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USAID/Nigeria/Democracy and Governance
Civil Society Annual Program Statement, 2002-2003


Amendment 2


USAID/NIGERIA DEMOCRACY AND GOVERNANCE
ANNUAL PROGRAM STATEMENT

AMENDMENDMENT NUMBER 2

The purpose of this amendment is to:

A).  Provide a list of attending organizations, addresses and points of contact. 

B).  Highlight the events, as well as questions and responses posed at the pre proposal conference held December 12, 2001 in Washington, D.C.

-  Incorporate changes to Figure 2 "Strategic Objective:  TRANSITION TO DEMOCRATIC CIVILIAN GOVERNANCE SUSTAINED " of the Annual Program Statement (APS).
 

A).  LIST OF ATTENDING ORGANIZATIONS

1. Johns Hopkins University
Center for Communication Programs
11 Market Place
Baltimore, MD  21202
(410) 659-6300

2. CEDPA
1400 16th Street, N.W.
Suite 100
Washington, D.C.  20036
(202) 667-1142

3. IFES
1101 15th Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C.  20005
(202) 872-8507

4. International Human Rights Law Group
1200 18th Street, N.W.  
Suite 602
Washington, D.C.  20036
(202) 822-4600 X 37

5. CLUSA/UCBA
1401 New York Avenue, N.W.
Suite 1100
Washington, D.C.  20005
(202) 383-5448

6. Value-Added, LLC
8115 Fenton Street
Suite 214
Silver Spring, MD  20910
(301) 495-9490  

7. ARD, Incorporated
1601 N. Kent Street
Suite 800
Arlington, VA  22209
(703) 807-8700

8. Casals & Associates
1199 North Fairfax Street
3rd Floor
Alexandria, VA  22314
(571) 276-2292

9. NDI
2030 M Street
5th Floor
Washington, D.C.  20036
(202) 728-5543

B.  Discussions, questions and responses:

The pre proposal conference was held with representatives from USAID officials and representatives from interested organizations listed above.  The information provided below is intended to be descriptive and provide insight to the events of the pre proposal conference.  It is not intended to be a verbatim transcript of the discussion, questions or responses; nor is it intended to represent the exact sequence of events.  
  
I. Administration:  
 
a. The following points were made concerning the proposal packages:
 
- Adhere to the limitations of the proposal. 
- Follow the format. 
- Provide separate cost and technical proposals:
- Technical proposal should not contain cost elements other than to specify the level of effort associated with the specific task or area addressed in the proposal relating to in-kind contributions.
- Cost proposal should include a narrative, cost summary, easily follow and cross reference with the technical proposal.
- A list of the weights for the evaluation criteria were mentioned (as specified in the APS)
- Noted that with the exception of Key Personnel, the elements are normally intertwined.
- Noted that the due date was extended in Amendment 1 of the APS to January 28, 2002.
- Ensure that all necessary documents such as NICRA information, completed SF 424s and so on, are included in the proposal.
- Section X.D.5--Clarification and amendment of mailing addresses:
 
      Send original technical proposal (no copies necessary) and original cost proposal (plus 2         
      copies) to the Regional Contracting Officer at the following address:
 

                   Courier address for USAID/Ghana:
                                                  USAID/Ghana
                         Attn:  Ms. R. Ballen, Regional Contracting Officer
                                                  E45/3 Independence Avenue
                                                  P.O. Box 1630
                                                 Accra, Ghana

                     Diplomatic pouch address for USAID/Ghana (takes minimum of two weeks for delivery):
                                                 USAID/Ghana
                      Attn:  Ms. R. Ballen, Regional Contracting Officer
                                                 2020 Accra Place
                                                Washington, DC 20521-2020

                     Two copies of the technical proposal are to be mailed to the Technical Evaluation Committee 
                    at the following address: 

                    Courier address for USAID/Nigeria:
                                                USAID/Nigeria
                                                Attn:  Ms. Minnie Wright, DG Team Leader
                                                Metro Plaza, 3rd Floor
                                                Plot 992 Zachariyah Maimalari St.
                                                Central Business District
                                                Garki,  Abuja, Nigeria

                    Diplomatic Pouch address for Nigeria (takes minimum two weeks for delivery):

                                                USAID/Nigeria
                                                Attn: Ms. Minnie Wright, DG Team Leader
                                                8320 Abuja Place
                                                Washington, DC 20521-8320
 
     II.         Technical Discussion:
---------------
            a.  A short summary of the history of the USAID program in Nigeria and the development of the democracy and governance program since the 1999 political transition was provided.  USAID/Nigeria's effort to consult with and be responsive to Nigerian civil society organizations was highlighted.  (No modification of the material presented in Sections I, III and IV).

            b.  Modification to the Democracy and Governance results framework (Figure 2, Section III):

As a result of the end of the USAID Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI) program, the following changes have been made to the democracy and governance results framework:

I.R. 1.3, "Potentially Destabilizing Forces Mitigated" is deleted, along with its sub-results
I.R. 1.4 - number is changed to I.R. 1.3
The new I.R. 1.3 is altered to read as follows:  "Increased Participation by Civil Society in Public Deliberations, Oversight of Government, and Conflict Management"  (sub-results remain the same)

New indicators from Mission's Performance Monitoring Plan  (Section VI):
The following indicators have been included in USAID/Nigeria's Mission-wide performance monitoring plan submitted to USAID/Washington in December 2001. USAID plans to report on these indicators over the period covered by the APS.  Therefore, programs implemented under the APS should be planned to respond to and report on these indicators.  Note that adjustments may be made in consultation with USAID/Nigeria, but major adjustments are not expected at this time.

I.R. 1.3 :  "Increased Participation by Civil Society in Public Deliberations, Oversight of Government, and Conflict Management"

Percent of CSOs assisted by USAID that report that the overall outcome of their organizations' advocacy efforts at the national, state or local level has been positive.  

Percent of USAID-supported conflict management networks and forums that result in proactive management of peace processes.

Sub-IR 1.3.1: "Technical and Organizational Capacity of CSOs to Address Priority Transition Issues Expanded"

Number of CSOs that report meeting at least 80% of selected technical/organizational capacity improvements.  (to be further defined with project implementer).

Number of conflict management networks and forums established.

Sub-IR 1.3.2:  "Women play an increased role in civil society participation and oversight of government."

No specific indicators, but it is expected that the indicators above will be disaggregated by gender (i.e., by groups predominantly made up of women and/or dealing with predominantly women's issues).

Modification of Section III, A.

Second sentence of first paragraph should be modified to read:  "As a result, USAID/Nigeria's program was transformed from a relatively small health and women's democratic decision-making program, to a fast-paced elections program that assisted both elections administration and domestic poll monitoring efforts, and then to a full-fledged development assistance program."

III.          Questions and Responses

          a.     Questions received in advance of meeting:

                    1.  It is currently unknown if the local government elections will be held next year.  How will this affect the APS?  Can proposals be revised once the status of elections is officially announced?

                     Response:  The calendar for local government elections will likely remain disputed for some time.  Clearly, this may affect the order in which certain activities might be implemented, or the timing of activities.  It is suggested that proposals describe the general approaches to be used for the elections (and any other related) element of the program, and briefly describe how emphasis or timing might be changed to respond to different possible scenarios for the elections.  An indication of any expected significant effect on budget should also be given.

                                      Since the calendar will likely not be known even by the submission deadline, USAID will evaluate all proposals based on how they respond to the elections calendar as it stands at the date of this amendment.  It is assumed that the quality of proposed technical approaches will not change substantially if the electoral calendar were to be revised further.  

                                      After the selection is completed, the successful applicant will have the opportunity to change proposed work plans and other related material in response to changes in the electoral calendar.  This is in keeping with the statement in the APS that program approaches will have to remain flexible throughout the program period, to respond to changing circumstances, what other donors are doing, etc.

                    2.  Please clarify the information provided about the allocation of effort and funds for conflict management/peace-building activities.  Section IX of the APS indicates that conflict management/peace-building should be 30% of the program effort, which is approximately $1.65 million.  This section also notes that $1.4 million in the first year is earmarked for conflict-related activities.  Is it correct to assume that during year two, only $250,000 will be spent on these activities?

                    Response:  The percentages given in the APS are meant to be indicators of relative order of precedence for the various activities.  It is not expected that they will be adhered to exactly noting that priorities are subject to shift over the course of the program.

                                       Regarding the $1.4 million earmarked for conflict.  This amount is planned to be released in the first year, but may be spent over the two years of the program (it is anticipated that 50% will be spent in the first year).  Therefore, more than $250,000 may be spent in the second year of the program on conflict activities, if the second-year spending includes part of the $1.4 million.  It is important to note is that the $1.4 million are for sole purpose of conflict-related activities, regardless of the timing.   This is a separate source of funding that shall not be exchanged with other funds, even on a short-term basis.

                                       It is expected that the first allocation of funds into this cooperative agreement will total approximately $3.9 million:  $1.4 million in conflict funds, and $2.5 million in funds that can be used for other purposes.  Proposals should not plan expenditures beyond this level from the time of award until September 2002, when it is expected that FY 2002 funds will be available.

                                       Please note that this is a general plan and all information is subject to change.
 

        3.  Please confirm that the 25% cost-sharing which is encouraged in Section IX Information on Award, Funding and Cost-Sharing Requirements" is a suggestion and not a requirement.  To what extend will the amount of the cost-sharing offered count in the allocation of points for the cost proposal?
 
       Response:  The 25% cost-sharing is an established USAID policy and not a regulatory requirement.  This policy, in part, historically indicates the level of dedication of the NGO and sustainability of the program.  How this portion is integrated into the technical proposal, whether in-kind, monetary or a combination of contributions, is carefully reviewed by the evaluation committee for realism.  Accepting less than the 25% is rare but possible.  Most of the Agreements have in excess of the 25% contribution.

     b.     Questions from the pre-bid conference:

                  1.  It is assumed that USAID wants proposals responding to the whole APS package and not on 1 piece.
                  Response:   That is correct.

                  2.  Is it up to bidder to designate key personnel?

                  Response:  Yes, entities identify their key personnel positions.  However if during the review process, there are positions that USAID believes to be key that are not identified, this would be a point of negotiation and an area of concern.  

3. MSIs were mentioned in the APS.  Will you expand on this subject?

                 Response:  The U.S. Government in general, USAID and USAID'S Mission to Nigeria are interested in increasing the role of MSIs to one that is more substantive in U.S. Government programs and projects.  The specific definition of an MSI was provided in Amendment 1 of the APS. 

4. Does the definition of "Minority Institutions" refer to US-based institutions?

                 Response:  The classification is based on U.S. laws, regulations and standards. There is no indication that the governments of other countries implement the U.S. statutory and regulatory guidelines for institutional classification. As with the U.S. Small Business Administration's guidelines being applicable to U.S. firms, similar adherence would apply to U.S. based NGOs.   

                 5.  Section V.B.1 refers to the fact that other donors are likely to be active in the area of elections support and highlights the need for flexibility in USAID's program in order to complement other donors.  What has USAID/Nigeria been hearing from other donors about their plans and how might this affect USAID's program?

                  Response:  USAID is not in a position to speak for other donors.  What is known at this time is that all donors are shaping their election assistance strategies.  USAID will continue to coordinate with Nigeria's principal donors during its planning process. The Annual Program Statement identifies a number of potential means for supporting civil society work regarding the elections.  The proposals will be evaluated as described in the selection criteria for their technical strengths and appropriateness in context with the Nigerian donor situation.  Some donor initiatives are being developed, such as a UN Elections Assistance Division program to work with domestic civil society poll monitoring groups.  USAID has not made a commitment concerning this project.  It is important to note in this regard that the APS describes a civil society assistance strategy that focuses on elections.  Therefore, any aspect of support for civil society's participation in the electoral process should be seen as part of an overall civil society assistance strategy.

                  6.  The section on the background of USAID/Nigeria's civil society work doesn't include 1998-99 with regards to election monitoring.  NDI worked with USAID on a 1 million dollar project during this time.  NDI proposes including this information in amendment.  If this APS deals with election monitoring, it should include as relevant background.

                  Response:  The corporate history is not longer in the mission concerning this project.  No one currently in mission was there during the 1998 to 1999 timeframe.  This explains the possible oversight.  Will take under consideration & consult.
 
 

                   7.  Could the list of attendees & other people that asked questions be attached to amendment to be issued with addresses and telephone numbers?  Interested organizations?

                   Response:  A list names of organizations in attendance will be attended.  The additional information requested for release is possible and will be considered.

Notation to all in attendance:  All questions & comments will be issued in an amendment.  We anticipate latter part of this week, early next week to be available on USAID's web site.  Should there be a discrepancy between the oral communication during the pre proposal conference and the amendment issued, the amendment shall prevail.  

The Regional Contracting Officer will be out of the office through 11 January 2002.  The point of contact during her absence is Mr. Thomas Yeboah.  He may be reached at: tyeboah@usaid.gov.
 


AMENDMENT NUMBER 1


The purpose of the amendment is to:

1) Section X Application Format, D.5. the third line is modified to reflect a change in the application due date as follows:

Applications are due on January 28, 2002. 

2) Add to Section VIII. Evaluation Criteria, A.2.  Technical Approach

      Does the proposal provide for a substantive technical role for Minority Serving Institutions?

Definition of a Minority Serving Institution (MSI) - - those institutions of higher education in the U.S. which either historically or currently have ethnic minority student enrollments of more than twenty-five percent (25%).  U.S. Federal agencies by Executive Orders have been mandated to increase opportunities for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), Hispanic Serving Institutions (HSIs) and Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs) to participate in the and benefit from program and activities in Federal Government Agencies.

For additional information on this subject, please refer to the USAID web site or the Minority On-Line Information System (MOLIS) web site (http://www.sciencewise.com/molis) 


I. Introduction/Overview

The purpose of this Annual Program Statement (APS) is to solicit proposals for a cooperative agreement with USAID/Nigeria to implement a newly-redefined civil society assistance program under the Mission's Democracy and Governance (DG) Strategic Objective.  This APS describes USAID's current civil society assistance strategy, changes to that strategy, expected results, illustrative activities, and the process and criteria for evaluating applications.  Subject to the availability of funds, it is anticipated that $5.5 million will be available for this program over a 24-month period.  Under the DG Strategic Objective "Transition to Democratic Civilian Governance Sustained", the cooperative agreement will implement activities to achieve the Intermediate Result "Increased knowledgeable participation by civil society in public deliberations and oversight of government."

A. Objectives of New Program

USAID/Nigeria seeks to achieve two main goals with this Annual Program Statement.  First, there is a need for more focus and coordination in USAID's civil society assistance program.  USAID's current civil society program consists of a combination of programs carried over from the previous strategy that emphasized women's participation in basic community-level governance, and new programs occasioned by the 1999 political transition which give more attention to civil society involvement in higher-level advocacy and oversight processes.  The civil society program is currently implemented by four independent organizations, each with differing institutional priorities and programming strengths.  USAID requires an overall coordination mechanism to promote integrated programs and strategies for achieving results, as well as increased focus on strategic priorities.

Second, USAID/Nigeria seeks greater emphasis on building the capacity of local organizations under the new program.  As the new political environment takes shape, Nigerian civil society needs to improve its ability to participate more effectively in both Nigeria's governance and international donors' programs.  It is expected that the new program will put more emphasis on these concerns through grant making, institutional development, and more extensive partnerships with Nigerian organizations.

B. Current Priority Issues

Through a series of consultations with civil society organizations (CSOs), USAID has identified four key transition issues, which will constitute the initial focus of the new program:

  • Electoral processes
  • Constitutional reform
  • Transparency and accountability to reduce corruption and increase government responsiveness, and
  • Conflict management and peace building
Results in these priority areas will be achieved through a strategy that focuses on the following cross-cutting themes:
  • Improved organizational and management capacity of civil society organizations
  • Improved technical capacity of civil society organizations and
  • Increased participation of women.
As circumstances warrant, USAID will work with the implementer(s) of this program to define new substantive focus areas.

C. Definition of Civil Society

For the purposes of this document, "civil society" is defined as any non-state, non-government group, network, or organization whose primary purpose is to contribute to the promotion of principles and practices of good governance and to improve the lives of the people they represent.  These are multi-faceted and multi-layered groups organized around community, functional and sector concerns; they do not include political parties for the purposes of this document.  Civil society groups critical to sustaining Nigeria's transition to civilian, democratic governance have been identified as human rights groups, conflict management groups, civic and political education groups, anti-corruption groups, constitutional reform groups, organized labor groups, women's organizations, youth groups, student organizations, business and professional associations, and religious groups, among others.  Key roles for civil society in sustaining the transition have been identified as educating the public on civil rights and responsibilities; advocating on transition and reform issues; mobilizing citizens for political, socio-economic and legal reforms; supporting women's participation in leadership and governance; and managing conflict.  Examples of activities civil society organizations may conduct include advocacy campaigns, training, conflict mediation, civic education, election observation, participation in public hearings, development of community-industry-government partnerships for development, or town hall meetings, among others.

D. Definition of Capacity Building

Capacity building will include developing CSOs' organizational capacity, as well as their technical skills.  Organizational capacity includes areas such as enhancing internal management of CSOs for improved accountability, transparency and sustainability, and technical skills such as project/proposal development, program management and performance evaluation.  Technical capacity refers to skills covering the substantive work of CSOs, including areas such as research, policy development, monitoring governance, advocacy and lobbying, establishing and sustaining networks/coalitions, conflict management/peace building skills, and leadership capacity.

E. Increased Women's Participation
Increasing the participation of women demands capacity building activities such as improving the social and political mobilization ability of women's organizations, strengthening communication skills, and confidence-building activities.

F. Expectations

USAID/Nigeria's transition strategy has been extended through December 2003.  The results achieved during this transition period will provide a basis for a longer-term (2004-2009) sustainable development program.  Given the relatively short transition period, it is critical that the proposed program be results-oriented, build on previous USAID programming where possible, and focus on a limited number of issues key to sustaining the current political transition.  It is also important that the program builds linkages with USAID activities in legislative strengthening, political party development, election administration, rule of law, and activities funded under USAID/Nigeria's other strategic objectives.  Finally, since there is great interest in supporting CSOs among many donors in Nigeria, the proposed program must be well coordinated with other international development organizations' activities.

II. Assumptions and Parameters

Assumptions and parameters that USAID/Nigeria has made for the cooperative agreement to be funded under this APS are as follows:
  • The time period for this agreement will be approximately 24 months, starting not later than 45 days after notification of award.
  • The proposed program will be results-oriented, well coordinated, build on USAID/Nigeria's relevant prior experience with civil society, and establish appropriate and on-going linkages with other USAID/Nigeria democracy and governance activities and implementers.
  • The program will effectively address issues of regional, ethnic and religious diversity in Nigeria and will provide a balanced approach to providing assistance  across the country's six geo-political zones.
  • Because the program will be coordinated with a variety of USAID/Nigeria and other donor initiatives, USAID/Nigeria intends to have substantial involvement in the technical and management direction of the grantee's program and activities.  Substantial involvement includes:
  • Advance approval of specified key personnel;
  • Approval of  recipient's implementation/work plan;
  • Collaboration or joint participation of USAID with the recipient in accomplishing specific elements in the program description.  Such items shall include, but not be limited to: 

  • (1) Performance monitoring plan; and,
    (2) Providing technical direction to facilitate coordination with other USAID/Nigeria program as well as those of other donors;
  • Agency authority to immediately halt construction activity.
  • USAID/Nigeria recognizes the enormous organizational capacity in Nigeria.  It is highly desirable that the grantee develops implementation partnerships with Nigerian organizations that enable Nigerian partners to take increasing responsibility for program implementation.  USAID/Nigeria further recognizes the large variation in capacity among Nigerian organizations and understands that this variation directly impacts the potential level of partnership in which organizations could engage.  Finally, USAID/Nigeria recognizes that organizations with greatest capacity may or may not be the optimal organizations for developing partnerships.  It is expected that the grantee will provide a strong rationale for proposed levels of partnership and will work to build the partnering capacity of its Nigerian partners as appropriate, including, but not limited to, strengthening:
    • Program management capacity;
    • Planning capacity;
    • Financial management systems;
    • Procurement, personnel, and travel systems;
    • Reporting;
    • Managing for results.
  • USAID/Nigeria recognizes the enormous human resource capacity in Nigeria.  It is expected that the grantee will utilize Nigerian professionals with demonstrated expertise in the activity areas described in this solicitation where possible.
  • USAID/Nigeria recognizes the complex and diverse nature of the tasks involved in this cooperative agreement and would welcome a consortium approach to program implementation.  A consortium could include multiple US-based or international organizations and should also include substantive and organizationally appropriate roles for Nigerian organizations. If a consortium is proposed, USAID/Nigeria would expect one organization to be responsible for overall program management and coordination.  This includes final responsibility for maintaining strategic focus, integrated performance monitoring and reporting, financial management and results achievement.

III. Background

A. USAID/Nigeria Program Strategy
In 1999, Nigeria moved from a military dictatorship that devastated the economic, social, and political capital of the country to a civilian-led government ushered into power through elections that were seriously flawed, but nonetheless were considered to represent the will of the Nigerian people.  As a result, USAID/Nigeria's program was transformed from a relatively small health and women's democratic decision-making program, to a fast-paced elections program, and then to a full-fledged development assistance program, the goal of which is to "Assist Nigeria's transition to economic, social and political stability."  To achieve this goal, the Mission supports four strategic objectives and one special objective.  (Figure 1)
Figure 1. USAID/Nigeria - Strategic Framework (see link below for full-text description)
Full-text description




B. USAID/Nigeria Democracy and Governance Objective

Operating under the strategic objective, "Transition to democratic, civilian government sustained," USAID/Nigeria's DG program is structured around four intermediate results: improving the responsiveness and accountability of government institutions; establishing the foundation for a free and fair electoral system; mitigating potentially destabilizing forces; and increasing knowledgeable participation of civil society in public deliberations and oversight of government.  USAID/Nigeria's programs under these results are designed such that the work of its implementing partners is coordinated around priority transition issues.  This approach enhances USAID's support to Nigeria's transition by linking achievements in increased civil society demand for good governance with those of greater responsiveness of target government institutions.  In this way, the civil society program contributes to accomplishing the other intermediate results, building the capacity of Nigeria's political system to develop policies on key transition issues that enjoy popular legitimacy. (Figure 2)

A very important component of USAID's transitional strategy has been that of assuaging pressures on the nascent democratic structures (through conflict management and peace building), until they are fully able to not only withstand, but also effectively manage threats to the transition.  The Office of Transition Initiatives (USAID/OTI) has so far managed this component of USAID's work.  OTI has now closed operations in Nigeria, and USAID's civil society program will continue implementing its conflict management activities.  The Intermediate Result (IR) 1.3 and its Sub- Results in the results framework in figure 2 may be reviewed, as these areas were the specific responsibility of OTI.

Figure 2. Strategic Objective 1: Transition to Democratic Civilian Governance Sustained (See link below for full-text description)
Full-text description

Figure 2
 

IV.  USAID/Nigeria's Current Civil Society Program

A. Overview

The means by which USAID/Nigeria's program has achieved the result of "Increased knowledgeable participation of civil society in public deliberations and oversight of government" has evolved substantially in response to the changing conditions presented by Nigeria's democratic transition.  Over the last two years, USAID/Nigeria has sought to empower civil society to effectively demand good governance and responsive stewardship from public officials, as well as to enhance popular participation in political processes, policy deliberations and advocacy for reform. Through its four implementing partners, USAID has provided technical and financial assistance to over 60 CSOs widely spread across the country. The program began as a "scattering of seeds" in the period before the political transition and has increasingly attempted to target key transition issues and promote linkages with other democracy and governance activities.

B. Program Highlights

  • USAID/Nigeria has a strong record of supporting increased participation of women. USAID has supported improving the social and political mobilization ability of women's organizations and worked with women's groups to foster improved government-civil society relations, strengthen conflict management and peace building skills, and build advocacy networks for gender reforms.
  • Through media-based activities, USAID has supported civic education about people's rights and responsibilities in a democracy and activities that provided people with opportunities to hold government accountable, mobilize support for policy reform, and monitor policy implementation on key transition issues such as constitutional reform, anti-corruption initiatives, economic policy reform, and judicial independence.  The program has also provided limited professional training for journalists.
  • The program has worked to facilitate coalition building among CSOs to engage in legislative advocacy at both the national and state levels.
  • USAID, through OTI,  has intervened successfully in conflict-prone communities and supported the creation of peace committees.  The strategy has been two-pronged, building the capacity of conflict management  professionals across the country, while employing a community intervention model to mediate targeted community conflicts.
  • Through a separate program, USAID will continue strengthening the capacity of labor organizations to represent their members' interests.  Special focus is given to women's participation and union participation in economic reform policy discussions.
C. Accomplishments

1. Increased respect for women's human rights, increased political participation of women:

  • Women's groups supported by USAID in three states, (Cross River, Edo and Enugu) successfully introduced bills in their respective State Assemblies outlawing various forms of harmful traditional practices against women.  While both the Edo and Cross River bills outlawed female genital mutilation, Cross River women further demanded that a minimum age be established for marriage and impregnation of girl children.  The Enugu State bill sought better protection of widows against harmful traditional practices. All bills have been passed into law.
  • USAID is also  supporting a Violence Against Women legislative advocacy coalition which comprises CSOs that have been involved in proposing bills to both State Assemblies and the National Assembly on issues ranging from domestic violence to harmful traditional practices and women's inheritance rights.  The coalition is initiating a comprehensive Violence Against Women bill that is expected to address the broad scope of violence against women, taking into account the country's diverse cultural, economic and political nature.
  • Model Local Governments, the '100 Women Groups', and town hall meetings currently being facilitated by USAID partners are all designed to build individual and organizational capacity at the community level to hold elected officials accountable and thereby promote transparency in governance. The 100 Women Group model provides a basis for advancing rural women's human rights by organizing women groups into coalitions that stimulate participatory dialogue within their communities both to identify women's development issues and to mobilize popular support for addressing them
2. Coalition building for legislative advocacy:

Through USAID's support, effective legislative advocacy coalitions are being formed and sustained.

  • Zero-Corruption Coalition - The Zero-Corruption Coalition lobbies decision-makers to implement proposals to fight corruption and monitors activities of public officials and organizations.  The coalition has drafted a "Whistle Blowers' Bill" to protect government officials who reveal government misconduct from being punished.  This bill, if passed, would strengthen the efficacy of existing anti-corruption instruments in the country.  The bill is about to be presented to the National Assembly.
  • Freedom of Information Coalition- The Coalition on Freedom of Information supports a Freedom of Information Bill, which has currently reached its third reading in the House of Representatives.  The bill, if passed, would make public records and information within any level of government more freely available to the public.
  • Electoral Reform Network - This collaborative effort between USAID's civil society partners and its election administration partner to facilitate civil society's participation in the development of the 2001 draft electoral law represents a notable program success.  USAID's civil society implementing partners mobilized and supported CSOs to review the draft electoral law submitted by the Independent National Electoral Commission to the National Assembly in mid-2001.  The Electoral Reform Coalition was then established to continue civil society's advocacy around implementation of key reforms and overall monitoring of the elections process.
  • Violence Against Women Coalition - (see above)
  • Conflict Resolution Stakeholders Network - To build the capacity of conflict management professionals, USAID/OTI facilitated the establishment of the Conflict Resolution Stakeholders Network (CRESNET).  CRESNET is a young professional organization which currently focuses on providing professional development and certification of conflict resolution facilitators.  It has a growing track record of effective community-level interventions to defuse or limit the scope of violence when it erupts.
D. Consultations with Stakeholders

The achievements above notwithstanding, the scope of USAID/Nigeria's civil society program has been broad, and the diversity of implementing partners and program focus areas has made effective integration difficult and has dissipated results.  In expectation of procuring a new civil society program implementation mechanism, the USAID/Nigeria Democracy and Governance Team undertook a process of consultations with Nigerian civil society organizations, other donors and current implementors to identify program needs and priority focus areas.  Also, an assessment was conducted of OTI's conflict programs in Nigeria to help USAID make a determination as to what aspects of its work need to be continued.  The report of that assessment was also reviewed as part of the civil society review consultations. (see annex)   The issues addressed by the different forums included a review of civil society's priorities in helping sustain the new democracy and an analysis of successes, strengths, weaknesses and constraints in work to date.  Finally, potential means by which donors could support civil society in achieving priority goals were examined.

During these consultations, a remarkable consensus emerged around key issues for sustaining the democratic transition.  This action agenda included electoral reform, constitutional and legal reform, civic education and popular participation, poverty alleviation and youth employment, conflict mitigation, transparency and accountability, and gender reform. The transition issues for civil society support under this cooperative agreement were derived from this action agenda.  Final selection was based on consideration of the Democracy and Governance team's objectives, the program's comparative advantages, and the activities of other donors.  In addition, it was agreed that the technical and organizational capacity of Nigerian civil society organizations needed to be strengthened in order for these organizations to effectively advance their agendas.  CSOs also recognized that they have a generally poor record of effective coalition building that limits their impact.

At the same time, it was made clear that donor efforts do not always promote these goals.  Problems identified included small grant amounts leading to limited, stop-and-start programming; lack of support for CSOs' institutional development; and poor partnerships between international and local organizations, resulting in local CSOs viewing many international groups as competitors rather than sources of assistance.

