch the Omid [Hope] scientific satellite in the summer of 2008 according to its president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The defense minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said in a speech on February 4, 2008 during the inauguration of the new Iranian Space launch Center located in Semnan province. The space industry infrastructure located in the the Zelzal (earthquake), Shahid Hemmat Industrial group R&D missile & space industry infrastructure near Hamasin a suburb of Tehran in the Tehran province.

Omid [Hope] Satellite

He indicated that the Omid [Hope] satellite would be launched during the next Khordad-87 between May 21 and June 22, 2008 or during the following Khordad during the year 2008 which started March 20, 2008 for the Iranian Islamic calendar. C ompleting the ten year research and development Omid [Hope] satellite project with its successful orbiting in 2008 is mandated to be completed before March 20, 2009 . It is to be placed in a high inclination orbit (perhaps 62-64 degrees) with a 650 kilometer circular obit altitude passing over Iran six times daily. The box shaped satellite has many external antennas’ on its outer surfaces that are covered with a thermal insulation blanket. There are no obvious solar arrays on the outer shell indicating battery powered a short life satellite. It contains many black box instruments giving it a mass in the 40-100 kilogram range as expected.

Fiscal Planning Cycles

The defense minister further iterated that the plans were a part of the guide lines of the supreme leader Ali Khamene'i, policies and objectives of the ninth government, and the twenty year economic outlook planning. More details were revealed in this series of speeches and news discussions that the Iranian fiscal planning system is based on Three Year Plans fiscal cycles with a twenty year future Outlook Forecasting Plan fiscal planning cycle. Additionally it was stated that the Iranian government had allocated $500 million dollars equivalency to the space effort in 2005. There may also be featured a six or nine or twelve year Forecast plan fiscal planning cycle. This reminds us of the Soviet, Chinese and North Korean, Five Year Plan (FYP) fiscal planning cycles with its ten year forecast planning and fifteen year future outlook fiscal planning cycle. It would appear that the Iranian forecast plan and outlook plan fiscal planning cycles feeds the three year plans (TYP) development in a similar manned to that seen in the authoritarian Soviet, Chinese and North Korean regimes fiscal planning cycles make them immensely predictable.

Why This is Possible

According to James T. Westwood, in 1978, while employed as a senior special research analyst for one of the three-letter national intelligence agencies, he discovered and crystallized into application, a novel, original technique for interpreting and predicting all of the military and space programs of the former Soviet Union with consistent accuracy and reliability. There came from this numerous applications and non-surprises, e.g., that the ballistic missile programs, with their space rocket off-shoots (to coin a phrase), were arguably the most reliable and revealing among the thousands of armor, aircraft, ship, artillery, etc. military hardware and operations programs. In a recent interview with this author, Westwood says that to the extent that the military programs of the PRC as well as North Korea and Iran long may have replicated the former Soviet Union's national planning schema, the same methodology likely can successfully illuminate China's, Iran’s and North Korea’s future military and space programs. The present author was taught this methodology by Westwood in a Continuing Engineering Education short course at the George Washington University in the late 1980’s.

Conferring with James T. Westwood, senior consultant of Military Science and Defense Analytics, Unionville VA, he said that C.I.A. failed again in a systemic and incredible manner ever to be able to reliably predict the strategic behavior of the former Soviet Union in terms of "reverse analysis," to wit, reading the tea leaves from the native, bureaucratic Soviet perspective --planning and projecting on the same basis and by same method as did the former USSR. This was, he said, the "great plan," the GOSPLAN. He hoped, this magnificent blunder is not now being repeated with respect to the Peoples' Republic of China, Iran and North Korea. Because the current, active PRC, North Korean and more recently Iranian national planning scheme is based on the former Soviet model and is running now in phase for over a half-century, Westwood emphasized, it should not be a problem to draw a matrix and populate it in detail from 1953 on in order to have, at long suffering last, a reliable analytic tool for interpreting and forecasting Chinese weapons, space, energy and a host of other, important, national programs and projects -- in planning now, and in the recent past, for pay-off in the future.

An example of this immense predictability is show as D efense minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar went on to describe in his speech on February 4, 2008 that Iran intends through three, three year cycles in years 1386-1388 [2008-2010] to develop the nations satellite launching capability with the first satellite launch. This is to be followed by the years 1388-1391 [2010-2013] introductions of thedevelopment of two telecommunication and research satellites, a telemetry station as well as a joint satellite program with Islamic countries called Besharat. That is to be further followed with the years 1392-1394 [2013-2015] effort for the development of two remote-sensing satellites for high resolution imagery capability and the development of the launch vehicle capability to place satellite in lower orbits or as high as 10,000 kilometers among our other Science and Technology aerospace related projects planned. (1) That is to launch five satellites on or before and through 2010-2015.

