Military

January 12, 2005

PA ELECTION:  VICTORIOUS ABBAS MUST WALK A 'PRECARIOUS TIGHTROPE'

 

KEY FINDINGS

 

**  President-elect Abbas' win opens an "unexpected window of opportunity" for peace.

**  Israel "must adopt a flexible attitude" through "substantial and visible" gestures.   

**  Abbas should "act decisively" to "neutralize extremist groups."

**  Rejectionists dub Abbas an Israeli-American "stooge" who won an illegitimate vote.

 

MAJOR THEMES

 

'A rare glimmer of hope'--  Global dailies described the "overwhelming victory" for the "moderate and pragmatic" Abbas as the start of an "era of hope" for peace.  The "clear mandate" for Mahmoud Abbas reflected a "clear desire among the Palestinians for moderation," according to Thailand's independent Nation.  The UAE's expatriate-oriented Gulf Today agreed that "there is a real chance to start a new chapter" after the vote, which "highlighted the political maturity" of Palestinians and "can serve as a model for the whole Arab world."  Several papers warned that "skepticism is still appropriate"; Canada's conservative National Post judged the world media's "unbounded enthusiasm...a bit premature."

 

'The ball is now in Israel's court'--  Outlets urged Israel to make "bold concessions" after Abbas' success.  Germany's left-of-center Berliner Zeitung said Israel "must be willing to make compromises" because now the question of peace "is in the hands of Sharon."  The elite Jordan Times succinctly declared that "now it is Israel's turn to reciprocate."  Muslim and leftist writers demanded the U.S. "expedite the peace process" and "drag Israel to the negotiating table" by means of "vigorous and sustained pressure" on Sharon.  The West Bank's official Al-Hayat Al-Jadida called on the U.S. to "make Israel hew to the roadmap," joining other dailies that called on the U.S. to "force Israel to change its attitude."

 

Strong international support 'indispensable'--  Outlets agreed Abbas faces "a plethora of challenges."  The "pragmatic realist" must "convince...radicals to stop their cowardly attacks" while avoiding a possible "internal backlash."  The liberal Sydney Morning Herald noted the need to "reform the corrupt, ramshackle" PA.  Others counseled that Abbas "clearly and urgently needs Israeli and international assistance."  Israel's conservative Jerusalem Post warned that aid to the PA "must be tightly linked" to ending terror and democratic reforms, but India's pro-BJP Pioneer asserted Abbas "cannot be expected to curb Hamas overnight."

 

A 'totally engineered' election--  Hardline Muslim observers blasted the "Israeli-American determination to nullify Palestinian rights," adding that Abbas is obeying "foreign dictates at the expense of the freedom, dignity and independence" of Palestinians.  Jordan's semi-official Al-Rai vituperated that "democracy must never be used as the starting point of national submission," joining editorialists who said the world supports Abbas because he will "comply with American and Israeli conditions."  Syria's government-owned Al-Thawra agreed that an Abbas-controlled PA "would grant the occupation approval" and create an agreement "tailored to fit Israeli-American specifications."

 

Prepared by Media Reaction Branch (202) 203-7888, rmrmail@state.gov

 

EDITOR:  Ben Goldberg

 

EDITOR'S NOTE:  Media Reaction reporting conveys the spectrum of foreign press sentiment.  Posts select commentary to provide a representative picture of local editorial opinion.  Some commentary is taken directly from the Internet.  This report summarizes and interprets foreign editorial opinion and does not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Government.  This analysis was based on 181 reports from 43 countries over 8 - 12 January 2005.  Editorial excerpts are listed from the most recent date.

 

EUROPE

 

BRITAIN:  "An Election That Offers A Rare Chance For Some Positive Thinking About The Middle East"

 

An editorial in the center-left Independent read (1/11):  "This election has given the lie to the commonly-held prejudice that Arabs and democracy are somehow incompatible.  Many observers remarked on the civic pride and sense of responsibility shown by those who voted: the same pride in participation, we would note, that was shown by black South Africans in the first post-apartheid vote, in Afghanistan earlier this year, and in Ukraine last month."

 

"Victorious Abbas Now Faces His Real Test"

 

The conservative Daily Telegraph warned (1/11):  "The Palestinians are to be congratulated on holding as democratic an election as has been seen in the Arab world.  It is now up to Mr. Abbas to use the legitimacy that this exercise has given him to implement his verbal rejection of the armed struggle.  If he embarks on this dangerous task, it would be helpful if Israel, discreetly backed by Washington, were to offer carrots such as an easing of restrictions in the West Bank.  However, as Mr. Sharon reminded the victor yesterday, the trigger for any concessions must be action against terrorism."

 

"Hopeful Palestine:  But Real Hope Needs A Change In Israeli And U.S. Policy"

 

The independent Financial Times asserted (1/11):  "To give the Israelis security and the Palestinians justice means a Palestinian state on nearly all the West Bank and Gaza with Arab east Jerusalem as its capital.  The Sharon government believes the Gaza withdrawal will remove this prospect from the table.  For Mr. Abbas's election to mean anything, the U.S. and its allies need to persuade Israel otherwise."

 

"Still A Long Way From Peace"

 

The conservative tabloid Daily Mail observed (1/11):  "Mr. Abbas may have shrewdly positioned himself as an acceptable candidate to both his own electorate and the Israelis.  But he is a long-time associate of Arafat--and in his youth he once wrote an academic study in Moscow questioning the numbers killed in the Holocaust....  Ultimately it is only the Americans who have the power to pressurise both sides to negotiate seriously.  And unless they again become seriously involved as an honest broker, which at present seems unlikely there are few grounds for real optimism."