E. APS Direction

Implementation of this APS will assist USAID/Nigeria to focus its efforts to achieve the Intermediate Result "Increased knowledgeable participation of civil society in public deliberations and oversight of government".  The following four areas are deemed critical to sustaining Nigeria's democratic transition and shall constitute the initial focus of the program:

  • Electoral processes,
  • Constitutional reform,
  • Transparency and accountability to reduce corruption and increase government responsiveness, and
  • Conflict management and peace building.
As circumstances warrant, USAID will work with the implementers(s) of this program to define new focus areas.

In order to effectively promote sustainable civil society action on the issues above, the program strategy will heavily emphasize the following cross-cutting elements:

  • Improving organizational and management capacity of civil society organizations;
  • Improving technical capacity of civil society organizations; and
  • Increasing participation of women.

V.  Expected Results for this Cooperative Agreement

The cooperative agreement will provide grants and technical assistance for programs in the identified areas using the strategies highlighted to achieve the Intermediate Result "Increased knowledgeable participation of civil society in public deliberations and oversight of government."

USAID/Nigeria expects the grantee to build on relevant USAID civil society activities in each area.  For each of the following outcomes, guidelines on expected results and illustrative activities are given below to provide technical context to the applicant.  However, these are not to be considered exhaustive.  USAID/Nigeria expects the applicant to provide a discussion of the technical approach and its own illustrative activities for achieving these results.  USAID/Nigeria urges applicants to be forward thinking and innovative.

USAID/Nigeria expects significant portions of the program to be implemented through grants to Nigerian civil society organizations.  Such grants may be made to national, regional, and/or local organizations in Nigeria.  They may support partnerships between Nigerian and international groups for joint implementation to achieve the expected results, or may fund individual civil society activities designed to produce these results.  It is expected that a combination of partnerships and more limited-scope grant making will be used in addition to capacity building activities.  Applicants may also want to consider how rapid response capabilities might be built into some or all aspects of the program.
A: Intermediate Result:  Increased Knowledgeable Participation of Civil Society in Public Deliberations and Oversight of Government
Activities designed to produce the Intermediate Result "Increased knowledgeable participation of civil society in public deliberations and oversight of government" may include, but would not be limited to, those such as the following:

  • Providing technical assistance and support to Nigerian CSOs to develop and implement national, state, and/or local advocacy campaigns targeted on key transition issues;
  • Facilitating development of national, state, and/or local coalitions;
  • Supporting collaboration between civil society organizations and community members to achieve common goals related to priority transition issues;
  • Supporting civic education and community mobilization around priority transition issues;
  • Supporting civil society's participation in public hearings and constituency meetings;
  • Building capacity of civil society organizations to analyze legislation and regulations and develop alternatives;
  • Supporting civil society's engagement of key government institutions; and
  • Supporting civil society efforts to build effective coalitions and/or umbrella organizations addressing priority issues or cross-cutting themes of this program.


B: Priority issue areas
1. Electoral Processes

USAID/Nigeria anticipates a great deal of donor support targeted at the 2002 and 2003 elections.  For this reason, programming in this area will need to be extremely flexible.  Although the proposal should reflect knowledge of what other donors are supporting, USAID will collaborate with the grantee to ensure USAID-funded activities are coordinated with those of other donors.  For the purposes of this solicitation, electoral processes include those of political parties and candidates in preparing for and participating in elections, as well as election administration, voter education and other related activities.  Civil society activities in this area will seek to contribute to increasing the transparency of electoral processes and increasing knowledgeable participation by civil societies and the public in these processes.  This will be done through participation of civil society in public deliberations on the electoral framework, oversight by civil society of all aspects of the electoral process, as well as civic/voter education and mobilization for participation.

Activities in this area may include, but would not be limited to, the following:

  • Supporting advocacy by civil society organizations targeted at key legislation and regulations affecting electoral processes;
  • Building civil society's capacity to monitor electoral processes, such as political party candidate selection, voter registration, candidate campaigns, polling, ballot tabulation, and results announcement;
  • Supporting voter education campaigns;
  • Facilitating mobilization of support for women's participation, leadership, and candidacy;
  • Supporting civil society-organized candidate debates.


2. Conflict Management and Peace Building

Conflict management activities will be designed to increase civil society's role in preventing, managing and mitigating the impact of conflict in Nigeria. Currently, three types of conflict have been identified as priorities for USAID intervention: election-related conflict, ethnic/religious conflict (particularly in Kano, Kaduna, and Lagos), and conflict in the Niger Delta. Though Nigeria frequently experiences conflict outside of electoral cycles and issues, it is expected that elections will be a significant catalyst for conflict  during the period of this cooperative agreement.  Priorities for intervention should be determined based on the degree to which a given conflict threatens Nigeria's transition to civilian, democratic governance, and the feasibility of achieving impact.  Considerations for determining the degree to which a conflict threatens Nigeria's transition would include factors such as the following:

  • Potential for a conflict to undermine popular confidence in civilian, democratic government;
  • Potential for a conflict to derail essential democratic political processes;
  • Potential for a conflict to incite additional conflict in other locations; and
  • Potential for a conflict to undermine the national economy.
Activities here should take account of prior peace-building activities in targeted communities, as well as analyses of the potential for conflict in particular localities.    Activities may include but are not limited to:
  • Providing conflict management training to groups strategically positioned to both mitigate and manage conflicts, such as traditional, ethnic, and religious leaders and organizations; government officials; women's and/or youth groups; students; members of private industry; political party leaders; professional conflict resolution practitioners; and other NGOs.
  • Supporting the development of conflict early warning networks;
  • Establishing effective community conflict management mechanisms, such as peace committees or community-government-industry consultative forums;
  • Supporting the development and implementation of community peace action plans to address conflict issues and sources;
  • Building community capacity to oversee planning and implementation of public projects and policies, particularly those related to conflict sources and delivering the "democratic dividend";
  • Supporting peace advocacy through mass media approaches and other means;
  • Supporting the development of national or regional level conflict databases; and
  • Supporting the compilation and dissemination of lessons learned from community conflict interventions.
  • Encouraging the involvement of more women in conflict mitigation and peace-building initiatives


3. Transparency and Accountability to Reduce Corruption and Increase Government Responsiveness

Activities will be designed to produce some or all of the following results: 1) increased participation of civil society in developing transparency and accountability policies, legislation, and regulations; 2) increased effectiveness of civil society oversight of public institutions; 3) increased legal protection of (and advocacy for) citizen's rights; and 4) enhanced media coverage of transparency and accountability issues.  Activities might include, but are not necessarily limited to, the following:

  • Providing technical assistance to develop and implement national, state, and/or local advocacy strategies and campaigns to increase government transparency and accountability;
  • Supporting civil society's monitoring and oversight role, and engagement of key government oversight institutions;
  • Supporting CSOs that defend citizens rights, such as through pro bono legal services and legal aid clinics;
  • Supporting legal rights awareness and education, and publicizing CSOs that citizens can turn to for legal assistance;
  • Civic education on transparency and accountability issues;
  • Providing training on investigative journalism and balanced reporting; and sensitizing editors and journalists on issues of governance, transparency, and accountability issues and the media's role in them
  • Supporting civil society's participation in public hearings and constituency meetings and promoting the involvement of women.
Strategic targeting of programs under this element will be necessary due to the wide variety of possible activities.  Proposals should provide a particular approach to achieving this result and a clear rationale for choices made, including how they relate to the other priority areas and overall objectives.

It should also be noted that this element is not intended to lead to a full-scale media-strengthening program.  Any proposed media programming should be directly and substantively tied to the objective of reducing corruption and increasing government responsiveness.
4. Constitutional Reform

Civil society's participation in the debate on constitutional reform should be promoted.  Activities may include:

  • Assisting civil society in building consensus on key constitutional reform issues;
  • Supporting collaboration between government and civil society constitutional reform efforts; and
  • Facilitating popular access to and understanding of the constitution.
  • Promoting greater gender sensitivity in constitutional reform processes and debates.
C. Cross-cutting Program Elements

1. Improved Organizational and Management Capacity of Civil Society Organizations

USAID/Nigeria expects the grantee to improve the capacity of at least a subset of the civil society organizations it assists to engage in substantive implementation partnerships in which there is shared responsibility for achieving program results.  Activities should enhance, in a sustainable fashion, organizational capacity and grant worthiness, among other items.  This may include, but would not be limited to, activities such as the following:

  • Providing training on program and performance management;
  • Providing technical assistance in developing financial and program management systems;
  • Supporting activities to promote internal democracy;
  • Providing training on membership development and outreach;
  • Providing technical assistance on board development;
  • Making grants that support institutional needs such as staff or equipment (proportional to the program implemented by the organization);
  • Providing training on proposal writing and fund-raising to strengthen organizational sustainability; and
  • Partnering with organizations to share responsibility for achieving results.
It is understood that not all recipients of funds will benefit from the same level of organizational capacity building.  For example, Nigerian organizations with whom partnerships are established will be expected to show more organizational improvements than sub-grantees.
2. Improved Technical Capacity of Civil Society Organizations to Participate in Public Deliberation and Oversight of Government

USAID/Nigeria expects the grantee to improve the technical capacity of civil society organizations to participate in public deliberations.  This may entail, but would not be limited to, activities such as the following:

  • Providing technical assistance to improve the capacity of civil society to analyze policies, legislation, and regulations within focus areas;
  • Building civil society's capacity to design and conduct advocacy campaigns;
  • Strengthening the capacity of civil society organizations to collaborate with community members in achieving shared community goals;
  • Enhancing civil society's social and political mobilization ability;
  • Increasing civil society's ability to engage and enlighten citizens;
  • Providing technical assistance and training to improve the capacity of CSOs to more effectively utilize the media, conduct public outreach and receive favorable press coverage;
  • Strengthening the capacity of CSOs to collaborate with government institutions, including the formation of public-private partnerships, to promote democratic reforms and manage conflict; and
  • Increasing civil society's ability to represent, defend the legal rights of, and  advocate on behalf of individual citizens.


3. Increased Participation of Women in the Political Process.

Increasing women's participation may include, but would not be limited to, the following:

  • Strengthening  the capacity of women groups to press for gender reform on issues relevant to focal areas;
  • Improving the capacity of women to participate as full and equal partners in all priority program areas;
  • Facilitating the emergence of networks and partnerships among women-led/related NGOs; and
  • Increasing women's opportunity for participation in training and capacity-building activities.

VI. Performance Monitoring Plan

The grantee will be required to develop and implement a performance monitoring plan (PMP) that will measure and monitor progress towards achieving program results under USAID's democracy and governance results framework.  The PMP shall be developed in accordance with USAID's Automated Directives Systems (ADS) on performance monitoring (available at http://www.usaid.gov/pubs/ads/, with reference to the entire 200 series).

VII.  Application Process

USAID/Nigeria anticipates awarding one cooperative agreement from proposal applications submitted in response to this APS.  USAID/Nigeria reserves the right to fund any or none of the applications submitted.  Applications will be competitively reviewed.  Applicants are requested to submit proposals for a 24-month program with accompanying budget for the period January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2003.  (Note:  It is expected that the actual dates of budget application will be adjusted to coincide with the award date.)

VIII. Evaluation Criteria

Shortly after the submission deadline, USAID/Nigeria will competitively review applications received in response to this APS according to the following criteria.  The total points for the technical proposal is 90 points and the cost proposal is 10 points, for a combined total of 100 points.
A. Technical Proposal (Total: 90 points)
1. Key Personnel (30 points)
Do the proposed key personnel have the skills, experience, and expertise to effectively manage the proposed program?  Do the proposed personnel have outstanding leadership and facilitation skills to work effectively with Nigerian partners?  Have proposed personnel worked effectively on similar programs in Nigeria or other developing countries?

2. Technical Approach (25 points)
Are there logical and traceable connections between proposed program interventions and expected results?  Has the technical approach been used successfully in Nigeria or a similar development context?  Does the technical approach utilize state of the art practices for building advocacy and public oversight capacity and effectiveness, promoting conflict management and peace building, improving technical and organizational capacities of civil society organizations, and increasing the participation of women?  Will the proposed approach positively affect the quality of participation by civil society in public deliberations and oversight of government in priority areas?  Will the proposed approach establish tangible linkages with other DG IRs?

3. Management Capability and Organizational Effectiveness (15 points)
Does the applicant demonstrate necessary organizational, technical, accounting, and operational controls capabilities?  Does the management structure include clear definitions of responsibilities for program implementation and achievement of results?  If a coalition is proposed what experiences will the lead organization bring to bear?   Has the organization effectively implemented similar programs in Nigeria or other developing countries?

4. Nigerian Partnerships and Capacity Building (10 points)
Is the degree of responsibility delegated to Nigerian partner organizations supported by a clear analysis of their organizational partnering capacity?  Does the proposed approach include a viable plan to build implementation capacity and grant worthiness of Nigerian organizations in a sustainable fashion?  Does the proposed approach appropriately utilize implementation capacities of Nigerian individuals and organizations?

5. Monitoring and Evaluating Results (10 points)
Does the proposed program provide sufficient human and financial resources for monitoring, evaluating and reporting program results in a manner consistent with USAID/Nigeria's performance monitoring and evaluation system?  Are the proposed results and indicators consistent with USAID/Nigeria DG results framework and the goals articulated in this program statement?  Will evaluation systems contribute to a body of lessons learned?
B. Cost Proposal  (10 points)

What is the cost-effectiveness of the proposed approach and its ability to effect a wide base of beneficiaries?  Are the budget estimates realistic for proposed activities?  Has the applicant considered collaboration opportunities which bring additional resources (cash or in-kind) to complement USAID/Nigeria resources?

IX. Information on Award, Funding and Cost-Sharing Requirements

A. Award and Funding

USAID/Nigeria anticipates awarding one (1) Cooperative Agreement.  The total amount of funds available for activities awarded under the Annual Program Statement is anticipated to be $5.5 million over a period of approximately 24 months, subject to availability of funds.  For illustrative purposes, the table below provides a breakdown, as a percentage of the total budget, of the overall distribution of resources among the four priority areas.  (Note:  $1.4 million in the first year is earmarked for conflict-related activities and must be spent only on conflict activities and related program support costs.)
Activity Area Illustrative Percentage of Program Effort
Priority Areas

  • Electoral processes 25%
  • Constitutional Reform 20%
  • Transparency/Accountability 25%
  • Conflict Management/Peace Building 30%


B. Cost-Sharing
It is USAID policy that the principle of cost-sharing is an important element of the USAID-recipient relationship.  Among other things, cost sharing enables USAID to mobilize additional resources for a program where USAID funding is limited.  It also demonstrates the organization's commitment for the program.  In order to enhance the success of this program, and to demonstrate commitment, the applicant is encouraged to propose cost sharing at 25% level.  Cost-sharing includes contributions, both cash and in-kind, which are necessary and reasonable to achieve program objectives and which are verifiable from the recipient's records.  Cost-sharing contributions may include volunteer services provided by professional and technical personnel, unrecovered indirect costs, instructional and training materials, and funds from other donors as well as contributions from other consortium partners.

X.  Application Format

A. General information

1.  Applicants are encouraged to propose innovative programs designed to reach the desired results.  Included in the program design should be an aggressive but realistic schedule of performance milestones as steps toward reaching proposed results.

2.  Applications will be evaluated based upon both the level of achievement proposed and the realism of the plan for reaching that level of achievement.  Once selected, the grantee's performance will be evaluated against the standards proposed by the grantee and accepted by USAID/Nigeria.

3.  The applicants should present their proposals in two parts:  1) an original and two (2) copies of the technical application (Program Description) which describes the technical approach and specific interventions/activities proposed to achieve the expected outcomes as outlined in Section V of this request; and 2) one (1) original and two copies of the cost proposal (Financial Plan/Business Management Application).

4.  The length of the Technical Application shall not exceed 40 single-spaced typed pages (excluding annexes and executive summary).  Past performance references, performance monitoring plan, organizational capability and personnel resumes are excluded from the 40-page limit.

5.  Unnecessarily elaborate brochures or other presentations beyond those sufficient to present a complete and effective application are not desired and may be construed as an indication of the prospective recipient's lack of cost consciousness.  Elaborate artwork, expensive paper and bindings and expensive visual and other presentation aids are neither necessary nor desired.

B. Technical Application

The technical application is  an extremely important item considered in determining the successful application and in issuing an award.  The technical application must be specific, complete and presented in a concise manner.  The technical application should contain all of the elements as they pertain to the proposed program, respecting the 40-page limit referenced above.

1.  Proposed Approach and General Strategy: The application must include a clear description of the conceptual approach and general strategy (i.e. methodology and techniques) being proposed for the program implementation.  This should include clearly-stated rationales for strategic choices.

2.  Results, Achievement Indicators, Timeline:  The determination of successful performance will be based upon the achievement of the proposed results and not merely the generation of activities.  This process is expected to be dynamic and performance will be monitored on an on-going basis.  The application will be evaluated based upon the level of achievement proposed and the realism of the plan for reaching that level of achievement.  Recipient performance will be evaluated against the standards proposed by the applicant and accepted by USAID/Nigeria; therefore, well-documented realism in the statement of program objectives is essential.

3.  Implementation Plan: The application must provide an illustrative work plan for achieving program objectives.  The applicant is encouraged to propose innovative implementation mechanisms to reach desired results and an aggressive but realistic schedule of performance milestones as steps towards reaching those results.  The implementation plan should be linked with the results timeline mentioned above.

4.  Performance Monitoring Plan: In the proposal, the applicant should articulate the results for which it will be held accountable in each of the priority areas under the Intermediate Result 1.4 as per the Strategic Objective 1 (SO1).  The intermediate result indicators and targets will be defined during the development of the performance monitoring plan in collaboration with USAID and key development partners.

In the proposal, the grantee should clearly articulate expected results and identify illustrative indicators.  To the extent possible, the proposal should give some indication of the scope and/or magnitude of change in the indicators on an annual basis.  This target setting should reflect the proposed budget allocated to specific activities leading to the results identified.

5. Organizational Capability: The application must provide evidence of the organization's technical resources, expertise and capabilities for addressing problems and issues related to expected outcomes for the civil society program.  The application should clearly identify the lead organization and indicate pertinent experience and representative accomplishments in developing and implementing similar programs.  Care should be taken to establish the relevance of past experience to this program and the basis for reliance upon that experience as an indicator of success for the proposed program.  At a minimum, the following should be addressed:

(a) Brief description of organizational history/expertise;
(b) Pertinent work experience and representative accomplishments in developing and implementing programs of the type being proposed;
(c) Evidence of a successful record of implementing similar programs overseas, particularly in Nigeria or English-speaking West Africa;
(d) Relevant experience with proposed approaches;
(e) Institutional strength as represented by experience levels of proposed personnel;
(f) Field management structure and financial controls; and
(g) Home-office backstopping.

Should a consortium make the application, it must provide a description of the proposed management structure for the consortium.  The description must detail which organization would be responsible for coordinating the consortium and ultimately responsible for program results, what roles each organization would play, and which organizations would be working toward which results.

6.  Personnel:  The application must specify the composition and organizational structure of the program team (including home office support) and describe the role of each proposed staff member and the amount of time the staff member will be devoted to the program.  The application must also indicate the names and positions and provide full resumes of key managerial and technical personnel to be assigned to the proposed program.

7.  Mobilization Plan: The application must provide specific information related to the speed with which full start-up can be achieved in each of the priority areas.

8.  Cost-Share Contribution: It is USAID policy that the principle of cost sharing in an important element of the USAID-recipient relationship.  Further, it demonstrates the organization's commitment to the program.  In order to enhance the success of this program, the applicant is highly encouraged to propose cost sharing at a 25% level.  Cost-share includes contributions, both cash and in-kind, which are necessary and reasonable to achieve program objectives and which are verifiable from the recipient's records.  The technical application should indicate the level of cost-share in terms of percentage of program amount and the breakdown and explanation of type of cost share anticipated (e.g. volunteer services, in-kind, cash, un-recovered indirect costs).  The application should indicate other donor funding available to complement this cooperative agreement.

9. Past Performance References: Applicants shall provide a list of all U.S. Government- and/or privately-funded contracts, grants, cooperative agreements, etc. awarded to your organization within the last three fiscal years involving programs similar to the program being proposed in your application.  The following information should be included for each award listed:

(a) Name of awarding organization/agency;
(b) Address of awarding organization/agency;
(c) Place of performance;
(d) Award number;
(e) Award amount;
(f) Award performance period (start and end dates);
(g) Current telephone number, fax number and internet/email address of the responsible technical representative of the awarding organization/agency; and
(h) Brief description/abstract of the program.

10.  Sub-agreements and Partnerships: Applicants shall indicate the extent to which they intend to utilize sub-awardee(s), the method of identifying and selecting the sub-awardee(s) and the tasks/functions the sub-awardee(s) will perform.  If an existing relationship exists with the proposed sub-awardee(s), the applicant shall describe the nature of the relationship.  The application must specify the technical resources, capabilities and expertise of proposed sub-awardee(s).

C. Financial Plan/Business Management Application

The financial plan/business management application shall be in a separate package from the technical application and has no page limitation.  The financial plan/business management application should contain all of the elements specified below, as they pertain to the proposed program:

1.  Application Standard Forms:  Complete and submit the following required forms (mark "N/A" for sections on the forms that are not applicable):
(a) SF 424 Application for Federal Assistance; and
(b) SF 424A Budget Information - Non-Construction Program and (3) SF 424B, Assurances - Non-Construction Programs.

The forms may be downloaded from USAID's web site:
http://www.usaid.gov/procurement_bus_opp/procurement/forms/SF-424/

2.  Financial Plan (budget):  The financial plan should be fully supported by adequate cost data to establish the reasonableness of proposed program costs.  At a minimum, the financial plan shall contain the following:  (a) a summary budget page with total costs by each cost category; (b) annual budgets defined by major program activities; and (c) detailed budget notes and supporting justification of all proposed budget line items.  The total estimated amount for each major program activity must be supported by detailed cost line items, such as personnel salaries and wages, fringe benefits, consultants, allowances, travel and transportation, per diem, training, equipment, sub-contracts/sub-agreements, other direct costs and indirect costs.

In addition, the following should be taken into consideration when developing the financial plan:
(a) Indicate the name, annual salary, fringe benefits and expected level of effort of each person charged to the program;
(b) If not included in the indirect cost rate agreement negotiated with the U.S. Government, specify the applicable fringe benefit rates for each category of employee, and all benefits covered by the rate;
(c) The same information shall be provided for individual consultants as for regular personnel;
(d) Allowances should be broken down by specific type and by person and must be in accordance with the applicant's policies.  All salaries, benefits and allowances must be based on written compensation policies of the employer organization;
(e) Other direct costs such as visas, passports and other general costs should be separate cost line items;
(f) Travel, per diem and other transportation expenses should be detailed in the financial plan to include number of international trips, from where to where, number of per diem days and rates.  Per diem and other travel allowances must be based on written travel policies of the employer organization.  It is understood that specific travel plans may not always be possible to project, thus, the travel proposed might be illustrative but is still an integral part of implementation planning;
(g) Details of all home office support to be provided;
(h) Specific budget details and narrative information, in addition to the percentage and total dollar amount of the proposed cost-share contribution.  Cost-share, once accepted, becomes a condition of payment of the federal share; and
(i) Intended application of program income earned during program period.

3.  Negotiated Indirect Cost Rate Agreement (NICRA):  Provide a copy of the most recent indirect cost rate agreement negotiated with your organization's cognizant U.S. Government agency.

D. Other Relevant Information

1.  Pre-Proposal Conference:  USAID/Nigeria will hold a pre-proposal conference to provide additional information and address technical and contractual questions relating to this solicitation.  The pre-proposal conference will be held on December 12, 2001 from 10:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. at the following venue:

1325 G Street, N.W.(Nile Conference Room)
Washington, DC

Contact person for meeting venue information only:
   Sharon Pauling
   PVO/NGO Civil Society Advisor
USAID/AFR/DP
(202) 712-4748
(202) 216-3016 (fax)
email: spauling@usaid.gov

2.  Questions to be addressed at the pre-proposal conference shall be submitted in writing to the Contracting Officer (not the venue information contact person above) not later than the close of business, November 28, 2001.  Submit questions to:

Courier:     Mail:

USAID/Ghana      USAID/Ghana
ATTN:  Ms. R. Ballen, RCO    ATTN:  Ms. R. Ballen
E45/3 Independence Avenue    2020 Accra Place
P.O. Box 1630      Washington, D.C.  20521-2020
Accra, Ghana

Telephone number:  233-21-228-440
Facsimile number:  233-21-231-937/942
Electronic mail address:  rballen@usaid.gov

Receipt of questions via facsimile or courier is preferred but not mandatory.

2.  Certificates, Assurances and Other Information: If the application is approved technically for award, the following certifications, assurances and other information, as appropriate, will be sent to the applicant organization for completion and signature by an authorized official of the organization:
(a) Assurance of Compliance with Laws and Regulations Governing Nondiscrimination in Federally Assisted Programs;
(b) Certificate Regarding Debarment, Suspension and Other Responsibility Matters - Primary Covered Transactions;
(c) Certificate Regarding Debarment, Suspension, Ineligibility and Voluntary Exclusion - Lower Tier Transactions;
(d) Certification Regarding Drug-Free Workplace Requirements;
(e) Restrictions on Lobbying;
(f) Authorized Negotiators;
(g) Taxpayer Identification Number;
(h) Dun & Bradstreet Number System (Duns No.);
(i) Letter of Credit Number, as applicable;
(j) Type of Organization; and
(k) Agreement on Terms and Conditions.

3.  Administration of Resultant Award(s): Awards to U.S. organizations will be administered in accordance with 22 CFR 226, OMB Circulars and USAID Standard Provisions for U.S. Non-governmental Recipients.  Awards to non-U.S. organizations will be administered in accordance with the USAID Standard Provisions for Non-U.S. Non-governmental Recipients.

4.  APS Outcome: USAID/Nigeria reserves the right to fund any or none of the applications submitted in response to this Annual Program Statement and will not pay for costs incurred in the preparation and submission of an application.

5.  Point of Contact:  All questions related to this Annual Program Statement should be made in writing and addressed to:  Rachel Ballen, Regional Contracting Officer, FAX: 233-21-231937 or e-mail rballen@USAID.gov

Applications are due on January 18, 2002.  Applications shall be submitted to the following addresses:

The original technical proposal (no copies necessary) and the original cost proposal (plus two copies) are to be submitted to the Regional Contracting Officer at the following address:

Courier: Mail:
USAID/Ghana USAID/Ghana
R. Ballen, Regional Contracting Officer R. Ballen, Regional Contracting Officer
E45/3 Independence Ave. 2020 Accra Place
P.O. Box 1630 Washington, DC 20521-2020
Accra, Ghana

Two copies and of the technical proposal are to be mailed to the Technical Evaluation Committee at the following address:

Courier: Mail:

USAID/Nigeria USAID/Nigeria
Attn:  Ms. E. Hart Attn:  Ms. E.Hart
Metro Plaza, Plot 992 8320 Abuja Place
4th Avenue, Central Business District Washington, D.C.  20521-8320
P.M.B. 519 Garki
Abuja, Nigeria

Please Note:  Due to the recent security issues occurring in the U.S. and its embassies, security for the receipt of mail via the "pouch system" is currently very slow.  Please consider that under normal circumstances, mail receipt time is approximately two weeks; therefore, "pouch" mail is not recommended.  Also, if an entity determines that submission via courier services will be used, it is imperative that the RCO (or CTO/ATO) be advised when a package will arrive, the courier's tracking number provided and the courier identified prior to delivery.
 

