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Syria Revolution

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After three years of struggle, the civil war in Syria increasinlgy resembles the Spanish Civil War of the late 1930s, the bloody struggle that provided a preview of the larger war the came in 1939. In Spain, Fascist forces were backed by Italy and Germany, pitted against leftist forces, some backed by the Soviet Union. The anti-fascist forces were divided into Stalinist, Trotskyite and Anarchist factions, which battled each other as well as the fascists. In Syria, Shia Iran is backing the Alawite [quasi co-religionist] Assad regime, while Sunni monarchies - Saudi Arabia and Qatar - backed some opposition militias. The situation is far more complex, but this framework is a good place to start.

Syrian rebel groups were fighting each other, with more than 1,000 people killed in the first two weeks of January 2014 in clashes among armed opposition groups. The infighting appeared to be benefiting the government in Damascus. It was the worst rebel-on-rebel violence since Syria’s civil war began nearly three years earlier. Opposition fighters targeted the al-Qaida-linked Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/Levant [ISIS/ISIL], which had been terrorizing civilians. The battles among rebels appeared to be boosting the Syrian government. Forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad gained ground in the chaos of rebel-on-rebel fighting.

By mid-2014 the Government's military campaigns had been largely successful, whether in the Qalamoun region in shutting off the Lebanese back door to rebels, in retaking Homs, surrounding neighborhoods in Damascus and Aleppo. By mid-year, Assad was well on his way to retaking Aleppo, Syria's northern capital. But a large chunk of the country remained out his control, and that he was in virtual isolation. More than half of the Syria electorate did not even have the chance to vote in the June election.

A United Nations-backed report detailed the economic and societal devastation of the four-year war in Syria, where the violence of a multiparty civil conflict became further inflamed by a multinational battle against Islamic State militants. The report, released 10 March 2015y, said the war had cost the Syrian economy over $200 billion dollars and brought "drastic levels of inequality and inequity" to people across the country who struggle to find food. The result was a spike in unemployment, which shot from about 15 percent at the start of the war in 2011 to nearly 58 percent by the end of 2014. That left almost 4 million people out of work in a country where the population has also dropped from about 21 million to 17.5 million since the fighting began. The fighting killed 220,000 people, sent 3.8 million refugees into neighboring countries and forced another 6.8 million to flee their homes within Syria.

As the violence in Syria has mutated from civil unrest into civil war, it has grown ever more brutal. The public squares where people gathered in March 2011 – exactly four years ago – now serve as monuments to destruction, the remnants of a once vibrant society. The neighbourhoods where Syrians dared to demonstrate and call for their civil rights have been reduced to rubble. World heritage sites have been turned into battlefields and archaeological sites, looted. With the violence in Syria now entering its fifth year, the country has been plunged into darkness.

Civilians have always been the primary victims of violence in Syria. Women and children, men and boys, the elderly, persons with disabilities, are treated as legitimate targets by Government forces, anti-Government armed groups, extremists and terrorist organizations. Children have been indoctrinated and instrumentalised on a massive scale. The men and women who aid those wounded or in need of humanitarian assistance are systematically arrested, detained, tortured and killed. The symbol of the Red Crescent has ceased to be a shield of protection.

An alarming number of cases of sexual violence are still being committed inside Syria. Both ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra have stoned women to death on charges of “adultery”. Yazidi women and girls, abducted by ISIS in Iraq, are being sold and re-sold inside Syria, where they are held in sexual slavery. This terrorist group has brutally executed men accused of homosexuality by throwing them off tall buildings.

The Course of Combat

Syria may be heading toward a break-up that would see the formation of at least three new mini-states. One such mini-state would be an enclave for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government in the west and northwest that would be populated by members of the Alawi sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam, Shiites and Christians. Another would be a Sunni-majority state in the center and south of the country and the third would be a separate entity in the northeast for Syria’s two million Kurds.

In 2012 Syria’s Orthodox Christian Church claimed that Islamist rebels were carrying out “ethnic cleansing of Christians” in Homs. The Vatican news agency, Fides, said most of the 50,000 Christians living in the city left when Islamists went door to door in the neighborhoods of Hamidiya and Bustan al-Diwan telling Christians they would be shot if they did not leave. Militants Islamists have sometimes used the slogan, “the Alawites to the grave and the Christians to Beirut.”

By mid-2013, as Syria continued its sectarian civil war, some argued that state-based nationalism was declining and something larger and older was taking over. The Syrian war seemed to mark the beginning of the end for the Sykes-Picot Agreement, which divided the Ottoman Empire after World War I and created the modern Middle East. Hisham Jaber, a retired Lebanese army general and now the director of a political think tank in Beirut, believes the likely outcome of the civil war is the breakup of Syria. He foresees Alawites, members of an offshoot sect of Shia Islam, and Christians cleaving together along Syria’s coast, and Kurds and Sunni Muslims establishing separate states of their own.