 

"President For Peace"

 

An editorial in the left-of-center Guardian read (1/10):  "The world's expectations cannot be confined to Mr. Abbas....  If violence is to end, Israel will have to take confidence-building steps - removing the roadblocks that make daily life so miserable and humiliating, ending closures and freeing prisoners.  The US, Britain and the EU should persuade Israel that such gestures are in its own best interests."

 

"Poll Of Hope:  A Glimmer Of Hope Arises In The Middle East"

 

The conservative tabloid Sun stated (1/10):  "As successor to the murderous and treacherous Yasser Arafat, [Abbas] offers the prospect of progress....  America and Israel believe they can do business with him.  It will be far from easy.  Abbas will have to calm the hotheads on his own side while facing massive distrust from Israelis."

 

"Early Dawn: The Palestinian Elections Offer A Glimmer Of Hope For Peace"

 

The conservative Times opined (1/10):  "Israel can bolster [Abbas's] new authority with measures to improve conditions in the occupied territories....  But Mr. Sharon's response will be determined largely by Mr. Abbas's initial moves.  He has signaled that he will keep Ahmad Qureia, the moderate Prime Minister, in office.  Both sides know there is a long, long way to go.  Yesterday's election was only a first step.  But it was in the right direction."

 

FRANCE:  "What Can We Fear, What Can We Expect?"

 

Alexandre Adler noted in right-of-center Le Figaro (1/12):  "A single question comes to mind: Will he succeed? We would like to say he will, but many other players, including the 'bad guys,' will have a say: Hezbollah, Teheran and Hamas....  Still, the biggest stumbling block may be Israel and those who are asking for too much too soon from Abbas. Palestinian officials can give a lot on security issues, through a subtle blend of force and cunning. Much can be asked of them, but nothing publicly."

 

"The Frailty Of A Great Hope"

 

Bernard Guetta said on government-run France Inter radio (1/11):  "It is not enough to acknowledge that hope for the settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has never been so great. One must also define under which conditions this measure of hope will become reality....  After the initial euphoria, the difficulties will begin to emerge....  Unless the world takes over the peace effort, this opportunity could become a missed opportunity. The U.S. and the EU must both act, but in what way? The urgency does not lie in trying to accelerate changes through an international conference; mentalities need time in order to adapt to changes. But meanwhile the U.S. and the EU must speak as one and reaffirm together during their February summit the objectives of the roadmap, including the creation of a Palestinian state and the recognition of Israel by the Arab world."

 

"Peace is Again Possible"

 

Pierre Rousselin held in right-of-center Le Figaro (1/10):  "Now that Palestine has elected a President who is not Arafat, peace with Israel is once again possible. At this stage we are speaking of a fragile hope, but a hope nevertheless. It is founded on the fact that Israel and the U.S. are ready to deal with Abbas...whose task is immense: namely he must succeed where Arafat failed....  The election of Abbas will have been the easiest part....  Now that he has been elected, Abbas's fate is very much in the hands of Sharon: he can make his work easier, or on the contrary more difficult....  In the meantime, the U.S. and Europe must grasp this unprecedented opportunity. We must salute this show of Palestinian democracy and help the newly-elected president. As well as convince Sharon not to oppose him."

 

"Sharon's Attitude Will Be Decisive"

 

Thomas de Rochechouart asserted in right-of-center France Soir (1/10):  "His lack of a rival has given Abbas a certain margin of maneuver to voice unpopular ideas such as ending the armed Intifada....  His success will depend on Israel's desire to collaborate with him....  Caught between Sharon and the armed rebellion, Abbas will be playing a difficult game. He will need to be convincing, or his position as a moderate will soon become impossible."

 

"A Unique Opportunity For The Peace Process"

 

Luc de Barochez wrote in right-of-center Le Figaro (1/10):  "The Middle East has entered into an era of hope....  President Bush, who does not have to worry about re-election, has a free hand to get more involved in the Middle East....  French FM Barnier has indicated that 'the new relationship' between the Americans and the Europeans, as illustrated by Chirac's visit to Washington in the near future and Bush's visit to Brussels on February 22, could serve as a 'lever' to get the peace process back on track....  But the election of Abbas must not raise inconsiderate hopes: he is after all Arafat's heir and not very popular in the occupied territories....  If the Americans and the Europeans do not commit themselves further, the disappointment will be on par with the hopes born of the election."

 

"A Window"

 

Gerard Dupuy noted in left-of-center Liberation (1/10):  "Western nations must hear the message sent by the Palestinians and accept their skepticism, expressed to them as well as to Mahmoud Abbas. He was elected without any real opposition, but with the firm demand that he get results. This means that if he is slow to achieve them, he will be held responsible....  The offer for a conference on the Middle East in London proves that Tony Blair is aware of the urgency of grasping the opportunity at hand, even if the conference is not the answer....  An unexpected window of opportunity has opened in the Middle Eastern impasse. The countdown is already on, before that window closes over the compromise which Abbas has linked to his election."

 

GERMANY:  "Euros Must Change"

 

Right-of-center Frankfurter Neue Presse opined (1/12):  "It is time for the Europeans to adjust the degree of their advice to the degree of their potency to assert their view [in the Middle East] without the Americans whom they despise so much. Currently their grandiose one-sidedness they have shown when looking at the Middle Eastern conflicts, the naiveté and the lack of responsibility they have shown when chatting about the bloody conflicts is damaging, rather than helping, peace.  For they allow Palestinian illusions, which the Palestinians are unable to meet with their own possibilities, to grow immensely and reach a degree where they are irreconcilable."