List of Annexes/web sites

1. Future Directions for USAID Support to Conflict Mitigation in Nigeria {A Conflict Assessment Report Prepared by Associates in Rural Development (ARD)} [Attached]

2. OTI Nigeria Field Reports <http:www.usaid.gov/hum_response/oti/country/nigeria>

3. "Supporting A New Path To Democracy, Prosperity and Leadership" (USAID/Nigeria Country Program Strategy) <http:www.usaid.gov/country/nigeria>
 
 

ATTACHMENT

 

 
 
 
 

Future Directions for USAID Support to Conflict Mitigation in Nigeria
 
 
 

July 12, 2001

By

Wendy Marshall, USAID/Global/DG Center, Democracy Specialist
Mary Hope Schwoebel, Conflict Resolution Specialist
James T. Thomson, West African Institutional Specialist and Team Leader
James S. Wunsch, Professor of Political Science and Nigeria Specialist

Submitted to:

USAID/Nigeria and USAID/OTI/Nigeria
Metro Plaza
Plot 992, 4th Avenue
Central Business District
P.M.B. 519, Garki
Abuja, Nigeria

Submitted by:

ARD, Inc.
159 Bank Street, Third Floor
Burlington, VT 05401
telephone: (802) 658-3890; fax: (802) 658-4247
e-mail: ard@ardinc.com
 

Task Order No.
Under USAID Contract No. AEP-I-00-99-00041-00
General Democracy and Governance Analytical Support and
Implementation Services Quantity Contract
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS iii

GLOSSARY v

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY vii
A. Background on Conflict in Nigeria vii
B. Incentives to Promote Conflict vii
C. Mitigating and Transforming Conflicts viii
D. Conflict Intervention: A General Approach viii
E. USAID/Nigeria: Recommended Strategy for Conflict Mitigation viii
F. Mechanisms for Intervention ix

I. INTRODUCTION 1

II. BACKGROUND OF CONFLICT IN NIGERIA 4
A. Identity and Values: Ethnicity and Religion 4
B. Military Rule/Misrule 5
C. Oil Wealth/Federal Domination of Economy 6
D. Perceived Regional Power Disparities 7

III. POLICY ENVIRONMENT 9
A. State-Federal Balance 9
1. Economics 9
2. Religion: Secular or theocratic systems at state level 10
3. Police and security 10
B. Corruption 11
C. Elections 12
1. Policy on political party recognition/numbers 12
2. INEC 12

IV. GENERAL APPROACH TO CONFLICT MITIGATION 13
A. Elements of the Approach 13
B. OTI's Experience with This Approach 14

V. FINDINGS/LESSONS LEARNED 15
A. Nigerian Institutions Affecting Conflict 15
1. Marked variation in governance structures 15
2. Substantial differences in CBOs/CSOs 16
3. Religious differences: Intra-Islamic and intra-Christian variations 16
4. Regional variations in sources, issues, and dynamics of conflict 17
5. Elections 2002/2003: Potential dynamics and regional issues 18
6. Ricochet riots effect: Locally violent clashes incite lethal violence elsewhere 19
7. Media and violence 19
B. Nigerian Organizations for Conflict Mitigation/Peacebuilding 20
1. CRESNET 20
2. Other organizational resources in Nigeria relevant to conflict mitigation/peacebuilding-universities 22
3. Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies (CEPACS)-University of Ibadan 22
4. Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution-University of Jos 22
5. Potential CRESNET-university linkages 23
6. Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution 23
7. Lagos State 24
8. Donors: DFID/UNDP/UN Foundation/oil companies 24
C. Prioritizing Conflicts in Nigeria by Potential for Destabilizing Civilian Governance 25
1. Criteria for selecting conflict intervention targets 25
2. Conflict types 25

VI. RECOMMENDATIONS 28
A. Justification for Proposed Activities-Religious and Economic-Ethnic Confrontations 28
1. Religious violence 29
2. Economic-ethnic confrontations 29
3. Electoral violence 30
B. Intervening in Priority Conflicts 30
1. Strengthening CRESNET 32
2. Drawing on existing strengths in Nigerian universities 33
 3. Sensitivity to perceptions of religious or ethnic bias in implementing community interventions .....34
C. Linkages 34
1. Economic growth 34
2. Police 34
3. Justice 34
4. Civil society 34
5. Civil-military 35

VII. PLAN OF ACTION 36
A. Avoiding Loss of Momentum in Conflict Resolution 36
B. Supporting CRESNET, Universities, and Other Relevant Institutions 36
1. Linkages 36
2. Donor coordination 36

APPENDIX A: TERMS OF REFERENCE A-1

APPENDIX B: BIBLIOGRAPHY B-1

APPENDIX C: PERSONS INTERVIEWED C-1

APPENDIX D: METHODOLOGY D-1

APPENDIX E: BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON KEY AREAS E-1
 

 IV. ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AD Alliance for Democracy (political party strongest in Yoruba area; see Glossary)
ADR Alternative dispute resolution
BBC British Broadcasting Corporation
CAN Christian Association of Nigeria
CAREFOR Campaign for the Reforestation of Katsina State (Nigerian environmental NGO)
CBO Community-based organization
CEDPA Centre for Development and Population Activities
CEPACS Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies (University of Ibadan operational interdisciplinary conflict resolution program)
CPCR Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution (University of Jos planned conflict resolution program)
CR  Conflict resolution
CRESNET Conflict Resolution Stakeholders' Network
CSO Civil society organization
DFID Department for International Development (Great Britain's development agency)
DG  Democracy and Governance
DoD Department of Defense
E.H. El Haji, honorific title applied to any Muslim while s/he is completing the haji, the pilgrimage to Mecca, as well as after completion
GFRN Government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria
IFES International Foundation for Electoral Systems
INEC Independent Nigerian Electoral Commission
IP Implementing partner
IPCR Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution
LGA Local Government Area
NCSC National Center for State Courts
NDDC Niger Delta Development Corporation
NGO Non-governmental organization
NIPSS National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies
NPF National Police Force
OPC Oodudwa People's Congress, Yoruba ethnic association (alternate spelling: O'odua People's Congress)
OTI Office of Transition Initiatives, constituent unit of the United States Agency for International Development
OTI/NIGERIA Office of Transition Initiatives country office in Nigeria
PDP People's Democratic Party (President Obasanjo's party, currently in the majority)
SCSN Supreme Council for Sharia in Nigeria
SPDC Shell Petroleum Development Corporation
TOT Training of Trainers
UN United Nations
UNDP United Nations Development Program
USAID United States Agency for International Development
USAID/NIGERIA United States Agency for International Development Mission in Nigeria
VOA Voice of America

 V. GLOSSARY

Afenifere: Yoruba ethnic leaders who play a powerful role in slating political candidates for the Alliance for Democracy (AD) party.

Area Boys: Social miscreants often available for rioting.

Bakassi Boys: Vigilante youth group active in Nigeria's Southeastern geopolitical zone.

Conflict: Conditions and dynamics in which two or more parties are in a situation in which the goals of one or both parties are incompatible because existing structures, processes, or relationships result in the basic human needs (both material and nonmaterial) of one or both parties not being met. Since basic human needs are considered to be nonnegotiable, the resolution of conflicts generally requires approaches that go beyond mere bargaining or negotiations, to include changes in those structures, processes, and relationships.

Conflict Mitigation: Intervention in cases in which violent conflict has occurred and amelioration of the immediate results of violent conflict.

Conflict Management: Solving problems or settling disputes and/or establishing mechanisms to solve problems or settle disputes.

Conflict Resolution: Addressing the underlying sources of conflicts, rather than the immediate surface issues, so that conflicts do not persist or recur.

Conflict Transformation: Approaching the resolution of conflicts as opportunities to change the relationships between the parties, as well as to change the parties themselves, in positive ways. Some authors use the term to denote not only changes in relationships and individuals, but also changes in the social, political, or economic structures in which conflicts are embedded.

Conflict Prevention: Efforts to prevent violent conflicts by addressing their underlying structural and relational sources, as well as by establishing mechanisms to address conflicts in constructive ways.

Dagaci: Head of an urban district within the Kano indigenous Hausa-Fulani system of governance.

Dispute: Conditions and dynamics in which two or more parties are in a situation in which the interest-based goals of one or both parties are incompatible. Since interests are considered negotiable, disputes can be resolved through bargaining and negotiation that lead to compromise (in which each party wins something and loses something) or through problem-solving approaches that lead to collaboration (or win-win solutions).

Hausa-Fulani: Major Nigerian ethnic complex combining two ethnic groups, the sedentary Hausa and the transhumant, pastoral Fulani (Fulbe). Although large numbers of Fulani remain pastoralists in northern areas of Nigeria, many have settled there as farmers or city dwellers. Fulani descended from Uthman Dan Fodio, the Fulani Muslim conqueror who organized the early nineteenth century jihad to replace lax Muslim or pagan Hausa leaders with practicing Muslims, remain important in indigenous governance structures in much of Nigeria's northern region.

Hisba: Muslim volunteers who organize patrols to enforce application of shari'a provisions.

Igbo: Major Nigerian ethnic group based in the Southeast region.

Jihad: Islamic religious war destined to extend the Muslim faith to conquered areas.

Magajin Gari: In the Katsina Emirate, title of the individual (emir's eldest son) who currently administers the city of Katsina.

Naira: Nigerian currency unit. Rate as of May 2001, $1 US = 120 Naira.

Peacekeeping: Third-party military intervention to stop violence but not to go beyond the cessation of violence and enforcement of peace. The most common types of actors in such situations are multinational peacekeeping forces.

Peacemaking: Interventions by official governmental actors to draw up formal agreements between parties, such as peace accords. The most common types of actors are high-level international or third-party diplomats.

Peacebuilding: The broad range of interventions that aim to address the psychological, relational, and structural aspects of conflict, including social, political, and economic injustice and underdevelopment. The most common types of actors are representatives of unofficial, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), such as religious or civil society leaders.

Sarki: Hausa term for chief or emir (e.g., Sarkin Kano, Emir of Kano).

Shari'a: Muslim legal code that governs both civil relations and criminal matters. Currently applied in some (northern) Nigerian states.
 
 

VI. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Nigeria, like many other countries, confronts a number of internal conflicts. Since independence in 1960 it has survived a civil war. It has also survived a series of military regimes that have exacerbated many conflicts by treating them as illegitimate dissent. Rather than working with people and groups to transform the structures, issues, and relationships that underlie those conflicts, most Nigerian military leaders sought instead to suppress the symptoms, particularly when conflicts turned violent.

A. A. Background on Conflict in Nigeria

The upshot of the policy of suppression became clear when Nigeria returned again at the very end of the twentieth century to civilian rule and launched its Third Republic. Conflicts that had festered under the preceding military regimes, becoming more venomous and difficult to process with the passage of time, burst into the open shortly after the accession of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo to the Nigerian presidency on May 29, 1999.

The array of conflicts is bewildering; the intensity of the violence often stunning. In the short space of two years since a democratically elected civilian administration took power, armed confrontations have erupted throughout the country over such issues as:

Religion;
Economic power and opportunities;
Political power and offices;
Division of wealth (known colloquially as "the federal cake") derived from subsurface nonrenewable resources-principally petroleum in the Niger Delta and neighboring areas-and controlled by the federal government;
Land;
Renewable natural resources, including livestock forage, woodstocks, and fisheries;
Environmental damage;
Labor-management relations;
Urban "turf" disputes among youth gangs;
Disputes among youth of rural communities; and
Police-related violence.

Some of these conflicts occur along ethnic lines and therefore have a potential to spread to other areas, whereas other sorts of conflicts are more localized and less threatening to the broader Nigerian political system.

Thousands of people have died in violent interactions tied to incompatible visions of religion within the context of a state whose constitution is ambiguous as to whether the state is to be secular, and in battles between ethnic groups over control of markets and other income-generating enterprises such as slaughterhouses. Many of these outbreaks have given rise to the phenomenon designated here as ricochet riots, in which members of the ethnic group considered to have suffered the most casualties in the first round of violent conflict evens the score by attacking members of the other ethnic group elsewhere in the country. Typically those attacked have emigrated and settled in areas where the first-round "losers" are both indigenes and dominant, leaving the settlers critically exposed to attack in the second round. These tit-for-tat assaults heighten tensions as people of both groups find it prudent to plan for third and subsequent rounds.

B. B. Incentives to Promote Conflict

The principled and the unscrupulous alike can profit from violence. For some religious leaders, martyrdom of some followers strengthens faith and commitment among others. Some politicians identify themselves with programs of religious groups (e.g., by legislating application as state law of the criminal sections of the Islamic shari'a legal code, 95% of which concerns personal and civil conduct rather than criminal behavior). Members of ethnic groups, both leaders and followers, seek advantage by driving out competitors from other ethnic groups from their home areas. This kind of nativist reaction to outsiders, phrased in terms of indigene-settler opposition, reflects popular perceptions that the Nigerian economy is shrinking, and that most people can hope only for meaningless crumbs from the federal cake.

C. C. Mitigating and Transforming Conflicts

Despite this litany of woes, much can be done to mitigate conflict in Nigeria. USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI) has, since the fall of 1999, enabled many, many Nigerians to demonstrate that they fervently seek peace. OTI, with a two-year mandate to support Nigeria's transition from military to civilian democratic rule, has progressively focused its efforts on aiding and abetting Nigeria peacemakers at all levels in the society. Nigerians, for their part, have proven repeatedly that they will invest energy and long hours in acquiring the skills and techniques of peacebuilding, and will spend countless days trying to apply those skills through individual interventions and peace and reconciliation committees in efforts to prevent or halt violence.

Once the violence has stopped, many peacemakers in Nigeria continue to work with former antagonists to restructure the relationships, structures, and processes that gave rise to violent conflict in the first place. Their efforts have borne fruit in a sufficiently wide variety of places and situations in the country (see Boer, 2000: Appendix B) to suggest that further support for conflict resolution in Nigeria will pay important dividends, not only in reducing violent confrontations, but in gradually transforming conflicts and building relationships of peace and trust that form the indispensable foundation for economic development.

D. D. Conflict Intervention: A General Approach

OTI has worked to promote the sustainability of the Conflict Resolution Stakeholders' Network (CRESNET), a professional association of Nigerians dedicated to promoting peace and conflict resolution (CR) in their country. Together, OTI staff and CRESNET members have pursued a general, four-part strategy to intervene in community conflicts:

1. Sensitizing and training of stakeholders in specific conflicts;
2. Facilitating stakeholder dialogue;
3. Developing understanding among stakeholders; and
4. Monitoring implementation of understandings.

In this tested approach, peacemakers first intervene in conflicts to help stakeholders realize that they can pursue alternatives to violence and confrontation. Peacemakers also help stakeholders acquire skills so that antagonistic stakeholders can begin talking seriously with each other about issues that cause conflict because the issues involve divergent or contradictory basic needs of the stakeholders. Through brainstorming sessions, peacemakers then support discussions that lead to agreements among stakeholders on how they can move beyond the current conflict. Finally, mechanisms must be created to monitor whether all parties comply with their agreements and to report findings regularly and in a highly transparent manner.

E. E. USAID/Nigeria: Recommended Strategy for Conflict Mitigation

Nigeria is a huge country with a population well in excess of 100 million. USAID is working with a two-year programming timeframe (FY2002-2003) for the next phase of support to CR in Nigeria. Three other criteria likewise constrain the choice of CR activities. The first is formulated by reference to the Mission's Strategic Objective 1: Sustain Transition to Democratic Civilian Governance. Conflict mitigation interventions should focus on conflicts that threaten that transition. Second, conflicts that can damage the national economy sufficiently to undermine the transition should also be targeted. Finally, conflicts that are prone to generate ricochet riots should be targeted.

These criteria suggest that the Mission should narrow its CR focus to a small subset of the total number of conflicts currently affecting Nigeria and Nigerians. The choice should be driven by the intensity of the threat to the transition, as well as by the need to select a manageable number of conflicts on which to work. This suggests that Mission support for conflict mitigation activities should incorporate a geographic focus.

Many conflicts, although dangerous to the lives and property of immediate stakeholders, are localized and do not particularly threaten the transition to democratic civilian governance. Included here are disputes over land, renewable resources, environmental issues, youth battles over sundry issues, labor-management strife, and police-related violence. The remaining major types of conflict-religious, economic, and political struggles, as well as issues surrounding the allocation of oil wealth among various jurisdictions within the country-all pose, in decreasing order of severity, potential threats to the transition to democratic civilian governance.

Recent religious strife over incorporating criminal sections of the shari'a code into state legislation (11 of 19 northern states have now taken this step, although not all have passed implementing rules and regulations) culminated in armed clashes in Kaduna City during February and again during May 2000. These battles left more than 2,000 Muslims and Christians dead. But the political leaders of Kaduna State have taken vigorous action to prevent repetition of these conflicts. They have established a peace and reconciliation committee, they have taken steps to limit the application of shari'a provisions to those areas of Kaduna State where Muslims constitute substantial majorities, and they have begun to work on some of the underlying economic problems that lead many youth from rural areas of the state to migrate to urban centers. Frequently those young people cannot find work and so can be easily mobilized for small amounts of money to participate in confrontations over religious issues. Kaduna State thus offers a significant positive example of conflict mitigation, the support and expansion to which USAID should commit itself.

Two other states have a strong potential for violence and for generating ricochet riots: Lagos and Kano. Particularly in the country's two largest cities, Lagos and Kano, violence formulated along ethnic lines has flared over both religious and economic issues. These pit the largely Muslim Hausa-Fulani indigenes of the north against the southern Yoruba and Igbo. The Yoruba, divided equally between Islam and Christianity, are indigenes of the Southwest, including Lagos State. The Igbo, largely Christian, are indigenes of the Southeast. The potential for ricochet riots is extremely strong because major Hausa-Fulani settler communities exist in Lagos as elsewhere throughout the South, and these are mirrored by large concentrations of Yoruba and Igbo settlers established in the sabon gari (Hausa: new town) sections of most northern cities.

Electoral violence has to date been concentrated predominately in the South South and Southwest. Further analysis of historical patterns of such violence and areas where political competition in the upcoming elections is expected to be particularly intense could provide additional clues to predicting priority intervention locations.

F. F. Mechanisms for Intervention

USAID should engage an implementing partner to work over the next two years on the following three areas:

1. Capacity building

  • strengthening CRESNET;
  • strengthening academic CR centers located at the Universities of Ibadan (operational) and Jos (under development); and
  • supporting linkages between CRESNET practitioners and academic centers to enhance the applied skills of the practitioners.


2. Community intervention

  • supporting, through CRESNET or other CR NGOs, intervention in priority community conflicts by training community leaders, religious leaders, youth, women leaders, indigenous government officials, secular government officials at all levels, and other relevant stakeholders in CR skills;
  • promoting development of agreements among these stakeholders to address conflict issues through appropriate forms of facilitated negotiation; and
  • supporting establishment, or strengthening, of institutional mechanisms that will allow community-based organizations, religious groups, and local and state governments to pursue development activities designed to reduce the potential for conflict by addressing underlying sources of conflict (economic, political, religious, ethnic).


3. Electoral violence

  • targeting support for mitigating electoral violence in locations that have a history of such violence and where particularly intense political competition is anticipated, coupled with organizing a database on electoral violence at one of the university centers;
  • providing training and financial support to community, youth, and women's groups for monitoring and publicly reporting electoral violence and for nonviolent election advocacy; and
  • providing CR training to election officials, political parties, poll-watchers, and other election stakeholders.
Capacity-building activities would draw heavily on existing Nigerian professionals, academics, and practitioners. The bulk of the work on religious-ethnic-economic conflict would be concentrated in Kaduna, Kano, and Lagos states, but CRESNET could provide professional CR trainers to work in other areas of the country-for example, in the South South states of the Niger Delta area, if USAID staff decided that was appropriate.
 VII. I. INTRODUCTION

Nigeria, with a population of 120 million, vast natural resources, and highly developed human resources, could provide the key to a peaceful and prosperous future for at least West Africa and, probably, for much of the rest of the African continent. Corrupt and arbitrary governance in Nigeria can and has imposed serious inconveniences on its neighbors. On the other hand, Nigerian success in consolidating effective systems of democratic governance can inspire and enable success elsewhere. Achievements in democratic civilian governance in Nigeria would demonstrate that Africans can indeed deal with their challenging political and economic problems. Were Nigeria to get its house in order, it could generate enormous economic energy that would create a magnet and a market for the rest of West Africa. If its leadership recaptures its former status, the country can take the region forward on a number of fronts, not least of all peacekeeping. Finally, its successes would generate lessons that, appropriately adapted to changed contexts, could be usefully shared with its neighbors. Indeed, it is not unrealistic to suppose that Nigeria could potentially exert the kind of impact on the rest of Africa that democratic success in the Iberian peninsula had subsequently in Latin America.

The fledgling Nigerian Third Republic, however, faces many challenges. Perhaps the most explosive and destructive of these is the ethnic and religious conflict that has torn at Nigeria since the first two coups and ensuing pogroms of 1966. These were followed by electoral disputes that wrenched its first two attempts at democracy, ending both of those efforts before they had had a chance to take root and grow into established systems of civilian governance.

Destructive ethnic and religious conflicts have continued throughout the 1990s and into the first decade of the new century, occasioning the loss of thousands of lives and destroying much property of people who already experience grinding poverty. These conflicts must be carefully distinguished from the myriad disputes found in Nigeria as in all human societies.

The box at right indicates how these terms are used in this assessment of conflict in Nigeria.

The diverse groups of Nigeria generally co-exist peacefully in mixed ethnic neighborhoods throughout the country's urban areas. Nonetheless, members of different ethnic groups often look with suspicion on one another. They remember the violence of the past, and remain sensitive to slights, insults, and "unfair" advantages. They frequently interpret the actions of members of other groups as efforts to assert (or reassert) domination over them. Each group has its own history of perceived slights, injuries, and disadvantages experienced at the hands of other groups. Each group has militants to mobilize those most ready to engage in intergroup violence, and each group has hurt members of the others. If these cycles of violence cannot be stopped, the next elections will predictably escalate the conflict, as each major group seeks to protect itself from the others by acquiring political power. Smaller groups will inevitably suffer in these conflicts. In this circumstance, Nigeria could easily slip back into another round of authoritarian governance, with all the nasty consequences that military regimes have triggered over much of the last two decades. This could indeed provoke general violence, perhaps state collapse and dismemberment reminiscent of Yugoslavia's. This outcome must be prevented.

Against this backdrop of recent Nigerian history follow several observations. Conflicts per se do not cause concern in Nigeria, but atrophying of the means to manage them does. A society of 120 million people cannot function without generating disputes. Humans-whether as individuals or organized in families, groups, firms, or governments at various levels-often differ in their perspectives on the myriad issues that span the gamut from minor problems of daily life to fundamental questions such as the country's constitutional structure. From these differences of perspective flow, inevitably, discussions and arguments. Some escalate into disputes. All this is perfectly normal and prosaic in a democracy where people enjoy freedom to express opinions and where entrepreneurs, both public and private, enjoy freedom to pursue opportunities.

In these very typical circumstances, disputes typically signal unresolved problems. They also highlight areas of opportunity to restructure institutional arrangements, the distribution of resources, and even values, in ways that consider the interests of all active and passive stakeholders in a problem. Furthermore, systems of governance that can successfully craft, negotiate, or mediate solutions to problems typically grow in power and authority and in their ability to process new rounds of disputes successfully: practice makes perfect.

At present, Nigeria cannot successfully manage disputes--a key test of an effective system of governance. Twenty years of military misrule underlie this failure. The soldiers in power for all but four years, from 1975 to 1999, viewed disputes as evidence of defiance and resistance to their will in a command and control system (Osaghae, 1998: 21). That system concentrated power at the apex of a hierarchy, and the ruling soldiers did not view disputes as opportunities to craft more productive solutions to collective problems.

With the advent of Nigeria's Third Republic on May 29, 1999, elementary democratic freedoms once again replaced military repression. But that shift of power from military to civilian leaders did not automatically revive dispute resolution capacities in the country. Indeed, in the relaxation of controls a broad range of disputes surfaced that military leaders had, for the previous 15 years, actively repressed. These disputes threatened, in many areas of the country, to overwhelm dispute resolution capabilities. Often, disputes not only threatened to, but did in fact, exceed resolution capacities, erupting in lethal conflicts with extensive loss of life and property. These events have shaken public confidence in the capacity of Nigeria's new democratic system of governance to ensure the minimum conditions of security necessary for a peaceful existence and for development.

USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI) stepped into this breach in September 1999. Among other activities OTI took on,  its support for Nigerians already engaged in the struggle to improve conflict resolution (CR) capacities throughout the country has emerged as a key investment for Nigeria. OTI/Nigeria spent the bulk of its FY2000 grants budget on conflict management ($1,803,812 distributed in 52 separate grants to 43 grantees; OTI/Nigeria, 2000: 1, Table 1). OTI is now rapidly approaching the end of its two-year mandate, and will have withdrawn from Nigeria by the end of FY2001.

Few doubt the need for USAID/Nigeria to continue to support the work begun by OTI/Nigeria. Support for conflict management and for creation of a network of Nigeria conflict management specialists has clearly produced tangible and important results in peace keeping (OTI/Nigeria, 2000: 4-12; Boer, 2000: Annexes 2 and 3). The Mission now seeks to program CR activity for the next two fiscal years, 2002-2003. This activity will fall within the framework of its Democracy and Governance Strategic Objective (SO1: Sustain Transition to Democratic Civilian Governance).

Concerning follow-on work, relevant questions include: How? In what form? For what types of conflicts? and Where? In answering these questions, this report draws on background reading and two weeks of interviews with four separate groups: a broad spectrum of Nigerians engaged in or concerned about CR; OTI/Nigeria staff; USAID/Nigeria personnel; and representatives of other donor agencies. It begins with a rapid review of the roots of conflict in contemporary Nigeria, then turns to the policy environment as it affects CR possibilities. The next section presents a general approach to intervening in conflict situations, and shows how OTI/Nigeria has pursued this approach during its two-year mandate. Findings and lessons learned are considered in the following section. The report concludes with recommendations and a plan of action. Appendices include (A) Terms of Reference, (B) Bibliography, (C) Persons Interviewed, (D) Methodology, and (E) Background Information on Key Areas of the country where the report proposes that USAID pursue follow-on activities.

These areas have been selected either because, like Kano, Lagos/Southwest, and the Delta/South South, they appear to have potential for (renewed) conflict or, like Kaduna, because they point the way to effective conflict mitigation and realistic, development-oriented approaches to addressing the underlying sources of conflict. This set of activities represents, in the team's judgment, a logical continuation and deepening of a path pioneered by Nigerians with consistent and effective OTI/Nigeria support.

A four-person team conducted this assessment of conflict in Nigeria over 19 days (April 30-May 18, 2001). The assessment team consisted of:

Wendy Marshall, USAID/Global/DG Center, democracy specialist;
Mary Hope Schwoebel, CR specialist;
James T. Thomson, West African institutional specialist and team leader; and
James S. Wunsch, professor of political science and Nigeria specialist.
 VIII. II. BACKGROUND OF CONFLICT IN NIGERIA

Conflict in contemporary Nigeria largely flows from the interactions among four elements of its recent history:

1. Its complex mix of diverse ethnic groups and religions (Osaghae, 1994, 1995a, 1995b, 1998) and a persistent feeling of marginalization by many ethnic groups of all scales within the society (Ibelema, 2000);
2. Twenty years of military misrule and generally poor governance;
3. Existence of vast and rich oil deposits in the Niger Delta, coupled with the dominant role the federal government has played in controlling oil wealth, as well as the economy in general; and
4. Perceptions by southerners that the country's northern region has dominated the federal government since independence, preventing them from gaining access to positions and power at the federal level, coupled with northerners' perceptions that they must maintain a strong political position within the Government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (GFRN) to avoid being marginalized in competition with southerners. (Because northerners have lost power within the federal government under the current civilian regime, their apprehensions on this score have sharpened appreciably.)

A. A. Identity and Values: Ethnicity and Religion

Nigeria's ethnic and religious diversity means that its peoples hold significantly different perceptions of history and of one another, their values often diverge on fundamental issues, and they live their lives in inherited, indigenous institutions characterized more by their differences than by their similarities. Under the current Nigerian civilian regime, religious and ethnic confrontations have repeatedly erupted. These events have, unfortunately, accentuated individuals' identification with their ethnic and religious groups. Most can now be mobilized through such groups as almost instantaneous coalitions in competition for economic advantage and political power. As control over political power often creates economic leverage, politicians face a constant temptation to appeal to primordial identifications in trying to win or retain office. Such strategies may succeed for individual politicians but, cumulatively, they drive up the level of tension and conflict within the society at large.

Repeatedly since independence in 1960, competition among groups has escalated into violence. Sometimes conflicts grow out of genuinely different visions of how a good society is ordered. The current controversy over implementing criminal aspects of the Islamic shari'a code fits this pattern. Particularly in northern states, this dispute pits indigenous Muslim populations supportive of shari'a against southern, Middle Belt, and even northern Christians who fear the shari'a movement as an instrument of political domination.

Sometimes, elites in their pursuit of political and economic power have "played the ethnic card" and inflamed their followers to violent conflict, as in the First Republic. John Paden noted nearly 30 years ago in his study Religion and Political Culture in Kano that new ethnic categories ("southerner," "northerner") arose when southerners, particularly Igbo, began to threaten economic interests of the far-flung Hausa commercial empire based in Kano. The policy of northernization, adopted by northern elites during the late 1950s, sought to open jobs for Hausa in commercial firms in Kano; gain greater access to government contracts, civil service posts, and financial services; and reassert control over produce export (Paden, 1973: 322-323). The fear of losing out economically heightened the sense among northern indigenes of marginalization. "Northernization established the predominance of politics over economics, which made political competition at the national level a matter of primary concern" (ibid.: 334-335). Nothing in the four decades since independence has lessened these concerns.

At still other times, genuine grassroots movements have sprung from feelings of grievance within an ethnic group and a sense that the federal government has persecuted its members, as happened among many Yoruba in the post-Abiola era. Many minorities in the Middle Belt, in Delta states, and elsewhere in the country have felt marginalized for much of the twentieth century. That feeling persists today (Ibelema, 2000). These groups include dispersed minorities such as the Ijaw in Delta, Ondo, and Edo states, separated from the main concentration of Ijaw in Bayelsa State, and non-Muslim minorities in northern states-for example, the Katab, Kaje, Gbabyi, Numana, Kono, Kagoma, and Chawai in the southern part of Kaduna State (Osaghae, 1998: 6, 9). Until the religious riots of 2000 precipitated an adjustment in institutional arrangements that recognized these groups as autonomous, they had been subjected to the overlordship of the Hausa-Fulani rulers of Zazzau, the Muslim emirate that ruled much of what is now Kaduna State throughout the nineteenth century (Smith, 1960). Other conflicts arising from feelings of marginalization among some groups in the population include the Tiv-Jukun and Aguleri-Umuleri conflicts and the 1992 Zango Kataf riots in the Kafanchan region of southern Kaduna State.
The incident that triggered the Zango Kataf conflict turned on control of the local market. In the mid-eighteenth century, Hausa traders founded the town of Zango Kataf and a market, in an area populated by non-Muslim people they call Kataf. The Zazzau rulers, both Hausa and Hausa-Fulani, used the town as a basis for slave raids in neighboring villages. When the Atyab, as those indigenes call themselves, elected for the first time an Atyab man to head the local government, they decided in May 1992 to move the market to get more room. Hausa traders opposed the move because they feared it would set a precedent for non-Muslim control of the market. One thing led to another and soon Christian Atyab attacked Muslim Hausa in Zango Kataf. This led to calls for a jihad in the more northerly parts of Kaduna State. Only after the army moved in did the rioting end, but not before several hundred lives were lost (Maier, 2000).