Ben Caspit wrote February 11, 2014 that "... Israel Defense Forces top brass believe that the struggle in Syria could last as long as a decade. Wording this cautiously, a very high-ranking Israeli defense official told me: “We’re facing a decade of struggle in the Syrian environs.” Either way, Israel believes that the Syria we had come to know over the past few decades is gone. ... a senior IDF official commented... “the concentration of all the global jihad madmen in Damascus and the Golan Heights is also a disconcerting development. So as far as we’re concerned, the alternatives are bad either way. And there’s also the possibility that these alternatives would coexist, which means that the current situation could last for many more years. Assad will keep his grip in Damascus and the Alawite strongholds, while jihadist forces will grow stronger and take control of all the other areas."

French Mandate - 1924 Possible Successor States Possible Successor States Areas of Control - January 2014

At the beginning of 2015 Assad’s forces were menacing the rebels in districts they held in the northern Syrian town of Aleppo and threatening an encirclement that would have severed insurgent supply lines to Turkey. With the encirclement just a handful of miles from being completed, Assad boasted that 2015 would see his victory over the rebels in a civil war that has cost at least 200,000 lives.

But in March, rebel units disrupted an effort by Syrian government forces to surround them and captured a strategic crossroads and a commanding hill controlling a key route into Aleppo. Later in the month insurgents, with al-Qaida’s affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra in the lead, captured Idlib, the second biggest town to fall into rebel hands in the brutal four-year-long civil war.

By April 2015 Iran increasingly focused its military efforts in the Mideast on Iraq and the loser appeared to be Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. His forces had been losing ground to the country’s fractious rebels, who despite being engulfed by infighting, have managed to seize territory in the war-torn country’s north and south.

Assad’s forces appeared over-stretched in Idlib. Noticeably absent in the defense of the city in the country’s northwest were Iranian-coordinated foreign Shiite militiamen and Lebanese Hezbollah fighters, who the Assad regime had relied on for past gains as well as to organize local fighters from Assad’s minority Alawi sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam. Many Shia militiamen from Iraq who had been fighting alongside Assad’s forces started to return in the autumn of 2014 to neighboring Iraq to assist in the pushback against the Sunni militants of the so-called Islamic State.

Arguing that recent battlefield gains by the insurgents are shaping “a new political reality” in Syria, rebel leaders argue that only the backing of Iran and Russia is prolonging the conflict. “The current coordination between the rebel factions can contribute to the acceleration of the liberation process of Syria from the Assad regime,” says Khaled Khoja, the president of the Western-backed Syrian National Coalition (SNC). With jihadists from the so-called Islamic State and al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra excluded, and rebels scoring recent major military gains, the opposition has little reason for negotiating. And with President al-Assad’s leverage reduced because of government setbacks, the regime has little interest in engaging in serious talks.

By mid-May 2015, battlefield gains by insurgents in northern Syria, in an alliance dominated by al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, and hardline Islamist militias presented the Obama administration with a dilemma — whether to support the new insurgent momentum against President Bashar al-Assad or to have nothing to do with it. While the victories in April and May over forces loyal to Assad in Idlib province west of Aleppo may mark a turning point in the fortunes of the rebels in the long-running, bloody civil war that had left more than 200,000 dead, US officials were alarmed at the composition of the alliance known as Jaish al-Fata, or the Army of Conquest, announced on 28 March 2015.

A coalition of Sunni states responded to counter Iran, with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey putting aside differences to back Jaish al-Fatah, the Army of Conquest. With the help of a more centralized approach and an influx of weapons, Jaish al-Fatah made inroads against the regime, notably in Syria’s Idlib province. The anti-Assad forces hadn’t yet turned the tide of the war itself, but they had been able to make notable gains on some of the margins where pro-Assad forces were in some ways limited by the lack of deployment by some of these irregular supporting elements.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the militants' victory in Palmyra in mid-May 2015 meant they held sway over more than half of Syria. Much of the Syrian territory held by the IS group is uninhabited dessert in the center of the country, with Syria’s main cities – including the capital, Damascus – located on its western flank along the border with Lebanon and on the coast. However, the militant group controllrf most of Syria's oil and gas fields, and is using the income to fund its expansion. It now also had a springboard from which to make further territorial gains.

The Syrian regime retained control of about a quarter of the territory of the country and about half the population, with half the territory held by the extremist Islamic State, and the rest by myriad opposition rebels and Kurdish groups.

By mid-2015 the Syrian government of Bashar Al-Assad controlled, at best, 20 percent of the country. Assad really only needed the coastline and the capital, Damascus. To the east is desert.

On September 27, 2015 France said it had launched its first airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Syria, on targets it identified after two weeks of surveillance flights. French President Francois Hollande told reporters at the United Nations that six jet fighters hit an Islamic State training camp near the eastern Syrian city of Deir Ezzor. France had only taken part in airstrikes against the jihadists in neighboring Iraq. Paris had carried out 215 of the nearly 4,500 strikes there.

The fighting to the north of the Syrian city of Aleppo in late September 2015 illustrated how complex and tangled the Syrian civil war had become, featuring a dizzying array of rebel factions. Some are approved of by the West while others are favored by Turkey and the Gulf countries, and two rival jihadist organizations – not to mention the Kurds and Syrian government forces. While coalition airstrikes targetted Islamic State extremists, regime warplanes had pounded villages controlled by rebel factions and, according to insurgent commanders, chiefly those that are important for rebel supply lines into Aleppo.