 

"Thorny Path To The Rose Garden"

 

Peter Münch said in center-left Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (1/12):  "Almost simultaneously with Mahmoud Abbas election, Israel got a functioning government.  The Palestinian voters and the Israeli parliamentarians in the Knesset gave both leaders a clear mandate.  They should find a way out of the senseless violence and find a path to a fair peace agreement.  The first steps of both sides are encouraging....  Even President Bush presents himself as a nostalgic visionary and is dreaming in the White House of an appearance in the Rose Garden where Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton sealed peace agreements for the Middle East....  But [both Israelis and Palestinians] still have to walk on a thorny path before they can reach their goals.  It will certainly not take long before the high-flying plans will get contact with a tough reality.  There are enough enemies to peace on both sides, and a tangle of problems.is to be unraveled before.  But the good news these days is that both sides have finally started doing so."

 

"Capable"

 

Right-of-center Ostthüringer Zeitung of Gera advised (1/12):  "We believe Abbas, unlike his predecessor Arafat, is capable of continuing his political path despite resistance.  But this also includes partners, and in 1993, Israel's ex-premier Rabin represented such a partner.  But in the meantime, the fronts have hardened.  Israel's government and the international community must grant Abbas an enormous trust bonus to show his people and the Arab neighbors that this is the only possible path to peace.  And this primarily includes the chance of an independent Palestinian state.  Basically both sides got where they were in Oslo in 1993."

 

"A Chance For Abbas"

 

Wolfgang Guenter Lerch commented in center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine (1/11):  "Given that former President Arafat always claimed that fair elections were not possible under the humiliating circumstances of the Israeli occupation, it was not natural that Palestinians cast their votes.   But they have gone to the ballots, and the vote was free and fair....  Israel now wants Abbas to put a stop to terrorism, and suicide bombings in particular.  But the newly elected president will only be successful in this difficult and dangerous battle with Hamas and Islamic Jihad if Israel contributes to the peace process....  Substantial and visible Israeli moves, which express the honest will to normalize relations and create enduring peace, would be helpful to accomplish this goal.  The beginning should be a clear relaxation of the occupation status.  In this respect, Sharon's withdrawal plan is a good prospect....  The removal from the Gaza Strip would be an important Israeli move that reaches out to Palestinians.  It should be coordinated with the new Palestinian leadership under Abbas and turned into a continuing bilateral process.  It is up to all sides involved to develop clever initiatives to revive and implement the existing plans....  Americans should pledge generous aid.  Arafat, who they snubbed in his later days, is dead, and Israel owes Washington a debt of gratitude after the U.S. toppled Israel's arch enemy Saddam."

 

"Small Steps"

 

Jacques Schuster observed in right-of-center Die Welt of Berlin (1/11):  "It is too early to hope for peace.  In the past, only one person would have had the power to shatter Palestinian illusions, which is a condition for a peace agreement.  This was Arafat--but he had no courage to do it.  Peace with Israel means, above all, to renounce the Palestinian desire for a right to return and to find compromises in the question of the capital.  Mahmoud Abbas has no power for such a policy, but this is not necessary now.  After his victory, a policy of small steps can be started."

 

"A Window To Peace"

 

Business-oriented Financial Times Deutschland of Hamburg editorialized (1/11):  "PLO leader Abbas' victory slightly opened a door for creating peace in the Middle East, which is a long awaited dream.  The next months will show whether Abbas and his Israeli counterpart Sharon will manage to push it wide open and walk through.  Given the smooth election, it is difficult to image the time after Arafat's death when the danger of chaos and civil war was looming.  The peaceful and democratic change of power is a great achievement of the Palestinian people.  It can serve as a model for the whole Arab world....  The chances for a new peace process have never been better.  Not just Palestinians have met international demands and held democratic elections, but also Israeli PM Sharon has taken the moderate Labor Party on board.  And in Washington, President Bush is ready again to engage in the Middle East.  Two months after Arafat's death, a new era can begin."

 

"Hope Is The Beginning"

 

Clemens Wergin wrote in centrist Der Tagesspiegel of Berlin (1/11):  "The U.S. must take the peace process under its control.  No president before has made so great a commitment like George W. Bush, who made the establishment of a Palestinian state the official U.S. policy.  His administration must now deal actively to realize this vision.  But this good will would be worthless if terror continues.   Abbas has made clear that he does not seek an armed conflict with radical groups.  He must now show that he can convince them with words.  When Palestinians vote their parliament on July 17, it is a good opportunity for Hamas and Jihad to become political parties.  In the past, they have always rejected to run in national elections.  Abbas is powerful enough to force them to make their mind up between politics or underground resistance.  The one thing that is clear is that there will be no Palestinian state if the terror goes on."

 

"The Duty Of The Enemy"

 

Tomas Avenarius noted in center-left Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (1/11):  "The only thing that has changed in the Middle East conflict so far is the death of the old and unreliable Palestinian leader Arafat.  His departure is a litmus test for Israelis and Americans, who blamed Arafat for the standstill of the negotiations and saw him as the personified problem for creating peace.  They now have a moral obligation to his successor.  The obligation is to put as much trust in the new president as possible.   But despite his clear victory, Abbas is not a strong man.  He has only gained power as an interim solution of the Fatah organization.  Hamas and Jihad, the forerunners of a radical Islamic opposition, have no interest at all in his success, and the economic situation in the Palestinian territories is deteriorating day by day.  Israelis continue to build the security wall across the West Bank, which is also a means to seize land....  The new Palestinian president Abbas has proved with the Oslo agreement that he is a politician one can talk to.  Let's grasp this opportunity.  Those who deny success to Abbas are paving the way for militant groups."