Other conflicts clothed in the trappings of ethnicity have erupted as competition sharpens among different production systems for certain renewable resources. The perennial confrontations between sedentary farmers and transhumant pastoralists appear to pit Fulani (Fulbe) herders against Hausa, or Kanuri, or Yoruba, or Middle Belt minority groups. As agriculture spreads into arable areas formerly reserved for use as pastures, herders have a harder time finding forage for their animals. Some resort to putting their cows in other people's corn, leading to disputes and, not infrequently, violence.

Other tenure issues pose similar struggles of control over access to and use of renewable resources (e.g., arable land, wooded areas, fisheries, and water sources). Although these struggles may be between individuals from different ethnic groups, they can just as well pit members of the same ethnic group against each other. An example is the 150-year-long Ife-Modakeke struggle, named for the adjacent areas in question, between Yoruba indigenes (original occupants) and Yoruba settlers (families who moved into the area after it had been settled and claimed by the indigenes). Because these struggles concern resources on which people's very existence depends, they can easily degenerate into deadly conflicts.

These differences in values, histories, and sense of autonomous identities create critical and persistently dangerous fractures among Nigeria's peoples. Although these ethnic groups are not intrinsically hostile, they often harbor suspicions about one another based, to an extent, on personal experience from the capture and use of power, and have often shown themselves ready to believe and act on exaggerated and inflammatory rumors. The generalized perception among many groups that Nigeria is stagnating economically certainly fuels these frictions. If people felt the economy were expanding rapidly, they might be less inclined to respond to ethnic appeals. But since many believe the economy is shrinking, any tool that can protect an individual's economic future is welcome. This heightens the reliance on ethnic and religious identifications and accentuates the differences among groups (Cohen, 1969). Political actors can manipulate such differences to advance their own agendas and careers-though sometimes at awful cost to those affected when violence ensues.

B. B. Military Rule/Misrule

Twenty years of military rule and poor governance from 1975 to 1999 have done much to intensify the prospects for conflict, while seriously damaging Nigerian society's capacity to contain, manage, and resolve disputes. The vast looting of petroleum-derived public resources, the open door to corruption, and the lack of accountability of GFRN officials to citizens combined to produce economic stagnation, declining living standards, and abuse of power. Protests highlighting these ills, such as in Ogoni land in the Niger Delta over oil-related problems, and in the Southwest over the 1993 elections, elicited immediate and ruthless repression from most of Nigeria's military regimes (i.e., those headed by Buhari and Sani Abacha).

Simultaneously, praetorian leaders and their military and civilian supporters corrupted, dismissed, or destroyed the staffs of the conventional institutions of constitutional systems for managing conflict, such as legislatures, human rights commissions, and courts. Notable among them was Ibrahim Babangida (1985-1993). He employed gentler tactics than his friend Abacha, but did more to corrupt the society as a whole (Maier, 2000). Military leaders also corrupted, manipulated, and intimidated local-level, indigenous, and community institutions of conflict management and collective action. Military misrule weakened the economy and severely undermined the middle class and the institutions it staffed (universities and the civil service). Growing inequality brought together a generation of youths facing extremely limited economic prospects, led to the rise of intimidating groups of "area boys" (local toughs), and forced all political players to compete for their "slice of the federal cake." Many analysts also assert that poverty explains much of the rise of contemporary mass religious movements, whether in the South or the North.

During this same period the military government ignored or suppressed burning problems and grievances, which are now bursting into the open. These include the problem of the rise of serious crime and personal insecurity, illustrated by the growth of the area boys, the corruption of the police and much of the judicial system, and the rise of vigilantism as practiced by the "Bakassi Boys" and the Oodudwa People's Congress (OPC). Although crime appears less an issue in the North, many assert that popular support for the Muslim hisba groups, who work to enforce the shari'a, can be understood as a rejection of the social disorder growing in part from the corruption and decline of conventional governance institutions. In the oil-rich Delta, Nigeria's failure to deal with the environmental and economic problems has spawned persistent, low-grade anarchic behavior, typically between small groups of youths and oil companies, but also frequently between youths from neighboring communities. Depending on circumstances, such groups function either as self-defense associations or incipient mafias.

In summary, 20 years of misrule destroyed both formal and informal institutions of governance and led to severe problems in the society at large, in the economy at all levels, and in personal security. It also unleashed lawlessness in much of the Delta.

C. C. Oil Wealth/Federal Domination of Economy

Many of contemporary Nigeria's conflicts grow directly from the existence of lucrative oil deposits in the Delta and the federal government's control over them and domination of much of the rest of the economy. Because federal government officials control oil royalties and how they are distributed, they enjoy unique opportunities, both to divert a share of those funds to private ends through corrupt means and to allocate the part that remains. Astute allocation policies allow federal officials to keep much of the rest of the society dependent on the federal government for fiscal resources. The never-ending discussion about allocation of the federal cake reveals the power of this phenomenon.

There is an inevitable and serious conflict of interest between Delta communities that bear the environmental damage of oil extraction and the rest of the nation for which oil money is essentially a free good. Delta populations, clearly a minority, regularly lose these struggles. Had they some authority over environmental issues, many current problems might be more manageable. Lacking this, and given the federal government's control over all subsurface resources as well as "ownership" of all land, all Delta issues inevitably become national issues. The national government has failed to resolve these. In its campaign to "buy off" Delta discontent on the cheap, earlier administrations frequently corrupted Delta community leaders. There is a deep distrust in the Delta concerning the federal government and a feeling among local populations that most other Nigerians care little for their problems, so long as the oil flows. Delta populations constantly campaign for a larger share of the federal cake, most of which originates in their homelands (discussed further in the Economics section below).

As a result of these factors, and because oil companies did and do make tempting targets, many aggrieved youths in the Delta resort to direct action to extract compensation for their perceived losses. They invade oil company properties, take employees hostage, and shut down facilities. Oil companies typically negotiate release of captured personnel and properties with relative ease by paying the youths modest ransoms. This oil company strategy creates a "moral hazard": the willingness of companies to pay ransoms stimulates imitators of this lucrative "business," leading to sustained disruptions, at times to competition among youths, and to a general sense of anarchy in the Delta.

Another conflict closely linked to federal control over Delta oil and the economy in general is the intense competition for political office. For politicians, and for their communities, control of federal office opens the high road to resources that can be diverted from public to private or community control. Competition is naturally intense for federal political offices and has historically turned violent in the second election in each of Nigeria's two previous republics. In summary, federal control over oil and much of the rest of the economy tends to "federalize" many economic problems, particularly in the Delta, and stimulates intense efforts to gain and hold office throughout Nigeria.

D. D. Perceived Regional Power Disparities

Finally, the perception among southerners in Nigeria that they were "locked out" of federal power for 40 years underlies the attitudes many have toward the federal government. This is the case broadly in the South, despite the fact that southerners, especially Yoruba, have benefited greatly in economic terms because they were the group indigenous to Lagos, the country's commercial and economic center and, until recently, its political capital (Ibelema, 2000). Particularly among the Yoruba, there is a deep suspicion toward both the government and the ethnic group they felt was behind most of those years of rule: the Hausa-Fulani. This perception persists today, despite the Yoruba Chief Olusegun Obasanjo's now serving as GFRN president. At the time of the 1999 elections that launched Nigeria's Third Republic, many Yoruba considered Obasanjo as a "Trojan horse" for northern interests; indeed, very few voted for him.

Perhaps the most powerful grassroots organization in Nigeria, the Yoruba OPC, defines itself largely in terms of its resistance to excessive federal power and the perceived dominance of the Hausa-Fulani over the Yoruba through that medium. The OPC is a militant, ethnically based organization whose members will use violence if necessary in advancing organization goals.

At the same time, many northerners continue to believe in the need for a northernization policy instituted by northern political elites during the late colonial era to prevent southerners from dominating the northern economy. The anti-Igbo riots of 1953 and again in October 1966 following the July revenge coup drew very heavily on that sentiment. Currently, tensions between Yoruba and Hausa-Fulani have moved to center stage, but northern antagonism toward all southern economic operators targets them indiscriminately as members of the "southern" ethnic group. The sabon gari (Hausa: new town) neighborhoods established under Lord Lugard in many northern cities gave southerners a foothold in property rights in the north, but expanding those rights has provoked bitter resistance. Individuals at both elite and commoner levels in Hausa-Fulani society understand their vulnerability to Yoruba and Igbo commercial power. To resist it they are prepared to use a range of political tools-violence as well.

It is only in the context of these perceptions of power disparities and zero-sum competition that many "ricochet riots" can be understood. These occur when rumors of an incident somewhere in Nigeria opposing Hausa-Fulani and Yoruba stimulate reprisal violence among those same groups in another area of the country. Ricochet riots also pit other southern ethnic groups against northerners, with reprisals possible in either region for violence committed in the other.

Our focus on these four factors no doubt oversimplifies Nigerian realities to some extent. Nonetheless, their impact on Nigeria today appears clearly in fueling most of the conflicts Nigeria must now manage. Economic decline, severe inequalities in wealth, a reaction to corruption, and the Islamic heritage seem to explain much of the movement toward shari'a in the North. Some politicians undoubtedly made astute calculations ("opportunism") that, by championing an issue as popular as shari'a, they could consolidate and quite likely increase their personal political support. The Christian heritage in the South and southerners' fear of continued Hausa-Fulani domination in simply another guise (the increasingly questionable assumption that the northerners who financed President Obasanjo's campaign control policy through him) help explain the South's reaction to the application of shari'a criminal penalties. Christians in all parts of the country likewise oppose the northern strategy of moving Nigeria officially into the camp of Islamic countries.

The wealth and power accessible through government office explain intense conflict in pursuit of those offices. Federal control over the economic and ecological fate of the Delta, the decay of local institutions there, and the lucrative target the oil companies present all explain the general pattern of anarchy amidst economic decay that characterizes that region. Finally, southern, primarily Yoruba, fear of another iteration of northern/Hausa-Fulani dominance, in the midst of economic competition that often intensifies ethnic divisions, heightens volatility in such areas as Lagos and Kano. These two cities, the country's largest, have often erupted in ricochet riots.

Many of these problems cannot be easily undone. By understanding the roots of these problems, however, one can better develop interventions likely to have lasting benefits in the following:

Calming protagonists in violent conflicts;
Developing more effective, nonviolent approaches to dispute management and resolution; and
Addressing underlying economic sources of conflict through development and growth-oriented activities.

IX. III. POLICY ENVIRONMENT

Many potentially destabilizing conflicts in Nigeria have direct ties to national-level policy issues. Ultimately, these issues will have to be addressed if Nigerians are to develop stable democratic governance. The distribution of powers between the federal and state governments has evolved considerably since independence. At the moment, the federal government has the upper hand by virtue of its control over most of Nigeria's fiscal resources, derived from petroleum production in the Delta. How those resources are to be divided is a perennial question in Nigeria. In addition, the size of the federal cake induces constant political struggle for federal office, in which corruption plays a strong role. The vast majority of Nigerians who fail to obtain more than crumbs of federal resources feel marginalized. This, in turn, gives rise to a search for a more just political system, leading to violent confrontations between Muslims and Christians over the introduction of Islamic shari'a criminal law provisions in 11 northern states. The way the national police force provides or fails to provide security constitutes another source of conflict.

A. A. State-Federal Balance
Federalism in Nigeria was established under colonial rule. Since independence, Nigeria has gone through cycles of civilian and military rule, several of which resulted in the inauguration of new constitutions. Federalism has remained a constant through these cycles, but the relative balance of power between the federal government and state governments has varied markedly from regime to regime. Aspects of this debate relevant to conflict today include revenue allocation, religion and its degree of separation from government, and police and security.

 1. Economics

The debate over revenue allocation and resource control is politically charged for two reasons.  First, states depend almost entirely on federal revenue allocation for their budgets. Second, the government's failure to diversify the economy has left it dependent on a single export commodity concentrated in a small number of states. The revenue allocation question centers on the formula for dividing federally collected revenue among states. Relative weightings assigned to derivation of revenues (e.g., royalties on oil produced in the Delta states), populations of receiving states, some calculation of need, or own source revenue effort, materially affect the absolute amounts of the federal cake that each state receives. The question of resource control involves determining whether state resources include both on- and offshore resources. Naturally, the strongest voices arguing for larger percentage of revenue to be allocated on the basis of derivation and for state resource control are those of the South South, the core Delta states. People in the South South believe that although their region supplies the dominant source of Nigerian wealth, they bear all the costs of environmental degradation while enjoying few benefits from oil exploitation.

Current discussions over the proper formula for allocating revenue from the federal government to individual states continue a debate begun under colonial rule. Early revenue allocation formulas were based on the principle of derivation, which channeled from 50% to 100% of certain federally collected revenues back into the region of origin. This, combined with independent state authority to generate revenue, created relatively strong regions and a relatively weak center. Under the derivation principle, the rich got richer and the poor stayed poor.

Pressure to redistribute wealth grew as political competition among regions, and later states, intensified following independence. Nigerian officials revisited the revenue allocation formula several times in the following decades, reducing the weight accorded derivation at each rendition. New factors added to counterbalance derivation included need, population, and even progress. After the civil war, the federal government increased states' dependency on revenue allocations, thereby increasing competition for it, by cutting states' tax authority. Thus, South South states saw their allocation of oil wealth based on derivation shrink from 50% in the 1960s to 30%, then to 3%, before finally rising again to the current 13%.
At the same time that South South states have gotten smaller shares of oil revenue by derivation, other decisions threaten to shrink still further the amount of oil they can claim as derived from their jurisdictions. The Obasanjo administration is seeking Supreme Court clarification of states' rights to count offshore resources as part of their resource base. The current formula declares these resources to be federal, cutting the South South states' claim to oil revenue by almost half.

 2. Religion: Secular or theocratic systems at state level

Some 11 northern states, beginning with Zamfara on October 27, 1999, and including Sokoto, Kano, and Niger (USAID, 2000a: 2-3), have passed into law the criminal law sections of the Islamic shari'a code of conduct. The states concerned have advanced with varying speed toward application. Zamfara and Katsina, for example, are now applying the code, while other states have not. Included as part of the shari'a criminal code are the penalties for specific violations-for example, flogging for imbibing alcohol, removal of hands and then feet for recidivist thieves, and stoning in cases of proven adultery (the standard of proof for the last type of behavior is very high). Many northern politicians have supported the so-called shari'a movement through personal conviction, political opportunism, political realism, or a sense that they should represent the wishes of those who elected them.

This poses a constitutional problem because the Nigerian constitution guarantees a secular state, guarantees freedom of religion, and vests in states concurrent power to establish their own court systems. At both constitutional and practical levels, these guarantees are incompatible in light of the fact that Islam rejects separation of political from religious authority and proposes a unified theocratic system of governance.

The intervening two-and-a-half years since Zamfara's adoption of the code has produced a series of violent incidents, culminating in the February and May 2000 Kaduna riots in which a total of some 2,000 individuals died. Catholics conducted an anti-shari'a march through Muslim neighborhoods in Kaduna, which sparked the outbreak. Muslim youth reacted, violence ensued, and the city twice went up in flames. Kaduna State's current Executive Governor, E.H. Ahmed Makarfi, a Muslim, has managed to calm the situation in his jurisdiction through a series of astute political moves (see Appendix E). Elsewhere, however, the conflict persists over institutionalizing the shari'a code through state legislation. The Muslim Governor of Kogi State was quoted as recently as Saturday May 12, 2001, that he would never adopt the shari'a criminal code because it was "barbaric and unfit for any decent society" (Daily Times). In Kano, a group of youths led by the Deputy Governor, Abdullahi Ganduje, attacked a number of hotels and clubs on the night of Good Friday (April 13), destroying alcohol in accord with their interpretation of shari'a criminal law provisions that ban the drinking of alcohol. The following Monday night, youths, acting independently, reportedly again attacked and torched a number of hotels in the city (Adeyemo, 2000).

 3. Police and security

Nigerians frequently voice intense complaints about the National Police Force (NPF). Nearly everyone believes they are incompetent, corrupt, and involved in much of the crime that plagues Nigeria's large urban areas. Experts concur that the NPF is understaffed and that personnel are extremely poorly trained, poorly equipped, and very poorly paid. Given these facts, it is not surprising that police resort to frequent roadblocks and vehicle stops to collect dash from many citizens. Nor is it surprising that they are largely ineffective in investigating crimes or even in policing their areas.
The roots of these problems lie in the funding, staffing, training, and pay issues noted above, but also in what most respondents describe as an utterly failed formal judicial system, where "justice" is available to whoever pays the most.  They lie as well in the misuse of the police for political purposes and the obvious gross corruption of the 20 years of military rule.  As a result, professionalism, morale, and ethics have all collapsed in the NPF.

In this climate, crime has exploded. Area boys, armed robbers, and the like have taken over market areas and neighborhoods, while the police reportedly cower in their barracks, look the other way, or aid and abet. In response, militia-like vigilantes such as the Bakassi Boys (Okafor), the armed wing of the Yoruba OPC, and other local groups have "identified" those whom they believe to be robbers (with NPF members often among those identified), attacked them, and frequently executed them. Although such lynchings are greeted with much grassroots approbation, these acts add a significant increment of violence in an already violent society and reflect further erosion of an already weak state. These vigilante groups exercise the fundamental function of the state, the use of coercion, without the due process and checks of a functioning formal legal system (with predictable consequences; see Abayomi, 2001). Some actions by such groups have led to broader, ethnic-based confrontations and lethal violence.

Federal control over the police does not seem to have solved these problems. In the Southeast for instance, NPF are currently seeking to reestablish authority over the Bakassi Boys vigilantes (Okafor). Thus, a current hot political debate centers on whether some or all policing functions should be returned to the states. Regardless of how this debate is resolved, police must become more accountable to state authorities if local crime problems are to be addressed more effectively.

B. B. Corruption

Nigeria has, over the past four decades, earned a reputation for corruption on a grand scale. Modest requests for dash early in the country's history grew by leaps and bounds, with the exploitation of centrally controlled oil resources from the 1960s onward, into truly massive transfers of public funds from government coffers to private accounts. The military by no means started the system-allegations of corruption figured heavily in the first ("January") coup in 1966-but men such as Ibrahim Babangida and Sani Abacha certainly escalated the scale of corruption to astounding levels (Diamond, 1993).

Public monies are viewed as open access goods; anyone who fails to grab as much as he can as fast as he can is a fool, stupidly stinting himself and his relatives and friends so that others may benefit. This concept has become entrenched in Nigerian thinking about public affairs. A latter-day Hausa political adage-In na gwamnati ne, ba na kowa ba ("If it belongs to the Government, it belongs to no one")-encapsulates the idea that public funds are fair game for anyone who can capture them. The majority of office holders at all levels of public secular government seemingly prefer to risk jail for embezzlement of public funds entrusted to their care rather than risk opprobrium in their home areas for failing to enrich themselves and their communities during their time at the public trough.

Public and indigenous government officials similarly appropriate, or authorize illegal sale of, other public resources-for example, forest reserves (CAREFOR). Members of the public view Nigerian NPF officials, particularly beat officers, primarily as predators seeking illegal rents through abuse of their official powers. Some assert that police agents desiring a post with lucrative rent opportunities must share a portion of their corrupt earnings with the superiors who can name them to and remove them from such positions. These examples suggest how pervasive corruption has become in Nigerian daily life.

C. C. Elections

As noted above, the corruption dynamic has made public office the fast track to riches. The size of the prizes intensifies the heat of electoral contests, creating a fertile ground for violent conflict.

 1. Policy on political party recognition/numbers

Government preparations for the next round of elections are already behind schedule. A particularly contentious outstanding issue concerns the number of, and process by which, new political parties will be allowed to register. Preparation time for the 1999 election was quite short, and some Nigerian politicians apparently did not believe that the elections would actually happen. For these reasons, at least some who would normally have formed parties and competed for office did not participate. These potential candidates are now looking toward the 2002/2003 elections as their opportunity to reenter the political arena. If the government does not provide a means to register new political parties, in addition to the existing three,  greater infighting within the present parties may be expected, as those in office and those who would like to be in office struggle for nominations.

 2. INEC

The Independent Nigerian Electoral Commission (INEC) has a mandate to organize open, fair elections. In the 1999 elections, INEC played a useful role, but could have contributed considerably more than it did to protect Nigerian voters against manipulation of their ballots. INEC currently has a total of 10,000 employees, twice the number a seasoned observer believes would be required were those employees adequately paid.  In addition to 12 commissioners and supporting staff at the national level, INEC has a resident commissioner stationed in every state in the federation. What INEC lacks is a reliable presence at the local government area (LGA) level, where electoral tensions run high and potential for violence is substantial.

The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), USAID/Nigeria's implementing partner (IP) for electoral support, offered workshops during May 2001 for a selection of INEC employees in 14 states on the proper organization and conduct of elections. IFES has funds to finance additional workshops for election officials in the remaining 22 states. Those workshops are designed to set a standard of professional performance for Nigerian election officials and to train them on how to deal with election-related problems (media representatives, angry politicians, attempts at corruption, etc.). Given INEC pay scales and the incentives politicians have to win elections in order to get access to public funds, corruption remains a serious problem. This is perhaps an even greater danger in party primaries, which are subject to little if any scrutiny, than it is in general elections.

X. IV. GENERAL APPROACH TO CONFLICT MITIGATION

Staff of OTI and its implementing partner, Louis Berger Inc.,  have successfully employed a community intervention approach in their conflict management work. The goals of the approach are to calm current crises and establish enduring mechanisms for communities to address underlying sources of conflict and manage future conflict. The approach is extremely flexible and can be appropriately adapted to a myriad of conflict situations. The experiences of OTI's two years of activity confirm that this recommended general strategy for addressing conflict situations produces desirable results. The team considers it to be a useful starting point for conceptualizing USAID's follow-on CR activities.

A. A. Elements of the Approach

The participatory community intervention model comprises four iterative phases (see Figure 1):

1. Sensitization and training of stakeholders in the three highest priority geographic areas;
2. Facilitated stakeholder dialogue;
3. Development of understanding(s) among stakeholders; and
4. Monitoring implementation of understandings.

Implementing these phases entails collaboration between an IP and a local CR resource person, such as a Conflict Resolution Stakeholders' Network (CRESNET) member, or a local CR non-governmental organization (NGO); see Section VI, Figure 2. The intervention model begins with a preliminary assessment of the conflict to determine both its general nature and the principal stakeholders. Stakeholders may include traders, religious leaders, traditional leaders, organized youth, women, ethnic leaders, government officials, police, or business executives, depending on the conflict at hand. In the target states, this assessment is largely complete.

After stakeholders are identified and have expressed an interest in pursuing the process, appropriate sensitization and conflict management training activities are conducted. Such activities defuse the sense of crisis and provide stakeholders with the conflict management skills they will need to address the issues at hand. These must be designed to fit the particular situation on the ground-the nature of the conflict, its sensitivity, and the degree of tension. In highly volatile situations, sensitization may be done by using multiple channels to spread messages of peacebuilding (e.g., via print media, radio and television programs, religious leaders, traditional leaders, youth groups, and public officials). Training of stakeholders in the dynamics of conflicts and conflict management may be done separately or jointly, concurrently or sequentially.

Once stakeholders have some knowledge of conflict management techniques and are willing to discuss current conflict issues, a forum for dialogue is established. The goal of such forums is to provide a safe space for stakeholders to meet and discuss the conflict issues opposing them so that they can begin to reach mutual understandings. Again, such forums should be designed to fit the unique nature of the conflict situation at hand. It is frequently helpful to have initial dialogues facilitated by a neutral party acceptable to all members, though this may not be necessary in all cases. Dialogue forums can take many forms: meetings between/among leaders of key stakeholder groups, call-in radio programs focused on conflict issues, interfaith dialogues, community-police dialogues, community problem-solving workshops, or town hall meetings.

Through dialogue forums, stakeholders can develop mutual understandings that address current conflict issues. These may be formal or informal, written or unwritten. Their scope may be limited to the current conflict issues, or may establish institutional mechanisms, such as a peace committee or consultative forums, to manage new issues as they arise. Whatever their nature, understandings generally entail some observable change in behavior on the part of one or more stakeholders intended to address the conflictual issues at hand.

Once understandings are reached, their implementation must be monitored. This can take many forms, depending on the stakeholders and nature of the understanding. It may be done informally by community members or may entail additional formal activities. Potential monitoring activities include publishing a plan of action and setting implementation benchmarks, convening regular forums to review implementation progress, and inviting a third party to evaluate implementation efforts.

Naturally, conflict management processes can take a long time to develop-if the issues and sources of conflict were easy to surmount, violent conflict would not have erupted. Stakeholders may encounter difficulties at any phase in the process, especially when conflict issues and sources are deep-rooted and require participation of stakeholders at local, state, and national levels for their solution. Advocacy or lobbying by one stakeholder group, such as a youth organization, may be needed to engage another group, such as government officials, police, or business leaders, in the process. Facilitation, mediation, or technical assistance may be required to develop realistic, sustainable understandings, particularly when underlying economic, political processes, or security issues are being undertaken. In most situations, the entire process will be repeated several times as groups address successive sources of conflict in their communities.

Translating this general approach into a specific strategy is discussed in Section VI.

B. B. OTI's Experience with This Approach

OTI has utilized this general approach increasingly in its CR work in Nigeria. Whether the conflict involved, for example, land tenure, competition over economic opportunities, struggles between youth in rural communities, or religious confrontations, OTI and CRESNET CR practitioners have first sought to sensitize specific groups of stakeholders involved in a conflict and provide them with basic CR concepts. The next step has been to bring together the parties that have engaged in violent conflict in a facilitated dialogue that has often legitimized establishment of a peace and reconciliation committee. In most cases, the peace committees have tried to reach agreements on which stakeholders could rely. Joint monitoring committees have been created in some instances. The overall result of this approach has been mostly positive. Resolving structural problems underlying a given conflict has proven to be especially challenging.

XI. V. FINDINGS/LESSONS LEARNED

Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, presents a series of contrasts that materially affect the myriad sources of conflict, conflict dynamics, and opportunities for conflict management. Regional differences in indigenous governance structures, self-governing capacities, and quality of civil society and community-based organizations result in markedly different local environments. The diversity that exists within the two major religions creates unique opportunities for mitigating religious and other conflicts. Not surprisingly, these factors combine to engender regional differences in conflict dynamics.

In this highly complex conflict environment, multiple institutions for promoting more effective CR and peacebuilding exist. Among these are a CR network, organized by Nigerians with strong support from OTI/Nigeria, two universities, and various government and donor initiatives. Among these, CRESNET and the universities could together contribute significantly to building peace over the next two years.

Naturally, no one donor can hope to materially mitigate all conflicts in Nigeria over two years. Analyzing conflicts in terms of their probable capacity to destabilize Nigeria's transition to democracy and civilian rule, as well as in terms of the feasibility of constructive donor intervention, can help identify priorities.

A. A. Nigerian Institutions Affecting Conflict

 1. Marked variation in governance structures

Regional differences in governance structures and practices were recognized and much commented on in colonial Nigeria. Hierarchy and norms of deference and obedience characterized indigenous institutions in the North. Igbo "stateless" societies in the East, where community groups self-governed and neither village headmen nor paramount chiefs existed, constituted a quite different set of institutional arrangements for dealing with public problems. In the West, Yoruba chiefs did play lead roles, but were strongly supported and partially checked by organized groups within the society. These differences, partially transformed by an eventful century of colonial and independent rule, persist today.

North. Less broadly recognized are the very significant intraregional differences found today in the character of indigenous institutions, as well as in political processes both in that context and in the comparatively new context of secular government within local government areas and states. In the Northwest, core of the old North, some emirates-for example, Sokoto, Katsina, and Kano-retain much of their old authority. Others, such as Zazzau, have recently lost control over areas they formerly claimed, and their authority may be waning. By contrast, minority groups in southern Kaduna State such as the Byagyi, have, as part of the same recent events, gained recognition as new "indigenous" governments. Still others-for example, the newly minted Emirate of Dutse (1990)-may lack, at least at the emirate level, the authority associated with governance structures in the original seven Hausa states (Daura, Kano, Rano, Gobir, Biram [Sokoto], Zamfara, and Zazzau [Zaria]).

Similarly, elected officials at the local government and state levels within the North's 19 states opt for quite different strategies in the face of common problems (e.g., the issue of establishing shari'a law provisions as the criminal code at the state level).

Southwest. Chiefs exist and continue to play important roles in the society, but they do not influence politics to the extent that some northern emirate leaders do.

South South. The multiplicity of ethnic groups in the South South is reflected in myriad traditional governance structures. The integrity and relative influence of traditional leaders differ from group to group and community to community.

 2. Substantial differences in CBOs/CSOs

Community-based organizations (CBOs), such as families, resource user groups, cultural units, and community self-help societies, and civil society organizations (CSOs) (e.g., Muslim sects, churches, human rights organizations, local trade and professional associations) vary dramatically in sophistication, experience, and capacity. Despite significant exceptions, both types of organizations are more developed in the South than in the North, where indigenous governance structures have remained generally more effective and constitute less of an enabling environment for self-governing practices.