This nothing less than portended the introduction of an Iranian variant of the North Korean Taep’o-dong-2C/3 or a booster based on the rapidly advancing solid propellant booster program based on the Ashura strategic ballistic missile or both within the next three to nine years. The reasoning being that the very masses of the spacecraft envisioned will require these class space boosters masquerading ICBM developments. This is a very significant national security development long anticipated and is already evident from the space launch infrastructure in development south east of Semnan since the years 2000-2004 as seen in the “Google Earth” imagery and subsequent recent Iranian released news videoavailable on “You Tube” (4, 5) cpv

We have to understand why these programs are being pursued by Iran . It has been the plan like in the West to apply from the total available government funding about 40% to basic scientific research to push the basic sciences and about 60% of the available funding to push the basic technologies, (research & development). This is done to drive the national economy and to provide for the citizenry’s well being. Above all, it is to provide for the national security of the nation by keeping the Iranians technologically competitive with the technologically advanced world leadership. Typically this so called budget funding for the command economy operated through the three year plans via the State controlled allocation of material resources and personnel which is broken down between strictly military programs and civil military duel purpose programs. So it would indeed appear that Iran is following its own variant of the Soviet, Chinese and North Koran planned fiscal economy cyclic process that makes all things immensely predictable.

However does this planning address the questions is this realistically possible for Iran to achieve such world equaling prominence in science and technology or are their dreams delusional to their present theocracy policies and leadership that is abhorrent to the world community? They are certainly suggesting that they want to become competitive in the world market in science and technology for obvious duel purpose reasoning to lead the mausoleum world community for the same reasons that other nations have sought to achieve similar goals.

Credits, References:

1. Originally published by Fars News Agency website, Tehran , in Persian 0845 4 Feb 08. (c) 2008 BBC Monitoring Newsfile. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved. Story from REDORBIT NEWS:
http://www.redorbit.com/news/display/?id=1240731 Published: 2008/02/04 09:00:44 CST
© RedOrbit 2005, Iran to Launch Omid Satellite in June 08, to Build Remote-Sensing Satellite, Text of report by Iranian conservative, privately = owned Fars News Agency website, Tehran February 4, 2008

4. http://hometown.aol.de/SLVehicles2/Safir-IRILV/Safir.htm Iran 's first space launch vehicle Safir IRILV, Norbert Brügge, Germany

5. http://youtube.com/watch?v=S3mSNxhILo0&feature=related , Various Iranian video’s on the missile and space industry,

Iran Launches Space Programme, Fires Research Rocket video

Iran Launched a Rocket to Send First Satellite video

Iran Space Center video (Persian)

Iran Test Launches Kavoshgar-1 Space Rocket video

6. http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=86111505392/4.08, News – English, News number:8611150539, 2008-02-04 – 15:36 , Iran Tests Satellite Rocket Launcher, Tehran (FNA) Semnan province.

7. http://en.rian.ru/world/20080204/98302047.html, Iran tests sounding rocket. Unveils first homemade satellite, 04/02/2008 .

8. http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=4163&sectionid=351020101, Iran ’s Kavoshgar I lifts off for space 2/4/2008

9. http://www.isna.ir/Main?NewsView.aspx?ID=News-1080968&Lang=E, Iran launches first space center 2/4/2008

10. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22995937/ Iran unveils space center, launches rocket by Ali Akbar Dareini Associated Press Tehran, Iran, 2/4/2008

11. http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/library/news/2008/space-080211-irna01.htm2 more rockets to be launched – Ahmadinejad, IRNA - Islamic Republic News Agency, Tehran, Iran, Feb. 11, 2008

12. http://www.space-travel.com/reports/Ahmadinejad_Says_Iran_Will_Launch_Two More_... , Ahmadinejad Says Iran Will Launch Two More Satellites, Tehran , Iran (AFP) 2/11/2008

13. http://www.spacemart.com/reports/Iran_says_its_space_probe_sending_data_to_to_Earth_999... , Iran says its space probe sending data to earth, Tehran , Iran (AFP) 2/17/2008

14. John Locker - private correspondence February 2008

15. Nicholas Badenhorst – private correspondence February. March 2008

Iran ’s Emerging Space Programs

March 15, 2007 – April 1, 2008

Disclaimer

The opinions and evaluations stated here in are only the authors and cannot be construed to reflect those of any Government agency, company, institute or association. It is based on public information, circumstantial evidence, informed speculation, declassified U.S. intelligence community documents, official Iranian and North Korean government documents and histories, oral histories, interviews and reverse engineering analysis. As with all data regarding the Iranian and North Korean strategic space and ballistic missile programs, this analysis is subject to revision--and represents a work in progress.