 

"Strike Carefully"

 

Silke Mertins said in business-oriented Financial Times Deutschland of Hamburg (1/10):  "In theory, many Palestinians still support the fight against Israel, but in reality, they want only one thing: better living standards.  But Mahmoud Abbas can create them only with the support of a new peace process.  Only a relaxation will result in greater freedom to move, in fewer checkpoints, in an unimpeded flow of goods and in more possibilities to work in Israel....  But Abbas will be able to implement the road map only if he gets control over the Islamists of Hamas and Islamic Jihad....  The roadmap obliges the Palestinian side to stop the violence of extremists. But even though part of the public is opposed to violence, it will not be easy to disarm activists....  That is why Abbas has to strike with kid gloves if he wants to avoid the anger of extremists being directed against him....  Therefore, the new government will first of all enter into talks with the militant forces to achieve a cease-fire.  During these talks, it will be important that Israel holds back with military actions and makes concessions to Abbas....  If the talks on a cease-fire do not come to an end, Abbas will have to take drastic measures to assert his authority.  By then, he must restructure his security forces and have them swear on the loyalty to the autonomous authority....  The perspective for peace for which many people now hope has many question marks.  Abbas is faced with a delicate task.  But the will and the experience are available.  And thus far, the change of power after Arafat's death has been more orderly structured and peaceful than many predicted before."

 

"Mahmoud Abbas And Hopes"

 

Felix Zimmermann noted in left-of-center Berliner Zeitung (1/10):  "Yesterday at the election, we heard so many Palestinians complaining about their situation.  They want to be free, and want to move freely in their own country from Nablus to Ramallah, between Bethlehem and Jerusalem without facing any problems.  They are pinning their hopes on Abu Mazen, and many believe him capable of talking with Israel and achieving progress.  One heard this but remained skeptical, because the same people have raised demands that Israel will never accept: the right of the four million refugees to return, and the establishment of Eastern Jerusalem with the Temple Mount as capital.  We wished that both sides would realize how traumatized they are.  Those who have understood this, must show patience with the other side, should not demand too much from the other side and must be willing to make compromises."

 

"Hopes"

 

Gemma Pörzgen contended in left-of-center Frankfurter Rundschau (1/10):  "The high voter turnout showed the great need of the people to take part in democratic processes, but the real test will follow in July when there are parliamentary elections....  With Abu Mazen's elections, many Palestinians hope for an improvement of their difficult situation.  But whether he will be able to achieve this, will depend not only on his capabilities but also on Israel's willingness to make concessions."

 

"Hope For Hercules To Come"

 

Tomas Avenarius filed for center-left Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (1/10):  "Great expectations always create problems for politicians.  That is why a task is waiting for Palestinian leader Abbas, which he is likely not to fulfill.  Arafat's successor is to create peace with Israel, he is to bring his people the long hoped for Palestinian state, get the militants under control, and stimulate the downtrodden economy....  But since Abbas is no Hercules, it would be better to subdue hopes right from the start....  That is why it is all the more important that Israel's Prime Minister Sharon plays the ball into Abbas's camp in such a way that he is able to catch it.  The Israeli demand for an end to violence as a precondition for talks will not be enough.  The occupation that has lasted for decades is the reason for the Palestinian violence.  As long as this does not change, the militants will continue to place bombs and fire [at Israelis].  The international community, above all the U.S., must exert massive pressure on Israel.  Otherwise, Mahmoud Abbas has failed as president, even before he has taken office."

 

"Harsh Words"

 

Center-right Neue Ruhr/Neue Rhein-Zeitung of Essen remarked (1/10):  "The harsh words with which he only recently demanded Jerusalem to be Palestine's capital and with which he promised militant Palestinian fighter protection can now be stored in the poison cabinet of the election campaigner.  Abbas was the favorite of the Americans, he is the man of a dialogue, and the Palestinians know that he can move something only in the immediate future.  This speaks for the sense of reality of the people who, as was predicted often before, did not go down in chaos and anarchy following Arafat's death....  Abbas is faced with a tightrope act and his place in the history books is totally open.  Hero of peace with Israel?  Arafat's failed heir?  It is solely up to him to determine his fate."

 

ITALY:  "Sharon: 'I Shall Meet Abu Mazen'"

 

Ugo Tramballi concluded in leading, business-oriented Il Sole-24 Ore (1/12):  "Yesterday, Ariel Sharon responded to Abu Mazen's extended hand from the day before, with a telephone call.  He congratulated the newly elected president and promised to meet with him soon....  Israel is a complex nation....  There has always been a rift between Israel's political world and civil society.  Even in the most difficult times, most of civil society has always favored a secure, honorable peace with the Palestinians, while political society has always opposed crucial compromises....  At this point, however, withdrawal from Gaza might also cause a rift within civil society.  A new right is growing, like all movements which defend national totems, inspired by the United States: those neo-cons who, in the November elections, secured almost half of the Jewish vote...for the Republicans.  Among President Bush's advisors, there are those who believe that Sharon has become too moderate and it is now time that the U.S. Administration say something positive about the settlements."

 

"Abu Mazen Extends His Hand To Israel"

 

Eric Salerno said in Rome-based centrist Il Messaggero (1/11):  "Enthusiasm may obscure but cannot obliterate reality.  Bush speaks of a new opportunity for peace and invites Abu Mazen to the White House....  Abu Mazen is a precarious leader.  Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, after 38 years of Israeli occupation, do not love him....  Some consider him a puppet of Israel and Washington....  Israelis remain...cautious, and it would be hard to blame them, considering what has happened in the last few years....  Palestinians voted for a man who is opposed to violence.  The ball is now in Sharon's court, who is also constrained by opposition from the right wing of his own party as well as extremists within the settler movement....  With a weak coalition, sustained thanks only to the leftist opposition and President Bush, [Sharon] is the only one with means to lead Israel towards peace by supporting Abu Mazen and what he represents."