 3. Religious differences: Intra-Islamic and intra-Christian variations

Nigeria's two major religions, Islam and Christianity, are sometimes depicted as monolithic entities that confront each other in pitched battles, with formal implementation of the criminal aspects of the Muslim shari'a legal code (or the likelihood of implementation) providing the spark that touches off violence. Riots based (at least ostensibly) on religious affiliation and religious policies have indeed occurred, the worst such being the two confrontations that took place in Kaduna between February and May 2000.

Such descriptions, however, can be misleading. Within the Christian community one finds a broad range of churches spanning the gamut from the mainstream Roman Catholic and Anglican to many smaller Protestant organizations. These latter include many Pentecostal denominations that tend to be quite aggressive in their proselytizing. Although each Christian church retains its autonomy of thought and action, all belong to the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN). CAN has a chapter in each state in the federation. The CAN leader in each state plays a lead role in relationships with Muslim counterparts and with elected state and local government officials. Interviews with three different CAN leaders reveal significant state-to-state variations in Christian/Muslim relationships.

In part this reflects differing agendas of elected political leaders in northern states. Governor Ahmed Sani of Zamfara State, which first introduced and applied the criminal provisions of the shari'a code, has realized considerable political advantage from his support for shari'a. The local population strongly supports application of shari'a and the governor who made it possible. By contrast, Kaduna State Governor E.H. Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi has deliberately and successfully sought to restrict application of shari'a civil and criminal provisions to Muslim populations of the state. In Kano, the elected state leadership appears split over the advisability of applying shari'a provisions.

Underlying these different public political agendas are significant variations in the character of local Muslim populations. Although most Muslims in Nigeria's North follow orthodox Sunni Islam and the Maliki school of shari'a jurisprudence,  Shiite Islam, in its Iranian variant, has attracted some adepts. These include the Shiite leader, Sheikh El Zakzaky, who initially opposed applying shari'a in Kano because he argued that the underlying socioeconomic conditions necessary for its proper application were not present. Both Zakzaky and another Shiite leader, Abubakar Mujahid, promote a thorough Islamic revolution to reclaim society for the Muslim faithful (Maier, 2000: 168-181).

The Sunni group comprises several sects. In Katsina city, for instance, five are represented: Qadriyya, Tijani, Tarika, Shia, and Izala. Some of these have political programs that focus heavily on shari'a at the moment. The Izala attract bright, young, educated individuals who are strongly committed to Islam and to the application of the shari'a criminal code. As Shia sect members follow Shiite teachings,  local indigenous political leaders view them as radical and believe they are committed to the overthrow of existing government.  Other sects-the Qadriyya, Tijani, and Ahamadiyya, for instance-seem less committed on the political front and more centered on the practice of Islam as a nonmilitant doctrine.

Despite these differences, Muslims in Nigeria's North can act together in a disciplined manner when they consider it politically necessary. But groups and leaders in each state also pursue their own agendas, including relationships with Christians. In some traditional chieftaincies (e.g., Katsina and Gumel), relationships between Muslim political and religious leaders and Christians appear better than in others.  Some Muslim and Christian leaders have sought to engage in peaceful dialogue, and there would appear to be real opportunities in this area that should be exploited.

 4. Regional variations in sources, issues, and dynamics of conflict

Mosaic may be a misleading word to describe the character of conflicts in Nigeria. They occur almost everywhere, often in bewildering variety, but underlying this surface confusion are certain regionally specific patterns. Most notable among these are the following:

Environmental, distributional, and developmental conflicts associated with production of oil in the Delta (South South Region) (Maier, 2000: 75-110);
Religious conflicts in the North (Northwest, North Central, and Northeast regions) that pit proponents of Islam, Christianity, and animist religions against each other (Boer, 2000: Appendix 1);
Farmer-herder conflicts in the South (OTI/Nigeria, 2001: 7-8), as well as in northern, tse-tse fly-free areas where agricultural encroachment on former pasture reserves and cattle tracks, uncontrolled by local government authorities, generates sometimes deadly conflicts when pastoralists in search of forage put their cows into other people's still unharvested corn;
Land disputes among indigenes and settlers, sometimes of the same ethnic group, in the Southwest (ibid.: 4-7) and Middlebelt (Maier, 2000: 198-208); and
Election-related violence in southern regions of the country (see Item 2, below).

Other types of conflict-for example, battles over ethnic dominance of economic opportunities, struggles over land tenure rights that pit first settlers (indigenes) against those who arrive later (settlers), conflicts between indigenous and secular governance structures, youth- and police-related disputes-occur more generally throughout the country (Boer, 2000: including appendices).

North. The struggles within northern states over application of the criminal aspects of the shari'a code currently occupy center stage. These are often linked with confrontations over economic issues that pit Hausa-Fulani indigenes against southern settler "ethnic" entrepreneurs who began moving into the old Northern Region during the colonial era. Competition for renewable resources, notably pastures, forests, and fisheries, also produces violent conflicts.

Southwest. Conflict in the Southwest at its heart grows from the competition for scarce resources that, at times, appears organized along ethnic lines. Underlying this contemporary economic competition is a pervasive sense among Yoruba that they have consistently been turned away from political power by the Hausa-Fulani, as well as the keen awareness of Hausa-Fulani living in the Southwest of their repeated victimization by mob violence in the recent past. In these conflicts, religious identification is "trumped" by ethnicity, as Yoruba Muslims and Hausa Christians find themselves indiscriminately targeted by members of the other ethnic group, regardless of the religions they share.

Many seemingly minor conflicts can set off large-scale violence. Issues such as allocation of market stalls, control of the Lagos slaughterhouse, taxes levied on vehicles registered elsewhere, OPC activities, and perceived slights to religious or community holidays can trigger such violence. A ricochet riot effect between Lagos and northern cities, frequently Kano, spreads violence from one area to another. The OPC's robust organization adds both a risk and an opportunity in this area, as this Yoruba group can mobilize many members, whether to spread violence or to calm communities.

South South. Conflict in the South South (Delta) reflects years of economic neglect and decline. These factors are compounded by ongoing local disputes over land, fishing rights, and traditional rulers' authority; by local political fragmentation; and the decline of traditional community leaders. In addition, oil company operations present tempting targets. Violence among unemployed youths who have no legitimate economic prospects is on the rise. These disaffected, violent youths are enabled by, take advantage of, and make more severe all of these conditions.

Southeast. The team was unable to visit the Southeast. Potential for conflict in this region remains high, as demonstrated by the massacre of Hausa-Fulani in Aba that followed the killing of Igbos in Kaduna during the February and May 2000 fighting between Muslims and Christians in the latter city. In the aftermath, northerners left the South and southerners the North to return, at least temporarily, to their home bases (Ibelema, 2000: 211). Although Igbo have long since returned to the North, which they left en masse in the fall of 1966 when thousands were massacred in Kano before the outbreak of the Biafran war, memories of those events remain. Southeasterners have recently threatened tit-for-tat killings if Igbo are attacked in the North.

 5. Elections 2002/2003: Potential dynamics and regional issues

Although it is not possible to predict the level and nature of violence that upcoming elections might incite, early signs indicate competition will be fierce. Regional variations can be projected based on the degree of political competition in a given state, the level of political and community organization, and the history of violence in past elections.

In the South South, both inter- and intraparty violence can be expected. The breakdown of social and governance institutions in the region creates open political space, within which anyone with enough financial resources can purchase an office by buying votes or hiring touts to manipulate the electoral process. No local authorities exist who can shape the nomination process. Many political figures who lost their posts at the last election are looking to these next elections as an opportunity to return to office. Current office holders have allegedly begun to amass their war chests. Use of touts for intimidation, buying of votes, and other electoral misconduct is anticipated. We believe that the incidence of violence will be greater if new political parties are not allowed to register, intensifying the struggle for party nominations by restricting the number of candidates who may run.

In the Southwest, the likelihood of intraparty violence is significantly lower than that of interparty violence. Yoruba ethnic leaders, the Afenifere, still tightly control nominations for the dominant political party, the Alliance for Democracy (AD). At present, there is no group challenging the Afenifere's prerogative. In contrast, interparty competition between President Obasanjo's People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the AD for control of key Southwest states, particularly Lagos, will be heated. Again, use of touts for intimidation, buying of votes, and other misconduct are anticipated.

In the North, election violence has posed less of a problem in the past. People have certainly manipulated the electoral process in both primary and general elections, but the tools of choice in such operations have been either reliance on traditional authorities to direct voters or vote buying more frequently than violence. Persons interviewed did not consider election violence a major threat in the 2002 and 2003 elections in the North.

 6. Ricochet riots effect: Locally violent clashes incite lethal violence elsewhere

Nigeria has long suffered from a pattern of ethnic reprisals that often follow in completely different parts of the country after a localized confrontation between two ethnic groups. Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, and Yoruba have taken lead roles as classic ethnic protagonists in Nigeria, fighting each other repeatedly since the founding of the federation.  The typical ricochet riot scenario plays out as follows. Members of ethnic group 1 commit violence against those of ethnic group 2, who have settled in the home area of group 1. When news (and sometimes the wounded and bodies of the slain) arrive in the group 2's home area, leaders and followers often exact vengeance on members of group 1 who have settled in group 2's territory, even though the latter will usually have had nothing whatsoever to do with the original incident of violence. Any number of causes (e.g., economic competition, religious values, control over governance institutions) can trigger the initial dispute between groups 1 and 2. But in the second round of violence, here termed ricochet riots, conflicts proceed on another basis, that of the blood feud writ large across whole ethnic groups rather than individual warring families or other smaller social units.

 7. Media and violence

Media, and the information (or misinformation) they purvey, can play powerful roles in fomenting or discouraging violence. The misinformation in inflammatory rumors can provoke senseless casualties. Timely, accurate reporting can have the opposite effect. Unfortunately, Nigerian media are largely polarized along ethnic lines. Yoruba dominate most of the print media, much of which originate in the Southwest. English language literacy rates are high throughout the South and considerably lower in the North, so the major audience for print media tends to be southerners. Informed observers note that a fair number of articles play to the southern bias-for example, in the contemporary dispute over the application of shari'a criminal law provisions. Some observers assert that editors frequently sensationalize objective stories filed by reporters to sell more copies.

Those papers and reviews are disseminated nationally, however, and many northerners read them. The more sensationalist, or biased, reports and editorials probably induce among English-literate northerners a sense that their views are either not represented or are deliberately misrepresented.

In the North, by contrast, much information about current events circulates through the electronic media. Non-English-literate Hausa-Fulani rely heavily on electronic media for their information.  These originate from both domestic and international sources. The states control domestic electronic media. Northern radio and television stations incorporate a strong Muslim, northern bias in their programming. Christians rarely if ever get air time. The major external sources of Hausa-language programming are the Hausa sections of the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) and the Voice of America (VOA). Staff in those sections are drawn largely from Northern Nigeria, which may introduce some bias into their programming. Radio Deutsche Welle also provides some Hausa programming. Neither the BBC nor the VOA produces programming in Yoruba or Ibo.

Hausa-Fulani follow news from available electronic sources, as many southerners do from print media. In terms of exposure to electronic programming or English-language news, both groups are reasonably well informed. But the quality of editing, if not reporting, may be questionable in many cases, and exposure to different (i.e., opposing) viewpoints seems limited in both cases. This tends to generate a negative dynamic of misinformation that, over time, exacerbates disputes rather than aiding in their reasoned resolution.

B. B. Nigerian Organizations for Conflict Mitigation/Peacebuilding

Although conflict issues in Nigeria are thorny, incipient capacity to intervene constructively does exist. The OTI-supported CRESNET provides training and skills development for conflict professionals. Universities in Ibadan and Jos are embarking on graduate programs in CR. Finally, state, federal, and other donors have launched their own initiatives in this area.

 1. CRESNET

In less than a year and a half, OTI has achieved significant results in supporting interventions in community conflicts and in building the capacity of individuals and organizations to carry out such interventions. In addition, OTI has been responsible for planting the seeds for a culture of peace throughout Nigeria, through support to intercommunal dialogues and through social marketing activities. Potentially the longest lasting of OTI's contributions, however, may be its support of an initiative, conceived by participants in an OTI-sponsored Stakeholders Conference held in Badagry, Lagos State, in February 2000, to establish a CR practitioners network. Thirty-six individuals from CSOs and CBOs, with experience in CR, representing all six of Nigeria's geopolitical zones, attended the conference.

They formed CRESNET, a national professional membership association of individuals from the six zones. Following the Stakeholders' Conference, OTI developed a training manual appropriate to the Nigerian context. In March 2000, a Training of Trainers (TOT) workshop was held in Port Harcourt that again included representatives from the six zones. There, OTI expatriate specialists schooled 30 master trainers in basic CR and participatory training skills. The latter, supported by the OTI trainers, subsequently conducted a series of six zonal TOTs, between March and June 2000, working with a total of 200 individuals from CSOs and CBOs.

CRESNET now constitutes the only nationwide civil society network in the country devoted to peacebuilding and CR. The British Council tried earlier to establish such a network, which reportedly functioned for a year, but collapsed when the British Council ceased supporting it. After a highly contested start, CRESNET has evolved into its present structure of a national network of conflict intervenors who can, purportedly, be mobilized to address community conflicts anywhere in the country at anytime. The constitution was revised in April 2001. CRESNET's national board remained and has served as a basis for the zonal structures and elections at that level. These took place in May 2001 and produced a 15-member national board and six sets of regional officers. The organization officially registered in March 2001 with the national government as a private organization. This has enabled CRESNET to open a bank account and achieve credibility as an association whose members can offer training and intervene with governmental bodies.

At present, membership is open to individuals, not organizations. Membership dues have been established at 5,000 naira per individual, or slightly more than $40 at the current rate of $1 US = 120 naira. CRESNET offers training to members in return for members committing to training others on behalf of CRESNET. A membership drive is currently underway in the six zones that promises to increase dues-paying members from the current, approximately 100 individuals to an estimated 300-500. CRESNET charges dues for several reasons, including the benefits CR practitioners acquire through membership, such as the following opportunities:

To network with other individuals and organizations involved in peacebuilding and CR;
To enhance CR and peace building skills through CRESNET training;
To gain practical experience with CR skills to use in conflict settings;
To provide a return on CRESNET's training investment in its members by training others; and
To address the issues of NGO credibility through membership in CRESNET.

By applying CR practices such as mediation and facilitation, individuals and organizations associated with CRESNET have successfully addressed outbreaks of violence in various locations through the country. CRESNET trainers have worked with some collective associations at the community level; these have been primarily religious groups. They have also established mechanisms, such as peace committees, for the prevention of further violence. These have been well documented in a report prepared for OTI in December 2000 (Boer, 2000).

CRESNET has promoted a participatory approach to training in its TOT workshops. Participatory training approaches increase learning, especially in a practice-oriented field such as CR. They build on participants' knowledge and experience, encourage them to identify and develop their own solutions to problems they face in CR, and enhance the likelihood that participants will both take ownership of the techniques they have learned and apply them in subsequent actions.

This approach appears better adapted to the communications and group process styles of the cultures of some ethnic groups in Nigeria, such as Yoruba and Igbo, and more alien to those of other groups, such as Hausa-Fulani.   It is also more in keeping with the communications styles of some individuals than others. Nevertheless, it is a critical one in a context in which neither traditional leaders nor elected officials can be counted on to represent their constituents. CRESNET has had some success in transferring this approach.

The curriculum covered in the training manual and the accompanying facilitators' manual is elementary, but does cover some basic theories and practices in the fields of peacebuilding and CR. These include communications skills such as active listening and anger management, CR practices, (e.g., problem-solving, negotiation, mediation, and facilitation skills), and introductions to some of the theoretical underpinnings of these practices, including basic needs and reconciliation theories.

The greatest contributions thus far by individuals and organizations associated with CRESNET are those addressing underlying sources of conflict. An example is OTI-sponsored workshops CR training and policy dialogues with policy makers at different levels. Trainers devote the first half of these workshops to CR skills, and focus the second half through facilitated dialogues on policy issues with potential to generate conflict. An assessment team witnessed part of such a training/dialogue workshop in Kano, involving high-level Kaduna State and local government officials. The workshop modeled participatory approaches to training and discussion around issues related to ethnic and religious conflicts.

Despite this progress, CRESNET's status as an organization remains fragile. It depends for its survival almost wholly on the knowledge, experience, energy, and commitment of a small number of individuals. Like most CSOs in Nigeria, CRESNET overrepresents the Southwest on its national board and in its membership. Nevertheless, the six zonal offices offer an avenue to rectify this situation. Unless the organization provides tangible benefits to its members in the near future, they may well allow their memberships to lapse. At present, continuation of the TOTs seems wholly dependent on donor funding. There appears to be considerable demand for the types of services that individual CRESNET members and associated organizations are able to provide. Whether potential clients will pay for some or all of those services, however, remains to be seen.

 2. Other organizational resources in Nigeria relevant to conflict mitigation/peacebuilding-universities

Nigerian universities can contribute materially to CR, advocacy, and development efforts in Nigeria through research on conflicts and CR efforts and through training CR practitioners at various levels. The universities of Ibadan and Jos have both initiated CR programs. Ibadan's has achieved critical mass and several sources of support; Jos's operation is still in the exploratory stages. The latter program could, however, grow into a significant provider of CR research and training. Other universities might also contribute in this regard. A number could play the role, as Ibadan and Jos undoubtedly will, of CR centers within Nigeria's six geopolitical zones. Over time, university staff should be able to document and analyze both conflicts and CR procedures. This information can be passed on to peacebuilding practitioners to enable them to increase gradually the number of tested, effective CR, advocacy, and development tools they can offer clients.

 3. Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies (CEPACS)-University of Ibadan

In 1996 the British High Commission initiated and founded a "Link" program between the University of Ulster, Northern Ireland, and Ibadan faculty working on diverse conflict issues in Africa. In January 1999, the Ibadan faculties formally joined together in the "Peace and Studies Group" and have just recently organized themselves as CEPACS. This unit draws on a broad range of disciplines, including political science, sociology, law, history, economics, geography, psychology, adult education, and anthropology. CEPACS members focus on:

Research into the causes, patterns, and dynamics of conflict in Nigeria and in Africa in general;
Education at the master's level;
Training of CR trainers;
Applied consultation;
Publications; and
Conferences and information dissemination.

The program addresses five focus areas: (1) managing ethnic and social conflict; (2) traditional African CR practices; (3) environmental scarcity and resource-related conflict; (4) women and children in war and peace; and (5) peacekeeping/making/and building. The first three conflict areas have clear and immediate relevance to the activities proposed here, and should, over time, build the knowledge base and analytical capacities of conflict mitigation personnel. Their current work particularly emphasizes indigene-settler questions, and includes studies centering on proposed priority areas of Kaduna and in the Southwest.

CEPACS's TOT, conferencing, and information dissemination capacities could contribute a critical bridge in linking practitioners to current developments in CR theory and complement activities proposed below in Section VI.

Several CEPACS faculty members have built international reputations as authorities in their fields. They have produced excellent work and, partly in consequence, are well networked with other leading African and international personnel active in these areas.

 4. Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution-University of Jos

In the 1980s and early 1990s, Jos professors trained some diplomats for the External Affairs Ministry as students in the University's master's level International Relations and Strategic Studies Programme. Jos staff also teach at the National War College and at the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS).

A multidisciplinary committee of Jos faculty members is currently exploring possibilities of organizing a Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution (CPCR). They have established contacts with Bradford University in England, and also with the University of Geneva. The Department for International Development (DFID) is funding the Bradford connection; the British Council currently administers those funds.

University of Jos faculty already have links with CRESNET member organizations. One of the Committee's goals is to provide students with opportunities to gain experience with CR practice by placing them as interns with CRESNET member organizations. One of the committee's long-term goals is to organize a master's program in CR. If and when this occurs, placements with CRESNET members can provide students with opportunities to conduct action research for their master's theses. As a university unit, CPCR can be involved in CR initiatives in the long term, in ways that CSOs cannot. Because of the multidisciplinary backgrounds of its faculty, CPCR can contribute not only to the initial "fire-fighting" phase of conflicts, but also to the subsequent reconciliation and reconstruction phases.

The University Linkage Committee has been overseeing these efforts. Committee members indicate they intend to start small and expand into professional training as a priority focus. They expressed interest in exploring additional support for the program both from USAID and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).

 5. Potential CRESNET-university linkages

CRESNET, universities, and other CSOs could collaborate and cooperate in a variety of ways that would strengthen the linkages between theory, research, and practice, enhancing the usefulness, effectiveness, and impact of each. Examples include:

Provide documentation, publication, and dissemination of case studies, best practices, and lessons learned;
Provide resource persons to training, facilitation, and problem-solving workshops, and dialogues, particularly in cases in which CR technical information is required;
Carry out systematic research on specific questions and problems identified by practitioners;
Provide more rigorous and in-depth training to CR trainers, practitioners, and policy makers;
Publish a joint newsletter with information about developments in CR theory, research, and practice;
Disseminate a joint electronic newsletter with the same information described above, as well as discussion groups around issues of importance pertaining to CR theory and practice;
Organize an annual conference to bring together researchers, policy makers, and practitioners from the CR field to share best practices and lessons learned; and
Use university personnel to conduct assessments and evaluations for CSOs' CR and peacebuilding programs and interventions.

 6. Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution

The Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR) is the research arm of the Ministry of Co-operation and Integration in Africa and the National Peace Commission, based in the Presidency. It was initially established to conduct research related to peace, conflict prevention, management, and resolution throughout Africa, particularly relating to those conflicts to which Nigeria has provided peacekeeping soldiers and/or has contributed to peacemaking initiatives, such as in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The mandate of the IPCR was recently expanded to include research relating to conflicts within Nigeria. However, GFRN funding for research pertaining to conflict in Nigeria will not be forthcoming until 2002.

The IPCR recognizes the roles in ensuring sustainable peace of democratization, development, and the establishment of viable institutions that can guarantee general security, the satisfaction of basic needs, the rule of law, and human rights. The IPCR comprises four departments: Research and Policy Analysis, Defense and Security Studies, Conflict Prevention and Resolution, and Democracy and Development. The research staff comprise individuals with expertise in a variety of social science disciplines, including security studies, international relations, political science, and economics. However, they lack an individual(s) with specific peace and conflict studies expertise. Research staff expressed an interest in enhancing their skills in these fields.

The Nigerian government subsidizes IPCR operations, but the Institute is expected to supplement its funding with donations from public and private donors. It has a library, a computer center, and a conference hall. One of the IPCR's long-term goals is to establish and operate a conflict early warning system for Nigeria. The initial phase would entail producing a "map" of all conflicts in the country that would include information such as the sources of and salient issues of each conflict, and its current status and intensity. The IPCR envisions working in collaboration with an organization such as CRESNET, which has a network of contacts throughout the country, as an integral component of a conflict early warning system.

 7. Lagos State

The conflict mediation program organized by the Ministry of Justice of Lagos State illustrates the potential for creative problem-solving by Nigeria's states in CR. Using specially trained lawyers as mediators in civil disputes, this program has resolved more than 5,000 disputes in its 13-month existence. These typically involve such issues as employer-employee disputes, landlord-tenant problems, and domestic disputes. Parties voluntarily bring their disputes to the program, where staff handle them informally and without attorneys. Those who avail themselves of these services are primarily poor people. Disputes are generally resolved. This is an example of how civil and democratic politics have begun to regenerate the conflict-management institutions typical of well-functioning democracies.

 8. Donors: DFID/UNDP/UN Foundation/oil companies

The British have a long-standing interest in abating conflict in Nigeria. The British High Commission and DFID anticipate receiving significant funding from the new British Africa-wide Conflict Reduction Fund ($75 million/year from 2002-2004, in addition to larger annual amounts for peacekeeping, 2001-2003). If so, they will be positioned to play a strong role in the country.

DFID have selected four Nigerian states-Jigawa, Benue, Ekiti, and a fourth state in the Southeast-as their priority geographic areas of intervention. They are supporting local government strengthening, and so could contribute insights on that element of the development equation.

UNDP funding levels will be smaller than those British assistance appears set to mobilize, yet UNDP staff can play a useful role in a variety of governance areas. UNDP has already received commissioned papers from Nigerian specialists in 13 distinct governance areas, but will rely on USAID/OTI's CR assessment in structuring their approach to the last area. A solid basis for USAID/UNDP cooperation thus exists and should be nurtured.

The UN Foundation may provide funding for a UNDP conflict management program, and possibly for CEPACS at University of Ibadan. The UN Foundation representative expressed the hope that USAID would collaborate with UNDP in this effort.

Comments here are representative of the oil companies, though they reflect primarily Shell Oil's current conflict mitigation strategy in the Delta. Shell emphasizes sustained community development partnerships with local stakeholders, where Shell Petroleum Development Corporation (SPDC) and community leaders identify priority local needs and develop plans to address them. Crucial in this strategy is the willingness of communities to take "ownership" of the project and participate in sustaining it.

Rather than responding to ad hoc extortion by Delta youths, which seems to lead only to more of the same and has little if any community development impact, Shell now seeks to reward community-wide planning and cooperation in clearly developmental activities. However, senior company personnel interviewed note that this will reach only a few communities in the Delta, and far more broadly based and funded initiatives are necessary to even begin to "dent" the poverty, institutional fragmentation and decay, and low-grade conflict and violence typical of the area. They also note that they are having mixed success in effectively getting communities to perform their "partnership" functions.

Oil companies' activities thus could provide "breathing room" until the Delta States and the Nigeria Delta Development Corporation (NDDC) can begin applying their resources to solving environmental and development problems in the area.

C. C. Prioritizing Conflicts in Nigeria by Potential for Destabilizing Civilian Governance

Proposing a strategy for further work on CR in Nigeria over the next two years requires narrowing the focus of effort. The types and geographic range of conflict in Nigeria are sufficiently large to make focusing USAID/Nigeria's effort imperative. The team thus proposes the following approach to prioritizing conflicts.

 1. Criteria for selecting conflict
   intervention targets

Destabilizing effect seriously impeding Nigeria's transition to democracy;
Economic impact at national level sufficiently negative to impede functioning of Nigerian democracy;
Conflicts that can incite ricochet riots; and
Feasibility of generating impact within two years.

Of these four criteria, the first can be seen as a general category: whatever the source of violence, the violence itself must be sufficiently great that it could derail the current transition to democratic civilian governance (e.g., by inciting a secessionist movement or creating an opening for another military takeover).

Conflicts that meet the second or third criterion, the team believes, have the potential to derail democratic civilian rule and therefore merit serious consideration. The fourth criterion, finally, reflects the constraints of USAID/Nigeria's programming arrangements. The team believes that any AID-sponsored intervention aimed at mitigating violence or building peace should be able to demonstrate measurable progress within two years. The team does not, however, expect that any funded intervention should completely resolve within two years the conflict it is designed to address. Indeed, given the deep-seated nature and complex causes of many of Nigeria's current conflicts, it would be unrealistic to assume that the more serious ones can be transformed into sustainable efforts at peacebuilding within so short a time. Rather, the team believes it is imperative for USAID/Nigeria to build rapidly on OTI/Nigeria's conflict mitigation initiatives and push them forward with the goal of achieving sustainable solutions over the longer term (5-20 years, depending on the situation).

 2. Conflict types

Religious conflict (Muslim/Christian). Religious conflicts constitute a serious cause of violence in Nigeria and have for a number of years.  Much of this violence has occurred in the North, although anti-Muslim incidents often occur in the South as well. Low-level incidents seem more or less a constant of daily life, and more or less manageable at that level; but when they escalate, the costs in lives, property, and political and economic stability can be devastating. This latter kind of violence can touch off ricochet riots in other parts of the country (e.g., in Aba after the two Kaduna religious riots during the first five months of 2000).

Northern Muslims' support for application of criminal aspects of the shari'a legal code appears motivated by lack of economic development, disparities of wealth between rich and poor, and relative insecurity, as well as forms of behavior (drinking, prostitution, etc.) stigmatized by their faith. Religious and political leaders have seen in the shari'a movement a vehicle to advance moral or personal agendas. The issue of shari'a has taken on real economic significance for southern Christian entrepreneur settlers in the North who often operate restaurants, hotels, and bars where drinking and prostitution occur. Under these circumstances, potential for violence remains high.

OTI/Nigeria has demonstrated repeatedly, however, that representatives of both religious groups enthusiastically welcome timely interventions to provide CR training and establish peacebuilding institutions (Boer, 2000: 23-26). Much has been accomplished in the past two years, principally through TOTs organized by CRESNET members. Many participants report having had occasion to use their new knowledge almost immediately, sometimes in stemming religious riots. CRESNET members and other peacebuilders could very likely accomplish considerably more by intensifying their work with religious leaders and communities.

Ethnic politico-economic conflict-Kano and Lagos (Hausa/Fulani vs. Yoruba). Conflicts spurred by competition over economic opportunities have been part and parcel of life for more than 150 years in the area now known as Nigeria (see, e.g., Cohen, 1969). Such competition has long been managed with varying degrees of success in many places in the country, but it can erupt at any moment into violent confrontations (Boer, 2000: 13-20, Appendix 3). Both Kano and Lagos, Nigeria's two largest urban centers, attract immigrants from most other parts of the country. They come seeking economic opportunities, and frequently gain access to employment through kin networks or, failing that, through membership in an ethnic group. This means that economic competition often occurs between groups organized on ethnic bases. In consequence, such conflicts incorporate powerful potential to destabilize Nigeria's transition to democracy as well as the political situation more broadly, and to wreak havoc with the economy. At the same time, such economic competition, like other forms of dispute, can be managed successfully if local leaders have the training and institutional facilities that allow them to diffuse ethnic tensions before they boil over into open violence.