?Iran ’s Emerging Space Programs

The appearance of Iran ’s space program is tied to foreign cooperation and the parallel development of its satellites and launch vehicles. The strategic ballistic missile Shahab-4 design as originally envisioned was apparently shelved but reworked into a satellite launch application with its strategic mission replaced by the Shahab-3B and No-dong-B and Ghadr-101 & Ghadr-110-/Ashura ballistic missiles. Still under development Shahab-5 and 6 launch vehicle programs have been redirected due to joint North Korean and Iranian revised Taep’o-dong-2C/3 design. The three primary countries that Iran is cooperating with are Russia , China and North Korea . Iran is trying to develop an indigenous spacecraft, satellite development industry through this cooperation and purchased “know how” and technology transfer. China has apparently already launched Iran ’s initial satellite payload offerings attached to China ’s new whether satellites. In the future Iran intends to launch its own satellites on its indigenous Shahab-3 based two & three stage “Safir” launch vehicle and or other jointly developed boosters but today Iran remains dependent on foreign launch providers to place its payload into Earth orbit. This could begin to change this year (2007 -2008) but that has been predicted since 2001 but only time will tell when this will occur. This long term delay probably reflects the three year fiscal planning cycle of long term development similar to North Korea and the Former Soviet Union. Their statements tend to speak as if they have it now when it is as much as one or two, three year plans away from coming to fruition.

As early as June 27, 1998 an agreement in Iran was signed to design, construct and launch a communications research, Earth observation satellite “Mesbah”, and a small technological satellite. This agreement was with the Minister of Higher Education, Mostafa Moin and the Minister of Post, Telegraph, and Telephone, Minister Reza Arefvazdi. The Mesbah 60 kilogram 50 centimeter cubical technology satellite laboratory model was improved for launch by July 2005 satellite was to be launched within the next three years (2001) of signing with apparently China and Russia’s Glavkosmos organization as a piggy-back payload on a Russian and a Chinese booster. This first Meshah satellite has yet to be launched but the second one was launch as the Shinah-1/Meshab-2 on October 27, 2005 on the Russian Cosmos C-1 booster from the Plesetsk, Cosmodrome.

The project was to be run by The Scientific and Industrial Research organization of Iran and its Center for Telecommunications Research. This is one of several communication satellite projects being developed by Iran. Besides the communication satellites two mini-satellites were being developed. The SMMS (Small multi-mission Satellite) is a joint venture payload between China, Iran, South Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Thailand and Bangladesh under the Asian-Pacific organization. It was to be launched on a Long March-4 in 2000 and 2001 as a part of the China’s weather satellite program. This has apparently taken place. The 380 kilograms satellite is based on the CAST-968B platform developed by China’s space industry of the PRC Academy of Space Technology. It will carry a 100kg Multi-spectral CCD imaging camera. The camera is capable of wide field 20 meters resolution imaging. (1)

Space News added more in 1999 noting that, Mostafa Safari Iran’s deputy minister of Post and Telegraph telephones-Domestic satellite communications program approved early in 1999 for 2002 launch called the Zahreh. Solicited bids for the satellites development contract were expected to come from France, India, China, and Russia for the KU frequency band Zahreh system. The program contract called for considerable technology transfer to Iran as a requirement for winning the contract with provisions to train Iran’s satellite engineers and technicians. The satellites are to be placed 34 degrees East and 47 degrees East above the equator in the appropriate geo-stationary satellite orbit slot. (2) This satellite program underwent considerable delay but was finally contracted with a Russian firm January 26, 2005.

On July 16, 1999, The Washington Times disclosed some new information on the “Kosar” satellite launch vehicle of Iran and its relationship to North Korea’s Taep’o-dong-2. Basically the article stated that Iran and North Korea are working together mutually contributing to each other’s launch vehicle development programs. It further revealed that the Iranians come in a specially equipped Boeing-707 that is apparently filled with Chinese supplied telemetry monitoring equipment for satellite and ballistic missile test launches as previously reported by the Washington Times. Iran’s Kosar launch vehicle was also suggested to be the Iranian variant of the North Korea’s Taep’o-dong-2A booster concept now abandoned for the TD-2C/3. The new missile, named Kosar, was said to be undergoing design development with assistance from Russian aerospace technicians and state-run entities and that it was powered with a version of Russia’s RD-216 liquid fuel booster engine. It was based on new information suggesting there had been another rocket engine technology transfer from a Russian entity. (3) No further clarifying information on this has since surfaced. It could potentially be related to a water pump project that was associated with Energomash that was dropped as technology transfer issue later with no sanctions being issued by the United States.