 

"A Leader With A Kefiah On His Shoulders"

 

Fiamma Nirenstein remarked in centrist, influential La Stampa (1/11):  "Arafat and his kefiah have always been a symbolic...battle flag....  Fatah followers now wear it without pretense around their necks....  Abu Mazen wears it this way.  He maintains an image as a quiet technocrat, despite the fact he shared the [political] journey of Abu Amar [Arafat].  No one ever photographed him holding a weapon or in uniform, like Arafat.  However, his intentions are currently an enigma, the revelation of which is causing the world to hold its breath....  Is he Arafat's equivalent or his opposite?  His plan, including the return of refugees, the 1967 borders, Jerusalem as the capital, is identical to Arafat's plan.  However, one has the impression that we are at a turning point....  Abu Mazen is strengthened by the fact that the world bet that he would be an improvement, provided he follows a moderate line.  Ultimately, here is the crux of the problem: if the world doesn't help the Palestinians achieve their own State without, at the same time, forcing them to combat terrorism, Abu Mazen will be pushed towards the 'old kefiah' [Arafat's policy].  Israel would clearly concede a great deal only provided that bombs stop falling and buses exploding.  Europe must respect Abu Mazen by asking, in exchange for considerable aid, that he be the moderate leader he might want to become." 

 

"Hamas' Role Will Be The Decisive Test"

 

Franco Venturini wrote in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera (1/10):  "Pragmatic Abu Mazen's success revives hopes for a new, more constructive dialogue between Israelis and Palestinians, after Arafat's death....  A real resumption of dialogue with Jerusalem is not possible unless Abu Mazen is able to unify Palestinian security forces under his command and stop the violence against Israel....  Ariel Sharon wants to know whether Israel's sworn enemy will accept being integrated in this political process, thus ending Palestinian violence....  Such arguments underline the importance of future decisions of the U.S.--the only global power able to exert influence on both Israelis and Palestinians....  The U.S. has a double opportunity: to keep mediating between Israelis and Palestinians and to prove that the gloomy Iraqi adventure could also produce a positive effect....  And, as always, if the U.S. moves forward, Europe will immediately follow, trying to put on the table its established relationship with the Palestinians."

 

"And Now The Word Goes To Bush And Sharon"

 

Sandro Viola opined in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (1/10):  "The Palestinian elections occurred with sufficient regularity.  Moderate Abu Mazen was elected by a large majority of voters, and immediately after the results...a sense of euphoria began to spread everywhere, in Israel, Washington and Europe....  We should, however, be cautious because it could have to do with...an easy, precarious optimism, as in 2003 when Abu Mazen and Ariel Sharon shook hands...in the presence of George W. Bush pledging to implement the so-called roadmap, the peace plan which fell apart after only a few months....  It is now fundamental to understand what Bush and Sharon intend to do to support, not only in words, this new Palestinian leadership....  If Americans and Europeans are able to maintain a common strategy regarding the conflict, then a real and lasting truce will be possible." 

 

RUSSIA:  "Looking At Palestine A Different Way"

 

Sergey Strokan asserted in business-oriented Kommersant (1/11):  "Still swayed by the spirit of Arafat, the Palestinians nonetheless voted in a quite civilized manner, electing a new leader, and making the world gaze at them in wonder--it turns out they can do more than blasting Israeli buses.  They can gather stones, as well as scattering them.  Therein lies the importance of the Palestine elections.  At long last, the international community, dead tired of trying to surmount the insurmountable, has a glimpse of hope....  The desire to see a democratic Palestinian state next to the Israeli one was as great as to make U.S. President George Bush, drawing on his Russian colleague Vladimir Putin's Ukrainian experience, congratulate Mahmoud Abbas on his victory even before the official results of the elections were announced.   Curiously, George Bush, unlike his predecessor Bill Clinton, never showed much interest in the Middle East.  It was Clinton, not Bush, who dreamed of his legacy as a Middle Eastern peacemaker.  Vain dreams.  It looks now that George Bush can win that recognition, getting it with fewer pains."

 

"Abbas' Words Contrast With His Image"

 

Kseniya Svetlova reported in reformist Gazeta (1/11):  "To many Israelis hoping that the arrival of Abu Mazen would usher in a new era in Israeli-Palestinians relations, much of what he said during the election campaign, particularly his phrase about the 'Zionist enemy,' came as an unpleasant surprise.   Those words contrasted sharply with the image of Abu Mazen the liberal in Israel and the West.   Was it electoral rhetoric or the true face of the PLO leader?   Most probably, the truth lies in between. Mahmoud Abbas, one of the architects of the Oslo peace accords, is certain that talks are the only way for the Palestinians to get real results, and he is planning to renew the negotiations with Israel soon.   But that does not mean that Abu Mazen will give up the Palestinians' demands on the status of East Jerusalem, the dismantling of Israeli settlements, and the return of Palestinian refugees."

 

"Palestinians Elect A Moderate"

 

Boris Markov stated in youth-oriented Komsomol'skaya Pravda (1/11):  "It is essential that we concentrate on staying among the main sponsors of the Middle East settlement process.   There is a chance for that, as Moscow supported Abbas right after Arafat's death.   The Russian Foreign Ministry has stated that the Palestinians chose a political settlement in their relations with Israel.  But extremists in the Hamas leadership don't think so.   If Abbas copes with the radicals, Russia will win.   If not, Hamas will list Russia among the Americans' and Israelis' friends and open a new terrorist front against this country."