Political and electoral conflict. Nigeria's political and electoral history has been punctuated repeatedly with violent incidents. In the North, political and electoral competition, though often fierce, tends to be relatively peaceful. In the South, and particularly in the Southwest, violence has more often characterized political interactions and especially elections. Both have the potential to destabilize the transition to civilian rule and democracy. Both can spill back into patterns of ethnic competition; but, most often, such conflicts pit members of the same ethnic group against each other in struggles for leadership posts. Positive changes can be achieved within a two-year timeframe.

Delta oil resources linked to development and environmental problems. With several million extremely poor people living in circumstances of low-grade anarchy, where local collective action institutions have eroded badly, prospects for settling conflicts and promoting development appear sharply constrained. USAID lacks the resources and political leverage to change these dynamics by itself. If the GFRN takes serious steps to steer resources to the state level (via increased royalties and a viable NDDC), and if state governments commit themselves to developing the Delta, USAID might play a facilitating role in the institutional reintegration and development of the area.

At the moment, the level of violence that Delta youth can muster seems unlikely to seriously impede oil production. This implies that Delta conflicts will not exert a marked negative effect on the national economy. Moreover, Delta problems do not threaten consolidation of democratic civilian governance in Nigeria nor do they trigger ethnic riots elsewhere in the country. It seems problematic that assistance efforts could turn around, within the space of 2 years, 40 years of serious misrule, environmental degradation, and economic decline. For these reasons, the team considers the Delta no more than a second-order conflict in terms of USAID/Nigeria programming over the next two years.

Land and renewable resources. Conflicts concerning these resources can and do escalate into lethal violence among protagonists, but they tend to be localized incidents. Something meaningful could almost certainly be done within two years about individual cases of conflict; however, they do not (1) meet our criteria of destabilizing the consolidation of democracy in Nigeria, (2) seriously threaten the well-being of the national economy, and (3) systematically occur on the fault lines of major ethnic divisions.  They oppose indigenes, the term Nigerians use to designate those who first settled a region, and settlers-the term for immigrants who arrived later in an already claimed area. Not infrequently, they occur between members of the same ethnic group.

Indigenous governance structures versus contemporary secular constitutional governance: The popular consensus holds that most contemporary secular governments at all levels in Nigeria are "broken," in major part because those who lead them view public office as a means to enrich themselves and their communities by raiding public funds. This fuels popular desires for alternatives. Particularly in the North, the emirate system put in place after Usman dan Fodio's successful jihad against the Hausa states in the early nineteenth century retains in many places a capacity to provide some essential government services, particularly resolution of certain kinds of disputes.  In Yoruba areas as well, indigenous structures retain some authority. By contrast, indigenous leaders are discredited in many Ibo and minority areas (particularly the Delta).  Corrupt practices associated with secular governments undoubtedly retard development; they do not necessarily threaten consolidation of democratic civilian governance, nor do they have an easily measurable negative impact on the national economy that might threaten consolidation. Finally, it is unlikely that a two-year activity could modify this situation.

Labor-management. Such conflicts exist in Nigeria and could potentially be resolved within the two-year limit, but they are localized in nature, do not overtly threaten democratic consolidation, and, with the possible exception of the oil industry, do not threaten the national economy. These disputes include the current one between professors in the Nigerian university system and university management.

Youth. Young people, particularly young men, often take the lead in violence. This means that youth are, typically, a cross-cutting factor found in the majority of conflicts. Causes for their participation are diverse, but their status as unemployed or underemployed individuals often makes them extremely susceptible to invitations to participate in violence. Their role in conflicts needs to be addressed, as do the deeper causes, such as economic stagnation, that underlie it. CRESNET intervenors, with firm OTI/Nigeria support, have regularly and appropriately done so (OTI/Nigeria, 2000: 8-10, 11-12).

Media. Through their frequent involvement in conflict dynamics, print and electronic media pose a cross-cutting issue similar to that of youth. English-language print media dominate in the South, particularly in Southwest; in the North, local and international Hausa-language radio programs play the major role. Both print and electronic media can calm or exacerbate many conflicts-and have-so it makes sense to develop contingency plans and include journalists in contingency planning. Yet however objective and well-trained reporters may be, they do not have the last word on what appears in the press; editors do. Many observers contend that editors dramatize reporters' factual accounts of ethnic conflict to increase sales. Conflict contingency planning efforts directed at the media should thus involve editors as well as reporters.

Police/personal insecurity/vigilantes/police as stakeholders perverting role as law officers. The role of police and vigilante groups in either inciting or defusing disputes in a timely manner remains a key to managing conflict in Nigeria. Poor to abysmal police work was the norm rather than the exception under military rule, and police performance has not dramatically changed since the return to civilian rule (Boer, 2000: 36). OTI/Nigeria has, however, engaged with police officials interested in pursuing peace-training opportunities for officers (OTI/Nigeria, 2000: 7-8), and significant opportunities exist in this area.

In the meantime, police in and of themselves will not likely destabilize the move to civilian governance. Vigilante groups pose a greater problem in this regard, but, as with the police, the negative role of such groups in violence tends to be cross-cutting and contributory rather than primordial. Efforts to address the causes underlying ethnic conflicts will therefore have to deal with both police and vigilantes.

In summary, the team finds that two types of conflict merit immediate attention: religious and ethnic conflict. Electoral conflict merits attention as a second-order priority. If conditions improve for CR and development work in the South South states, investments in supporting CR efforts in that context would constitute a third-order priority.
 XII. VI. RECOMMENDATIONS

These recommendations reflect the fact that USAID/Nigeria wants to program conflict mitigation activity over the next two years. If adopted, the recommendations should be seen as an opening phase of a longer process. They are shaped by the conflict rankings presented in Section V. The criteria that inform those rankings of conflict types, listed subsection C of Section V, consist of the potential to (1) destabilize Nigeria's transition to democratic civilian governance, (2) damage the national economy sufficiently to undermine that transition, (3) generate ricochet riots, and (4) have the conflict type be partially mitigated within two years. Justification for these recommendations and a discussion of implementation options follows.

USAID should pursue and intensify OTI's CR work in the two high-priority areas and one medium-priority area, respectively:

Religious strife;
Ethnic/economic confrontations; and
Elections.

The team considers that the first two types of conflict, which are often linked, pose a more serious threat to the consolidation of democratic civilian governance in Nigeria than does electoral violence. Electoral violence occurs because candidates (and voters) intensely value winning office in a larger situation of ethnic and religious competition. It should be considered a second-order priority.

CR work in the South South would be a third-order priority, assuming amelioration of current conditions in the Delta and availability of USAID resources.

The Mission should seek to facilitate mitigation of religious strife and ethnic/economic confrontations in three geographic settings: Kaduna, Kano, and Lagos. Mission efforts to mitigate electoral violence should be focused in geographic areas that have a history of such violence as well as locations where political competition is expected to be intense. In addition to intervening in priority conflicts, the mission should support further development of Nigerian capacity to manage conflicts. In each geographic area the Mission should promote the following results:

Development of sustained peaceful interactions among stakeholders in conflict situations to enable them to establish trust and mutual understanding about the issues;
Development of reliable institutional arrangements to enable stakeholders to both prevent (renewed) conflict through timely interventions to defuse rumor-based violence before it starts and explore options for more positive interaction; and
Initiation of collaborative efforts to address the threats to basic human needs that underlie these conflicts.

Detailed results concerning these three points cannot be proposed effectively by outsiders on the basis of short-term visits.  Working agendas for conflict mitigation will have to be crafted in each targeted geographic area through facilitated workshops with full participation of all relevant stakeholders.

A. A. Justification for Proposed Activities-Religious and Economic-Ethnic Confrontations

USAID should focus its efforts on mitigating religious and economic-ethnic conflict on three states: Kaduna, Kano, and Lagos. AID-sponsored efforts to mitigate electoral violence should be channeled either through the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), USAID/Nigeria's implementing partner for support to the electoral process in Nigeria, or through a new IP responsible for a variety of CR activities.

 1. Religious violence

Kaduna suffered through a set of religiously based  riots in the four months from February 2000, with appalling loss of life (perhaps as many as 2,000 dead) and destruction of property. The violence has abated, but not the underlying causes, most of which relate to poverty in rural and urban areas. Many stakeholders in the state recognize this and have followed the lead of a progressive Muslim governor to consolidate peace gains by addressing the sources of the religious (and ethnic) strife.

Kaduna offers a compelling model for promoting development over the long term-an area where USAID can reasonably claim competence-as an enduring antidote to conflict and violence. It also offers USAID/Nigeria an opportunity to support investments keyed to development activities already mapped out and initiated by the governor, members of the state legislature, key opinion leaders (including CSOs), and local government officials.

In addition, USAID is planning to finance a pilot police reform support activity in Kaduna. Focusing part of the agency's CR effort on that state should provide ample opportunity for synergy and mutually reinforcing relations and learning between the two activities in creating a long-term foundation for peace, security, and development in the jurisdiction.

 2. Economic-ethnic confrontations

Kano and Lagos, as the country's two major metropolises, have a potential for catastrophic confrontation through the phenomenon of ricochet riots-the repeated pattern of violence in parts of the country removed from an area where a flash-point incident triggers local riots. If these escalate before they can be controlled, they typically culminate in substantial loss of life and property damage in the local setting. This temporarily destroys the basis for development within that context, which is bad enough. But such riots frequently ricochet, inducing negative repercussions in locations elsewhere in the country. The ricochet effect occurs when members of an ethnic group widespread through the country (typically Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba, or Igbo) consider themselves to have suffered unacceptable losses in the initial round of rioting. Members of that same group located elsewhere then "avenge their losses" by reprisal killings directed at members of the opposing ethnic group in their locality. The second set of victims has no connection with the first set other than that of shared ethnicity. They generally have played no meaningful role in the first riots.

Such ethnically based attacks usually occur at considerable distance (e.g., in Kano) to avenge losses in Lagos, or vice versa, and are directed against members of the opposing group with no concern for the individual guilt of individuals attacked and massacred. Work should begin with all speed to build on and reinforce the investments and achievements in mitigating ethnic conflict already realized in both of these cities under OTI's two-year mandate.

North-South ricochet riots have not been confined just to Kano and Lagos. So why should USAID focus its CR work on those two cities? Three principal reasons justify this choice. First, the history of ricochet riots in Nigeria since independence suggests that Kano and Lagos can become critical flash points again at any time. Second, many potential targets-settler ethnics-reside in both metropolises. Third, the large numbers of possible protagonists create an extreme potential for destructive violence both locally and elsewhere in the country. Because settlers tend to come from many parts of the country to these two major urban poles, serious trouble in either place can lead to ricochet effects in many other parts of the country.

That said, the team does not assert that preventing ethnic or religious outbreaks in those two places (as well as consolidating gains in Kaduna) automatically precludes violence elsewhere in Nigeria. Nonetheless, Lagos and Kano are the major population concentrations. If they explode in rioting, spread effects in other communities with indigene/other ethnic-nonindigene mixes will predictably be considerable. On the other hand, if it becomes possible to create sensible, consensual, effective antiviolence programs in both metropolises, those operations might help leaders and populations in Kano and Lagos withstand the temptation to jump in on the next round of religious or economic-ethnic rioting and metastasize the conflict.

 3. Electoral violence

USAID is currently not addressing this problem directly. Its support for IFES's work on the Nigerian electoral system focuses on reforming electoral law and improving the administration of elections. IFES collaborates with the INEC, seeking to build on and strengthen Nigerian initiatives already underway in this area. INEC and IFES share the goal of establishing electoral systems in Nigeria that are broadly seen to be legitimate because they create and maintain a reliable framework for fair primaries and general elections.

To mitigate electoral violence in priority areas, the Mission should follow an intervention model similar to that used for other conflicts. Thus, key stakeholders should be identified and their willingness to participate ascertained. Stakeholders may include election officials, political party members, candidates, youths, students, women, traditional and religious leaders, and NGOs. Training in conflict management should be provided as well as support for the development and implementation of a plan to mitigate local election violence. In addition to monitoring, activities may include civic education, creating and publishing campaign performance grade cards, and peace and constructive participation campaigns.

The Mission could proceed in this area either through its current implementing partner, IFES, or through a new IP engaged to guide USAID-financed CR work in Nigeria over the next two years. The IFES country director believes that it would be possible to provide conflict prevention and/or mitigation training to the electoral officers in the country's 774 LGAs, and to one or more NGOs, or at least to religious groups in each LGA. The Mission could increase IFES's budget to allow it to contract with CRESNET or other CR trainers to provide this training.

If a new IP charged with organizing USAID-financed CR work in Nigeria were given responsibility for supporting mitigation of electoral violence, that IP should collaborate with IFES and consult Nigerian elections experts to identify areas of highest priority.

IFES or the IP specializing in CR should also try to support establishment of a database on electoral violence, to be updated regularly. It would seem appropriate to locate such a monitoring system in one of the Nigerian university centers specializing in conflict. This would provide some degree of objectivity and encourage sustainability, since both staff and center leadership would have incentives to maintain the database.

B. B. Intervening in Priority Conflicts

To mitigate these priority conflicts, USAID should facilitate specific interventions and build Nigerian capacity to intervene constructively in conflicts. When intervening in particular communities, USAID should build on the model employed by OTI/Nigeria (described Section IV). In implementation terms, this would entail engaging an IP to work with Nigerian CR professionals (see Figure 2). The IP, in conjunction with Nigerian partners, would determine which communities within the priority geographic areas and conflict types to target. Once a target community is selected, a local facilitator would be identified. This could be a CRESNET member or a local CR NGO. The IP, Nigerian partner, and local facilitator would function as an intervention team working with the community through the intervention process. Activities may include:

Initiating separate meetings with relevant stakeholders (e.g., Muslim, Christian, and animist religious leaders; traditional and secular political leaders; business representatives, and NGOs) in all three states to (1) learn in detail how they see the stakes, (2) provide them with basic training in CR skills, and (3) prepare them for interaction with other stakeholders designed to prevent and resolve conflicts and disputes.
Organizing joint stakeholder workshops to (1) share perspectives on conflicts and disputes; (2) identify any areas of potential agreement, particularly concerning disputes, where parties can settle the matter through problem solving, develop solutions that accommodate interests of all parties; (3) help stakeholders break the remaining set of conflicts and disputes into more discrete and more manageable issues and prioritize those issues; and (4) as necessary, help establish permanent committees of stakeholders that can provide ongoing frameworks for CR through transformation of structures, processes, and relationships underlying a given conflict in order to meet the basic human needs of all stakeholders.
Supporting follow-on working groups responsible for analyzing individual conflicts and disputes and proposing solutions that can be presented to the full group of stakeholders for each geographic area.
Supporting efforts by stakeholders to increase their capacity to implement these solutions by (1) providing further training;  (2) facilitating access to state or national government institutions; (3) financing development tourism in which representatives of one area travel to another to learn how other groups have dealt with problems similar to theirs; (4) facilitating policy dialogue and policy change; (5) facilitating partnerships with NGOs; and (6) encouraging collaboration and cooperation among stakeholders so that together they can begin to build a record of joint achievement, trust, and confidence in each other's good faith and willingness to work toward solutions.

Opportunities for USAID to strengthen Nigerian conflict mitigation capacity exist at every intervention phase. A coherent capacity building program would operate at two levels: building a body of lessons learned in conflict intervention and developing the skills and organizational capacities of local facilitators in priority conflict areas. Multiple Nigerian resources could be drawn on for these activities. Universities with CR programs could be tapped to monitor and evaluate interventions, compile lessons learned, and develop training material to disseminate findings to practitioners. Practitioner skill development could be accomplished by supporting development of CRESNET and CRESNET members.

Under this rubric, USAID's CR activity would engage one or more Nigerian institutional partners whose strength lies in research and development of conflict mitigation knowledge (e.g., universities, think tanks, policy institutes, etc.). These partners would engage in knowledge acquisition and dissemination activities relevant to conflict mitigation and peacebuilding goals. Included here could be regular conferences of conflict mitigation personnel, organizations, scholars, and policy makers active in these areas. Such conferences would build on theme papers prepared by partner-organization staff that would focus participants' attention on the issues discussed above, facilitate exchange of knowledge, and develop analytical and applied techniques. Work would be organized around four priority issues:

Enhancing understanding of the sources and dynamics that lie beneath complex conflicts;
Integrating and disseminating the experience and learning of conflict mitigation professionals, and bringing these, as appropriate, to the attention of policy makers;
Reporting relevant scholarly research on these topics to practitioners; and
Developing new field materials and advanced training courses for practitioners.

As conflict mitigation develops further in Nigeria, it is critical that practitioners be well prepared to deal with the complex issues both of resolving immediate crises and successfully addressing underlying causes over the longer term. It is also important that their field learning not be lost or reduced to anecdotes. These and the following capacity-building activities should advance these goals.

To enhance CR skill levels in Nigeria, the CR IP would be responsible for promoting and supporting Nigerian producers of training for CR practitioners. Since most master trainers and those conducting research and analysis relevant to enhancing practitioners' CR skills would be based in the university CR centers (Ibadan, Jos, and possibly others), the IP would support the work of these centers as a priority. Support could take the form of funding for research, networking and training activities conducted by Nigerians and, where necessary, provision of technical assistance when required skills are not available in Nigeria.

 1. Strengthening CRESNET

As an organization, CRESNET has succeeded in drafting a constitution, registering with the government, establishing six zonal chapters, acquiring a dues-paying membership, and holding elections. Nevertheless, as noted above, it is still in the incubation stage. Although it has the potential to mature into a self-sustaining professional membership association, to do so, it will require further technical and material support at the national and zonal levels.

CRESNET and many of the organizations associated with it require further institutional capacity building in terms of training in the areas of strategic planning, management, administration, and monitoring and evaluation. Training in some of these areas, such as management and administration, is available through other programs and organizations in Nigeria. Others, such as evaluation of the content and performance of CR programs, may require international expertise, since the development of methods for evaluating CR programs and interventions is new within the CR field itself. In addition, members need more advanced training in CR-in terms of both depth and breadth. In particular, members need to expand their "toolbox" of interventions to include advocacy and other skills.

At present, CRESNET accepts only individual members. Reasons for this are rooted in its history. It is recommended, however, that this policy be revisited in the future, when the organization's continued existence seems more assured. Sustaining both individual and organizational memberships with different membership criteria, rights, and responsibilities would increase the organization's utility to individuals, CSOs, and CBOs. Organizational memberships, in particular, would enhance CRESNET's position in advocating on a broad range of issues, at national, state, and local levels on behalf of its members, its constituents, and its beneficiaries.

Although CRESNET should provide CR training to officials in the executive and legislative branches at all three levels of government, governments should not be permitted to join CRESNET as collective members. CRESNET needs to maintain a visible degree of autonomy from stakeholders of all sorts as a guarantee of its impartiality. Governments often either cause violence by officials' policies or actions or must play a role in stopping violence.

Most important, CRESNET requires considerable technical assistance in identifying activities and marketing strategies that will ensure its sustainability. Members will continue to pay dues only if they receive tangible benefits. To meet this requirement, CRESNET might provide members a variety of services, including:

An information clearinghouse that draws in part on experiences of CRESNET members and in part on information developed by Nigerian university centers specializing in conflict mitigation.
A newsletter presenting information (drawn in large part from the information clearinghouse) about CR events inside and outside Nigeria, including announcements of jobs, publications, educational and training opportunities, and conferences and workshops.
An electronic newsletter with the same information described above, supplemented by on-line discussion groups addressing issues of importance pertaining to CR theory and practice.
A directory of individual members and associated/member organizations that might be distributed to local, state and national governments, donors, and other potential users of CR training and intervention services.
Databases with information about donors that fund peacebuilding and CR activities and scholarships for education and training in peace and conflict studies.
An annual conference to bring together researchers, policy makers, and practitioners from the CR field to share best practices and lessons learned.
Periodic training workshops on specific areas of CR, such as mediation, facilitation, advocacy, and so on.
Strategic planning and evaluation services for associated/member organizations' CR and peacebuilding programs and interventions.

The transition from OTI to USAID provides an opportunity for CRESNET to forge new linkages with CR organizations that are currently outside of its networks, including other NGOs, universities, think tanks, donors, and government agencies. Since CR is an applied field, establishing linkages with universities and think tanks with ongoing CR programs, such as CEPACS at the University of Ibadan, is critical to ensure feedback loops among theory, research, and practice.

 2. Drawing on existing strengths in Nigerian universities

University of Ibadan's CEPACS's CR center brings already developed capacity to critical subareas of conflict analysis and research. CEPACS's Professor Albert and its director, Professor Adekanye, have expressed interest in including USAID in CEPACS's list of collaborating institutions, along the lines of and for reasons outlined at the beginning of this section.

University of Jos's CPCR program, currently under development, should be strengthened through modest USAID grants and contracts. USAID's IP should meet regularly with the British Council, Bradford University, and any other institutions collaborating with CPCR to ensure that all contributions are mutually supportive and that all stakeholders have a clear, shared vision of the Center's objectives and future development path.

USAID should likewise seek to establish connections with other strategically located, interested universities that might develop CR support programs tailored to the requirements of particularly regions. It is important to recognize and respect the practical and political dimensions of CR training and research. As CRESNET has found, one package of CR techniques does not fit all local situations in Nigeria. For that reason, CRESNET leaders have begun efforts in each of the six zones to adapt general approaches to local conditions. Having several more universities involved in addition to Ibadan and Jos would make sense if the additional ones were located in geopolitical zones relatively remote from the first two centers (e.g., the Northwest, Northeast, Southeast, and South South).
  3. Sensitivity to perceptions of religious or ethnic bias in implementing community interventions

To be effective, CR practitioners have to be above suspicion of partisanship, and stakeholders need to have confidence that CR practitioners are neutral parties. In a context where ethnic identity can send a signal freighted with significance, this is not a trivial issue. Because sides in conflicts have been chosen along religious and ethnic fault lines, it will be essential for staff of USAID's implementing partner and the Nigerian expertise they draw upon to adequately reflect the diversity within the communities in which they work. This can potentially strongly influence possibilities for furthering peacebuilding and development in Nigeria.
C.
D. C. Linkages

These linkages address activities in other USAID/Nigeria portfolios whose activities affect prospects for CR in specific sectors, geographic areas, or both.

 1. Economic growth

Lack of economic opportunity directly contributes to the intensity of conflict in Nigeria; competition is not perceived just as zero-sum, but shrinking-sum. Unemployment makes youths more restive and frustrated. To combat this, USAID should consider targeting unemployed youth in conflict priority regions for skills training and small enterprise development, as well as supporting generation of employment opportunities for youth in these regions.

 2. Police

The USAID/OTI police team has recommended that police form Citizens Advisory Committees to enhance police-community dialogue. It is likely, however, that citizens selected to these Committees may not be representative of their communities. Rather than, or in addition to, the Citizens Advisory Committees, it is highly recommended that the police sponsor regular town hall meetings open to all interested community members as forums for dialogue about areas of mutual concern. This is a common practice in the United States. In Nigeria, it will be essential that the town hall meetings be facilitated by a third party perceived as neutral, such as a CSO.

 3. Justice

USAID/Nigeria has engaged the National Center for State Courts (NCSC) as its IP for support to the country's justice sector. NCSC personnel are pursuing a strategy of assisting Appeals court judges to acquire budgeting and management skills necessary to improve the efficiency of their operations. NCSC also supports improving judges' material and salary conditions. After Appeals court capacities have been strengthened, attention will be turned to courts of first instance to improve their performance and so reduce burden on Appeals courts. NCSC also sees value in encouraging alternative dispute resolution (ADR) mechanisms.

 4. Civil society

USAID is already providing considerable support to CSOs in Nigeria. There may be substantial room for combining efforts among Democracy and Governance (DG)-supported CSOs and CR-supported civil society organizations. For example, advocacy training, strategic planning, and evaluation and monitoring training can be offered to all of these organizations simultaneously. In addition, Nigerian CR organizations might offer CR training to advocacy organizations and vice versa.

Another potential area for linking the two programs is through the CEDPA-implemented Women in Politics program. CR and peacebuilding is an important political arena from which women have been excluded-whether as elected officials or as civil society leaders-and within which women could make significant contributions. In consequence, women peacebuilders often lack the political and advocacy skills to ensure that their initiatives have the type of high-level, far-reaching, and long-term impacts that they should. A strong start on remedying this problem could easily be made within the next two years.

 5. Civil-military

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has taken over responsibility for the civil-military portfolio in Nigeria. Nonetheless, given the salience of persistent, unresolved conflict as a potential justification for renewed intervention by the military in Nigerian politics, USAID/Nigeria and DoD should keep each other mutually informed of their operations so that each may take advantages of opportunities created by the other's activities.

XIII. VII. PLAN OF ACTION

The team believes USAID should move on four fronts as it takes over responsibility from OTI for the CR portfolio in Nigeria.

First, it should move as rapidly as humanly feasible to engage an IP with skills in CR and broader based development operations. Following the lead of the Kaduna governor, the Mission should view development skills as an indispensable key to sustainable resolutions of conflicts that, in Nigeria, almost always involve an underlying economic cause.
Second, USAID should ensure that its IP for CR moves expeditiously to continue support for CRESNET and to develop appropriate relationships with universities and other institutions relevant to strengthening CR activities in Nigeria.
Third, Mission managers should ensure that its IPs mutually reinforce each other's activities whenever that can contribute to peacebuilding in Nigeria.
Fourth, USAID should continue and strengthen coordination efforts that OTI and the Mission have already initiated with other donors, including notably DFID, UNDP, and the UN Foundation.

A. A. Avoiding Loss of Momentum in Conflict Resolution

The potential time lag between the end of OTI technical support to CR activities in Nigeria, including especially CRESNET, and the start of USAID technical support risks losing many of the gains achieved by CRESNET over the past six months. The team strongly recommends that at least one member of OTI's national program staff be retained by USAID during the transition from OTI to USAID responsibility for the CR portfolio. This individual will serve as CRESNET's institutional memory and, for CRESNET's members, will facilitate the transition from OTI to USAID.

B. B. Supporting CRESNET, Universities, and Other Relevant Institutions

USAID's CR IP should rapidly connect with CRESNET officials at the national and zonal levels, universities already engaged in or interested in focusing on CR studies (research, analysis, training in conflict abatement and development), and other institutions, donor organizations included. This should involve a series of preliminary workshops culminating in a national level conflict stakeholders' workshop to establish an agenda for action during the two-year period of this initial follow-on to OTI's CR activities. This will ensure a shared vision and buy-in by Nigerian partners who must, inevitably, assume most of the burden of CR.

The IP should be tasked and authorized to organize a fund to finance small grants and subcontracts with Nigerian partners appropriate for particular assignments running from crisis intervention to longer term development activities intended to address underlying causes of conflict. The funding mechanism should incorporate considerable flexibility to enable the IP to respond rapidly in an opportunistic manner when occasions arise to support CR and peacebuilding.

 1. Linkages

Mission personnel understand the opportunities for synergy involved in USAID/Nigeria's governance, civil society, and economic growth activities. Relevant partners are those IPs mandated to support improved governance by strengthening rule of law, policing, election, and advocacy functions (CSOs, CBOs, etc.) at LGA, state, and federal levels, and those that engage in broader economic development activities. As part of this effort, the Mission should consider having some of its staff participate in CR training courses to enable them to acquire a more hands-on feel for the kinds of problems the IP will face and the kinds of skills necessary to address those problems.

 2. Donor coordination

The British High Commissioner, in particular, as well as DFID staff, has expressed strong interest in coordinating donors' CR activities in Nigeria. They believe that the delicacy of the CR issues, particularly those centered on religious, economic-ethnic, and election-related violence, makes imperative regular exchanges and mutual support among donors if their CR and peacebuilding activities and investments are to achieve their intended results.
UNDP envisages supporting CR as part of its governance portfolio. As noted, the UN Foundation may support, among other programs, UNDP CR activities. If other donors (e.g., the Germans, the Canadians, or the French) develop significant CR programs, or begin to work more broadly in the area of governance, ensuring their full participation in donor coordination efforts should become a USAID priority.

At a later date, if the Mission pursues CR in the Delta, it may be appropriate to include in donor coordination meetings the oil companies that make social and economic development investments in that region.

 (i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv) APPENDICES
 

XIV. APPENDIX A: TERMS OF REFERENCE
Future Directions for USAID Support to Conflict Mitigation in Nigeria Scope of Work

B. A. Purpose

For the last 15 months, USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives in Nigeria (OTI/Nigeria) has been implementing a successful program of support to civil society in mitigating a range of ethnic, communal, and resource-based conflicts. With OTI/Nigeria winding up its activities in the next six months, the purpose of this consultancy is to identify the major conflict areas that could potentially undermine Nigeria's democratic transition, review efforts undertaken thus far to mitigate these conflicts, and develop a set of recommendations for OTI/Nigeria and the USAID Mission (USAID/Nigeria) on how best to continue support for conflict mitigation activities in Nigeria and how to do so in a way that supports USAID/Nigeria's strategic objectives through December 2003.