The RD-216 is an Energomash engine originally used on the Skean/SS-5/R-14, IRBM, Saddler/SS-7/R-16, ICBM and Sasin/R-26 ICBM missiles developed during the cold war. Kosar means-Stream of eternal life in paradise. Israeli Intelligence calls this booster the Shahab-5 and Shahab-6. It was further noted that new booster testing activities was observed at the Iranian Missile test center “near Shahroud East of Tehran in late April”. “We’ve seen them stack stages, then taking them down over the past six weeks,” (April May and early June 1999) one analyst said. “This strongly suggests they will be launching a multi-stage missile.” According to Kenneth R. Timmerman, President of Middle East Data Project, Inc. (3) This is now understood to be the Taep’o-dong-1 model purchased by Iran from North Korea.

Space News noted on Aug. 18, 1999 that Iran planned to launch three satellites, (2002-2003) the two Comsat‘s Zahreh and (1) minor multipurpose bird S. M. M. S. and one Mesbah. (4)

On January 25, 2000 the voice of Iran IRIFPN release the following information about the requested Chinese assistance on Iran’s satellite program ---- “work towards exchanging idea’s in areas such as manufacturing of satellites. --------. Called for cooperation between Iranian and Chinese experts in the field, he expressed the hope that China (would) share its experience and knowledge in that sphere with Iran”. (5)

Reuters on May 6, 2000 offered the following information that Iran expected to place two small communications satellites in Earth orbit “within the next few months---“. The satellites were to be placed into a 620 Earth orbit according to Mohammad Reza Aref the Minister of Communications. They are “two small Iranian manufactured satellites one built with Russian cooperation and the other with eight (Including Iran as a part of the Asian-Pacific Organization) other regional countries – The daily Jomhuri-ye Eslami said.” (6) Russia as reported in Space News is said to be prepared to build one Iranian satellite and were confident of receiving the contract.(7)

Missile Program Chief Engineers Dies

It was reported in the Jerusalem Post on July 12, 2001 which was quoting the Saudi Arabian newspaper Ashark al-Awsat that Ali Mahmudi Mimand the Chief engineer in the Iranian Ministries Satellites and Aeronautics Industry had passed away under mysterious circumstances that have not been explained. He was called the “father of Iran’s Missiles”. This is paramount to the loss of the Designer General of Iran’s missile program which inevitable will cause some set backs in the program which is already delayed due to development problems. Chief Engineer Mimand headed the Zelzal (earthquake), Shahid Hemat Industrial group at its facilities south of Teheran, Iran. His position was such that he was the head of many different rocket projects that came under his authority including the Shahab-1 through 6, Kosar, IRIS series and the other tactical missiles such as the (ASM) Air to Surface Missile system for Iranian helicopters. He was the recipient of the “Ayatollah Khomeni” citation among others. (8)

On October 27, 2005 Iran had a satellite launch from the Russia Plesetsk cosmodrome on a Kosmos-3M booster. It launched the Iranian Sihah-1 micro-spacecraft designed to test telecommunications and imagery research.

More recently on February 25, 2007 Iran launched a Shahab-3A on a ballistic vertical probe sounding rocket flight in which the re-entry vehicle was recovered via parachute.

Also see IRIS, Shahab-4 and Shahab-5 & 6 web sites.

References:

1. Pirard, Theo, “ Iran in Space”, Spaceflight, Vol. 42, Aug. 2000, p. 319.

2. Iran approves funds for a domestic satellite, Space News, 1999.

3. Iran’s deadly missile potential, Kenneth Timmerman, The Washington Times, July 16, 1999, pp. A15.

4. Iran to launch three birds in two years, Space Business News, Vol. 17, No. 17 Aug. 18, 1999, pp. 7.

5. Iran plans joint satellite project with China, Tehran, voice of IRIFPN 00:20:30 GMT, January 25, 2000.

6. Tehran, Iran (Reuters) 4:43, May 6, 2000,

7. “ Russia prepared to build Iranian satellite, Space News, p. 2.

8. O’Sullivan, Arieh, “Key Iranian missile man dies mysteriously”, Jerusalem Post, 12, July, 2001, http://www.jpost.com:80/Editions/2001/07/12/News/News.30263.html

9. http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8510120284, Iran Manufactures Satellite Rockets . TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- An Iranian legislative official said that a satellite launching vehicle recently made by ...
english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8510120284 - 15k - Jan 2, 2007