 

"It's Too Early To Tell"

 

Oleg Komotskiy wrote in reformist Novyye Izvestiya (1/11):  "The Palestine vote outcome...is the first victory for the George Bush Administration in the new year.   The United States got what it wanted.  But will that change the situation in the Middle East very much?   Willing as the new Palestinian leader is to stop violence, the chief issue, the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, seems insoluble yet.   The problem is not only the Palestinian radicals, but also the Israelis refusing to soften their stand.   Under the circumstances, the policies pursued by the United States may contradict one another.  On the one hand, a victory for Abbas is not quite what you would call a victory for the West.   Obviously, the White House will have to put some pressure on Israel to make it agree to a dialogue with Abbas without preliminary conditions and stop the construction of settlements on Palestinian territory.   On the other hand, new U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, known for her sympathy for Israel and tough stand on late Arafat's regime, will come into the picture as a new factor."

 

"Palestinians Hope For Objectivity"

 

Marianna Belen'kaya filed for reformist Izvestiya (1/11):  "The international community's chief concern now is to get the peace process revived.   The Palestinian leadership is ready to begin talks with the Israelis on the basis of the Road Map worked out by the 'quartet' of international mediators--the U.S., Russia, the EU and the UN.  The Israelis, for their part, are expecting the new Palestinian leader to start fighting terror in earnest....  The Palestinians badly need international support now, particularly where it comes to bringing pressure to bear on Israel.  They hope the mediators, including the United States, will be objective....  Time will show how things will go.  It is not ruled out that, as the world is looking forward to peace, it will end up with a new spiral of confrontation, with each side insisting on its own solution to the problem."

 

AUSTRIA:  "Hope Mixed With Reservation"

 

Stefan Galoppi commented in mass-circulation Kurier (1/11):  "Abbas is an experienced man who does not wear a uniform and neither does he think along military lines. He has realized that violence will not build a Palestinian state and that his impoverished people are tired of warfare. His strong mandate should help him to keep the radicals in check, weed out cronyism, and resume the difficult dialogue with the Israelis. As an Oslo negotiator, the 69-year old Abbas knows their sensitive spots like no other. On the Israeli side, the constellation is also favorable:  With Simon Perez, there is now a decided peace advocate in the cabinet. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon intends to create a new situation with the withdrawal from the Gaza Strip this year.  The dominant superpower is headed by a man who, by forging a Middle East peace during his second term, could earn himself an honorable place in the history books, which is otherwise uncertain. What Israel should do now is build up Mahmud Abbas as an equal partner by granting him quick and noticeable success. Renewed violence that will certainly come, must not be allowed to serve as a pretext for denying negotiations. What must be done now is to show, very patiently, that optimism can be a political virtue--even against all negative experience."

 

"Four Reasons For Peace--And Why They Won't Work"

 

Foreign editor Christian Ultsch said in centrist Die Presse (1/11):  "The moment for a new start is as favorable as never before. First of all, Abbas, in contrast to his predecessor Arafat, is a pragmatist for whom the Israelis harbor a certain esteem. Second, the Palestinians are tired of war and have therefore given their President a strong mandate to end the rebellion against Israel. Third, Israel's government, after the joining of the Labor Party, has a broad enough base to carry through peace negotiations. And fourth, President Bush, in view of the Iraq disaster, might welcome some news that ring favorably in the ears of Arabs, for example news of the founding of a Palestinian state. Thus, the basic conditions appear favorable. A closer look at the details, however, does not allow for too much optimism. Once before, during his brief term as Prime Minister, Abbas tried to cajole radical groups, like Hamaz and Islamic Jihad, into agreeing to an armistice. He failed then. Why this should be different now, is not quite clear....  Nobody should harbor the illusion that the new Palestinian President will show himself exceptionally soft in his negotiations with Israel. If Abbas were to give up crucial negotiating positions, such as the Palestinians' claim on East Jerusalem and a return of the refugees, he would be a dead man. 'Arafat in a suit,' the Israeli journalist Danny Rubinstein once called him. Well, questions of style are not to be discounted in politics. But it will take more than a change of dress to end the Middle East tragedy--perhaps also a new Israeli Prime Minister."

 

"The New Thing About Abbas"

 

Gudrun Harrer stated in independent Der Standard (1/11):  "The trust of the voters is not so much in Mahmud Abbas as a person, than in the recommendation of Fatah. Now, Abbas must prove that he can deliver on the expectations placed in him and for this he needs Israel's help, since the chance for an improvement of living conditions for the Palestinians rests with Israel. Much will depend on whether Israel will give him that help, even if he should not immediately fulfill all of Israel's expectations....  With Egypt as a mediator, there will be talk about the joining of the militant Palestinian groups in a political process--the planned parliamentary elections in the summer--and an armistice. The chances are not bad that this will succeed for the time being. How long such an agreement will last is a different matter. Abbas' record would have to show not just improvements for the Palestinians, but substantial political progress in the relationship with Israel. However, this takes two. What is certain is that Abbas, with all his awareness that he has establish his own credentials in his dealings with Israel, will first of all try to do what he failed at as first Palestinian Prime Minister on account of Arafat:  To instill something like a 'rule of law' and 'good governance' into the Palestinian political culture. This would take a radical reorganization of the security forces, their integration into the 'state'--and this even before such a state exists. This sequence of events--first of all the establishment of a Palestinian political culture and then negotiations with Israel--or even a coexistence of these two issues on an equal basis--is something that Yasser Arafat would never have accepted. That is the new thing about Abbas."

 

"A Tightrope Walk That Could Easily Be Abbas' Fall"

 

Senior editor Helmut L. Muller opined in independent Salzburger Nachrichten (1/11):  "The confrontation with the radicals is turning into a race against time for Abbas. The more the Palestinians might feel that they have a better life in peaceful times, the more Abbas might succeed in marginalizing the militant forces. The clearer the Palestinians can see that Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is the beginning of a two-state solution, the less the extremists would be an obstacle in Abbas' way. During this tightrope walk Abbas could easily fall. 'Symbolic' concessions on the part of the Israelis will not help him. Only a clear loosening of the occupying regime's restrictions can get him the necessary authority with his people. The international community, who is currently applauding the Palestinians' democratic maturity, has a duty here. In particular, passivity on the part of the U.S would be a big mistake. If President Bush were to remain on the sidelines as a verbose, but inactive observer, this game, too, will be lost." 