C. B. Background

During their 15-year rule, the Nigeria's military systematically undermined the polity's ability to respond creatively to internal disputes. Not only did they view domestic conflicts as a threat and repression as the appropriate response, but also through a combination of neglect and manipulation, the military dissipated the capacity and legitimacy of political institutions at the federal, state, and local levels. The resumption of civilian rule in May 1999 brought with it an opening of political space that, in turn, gave room for forcibly repressed disputes to burst into the open. Unfortunately, even under democratic rule, Nigeria's weak and largely discredited political institutions have had difficulty serving as forums for airing disputes and responding to them in ways that are generally considered unbiased and legitimate.

The result has been that Nigeria's democratic transition has been marked by numerous conflicts that have turned violent, as disputants have shunned political solutions in favor of force. These violent conflicts pose a real threat to Nigeria's continued democratic transition. The inability of democratic rule to maintain civil peace and prevent death and destruction provides an argument for a return to the "order" of military rule. More subtly, the continued failure of political processes to respond to disputes further undermines faith in the rule of law and the institutions on which democracy depends.

To respond to the potentially destabilizing effects of violent conflict, in FY2000 OTI/Nigeria initiated a program of support to segments of civil society committed to promoting tolerance and seeking nonviolent resolution of disputes. During the year, OTI funded 48 grants valued at over $1.6 million in support of conflict mitigation. These grants supported a range of interventions, including facilitated workshops, joint problem-solving sessions, organization of peace committees and other mechanisms for maintaining dialogue, and media campaigns promoting tolerance and peaceful coexistence. These interventions have produced a number of successes.

Another emphasis of OTI's work has been increasing the numbers and skills of individuals and organizations interested in serving as facilitators and catalysts for peaceful conflict resolution (CR). In February 2000, OTI embarked on a program of conflict mitigation training of Nigerian non-governmental organizations (NGOs) covering all six sociopolitical zones. This training led to the formation of six zonal chapters and a national chapter of a Conflict Resolution Stakeholders Network (CRESNET).

OTI's mandate in Nigeria ends with the current fiscal year. As part of its exit strategy, OTI identified conflict mitigation as one of two programmatic areas deserving continuation beyond its departure. OTI also identified USAID/Nigeria as the most appropriate agency to support follow-on activities. Although the Mission has agreed in principle to assuming responsibility for supporting conflict mitigation activities, it is looking to this assessment and strategic planning exercise to help decide how best to go about it, bearing in mind its strategic objectives and budgetary constraints.
 D.
E. C. Tasks

The Contractor will perform the following tasks as part of this consultancy:

1. Conduct interviews with an illustrative group of stakeholders in conflict mitigation/resolution in Nigeria, including:

Staff in all four OTI regional offices (Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, and Kano);
Staff of USAID implementing partners in the Democratic Governance sector (i.e., NDI, IRI, CEDPA, International Human Rights Law Group);
Members of both the zonal and national chapters of CRESNET;
Staff of the Government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (GFRN) agencies with responsibilities for conflict mitigation/resolution (i.e., The Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, the War College's Peace Center);
Representatives of training programs focused on CR/peace studies (University of Ibadan, University of Jos);
Representatives of other donors with interests in conflict mitigation (British High Commission); and
Representatives of a sample of NGOs active in conflict mitigation. This sample should be regionally diverse and include organizations pursuing a range of conflict mitigation strategies.

2. Review a set of existing documents from OTI, other donors, NGOs, and the GFRN that pertain to the nature of conflict in Nigeria and various strategies for ensuring that it is managed peacefully. These documents will be assembled by OTI/Nigeria and USAID/Nigeria and made available to the team at the start of the consultancy.

3. Prepare an assessment of conflict mitigation/resolution in Nigeria that provides the context for understanding conflict in Nigeria, analyzes and synthesizes the results from the interviews and document review into lessons learned, and recommends a set of realistic and actionable programs that could be implemented by USAID to address the more significant conflicts in the country. The assessment should respond to the following questions:

What is the nature of conflict in Nigeria? Why do conflicts so frequently become violent? Which of these conflicts are most likely to destabilize the ongoing democratic transition?
What is the current policy environment for conflict mitigation? Are there laws or practices at the federal or state level that support or undermine conflict mitigation, especially facilitative interventions by civil society organizations?
What are the lessons of past and present efforts to promote conflict mitigation activities in Nigeria, including those by OTI, other donors (especially the British High Commission), the GON, and NGOs?
What resources currently exist in Nigeria to support conflict mitigation/CR activities and what is their capacity? These resources include think tanks (Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, or IPCR), training programs, NGOs, and the zonal and national chapters of CRESNET.
What more will it take to turn the zonal and national chapters of CRESNET into model resources for conflict mitigation/intervention, training, and advocacy? This assessment should include specific recommendations on organizational structure and needed areas of capacity building and training.
Are there opportunities for synergy between OTI's support for conflict mitigation and the work of other USAID implementing partners (IPs)?
Are there lessons to be learned from conflict mitigation strategies in other countries that should inform USAID's future support to conflict mitigation in Nigeria?

4. Develop a plan/recommendations for how best USAID can continue support to conflict mitigation through December 2003. This plan should be as specific as possible and include:

Programmatic priorities and funding requirements;
Activities that should be pursued during OTI's remaining presence and those to be supported by the Mission after hand-over;
The level and nature of support to the national and zonal chapters of CRESNET and to other resources for conflict mitigation training and intervention; and
Staffing and management requirements within USAID/Nigeria to oversee these activities.

5. Conduct a one-day strategic planning workshop with staff of OTI/Nigeria and USAID/Nigeria that would include a review of the proposed plan and would obtain commitment to future actions that would ensure a smooth hand-over of activities.

F. D. Deliverables

Prior to departing Nigeria, the contractor will submit five copies of a draft written report that responds to the tasks identified. Within two weeks of departure from Nigeria, the contractor will provide a final report, which incorporates comments of OTI/Nigeria and USAID/Nigeria.
The contractor will submit 10 copies of its final report to OTI/Nigeria within two weeks of completing the field activities. This final report shall contain both responses to the assessment questions and strategic plan and shall incorporate comments received by OTI/Nigeria and USAID/Nigeria.

The final report should contain at least the following headings for organization:

Executive Summary;
Background of Conflict in Nigeria;
Policy Environment;
Findings/Lessons Learned;
Recommendations;
A Plan of Action; and
Contacts.

G. E. Personnel

The contractor will assemble a three-person team with the following technical skills:

Strategic planning specialist with substantial past experience with USAID democratic governance programming and strong program design skills. This individual will serve as the Team Leader.
Civil society specialist capable of analyzing the capacity of NGOs.
Conflict mitigation/resolution specialist able to draw on both comparative experience and personal familiarity with facilitated approaches.

Prior to departure from the United States, the contractor will review the documentation provided by OTI/Nigeria and USAID/Nigeria. Upon arrival in Nigeria, the contractor will meet jointly with OTI/Nigeria and USAID/Nigeria for general orientation and clarification of expectations.

H. F. Timeframe

Fieldwork should begin no later than March 19, 2001, and is expected to last three weeks.
 XV. APPENDIX B: BIBLIOGRAPHY
 (Partially Annotated)

A. A. Books and Articles
Ashafa, Ustaz Muhammad Nurayn and Evangelist James Movel Wuye. The Pastor and the Imam: Responding to Conflict. Lagos: Ibrash Publications Centre Ltd., 1999. [Recounts the story of two religious youth leaders, one Muslim, one Christian, finding their way from confrontation to dialogue and collaboration. Offers comparisons of Quranic and Biblical texts on common themes, a discussion of their collaboration and collaboration techniques, and details of their efforts to build peace between the two religious communities in Nigeria. Pages 87-88 provide survey information on the 35 religious riots that have occurred in Nigeria in the two decades from 1977 to 1997.]

Baker, Pauline, H. Weller, and E. Angeli. An Analytical Model of Internal Conflict and State Collapse: Manual for Practitioners. Washington, DC: The Fund for Peace, 1998.

Bako, Sabo. "Muslims, State and the Struggle for Democratic Transition in Nigeria: From Cooperation to Conflict." In Dilemmas of Democracy in Nigeria, Paul Beckett and Crawford Young, eds. Rochester, NY: Rochester University Press, 1997, pp. 283-302.

Beckett, Paul, and Crawford Young (eds.). Dilemmas of Democracy in Nigeria. Rochester, NY: Rochester University Press, 1997.

Cohen, Abner. Custom and Politics in Urban Africa: A Study of Hausa Migrants in a Yoruba Town. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1969.

Conflict Impact Assessment: A Practical Working Tool for Prioritizing Development Assistance in Unstable Situations. Brussels: Conflict Prevention Network (CPN), 1999.

Conflict Vulnerability in Peru: An Assessment. US Agency for International Development. Washington, DC: Evidence Based Research (EBR) and Management Systems International (MSI), 2000.

Coulson, Noel J. A History of Islamic Law. Edinburgh: University Press, 1964.

Diamond, Larry. "Nigeria's Perennial Struggle." In The Global Resurgence of Democracy, Larry Diamond and Marc. F. Plattner, eds. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993, pp. 217-229. [Written at end of Babangida regime, asserts Nigeria's major problem is corruption. Political elites throughout country obtain their phenomenal wealth through their control of political offices. Everyone struggles for office because the payoffs are so high (p. 222).]

Diamond, Larry, Anthony Kirk-Greene, and Oyeleye Oyediran, (eds.). Transition Without End: Nigerian Politics and Civil Society Under Babangida. Boulder, CO: Rienner Press, 1997.

Dudley, B.J. An Introduction to Nigerian Government and Politics. London, 1992.

Fink, Kasey. "Conflict Prevention: Conceptual Frameworks and Applications." Research and References Services Project. Academy for Educational Development. ND.

Lederach, John Paul. "Building Peace: Sustainable Reconciliation in Divided Societies." Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 1997.

"A Methodology or Conflict Sensitive Planning for NGO, INGO and Donor Operations in Kenya: Seven Steps for Conflict Impact Assessment." International Alert. Centre for Conflict Research. ND.

Preventing and Mitigating Violent Conflicts: A Guide for Practitioners. The Greater Horn of Africa Initiative, US Department of State and US Agency for International Development. Washington, DC: Creative Associates International, March 1996.

Ekwe-Ekwe, Herbert. Issues in Nigerian Politics Since the Fall of the Second Republic. Lewiston, NY: Edwin Meller Press, 1991.

Falola, Toyin. "Christian Radicalism and Nigerian Politics." In Dilemmas of Democracy in Nigeria, Paul Beckett and Crawford Young, eds. Rochester, NY: Rochester University Press, pp. 265-282.

Fink, Kasey. Conflict Prevention: Conceptual Frameworks and Applications. Research and References Services Project. Washington, DC: Academy for Educational Development. ND.

Frynas, Jedrezj George. "Corporate and State Responses to Anti-Oil Protests in the Niger Delta." African Affairs, No. 100, 2001, 27-54.

George, Christiana Adokiye. "Negotiating International Partnerships for the Rural Poor: The Nigerian Experience." In Development: The Society for International Development. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 1998, pp. 46-48.

Ibelema, Minabere. "Nigeria: The Politics of Marginalization." Current History, May, 2000, 211-214. [Asserts that one of challenges facing President Obasanjo is addressing real or perceived marginalization of nearly every ethnic group in Nigeria. All feel threatened and oppressed, and are therefore more easily mobilized in self-defense. Multiplication of states and local government areas has had the unintended consequence of creating a whole new set of peoples and individuals who feel marginalized.]

Ifeka, Caroline. "Ethnic 'Nationalities,' God & the State: Whither the Federal Republic of Nigeria?" Review of African Political Economy, Vol. 27, No. 85, 2000, 450-459.

Joseph, Richard. Democracy and Prebendal Politics in Nigeria: The Rise and Fall of the Second Republic. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987.

Kasfelt, Wiels. Religion and Politics in Nigeria. London: British Academic Press, 1994.

Laitin, David. "The Sharia Debate and the Origins of Nigeria's Second Republic." In Journal of Modern African Studies, Vol. 20, No. 3, 1982.

Lederach, John Paul. Building Peace: Sustainable Reconciliation in Divided Societies. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 1997.

Lewis, Peter M., and Michael Bratton. Attitudes Toward Democracy and Markets in Nigeria: Report of a National Opinion Survey. IFES/MSI. Lagos: Research and Marketing Services, Ltd., April 2000.

Lloyd, P.C. "The Ethnic Background to the Nigerian Crisis." In Nigerian Politics and Military Rule: Prelude to the Civil War, S.K. Panter-Brick, ed. London: Athlone Press, 1970, pp. 1-13.

Luckham, A.R. "The Nigerian Military: Disintegration or Integration?" In Nigerian Politics and Military Rule: Prelude to the Civil War, S.K. Panter-Brick, Ed. London: Athlone Press, 1970, pp. 14-57.

Maier, Karl. This House Has Fallen; Midnight in Nigeria. New York: Public Affairs Press (Member of Persus Books Group), 2000.

Okafoe, F.U. (ed.). New Strategies for Curbing Ethnic Conflict in Nigeria. Fourth Dimension Publishers, 1997.

Osaghae, Eghosa E. Ethnicity and its Management in Africa. Lagos, Nigeria: Centre for Advanced Social Science, 1997.

________. "The Ogoni Uprising: Oil Politics, Minority Nationalism and the Future of the Nigerian State." African Affairs, Vol. 93, No. 376, 1995a.

________. Structural Adjustment and Ethnicity in Nigeria. Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Research Report No. 98. Uppsala, Sweden, 1995b.

________. "Managing Multiple Minority Problems in a Divided Society: The Nigerian Experience." The Journal of Modern African Studies, 36, 1, 1998, 1-24.

Otite, Onigu, and Isaac Olawale Albert, (eds.). Community Conflicts in Nigeria: Management, Resolution, and Transformation. Ibadan: Spectrum Books Ltd., 2001.

Paden, John N. Religion and Political Culture in Kano. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1973.

________. "Nigerian Unity and Tensions of Democracy." In Dilemmas of Democracy in Nigeria. Paul Beckett and Crawford Young, eds. Rochester, NY: Rochester University Press, 1997, pp. 243-264.

Panter-Brick, S.K., (ed.). Nigerian Politics and Military Rule: Prelude to the Civil War, London: Athlone Press, 1970.

Rothchild, Donald S. Managing Ethnic Conflict in Africa: Pressures and Incentives for Cooperation. Washington, DC: Brookings, 1997.

Sklar, Richard. "Crises and Transitions in the Political History of Nigeria." In Dilemmas of Democracy in Nigeria. Paul Beckett and Crawford Young, eds. Rochester, NY: Rochester University Press, 1997, pp. 15-44.

Smith, Michael G. Government in Zazzau, 1800-1950. London: Oxford University Press, 1960.

Suberu, Rotimi. "Federalism, Ethnicity and Regionalism in Nigeria." In Dilemmas of Democracy in Nigeria. Paul Beckett and Crawford Young, eds. Rochester, NY: Rochester University Press, 1997, pp. 341-360.

Uwazie, Ernest, Issac O. Albert, and Godfrey Uzoigwe, (eds.). Inter-Ethnic and Religious Conflict Resolution in Nigeria. New York: Lexington Books, 1999.

Williams, General Ishola (Ret.). "Complex Subjects Made Easy." NP, ND.

Wunsch, James S. "Ethnic Conflict in Nigeria." Draft No. 3, April 9, 2001.

B. B. Documents

Baker, Pauline. "The Economics of Nigerian Federalism." Prepared for the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Department of State. Washington, DC: Battelle Human Affairs Research Centers Washington Operations, February 1984.

Boer, Wiebe. "To Build a Nation Where Peace and Justice Shall Reign: A Report on OTI Nigeria Conflict Resolution Initiatives." Report prepared for OTI/Nigeria, 2000. [Summarizes OTI/Nigeria conflict resolution activities and classifies reported conflict incidents in seven (7) categories: Communal and ethnic (19); government (7); religion (7); youth (17); labor (4); media (1); education (1), as well as noting relevance of underlying poverty] and four appendices: 1. "Religious Riots in the North" [notes 34 riots in the 21 years from 1980 to 2000]; 2. Ife-Modakeke Field Report [uses land tenure case study to distinguish mitigation or abatement of open violence from sustainable solution to underlying causes of conflict]; 3. "Summaries of the Interviews Conducted by Wiebe Boer; and 4. Completed, Ongoing and Approved Conflict Resolution Related Programs, OTI/Nigeria, [94 activities].

CAREFOR. Campaign for the Reforestation of Katsina State. ND. "Deforestation and the Threat to Human Survival in Katsina State." [Mission statement of an NGO dedicated to opposing continued illegal destruction of reserved forests established by the Emirs of Katsina and Daura beginning in 1916, in areas now encompassed by contemporary Katsina State. By 1960, at independence, 200 such forests existed. According to CAREFOR, these forests have not been exempt from the consequences of corrupt practices. "But as from 1970, and especially in the last 15 years, these forest reserves, which involved so much labour, funds and time to nurture are being systematically sold, encroached upon and destroyed by, or through the connivance of highly placed government officials, Emirs, District and Village Heads. This has already virtually destroyed most of the forest reserves and communal forest areas all over the State."

Conflict Resolution Stakeholders's Network (CRESNET). ND. Constitution.

________. Conflict Management Facilitators's Manual. USIAD/OTI. April 2001a.

________. Conflict Management Training Manual. USIAD/OTI. April 2001b.

Department for International Development  (DFID). The Causes of Conflict in Africa: Consultation Document. London: DFID Information Department, March 2001.

Integrated Regional Information networks (IRIN). "NIGERIA: IRIN Focus on poverty and conflict." UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). 24 March 2000a.

________. "NIGERIA: IRIN Focus on rift between executive and legislature." UN OCHA. 15 May 2000b.

________. "NIGERIA: IRIN Focus on new Biafra movement." UN OCHA. 24 May 2000c.

________. "NIGERIA: IRIN Focus on Obasanjo's changing political fortunes." UN OCHA. 14 June 2000d.

________. "NIGERIA: IRIN Focus on the Niger Delta environment." UN OCHA. 11 July 2000e.

________. "NIGERIA: IRIN Focus on anti-crime militia in the southeast." UN OCHA. 13 July 2000f.

________. "NIGERIA: IRIN Focus on oil pipeline fires." UN OCHA. 31 July 2000g.

________. "NIGERIA: IRIN Focus on new arrangements with the IMF, World Bank." UN OCHA. 8 August 2000h.

________. "NIGERIA: IRIN Focus on the government's troubled Niger Delta Programme." UN OCHA. 29 September 2000i.

________. "NIGERIA: Draft constitution out next year." UN OCHA. 20 October 2000j.

________. "NIGERIA: IRIN Focus on the deepening north-south divide." UN OCHA. 20 October 2000k.

________. "NIGERIA: Focus on Nigeria's militias." UN OCHA. 23 October 2000l.

________. "NIGERIA: IRIN Focus on new security strategy in the Niger Delta." UN OCHA. 7 November 2000m.

________. "NIGERIA: IRIN Focus on demands for repeal of land law." UN OCHA. 28 February 2001a.

________. "NIGERIA: IRIN Focus on controversy over control of resources." UN OCHA. 2 April 2001b.

________. "NIGERIA: UN launches good governance campaign." UN OCHA. 12 April 2001c.

International Alert. "A Methodology for Conflict Sensitive Planning for NGO, INGO and Donor Operations in Kenya: Seven Steps for Conflict Impact Assessment." Centre for Conflict Research. ND.

OTI/Nigeria. "Results Report: FY 2000." 2000.

USAID. "Preliminary Observations and Recommendations on Conflict Resolution and Reconciliation Issues in Nigeria." Prepared by A/AID Jennifer J. Douglas for Submission as Part of the USAID Working Group's Assessment Team Report. September 9, 1998. [Presents an overview of sources of conflict in Nigeria-interregional, intraregional minority/majority-role of military, political elite, cultural identity, poverty, greed, immorality and corruption, religion, disarray of civil society after Babangida, and Abacha efforts to destroy citizen groupings. Notes a number of civil society groups still active in 1998 in peacemaking.]

________. "The Implications of the Adoption of Sharia Statutes by Northern Nigerian States for the Transition, Stability and Poverty Eradication." Prepared for G/EGAD/AFS by Jennifer J. Douglas, August 2000a, pp.  ii, 23; three annexes missing. [Examines critically potential for destabilization of Nigeria through application of shari'a, highlighting constitutional issues in terms both of location of ultimate authority in federation and impacts of shari'a application on individual economic and human rights; divided loyalties within local units of Nigerian Police Force; and within Nigeria Armed Forces. Implies that Northern elites, particularly ex-Presidents Buhari and Babangida, side with advocates of applying shari'a because they believe it will destabilize Obasanjo's regime. Notes that Obasanjo has opted for a political solution to the crisis rather than bringing a case in federal court challenging state-based shari'a initiatives because, of the 17 Federal High Court justices, 9 are Muslims.]

________. "Impact of the Rule of Law on Conflict and Conflict Resolution in Nigeria." Prepared by Jean Bennett, Research Associate Contractor; submitted to USAID/AFR, Washington, D.C. 02 August 2000b. 29 pp. plus four-page attachment. "A Sampling of Communal Conflicts in Nigeria Since Obasanjo's Inauguration on May 29, 1999." [Attachment lists 29 separate incidents of violence occurring during the nine months from June 1999 to February 2000, with a reported death toll in 19 of those incidents of at least 1,879 people. Of the remaining 10 incidents, 7 involved kidnappings of oil company personnel, most of whom were released unharmed. The remaining incidents involved land issues, student/police interactions, and other kidnapped foreign nationals.]

________. "Conflict Vulnerability in Peru: An Assessment." Washington, DC: Evidence Based Research (EBR) and Management Systems International (MSI), 2000c.

________. "Testimony of Andrew S. Natsios, Administrator-designate, U.S. Agency for International Development Before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, April 23, 2001." 2001a. Four pages. [Includes reference to conflict abatement as a major policy concern.]

________. "The Role of Foreign Assistance in Conflict Prevention." Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2001b.

U.S. Department of State and U.S. Agency for International Development. "Preventing and Mitigating Violent Conflicts: A Guide for Practitioners." The Greater Horn of Africa Initiative. Washington, DC: Creative Associates International. March 1996

World Bank. "Economic Causes of Civil Conflict and Their Implications for Policy." By Paul Collier, Director, Development Research Group, World Bank. 15 June 2000. 23 pages. [Argues that guerilla warfare movements occur when leaders can sustain them financially; this is easier when primary commodities destined for export can be captured at geographic "choke points." Argument based in part on dilemma of second order public goods.]

C. C. Newspaper and Internet Articles

[A quick skim on any day through any serious English-language newspaper published in Nigeria will reveal a minimum of five articles dealing with violent conflicts centered on political, economic, or ethnic issues. Such questions are well covered in the local press. Quality of reporting frequently appears quite reasonable; several persons interviewed asserted, however, that editors often dramatize and exaggerate incidents to increase sales. Such scandal mongering is not conducive to calming passions, but seems on balance a lesser evil than underreporting conflicts. Nigerian journalists and publications are patently not guilty of the latter.]

Abayomi, Olabisi. "US-bound job seeker killed." Vanguard, Saturday, 12 May 2001, pp. 1, 3. [Example of the kind of vigilante justice currently practiced in many Nigerian neighborhoods. This incident occurred in Lagos.]

Adeyamo, Wola. "Again, Bonfires for Sharia." Tell. 30 April 2001, p. 49. ["Sharia enforcers raze hotels and recreational centres in Kano, two days after Deputy Governor Abdulahi Ganduje led scores of young men to destroy alcohol at the hotels."]

Ali, Mohammed. "The Hand of Esau." Tell. 7 May 2001a, pp. 32-33. [Account of riots in Gombe that killed between 10 and 20 people. 'Anti-Israeli' riots were allegedly fomented by opposition politicians in effort to destabilize government of Governor Abubakar Hashidu. Interviews with four hospitalized male victims, ages 20-30, who reported they were shot by mobile police without provocation as they were not participating in the riots. Shi'ite Muslim leader disclaims any responsibility; police assume motivation political, not religious.]

________. "Who Leads the North?" Tell. 30 April 2001b, p. 51. [Interview with Maitama Sule, prominent Kano elder statesman, on politicians who might lead the North in 2003 presidential elections. Issue concerns whether Hausa-Fulani would back a northerner from a minority group, e.g., Atiku Abubakar, Federal Vice President.]

Askira, Aliyu (Kano). "Kano govt uncovers plot to destabilise the state." Daily Times, Tuesday, 15 May 2001, p. 5. [Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso asserts some disgruntled non-indigenes have hatched strategy to provoke violence around application of shari'a.]

Babarinsa, Dare. "The King and the State." Tell. 7 May 2001, p. 3. [Editorial asserting example of Oba Kayode Adetona, Awujale of Ijebuland, demonstrates staying power of traditional chiefs who exhibit political integrity. Notes many are assembly councils of extremely qualified individuals, and that most "modern" government leaders at all levels also have traditional titles. Chiefs will not disappear.]

CNN.com. "At least 100 dead in Nigerian gasoline pipeline explosion." 11 July 2000.

CNN.com. "Hostages in Nigeria released." 4 August 2000.

CNN.com. "Nigeria calm under night curfew imposed to stop ethnic clashes." 19 October 2000.

Daily Times. "Why Kogi won't adopt Sharia - Audu." Tuesday, 15 May 2001, pp. 1-2. [Muslim Kogi State Governor Prince Abubakar Audu explains why he will resist efforts to implement shari'a in Kogi State, centered on the junction of the Niger and Benue Rivers. He asked, "'How can we in this modern era of human rights permit the adoption of the Sharia?'" p. 2. His comments occurred against the backdrop of his government's efforts to make Kogi "State a home for all." This article indicates that the issue retains a potent symbolic capacity that often polarizes religious communities in Nigeria.]

The Economist. "Bloodier still." 19 October 2000.

Eke, Ugochukwu (Umuahia). "Markarfi blames crisis on unemployment." Daily Times, Tuesday, 15 May 2001, p. 5. [Kaduna State Governor E.H. Ahmed Markarfi asserts that depressed economy and grim economic prospects for unemployed youth must be seen as persistent underlying causes of violence.]

Farah, Douglas. "Nigerians await democracy's dividends." Washington Post Foreign Service, 27 April 2000, p A21.

Mbachu, Dulue. "Nigeria makes moves to stanch corruption." Washington Post, 17 August 2000.

Okafor, Tony (Awka). "Government sets code of conduct for Bakassi Boys." Daily Times, Tuesday, May 15, 2001, p. 32. [Anambra State Governor Chinwoke Mbadinuju outlines 36-point code intended to regulate activities of semi-official Anambra Vigilance Service (AVS), including ceasing their practices of reckless shooting and using ".machetes when checking vehicles so as not to intimidate drivers," committing to complying with leaders' orders, and operating within confines of the law. ]

Olonisakin, 'Funmi. "Democratic transition in Nigeria: will the military stay out of politics?" Africa Insight. Vol. 29, No. 1-2, 1999, 29-35.

Oyo, Remi. "Government rejects demand to rewrite basic laws." Inter Press Service. 21 February 2001.

Umar-Omale, Peter, and Carrice Ikwuegbu. "Police Blame Courts for Rising Crime Wave." This Day. Saturday, 5 May 2001, 1-2.