International talks on Syria were held in Vienna 29-30 October 2015. US Secretary of State John Kerry called the talks the "most promising" opportunity in years to end the country's "nonstop horror" one in 20 Syrians has been wounded or killed, one in five is a refugee. The talks included Iran, but notably did not include members of either the Syrian government or the main groups trying to overthrow it. Iran and the United States remain far apart on the Syrian issue. Russia’s overall goal in Syria is to “stabilize” Assad by fighting the opposition elements that pose the greatest threat to his regime.

World powers involved in talks on Syria's political future agreed 30 October 2015 to a UN-led process that involved talks between the Syrian government and opposition and also to explore a cease-fire that would still allow strikes against terrorist groups. Notably absent from the talks on Syria's political future were representatives from the Syrian government and the country's moderate opposition groups.

The new plan to set up a ceasefire in Syria within the next four to six months was discussed in Vienna. The ceasefire could be followed by the formation of a transition government featuring President Bashar Assad and opposition members, according to the officials. A follow-up meeting is expected as early as next week, with top diplomats possibly returning to Austria’s capital.

Iraqi Kurdish President Massoud Barzani declared 13 November 2015 that Kurdish fighters have seized Sinjar from the Islamic State militants who had controlled it for more than a year. "I am here to announce the liberation of Sinjar," Barzani told a news conference as Kurdish forces raised their flag in the town center. The jihadists had killed and enslaved thousands of the minority Yazidi community at Sinjar as the insurgents swept across Iraq in August 2014. The Kurdish forces encountered little resistance in the face of their advance.

Kurdish fighters seized a key road on a major supply route between Islamic State-held Mosul to the east and the group's self-proclaimed capital to the west in Raqqa, Syria. The route (known as Highway 47) is used by the Islamic State group to transport weapons, fighters, illicit oil and other commodities that fund the militant group's operations, according to the U.S. Central Command. To cut the caliphate in half, you need to control the desert south of Sinjar between Sinjar and Baaj.

Some 7,500 fighters are taking part in the effort to control Sinjar. In addition to retaking Sinjar, they want to establish a buffer zone in the area to protect civilians. U.S. and Kurdish officials estimate there were 500 to 600 Islamic State fighters in and around Sinjar.

President Barack Obama said he believed the Islamic State advance in Iraq and Syria had been contained, but not destroyed. "I don't think they're gaining strength," Obama said. "From the start, our goal has been first to contain, and we have contained them. They have not gained ground in Iraq.

Representatives for world powers including the US, Russia, Iran and the United Nations wrapped up their second round of talks in Vienna on 14 November 2015 with a broad plan for a political transition in Syria. US Secretary of State John Kerry said under the plan, a cease-fire would be enacted as soon as Syrian government and opposition representatives took initial steps toward the UN-supervised transition. However, that cease-fire would not include the Islamic State or al-Qaida-linked Jabhat al-Nusra groups.

The parties agreed:

  • to support Syria's unity, independence, territorial integrity, and pluralist character.
  • that Daesh and other terrorist groups have to be defeated.
  • that Syria's state institutions should remain intact so we don't have the implosion that we saw in Iraq.
  • that the rights of all Syrians, regardless of ethnicity or religious denomination, have to be protected in whatever government comes out.
  • that access for humanitarian relief has to be assured throughout the country, and that will be one of the topics we talk about on Saturday.

They agreed that the UN should convene members of the Syrian Government and the Syrian opposition to develop a plan along the lines of the 2012 Geneva communique, leading to a credible, inclusive, non-sectarian governance followed by a new constitution and by free and fair, transparent, accountable elections run under the supervision of the United Nations to the highest standards of elections anywhere in the world. And they agreed to explore the possibility of a nationwide ceasefire to be initiated in parallel with this renewed political process. Such a ceasefire does not include Daesh.

"Kerry's approach is almost surely wrongheaded ... The most glaring mistake to emerge from Vienna is the provision that would have all outside powers stop arming and supplying belligerents once peace talks begin. This is a prescription for locking in the military superiority of Assad and the Islamic State terrorist organization while other groups, including Kurdish fighters and moderate Arabs, remain weak. Even if we could verify that Russia and Iran were no longer aiding Assad, as well as Hezbollah fighters sent from Lebanon, such a freeze would codify the unfair advantage that extreme forces have developed.... During drawn out negotiations, moderate factions would likely suffer battlefield setbacks as we deprived them of help." The rise of Daesh was directly attributable to the policies and actions of the Assad regime, and that is why we have referred to Assad as a magnet for terrorism. This was a case, and there are many in history, in which two supposed enemies are in fact symbiotic. Loathing towards Assad drove thousands of Syrians into the arms of Daesh. And fear of Daesh caused some Syrian groups to feel that they had no realistic option but to support the government. That's a symbiotic relationship, each piece dependent on the other.

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