 

"Out Of The Shadow"

 

Ernst Trost maintained in mass-circulation tabloid Neue Kronenzeitung (1/10):  "It is said about Mahmud Abbas that he never wore a pistol and never fought in a battle. As a 13-year old he fled with his family from what is today Israel to Syria. After his studies in Damascus he played the part of clever, levelheaded man in the background. It is only now that the 69-year old ex-Prime Minister has emerged from Arafat's shadow as the favored candidate in the presidential elections on Sunday, presenting himself as Arafat's logical heir....  Never before did Abbas have such close contact with his people. And he seems to enjoy the crowds, the cheers and the closeness to the people that surround him wherever he goes. The Israelis, however, are hoping that he will remain the pragmatic realist he has been known to be until now. Abbas thinks little of pointless violence, condemns terror and would like to end the Intifada. At the same time, however, he continues to support the right of over three million refugees to return to their country. Winning the consent of Hamas and the other radicals for a peace solution is going to be a more difficult task for Abbas than a victory at the polls."

 

BELGIUM:  "Mahmoud Abbas Has His Back To The Wall"

 

Baudouin Loos asserted in left-of-center Le Soir (1/11):  "Serious things are only beginning for the new Palestinian President. Elected with over 62 percent of the votes, Mahmoud Abbas has gained the popular legitimacy that he was lacking. But he is now facing the huge task of responding to the aspirations of Palestinians who are worn out after four years of Intifada and of endless suffering.  His first objective will undoubtedly be to tidy things up at home, i.e. within the Palestinian Authority, which is in very poor condition. Corruption and nepotism are blighting Palestinian society. Will Abbas dare to send a strong signal, firing a few Ministers known for being corrupt..?  Mahmoud Abbas will obviously not be able to succeed in the huge task he is facing by himself. He clearly and urgently needs Israeli and international assistance. Europeans will probably respond positively. They have always lent financial assistance to the Palestinian Authority, to the great satisfaction of Israel, which did not have to worry about that aspect without being forced to end the occupation.  As for the Americans, they have said that they were willing to help Abbas. The best favor they can do to the region would be to put all their weight--which everyone knows can be decisive--for both sides to resume negotiations. The latter's final objective should be the Palestinian territories' final status, in accordance with the wishes of George W. Bush himself who, in a June 2002 speech that is famous in this region, had called for the creation of a Palestinian State."

 

"Realist"

 

Mia Doornaert contended in independent Christian-Democrat De Standaard (1/11):  "A new opportunity for peace seems to be emerging.  The Palestinians have a democratically elected President who urges for peaceful negotiations.  The Israeli Prime Minister has just presented a government of national unity, which is expected to support him against the radicals among his own rank-and-file.  Sharon has already said that he is willing to meet with Abbas this week.  However, dialogue merely for dialogue's sake will not suffice.  Mahmoud Abbas is often viewed as a moderate leader, but 'realist' would be a better word.  He was against the militarization of the second Intifada because he saw harmful consequences: internal insecurity, international isolation and tough Israeli reactions....  If the new dialogue does not yield the perspective of an agreement for a viable Palestinian state Abbas may rapidly be considered a puppet of Sharon and George W. Bush.  For that reason the U.S. President must work much more intensively for an agreement--if he takes peace in the Middle East seriously.  Confidence in bilateral negotiations only will not be enough because the problems are too complicated and emotional, and because there is too much resistance among the radical elements....  Now, the U.S. and the other major international players--including the EU--must show that they won't miss this new chance.  In reality, there is also a majority of people among the Israelis and the Palestinians who prefer a divided territory and a so-called unjust peace over a holy war.  That peace camp--which is much larger than the outside world often realizes--deserves all the possible support."

 

"Crossroads"

 

Erik Ziarczyk wrote in independent financial De Tijd (1/11):  "Yesterday, the Israelis and Palestinians arrived at a crossroads. Both parties must make a major choice in the coming days and weeks: will they continue their bloody conflict or will they opt for a new dialogue?....  Abbas's victory is good news for the peace process in the Middle East.  He is considered to be a moderate and pragmatic man.  He is in a position to breathe new life into the peace talks with the Israelis.  Whether he is successful or not will depend on Israel's attitude.  Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has already said that he willing to meet with the new Palestinian President.  However, that does not mean that the Israelis, all of a sudden, will plunge into the peace process.  They will stick to their original demand: the end of 'Palestinian terrorism.'  Abbas is willing to tackle that problem, but he needs time.  Hopefully, the Israelis will give him that time....  A major task lies ahead for the international community--and for the U.S. in particular.  The last few years the Americans have ignored the Middle East peace process.  That may change--given the first signals from Washington after the election of Abbas.  Bush said that he is willing to invite Abbas to the White House and his administration is willing to put its shoulders under the peace talks again.  The fact that the U.S. is willing to give Abbas room to put things in order is a (positive) thing. But, it won't yield anything as long as it does not force Israel to the negotiation table."