Vick, Karl. "Violent ethnic rivalries threaten Nigerian unity." Washington Post Foreign Service, 29 January 2000, p. A1.
 XVI. APPENDIX C: PERSONS INTERVIEWED

A. ABUJA
ANGELINI Mary
Assistant Program Officer, Africa
International Republican Institute (IRI)

BAGU, Chom
Project Manager
Office of Transition Initiatives
USAID

BAXTER, Joe C.
Country Director
International Foundation for Election Systems [IFES]

BITRUS, Dr. Pogu
Director, Defense and Security Studies
Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution

DANIELS, Ugo
Program Manager
Democracy and Governance Team
USAID

DAWSON, Kate
Deputy Programme Officer
Department for International Development (DFID)
British High Commission

DE SOTO, Lisa
Country Director
Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI)
USAID

EITOKPAH, Bose
Program Manager (Civil Society)
Democracy and Governance Team
USAID

EZE, Professor Osita C.
Director, Democracy and Development Studies
Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution

FOEHR, Mark C.
Resident Program Officer
International Republican Institute (IRI)

HART, Elizabeth, Ph.D.
Democracy and Governance Advisor
U.S. Agency for International Development

JACOBS, Yomi O.
Program Assistant
International Republican Institute (IRI)

JOHNSTON, Donald L.
Member
USAID/OTI/Nigeria Police Assessment Team
Consultant

KOKUMO, Chief F. O.
Director, Finance and Administration
Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution

MASON, John
Team Leader
USAID/OTI/Nigeria Police Assessment Team
(J Mason Associates)

MOSS, Mitchell
Political Officer
U.S. Embassy Office/Abuja

NZONGOLA-NTALAJA, Prof. Georges
Senior Adviser for Governance
United Nations Development Programme

OCHOCHE, Dr. Sunday
Director General
Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution

RAMSEY, Judge Henry, Jr. (Ret.)
Chief of Party
Nigeria Rule of Law Project
National Center for State Courts

SOOS, Helen E.
Member, USAID/OTI/Nigeria Police Assessment Team
Independent Senior Consultant, International Development

THOMAS, Philip
High Commissioner
British High Commission

UCHE, Emmanuel
Program Manager
Civil Society
USAID/Nigeria

UWECHUE, Raph, Ambassador
Special Presidential Envoy for Conflict Resolution
The Presidency

B. AKURE
POPOOLA, Abiodun
OPC, member
Osun State

ADESHOKAN, Evangelist Kunle
OPC, General Secretary, Co-founder

ADEYEFA, Chief Samuel Taiwao
OPC member
Lagos, Lagos State
CHARLES, Adegur Gbengu
OPC member

C. DUTSE
GALADIMA
Court official
(Emir of Dutse's older brother)
Dutse Emirate

LUMU, Rt. Rev. Yusuf I.
Anglican Church
Chairman/Jigawa State Branch
Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN)

MADAKI
Court official
Dutse Emirate

SANUSI, Sarki Nuhu Muhammadu
Emir of Dutse

D. IBADAN
ALBERT, Isaac Olawale, Ph.D
Senior Research Fellow
Consultant in Conflict Transformation
Institute of African Studies
University of Ibadan
CRESNET member

ADEKANYE, Professor J. 'Bayo, Ph.D
Department of Political Science
University of Ibadan

E. JOS
ABDULRAHMAN, Imran
Secretary, Conflict Management Committee
University of Jos
Executive Director
Center for Peace Initiative and Development (CEPID)

GALAM, Z.D.
Sociologist
Registrar
University of Jos

MANGUWAT, Monday
Acting. Vice Chancellor
University of Jos

OKOYE, Professor Z.S.C.
Biochemistry Department
Chairman, Linkages Committee (External Relations)
University of Jos

ONYEKAJ, Professor Johnnie
Dean, School of Postgraduate Studies
University of Jos

F. KADUNA
BARDE, Danjuma S., His Royal Highness Honorable Sa Gbagyi of Kaduna

BAYERO, Zainab
Executive Director
Zee Karatu Workshop
CRESNET Member

DANGALA, Simon, Reverend
Christian Muslim Forum
Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN)/Sokoto State
CRESNET Member

ISYAKU, Bashir
Director, Even Development Projects (EDP)
CRESNET Member

MABERRA, Hussein Yusuf
Center for Comparative Religious Studies and Propagation, Sokoto
Christian Muslim Forum
CRESNET Member

MAHMUD, Habib Umar
Acting Director (Religion Affairs)
Bureau for Religious Affairs (Islamic Matters)
Office of the Executive Governor

ONOISE, Denys
Senior Program Officer
Strategic Empowerment and Mediation Agency (SEMA)
CRESNET Member

SUKOLA, Hon. Justice Bashir U.
High Court of Justice
Kaduna State Judiciary.

YERO, E. Buba
Permanent Secretary
Bureau for Religious Affairs (Christian Matters)
Office of the Executive Governor

WUYE, Evangelist James Movel
Joint National Coordinator
Inter-Faith Mediation Centre
(Muslim Christian Dialogue Forum)

YAMAH, Mohammed
Executive Director
Prime Peace Project (PPP)
CRESNET Member

G. KANO
ABIAHU, Ike
Director
Seat of Wisdom International School
(Christian primary and secondary school)

AHMED, Rakia Sani
Program Manager
USAID/OTI
 ALHAMDU, Jummai
Program Manager
USAID/OTI

COBHAM, Kury
USAID/OTI

DAGACIN DAKATA
Chief
Dakata Urban District
Metropolitan Kano

DANTIYE, Halilu
Executive Secretary, Center for Democratic Journalism  (CDJ)
Editor, Weekend Triumph
Kano State Government Newspaper
Declined to join CRESNET

GAMBO, Mohamed
Secretary of Hisba Committee
Tarauni Ward

ISYAKU, Umar
NGO Resource Center

KIRU, Hajia Amina
Executive Director
Hajia Atine Sule Association
Sharia Commission

NNANDI, Igwe, Barrister and His Royal Highness
Eze (Sarki) Ndi Igbo
Ibo Community Leader
Kano State

OJO. G. A., Reverend
Chairman, Kano State Branch
Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN)

SULE, Maitama
Ex-Ambassador to the United Nations

WILLIAMS, General Ishola (Ret.)
Secretary General, Transparency Nigeria
African Strategic and Peace Research Group (AFSTRAG)

YAMAH, Mohammed
Executive Director
Prime Peace Project (PPP)
CRESNET Member

YULA, Sheikh Malan Tijjani
Chief Iman
Murtala Mohammed Juma'a Mosque

H. KATSINA
Magajin Gari E.H. Abdulmumuni Kabir Usuman
District Head for Katsina City
(Emir's eldest son)

KWASU, J. S.
Rt. Reverend
Anglican Communion
Diocese of Katsina
Chairman, Christian Association of Nigeria

SULAIMAN, Sagir
Coordinator, CAREFOR
Katsina Reforestation Campaign

I. LAGOS
ADEGBITE, Dr. Lateef
Secretary-General
Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs
Adegbite and Co-Solicitor and Advocate
Lagos, Lagos State

ADELUSI-ADELUYI, Prince J.A.
National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies
Lagos, Lagos State

BECERRA, Carmenza
OTI/Nigeria - Lagos
Louis Berger, Inc.

CHUKWUMA, Innocent
Executive Director, Center for Law Enforcement Education
Lagos, Lagos State

DAN ABIA, Christine
Programs Manager
OTI/Nigeria
Lagos, Lagos State

DAY, Dick
Senior Advisor
Strategic Initiatives
Africa Development Foundation

FASHEUN Dr. Frederick
Founder AND Leader
Oodudwa People's Congress (OPC)
Lagos, Lagos State

FLOOK, Nathan D.
United States Consulate General, Economic Affairs
Lagos, Lagos State

HERRINGTON, James E.
United Nations Foundation
Washington, DC

LEVINTOW, Nicholas J.
Second Secretary/Labor Attache
United States Consulate GeneralLagos, Lagos State

MANGIN-NWANKWO, Sharon
Project Director, Democracy and Governance Program
US Embassy
Lagos, Lagos State
OHAZURIKE, Eze H. N.
Igbo Chief, Lagos State

OMIYI, Basil Efoise
External Relations Director
Shell Petroleum Development Corporation of Nigeria.
Lagos, Lagos State

OSINGBAJO, Yemi
Attorney-General, Lagos State
Lagos, Lagos State

OWASANOYE, Prof. Bolaji
Human Development Initiatives
Nigerian Institute of Advanced Legal Studies, University of Lagos Campus
CRESNET member
Lagos, Lagos State

OWAZURIKE
Eze-Ndigbo of Lagos State
(leader of the Igbo)
Lagos, Lagos State

SHOPADE, Joseph Ola
OTI/Nigeria - Lagos.

STROZIER, Maisha
Deputy Country Director
The Centre for Development and Population Activities
Lagos, Lagos State

WALKER, Tjip
Deputy Country Representative
OTI/Nigeria
Louis Berger, Inc.

WENDT, Amy R.
US Embassy, Third Secretary
Lagos, Lagos State

LOBURO
ADEBOYE, Pastor E.A.
General Overseer
The Redeemed Christian Church of Christ
Redemption City, Loburo

PORT HARCOURT, RIVERS STATE
AMAKIRI, S.F.
Friends of the Niger Delta Environment (FEPEN)

ANTHONY, George-Hill
National President
Commonwealth of Niger Delta Youths for Peace

ARCHIBONG, Professor Patrick
Department of Economics
University of Ihjo
Uyo, Akwa Ibom State
 ASHBY, Judith
OTI/Nigeria - Port Harcourt

BOER, Wiebe
Doctoral Candidate in African History
Yale University
Fullbright Fellow
Jos, Plateau State

CHRISTIAN, Akani
Executive Director
Institute of Academic Freedom in Nigeria (IAFN)
Port Harcourt, Rivers State

EPELLE, Peace
The Centre for Responsive Politics
Port Harcourt, Rivers State

FELANA, Femi
Center for Advanced Social Science
Port Harcourt

ISAAC, Ikenna Ebubechukwu
Dessney Law Firm

J. WASHINGTON, D.C.
BROWN, Melissa
USAID
(Formerly Democracy and Governance Officer USAID/Nigeria)

DOUGLAS, Jennifer J.
Policy Analyst

JOSHI, Ajit V.
Team Leader
Conflict Prevention, Mitigation, Resolution/Reconciliation
Office of Sustainable Development
Bureau for Africa [AFR/SD/CMR]
USAID

LEAVITT, Bob
Team Member
Conflict Prevention, Mitigation, Resolution/Reconcialiation
Office of Sustainable Development
Bureau for Africa [AFR/SD/CMR]
USAID

LEWIS, Peter M.
Woodrow Wilson Fellow
Woodrow Wilson Center

LYONS, Terrence
Institute of Conflict Analysis and Resolution
George Mason University

PADEN, Professor John
George Mason University
 RENISON, Bill
Senior Advisor
Humanitarian Assistance
USAID

K. YENAGOA
(South-South Region: Participants at CRESNET Zonal TOT, Yenagoa, Bayelsa State)
ASINI, Godwin
Urhobo Progressive Union
CRESNET member

DADIOWEI, Tarilayefa E.
Secretary General
Gbaran Oil Fields' Landlords Association
CRESNET member
Yenagoa, Bayelsa State

DIRI, Douye
Center for Youth Development
CRESNET member
Yenagoa, Bayelsa State

EKANEM, Grace
Founder and National Coordinator
Women's Affirmative Action Group
CRESNET member
Calabar, Cross River State

ERE-IMANAGHA, Vivien
Representative
Yenagoa State House Assembly
CRESNET member
Yenagoa, Bayelsa State

ESEZOBO, Obaseme
Faculty of Law,
University of Benin
CRESNET member
Benin City, Edo State

FELANA, Femi
Center for Advanced Social Science
CRESNET member
Port-Harcourt, Rivers State

IHEJIRIKA, Samie
SEMA, Executive Director
National Chair
CRESNET

ISAAC, Ikenna Ebubechukwu
Dessney Law Firm
CRESNET member
Port Harcourt, Rivers State

ITOJE, Duke O.
University of Benin
National Anti-Cult Movement of Nigeria (NANCUM)
CRESNET member
Benin City, Edo State

JAMES, Minika
Deputy National Coordinator
Women's Affirmative Action GroupCRESNET member
Calabar, Cross River State

OBIOHA, Ego
Managing Director
Baybridge Luxury Hotel (Cedarwoods)
Kpansia, Bayelsa State

OGUN, Dr. George
CRESNET member

OJOKO, Eneni
Federacion Internacional de Abogados, Bayelsa Sate
Bayelsa State

OLOTEWO, Nancy
CRESNET member

OSAREREN, Iyamu
Urhonigbe Unity Club
CRESNET member
Benin City, Edo State

TANTUA, Ben
Centre for Participatory Development (CENPADEV)
Yenagoa, Bayelsa State

UMOH, Abraham Akpan
President
Macpee Nigeria Limited,
CRESNET, National Secretary
Uwo, Akwa Ibom State

WALSON-JACK, Didi
Chairperson
Federacion Internacional de Abogados, Bayelsa Sate
Chief Legal Drafter
Bayelsa State House of Assembly
Yenagoa, Bayelsa State
 XVII.
XVIII. APPENDIX D: METHODOLOGY

The conflict assessment was conducted April 30-May 18, 2001, by a four-person team:
Wendy Marshall, USAID/Global/DG Center, democracy specialist;
Mary Hope Schwoebel, conflict resolution specialist;
James T. Thomson, West African institutional specialist and team leader; and
James S. Wunsch, professor of political science and Nigeria specialist.

Investigative methods used included a literature and document review coupled with individual interviews. Documents consulted are listed in the bibliography (Appendix B). Interviews were held with 125 people in 13 locations (Appendix C, Persons Interviewed). Persons interviewed included representatives of USAID/Washington, USAID/Nigeria, USAID/OTI/Washington, USAID/OTI/Nigeria, USAID implementing partners in Nigeria, US Embassy in Nigeria, Nigerian federal government, state government, local government, judiciary, youth groups, ethnic organizations, religious organizations, university faculty, NGOs, media, industry, and other donors. Interviews were held in the following locations:

South South zone (Yenagoa, Bayelsa State; Port Harcourt, Rivers State);
Southwest zone (Lagos and Loburo, Lagos State; Ibadan, Oyo State; Akure, Ondo State);
Northwest zone (Katsina, Katsina State; Kano, Kano State; Kaduna, Kaduna State; Dutse, Jigawa State);
North Central zone (Jos, Plateau State) and the Federal Capitol Territory (Abuja); and
Washington, DC.

The team did not reach either the Southeast or Northeast zones.

In the course of their consultations, the team sought to understand conflict dynamics in Nigeria by identifying and exploring:

Underlying sources of conflict;
Current issues;
Parties to conflicts;
Interests and needs of the parties;
Roles played by various parties; and
Relationships between parties.

Particular attention was paid to how local conflict issues are connected to policy issues at state and national levels.

In addition to investigating conflict dynamics, the team recorded both donor and Nigerian initiatives to mitigate conflict, noting opportunities, challenges, and outcomes.

On the basis of their understanding of conflict dynamics, history of interventions, and USAID strategic objectives, the team made recommendations on how to prioritize conflicts, how to intervene programmatically in priority conflicts to address current issues and underlying sources, and how to build Nigerian conflict management capacity. Additional recommendations were made for linkages to USAID programming in economic growth, police, justice, civil society, and civil-military relations.
 XIX. APPENDIX E: BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON KEY AREAS

A. A. Religious Conflict in Kaduna State

After the Kaduna religious riots of February and May 2000-riots that cost at least 2,000 lives-the Executive Governor of the State, El Haji Ahmed Makarfi, pursued two related strategies to calm the situation. Some background is necessary to understand the significance of Markarfi's moves.

Usman Dan Fodio's jihad, or religious war, 1804-1810, ended with the establishment of the Sokoto sultanate. This Islamic theocratic empire extended from what is now extreme northwest Nigeria in a broad swath southeast into contemporary northwest Cameroon. Armed forces of the emirate of Zazzau, based in present-day Zaria in north-central Kaduna State, continued intermittent warfare and slave raiding in the southern half of contemporary Kaduna State, an area populated by some 15 Middle Belt minority ethnic groups. The emir claimed suzerainty over this area.

After colonization, a number of the minorities, including the Gbagyi, who are the indigenes (first occupants) of the area where Kaduna city developed, converted to Catholicism and various Protestant sects. The emir of Zazzau, however, continued to assert his jurisdiction over Middle Belt minorities.

Following the adoption of the shari'a criminal code by Zamfara State in October 1999, northern Muslim political and religious leaders established the Supreme Council for Sharia in Nigeria (SCSN), an organization designed to promote adoption of shari'a in other Nigerian states. Christian groups in the southern half of the country and in the Middle Belt reacted sharply to what they perceived as a Muslim, northern effort to lay the foundations for an Islamic, theocratic state.

Kaduna city burst into rioting in February 2000, when some Christian leaders urged their followers to publicly protest against the threat that the state government would impose shari'a law in the state. A largely Catholic march through Muslim neighborhoods elicited the predictable violent response. Unemployed youth of both religions joined in the battles that amounted to efforts at the religious equivalent of ethnic cleansing in a number of neighborhoods within the city. Violence erupted again in May 2000. The combined death toll on both sides in the two riots exceeded 2,000.

In the wake of these riots, President Olusegun Obasanjo visited the state and urged Governor Makarfi to establish a peace and reconciliation committee. That eventually occurred with material support and lobbying from an NGO, Even Development Group. But Christian fears remained. To address them, Makarfi followed a strategy of according a number of ethnic groups in the heavily Christian southern half of the state recognition as chieftaincies independent of the Muslim Emirate of Zazzau. He reinforced this political innovation-for which Middle Belt groups had long lobbied-by in effect recognizing the "customary" laws of each one of these groups and empowering the new chieftaincies to organize their own "customary" judicial systems in addition to the Islamic shari'a and state magistrate court systems. This system may lead to a certain confusion and conflict of laws cases among the three systems, but it offers the great advantage of providing Christians and animists in the new chieftaincies with an effective shield against the application of the shari'a legal code, much less its criminal elements, within their jurisdictions.

The Catholic Archbishop of Kaduna, P.Y. Jatau, strongly approves Governor Makarfi's efforts to defuse the situation. Moreover, he supports Governor Makarfi, whom he sees as a fair, honest, and equitable broker of political interests working for the good of the common man, and believes the new state three-law legal system will contribute to peace in Kaduna.

Makarfi has moved forward with efforts to promote reconciliation, in part through establishing public offices, attached to the governorate, for Muslim and Christian affairs. He has also made significant efforts to promote development within the state jurisdiction by investing in rehabilitation of rural roads, rural electrification, and so on. Makarfi's strategy suggests that he takes seriously the importance of attacking the economic underpinnings of religious violence in the state, and that he intends to do this partially by injecting new economic resources into rural areas to create opportunities and incentives for both Muslim and Christian youth to remain in their home areas, rather than migrating into the state's urban centers.

B. B. Kano: Muslim/Christian Relations

The situation in Kano is both simpler and more complex than that in other locations in northern Nigeria. Although the vast majority of the population is Muslim (perhaps as much as 90-95 %), many different Islamic sects coexist in the city. The traditional sects, all of which are followers of Sunni Islam, include the Qadriyya, the Tijaniyya, the Tariqa, the Malikiya, the Ahmadiya, and the Islamiya. Another group is the Da'awa (some respondents used the term to designate a separate sect, some used it as a synonym for hisba-the group that enforces shari'a provisions-while still others used it to denote the preaching arm of the hisba).

The newer and more fundamentalist sects include the Izala and the Shiites. The Izala in particular tend to attract educated young people, both men and women. The Shiites and sometimes the Izala are said to oppose applying shari'a in Nigeria until such time as religious leaders have taken over political leadership of the country. Whereas the hisba includes representatives of all sects, in Kano it tends to be dominated by Izalas and Da'awa. One respondent reported that just as NGOs have sprung up to take advantage of opportunities created by Western donors' calls for civil society partners, so Muslim sects have arisen in response to the calls for faith-based partners issued by Islamic governments and religious groups from Libya, Sudan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab countries.

Some respondents referred to themselves as liberal Muslims. These individuals are generally opposed to a nonsecular form of government and the implementation of shari'a. The parallel governance structures-traditional and elected-are less cohesive than they appear initially. The Emir of Kano is by all reports relatively liberal, as is at least one of his wives, who is educated and has traveled. No one is sure the extent to which the Governor is liberal, because for political reasons he is reported to be "keeping quiet."

Respondents reported that the hisba in Kano plays primarily an educational role, and is designed to generate Islamic "enlightenment," rather than policing and punishing infractions of the shari'a code. Both a traditional, neighborhood leader and an educated, young Izala, the latter Secretary of his neighborhood hisba, described a type of hisba that is a far cry from the militant and violent Muslim youth described by Christian southerners. Both men described recruitment criteria-the former informal, the latter formal-that would appear to bar undisciplined, aggressive youth from entering the hisba. To be admitted to the hisba, a man or woman (both are eligible) must meet the following formal recruitment criteria by being:

A member of an ethnic group indigenous to the state (this criterion has recently been eliminated from the list, but its use initially reflects the persistent links between ethnicity and religion);
A practicing Muslim;
At least primary school educated, whether Western or Islamic;
Employed or otherwise legitimately occupied in earning a livelihood; and
Married or single.

Hisba members volunteer about an hour a week of their time. During that hour, they circulate in their neighborhood seeking solutions to social problems. The Secretary of the neighborhood hisba provided several cases that highlight the roles hisba members have played in this regard. These related mainly to the issue of insecurity. Judicial corruption engenders insecurity because offenders have been able, in the past, to buy their release from custody. Such offenders behave with impunity, abusing the rights of others in the society. To combat this phenomenon, hisba members monitor the judicial process from arrest through sentencing to ensure that judges impose sentences appropriate to crimes committed. The most serious threat to security, however, is the presence of the 'Yan daba, organized neighborhood youth gangs who engage in gang warfare and routinely rob, assault, rape, and murder citizens unfortunate enough to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. For the most part members of the 'Yan daba employ knives or sticks, rather than firearms. They can be either Christian or Muslim, but they are not faith-based. Rather, they are disenchanted, disenfranchised young men, without educational or employment prospects.

When one of these youths causes trouble-for example, by engaging in public drunkenness-the hisba will first go to the neighborhood traditional leader to identify the individual's parents. They then appeal to the parents to exert greater control over the child. If hisba members learn that lack of employment or educational opportunities explains the individual's antisocial behavior, they attempt to find solutions. For example, the hisba Secretary mentioned one case in which members of the hisba had pooled their money to send a young man to school, and another in which the hisba had matched several young people in minor trouble with a businessman seeking employees. If a young person is caught again, however, especially if the economic reasons for misbehavior have been addressed, than the hisba turn the individual over to the police. According to the respondent, it is left up to the police to determine whether to bring the accused before the Alkali (shari'a court) or the Magistrate's court. The hisba has also intervened in gang warfare by bringing the leaders of gangs together to resolve conflicts and solve common problems.

Part of the resentment felt for "settlers" (members of southern tribes, as opposed to "indigenes") residing (and often born in) Kano stems from indigenes' feeling that settlers are simply in Kano to make money. Settlers are perceived to be unwilling to adapt to the culture of Kano and to reject the values of Kano's indigenous population. Indigenes see settlers as failing to commit or contribute to the community in either material or nonmaterial senses. On top of this, indigenes believe settlers look down on the indigenous Kano population. To some extent, Muslims feel marginalized on their own turf, which fuels their sense of grievance against the southern Christian settlers in their midst.

Similarly, Kano counts a large number of Christian denominations. Christians span the full spectrum, from militant born-again proselytizers to merely born-into-Christianity liquor sellers. The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) members whom team members interviewed may not have represented either extreme, but they expressed clear determination to continue their religious missions, even if martyrdom might be the price of doing so.

Pastors of three different Protestant sects, one of whom is the Chairman of the Kano State Chapter of CAN, were among the respondents. They described their sense of powerlessness in the face of what they perceive to be discrimination on the part of the local authorities. They have engaged in backroom conversations with both the Council of Ulamaa and the Shari'a Commission. Local government officials promised them that they would receive permission to build churches. However, they have continually encountered "Catch 22" provisions (e.g., Kano government officials assert that they cannot issue a church construction permit until a specific form is completed, submitted, and approved, but the form in question is never available). Christian congregations have been provided with an area on the outskirts of the city, well away from Kano Muslim areas, in which they are to build churches. The authorities have assured church leaders that if they build in these areas, the authorities will guarantee them protection; however, if they build in Muslim areas, the authorities will be unable to guarantee their security. The respondents expressed their recognition of their own powerlessness in the face of an overwhelming Muslim majority in Kano and conceded that they are in a position of having "to trade justice for peace."

OTI has supported dialogue between Christian groups and liberal Muslims in Kano and elsewhere in Nigeria. But achieving sustainable peace requires engaging the more mainstream Muslims-the majority in Kano-in dialogue to work toward obtaining their involvement and commitment to a solution. The Chief Iman of one of the main Friday prayer mosques in Kano quickly pointed out in an interview that he is "conservative." However, he also said that if he were approached properly (following proper protocol and with transparency), that he would be willing to participate in USAID-sponsored training or dialogues. Nevertheless, there is considerable suspicion about US government motivations in Kano, so a significant amount of preliminary relationship building and trust building will be essential. One way to accomplish this is to ensure that the majority of USAID national staff are from the region and are members of the indigenous, mainstream Muslim community.

C. C. Southwest: Ethnic-Economic Rivalries

As in other regions of Nigeria, conflicts in the Southwest tend to spring from social and economic roots. Such disputes are potent because they can easily be transformed into ethnic conflicts if people on opposite sides of an issue are predominately of different ethnic groups. Defining a conflict in ethnic terms greatly increases the potential for destabilization through overt violence, loss of life, property damage, and then generation of "ricochet riot" conflicts elsewhere in the country. Ricochet riots can go either way-a conflict in the North may spark one in the Southwest, or one in the Southwest may spark a riot in the North. Several factors underlie these conflict dynamics: a strong sense of Yoruba grievance against the North; strong Yoruba organizational capacity; the dominance of ethnic identity over religious identity; poor governance; and poverty, economic decline, and congestion.

The strong sense of grievance among Yoruba against the North and resultant tension between Yoruba and Hausa-Fulani predisposes people of the Southwest to redefine economic and social disputes in terms of ethnicity. Although mistrust between the two ethnic groups has deep historical roots, its current intensity can be traced to Ibrahim Babangida's annulment of the 1993 election won by the Yoruba candidate, M.K.O. Abiola, and Abiola's subsequent imprisonment and death. Many Yoruba people feel the 1993 election was the most free and fair Nigeria has ever held. In their view, its annulment by the northern military ruler proved that the North would never let a Yoruba be president, a feeling that has not been assuaged by election of the Yoruba Olusegun Obasanjo, for he was viewed as a pawn of northern leaders.

Added to this sense of grievance is general frustration and anger with poor governance and the resultant economic decline, decaying infrastructure, congestion, and sharp drop in standards of living. These conditions make the situation ripe for any dispute to escalate into violent conflict.  This was seen in Lagos in October 2000, when members of the Yoruba Oodudwa People's Congress (OPC) vigilantes suspected a Hausa of harboring a criminal. The dispute became ethnically polarized and led to riots. Comparable disputes have flared over rights to stalls in markets, levying local fees on vehicles registered in other states, parking rights for tanker trucks, and respect for ethnic holidays.

Conflicts in the Southwest can also be sparked by violence in the North when Yorubas are on one side and Hausa-Fulani on the other. In such instances, what may have begun as religious conflict is redefined along ethnic lines, as was the case when violence erupted over the introduction of shari'a in Kaduna. It is important to note that religious conflict, as such, does not occur in the Southwest. Yorubas follow either Islam or Christianity, with many families counting members in both faiths. Religious tolerance is deeply entrenched in Yoruba culture. When violence in the North sparks violence in the Southwest, the conflict becomes defined along ethnic lines, not religious ones. Those involved attack on the basis of ethnicity, readily visible in the case of those who bear tribal marks, without pausing to determine whether Hausa victims are Moslem or Yoruba victims Christians.

D. D. Conflict in the South South (Delta)

Although many observers of the South South think primarily of youths invading oil company properties when they think of conflict there, in fact the roots of South South conflicts lie deeper in history and in the contemporary social circumstances of the area. Contemporary history of the Delta can be summarized as economic decline and broken promises. Historically, Delta communities prospered as "middlemen" controlling trade with the interior, particularly palm oil products and slaves. But with the development of the colonial state and independence, the region experienced a steady decline and stagnation, for no new sources of wealth developed there to replace these activities. More recently, the failure of the early independent Nigerian government to follow through on a promise to treat the Delta as a special development area, the steady reduction in the share of oil royalties that states in the Delta have received, and, finally, the habitual disregard of state needs by non-indigenous military state governors, continued and worsened Delta problems. The FGRN's neglect of the Delta's development (roads, schools, electricity, and health services all ended well inland before reaching coastal communities), Nigeria's overall economic decline since the mid-1980s, and the tendency of educated Delta youths to leave the area, have confirmed its status as an economic backwater. The people who remained behind simply lacked prospects elsewhere.

Today, the complexity of issues and number of stakeholders involved exacerbate South South problems. The Delta, in part because of its riverine/swamp topography, has historically been politically extremely fragmented, and subject to frequent and at times violent disputes over land and fishing rights, as well as over traditional leaders' political jurisdictions. These all lead to cycles of "revenge violence." As more powerful weapons became available in the Delta in the mid- and late-1990s, disputes became more violent. Youth gangs became more powerful who were willing and able to protect their villages and elders. As democratic competition returned in 1998-1999, some of these same youths took up a new line of activity, paid disruption of campaign events, and/or provided candidates protection from such unwanted attentions. Finally, traditional leaders have lost much credibility and respect as they have been corrupted by payments from the military government and the oil companies.

In this culture of cynicism about government, economic stagnation and hopelessness, historical political fragmentation, and low-grade violent conflict, pre-existing political fragmentation became institutional disintegration. Small groups of youths with weapons went unchallenged and found oil companies easy targets for hold-up and ransom. As the oil companies paid off the first gangs, others were inspired and soon followed suit. Throughout the 1990s, incidents of youth gangs extorting payments from oil companies and engaging in violence escalated, until they leveled off and began dropping in 1999.

What might turn this area into a more fruitful development path? Already oil companies are trying to reduce their exposure to opportunistic attack by offering more valuable rewards to communities that "partner" with them for broader scale and in fact more costly public-good type improvements. However, such investments are unlikely to alter the competitive and fragmentary dynamic among communities. Oil company efforts are still largely single-community focused and relatively limited in scale and coverage.

Something is needed to encourage multiple and historically competing/conflicting communities to start working together, to bring more moderate and mature leaders back into the centers of decision making, to co-opt or marginalize violent youths, and to find constructive and promising avenues of activity for a currently "lost generation." If the promised 13% royalties on oil production are actually paid to the states and spent in the Delta, and if the new Nigeria Delta Development Corporation (NDDC) comes on line, they might offer enough funds to leverage meaningful local cooperation in the development and implementation of "area development plans." Should this occur, USAID might well find helping them, via conflict mediation and institutional development, to be an excellent "target of opportunity," with payoffs for both its governance and economic development strategic objectives.




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