 

"The Moment Of Truth"

 

Foreign editor Gerald Papy wrote in independent La Libre Belgique (1/10):  "Although these Palestinian Presidential elections were not 'historical' as some claimed they were since they were simply the repetition of the 1996 ballot, they once again highlighted the political maturity of Palestinian people and leaders, an almost unprecedented experience in the Arab Muslim world.  The political transition that began with the death of Yasser Arafat was carried through with dignity and serenity. But this period of grace has come to an end. Palestinian people and leaders are now facing challenges.  The size of these challenges can be assessed based on the initial reactions of Mahmoud Abbas' future main foreign interlocutors. Of the heads of Israeli and American diplomacies, it is Colin Powell who was the most optimistic on Sunday, saying that 'with goodwill and a good leadership at the helm of the Palestinian Authority, it is time to make the Road Map progress.'  His Israeli counterpart, Sylvan Shalom, contented himself with repeating that Mahmoud Abbas 'must make the strategic decision to bring an end to terrorism and to incitements to hatred and violence.' As if this were something that could be decided.  Of course, Mahmoud Abbas' credibility will be tested based on the decisions that he will be able to make to fight corruption and to 'demilitarize' the Intifada--as he had promised to do during his campaign. But since there is no infallible method that can be opposed to terrorism, the sincerity of the Americans and Israelis' commitment to resume a dialogue will also be tested based on the understanding that they will show for Mahmoud Abbas and for the challenges that he is facing. Because they will no longer be able to use the 'scarecrow Arafat' to shy away from their responsibilities."

 

"New Life"

 

Erik Ziarczyk observed in independent financial De Tijd (1/10):  "The presidential elections in Palestine can breathe new life into the Middle East peace process.  That is the general expectation.  For quite some time both parties have talked about a new dialogue.  However, the obstacles are still very much present and both the Palestinian and Israeli leaders are wrestling with domestic agendas....  There is no doubt that Israel will continue to stick to its old demands--such as the disarmament of radical groups.  During his campaign, Abbas hinted that he was not prepared to carry out that disarmament with the use of violence.  However, a hopeful element was that Hamas and the Islamic Jihad said yesterday that they are willing to work together with the new President.  That opens the door to a unilateral truce in which Hamas and other radicals promise that they will stop the attacks....  The execution of the Gaza plan may last a large part of the year.  Opposition in Israel is surging.  That means that Sharon will have to devote much time and energy to save his plan and to consolidate his power....  There is no doubt that 2005 will be an important year for the Middle East peace process, but it is uncertain that much progress will be made in the coming months." 

 

"Abbas Needs Courage Now"

 

Foreign editor Paul De Bruyn stated in conservative Christian-Democrat Gazet van Antwerpen (1/10):  "It will not be easy for Mahmoud Abbas.  Yet, a lot is expected from him.  As a moderate person he enjoys more confidence among the Israelis and Americans than the other Palestinian leaders.  (Israel and the U.S.) rely on him for making the Palestinians accept a new peace settlement.  The future will tell whether they are wrong or not.  During his campaign Abbas promised that he would follow Arafat's example.  He wants to cherish the latter's heritage, but he is also willing to go farther.  A positive element is that he openly opposed the continuation of violence.  In his view, that turns against the Palestinians.  His sneer last week at the 'Zionist enemy' made the alarm bell ring for a moment in Israel, but it was probably a strategy to defend himself against the hardliners' view that he does not dare to act.  If that was not a strategy, but a serious threat, a new problem will surface soon.  In that case, he won't be able to count on Sharon's understanding....  The Israelis expect the new Palestinian leader to do something that Arafat never could: carry out a promise.  Arafat never wanted and dared to take a step that was irreversible.  Abbas will have to do that.  If not, the chance of a breakthrough will disappear--perhaps for good.  That means that he will have to make difficult decisions.  He also must prepare the Palestinians for full-fledged political and economic institutions.  Hopefully, he will not stand alone if he has that courage.  The Americans, the Europeans and, of course, the Israelis must be supportive.  That can be the case during the March 1-2 Middle East conference in London.  The region is facing decisive moments.  In that context, Arafat's death makes new breakthroughs possible.  It is now a binding task for all the parties not to  waste that opportunity."

 

"Immense Task"

 

Foreign editor Frank Schloemer commented in independent De Morgen (1/10):  "The new Palestinian leader's task is immense and his leeway is limited.  He will be followed and judged by all the Palestinians, the Israelis and the international community.  The radical movements are giving him some time, but it is virtually certain that they will enter into action again if no progress is visible....  A positive factor may be that the new Palestinian leadership is coming to power at the moment when even a hardliner like Sharon is willing to pay a price.  He has angered a large part of his own population with his unilateral military withdrawal from the occupied Gaza Strip.  Many Israelis take that ill and religious fanatics even call for mutiny or threaten with the irresponsible prospect of civil war.  Yet, Sharon seems to be willing to go on with that evacuation plan--which may be a first step towards a wider settlement."

 

"There Is A Lot Of Work For Arafat's Successor"

 

Baudouin Loos said in left-of-center Le Soir (1/8):  "The task that Mahmoud Abbas will be facing as of next week is incredibly difficult. After four years of armed Intifada, Palestine is in ruins. Chaos is what characterizes Palestinian security services. The rule of law has never existed in Palestine and the economy is dominated by corruption and unemployment. Mahmoud Abbas--if he is the one who succeeds Yasser Arafat--will probably act his own way, i.e. using consultation and persuasion. He will need a lot of the latter to convince radicals that despicable terrorist actions and armed struggle do not work."

 

DENMARK:  "Historic Opportunity"

 

Center-right Berlingske Tidende opined (1/11):  "The Palestinian elections have acted as a stopper for the extremist organizations.  They had recommended that the elections should be boycotted, but the turn-out was fairly high....  The situation among the Palestinian leadership seems less complicated than it was (while Arafat lived) and this is crucial for the rest of the world, including Israel.   Abbas must be given a chance now that the opportunity for peace appears to be there." 

 

"America's Mission Israel"

 

Center-left Politiken editorialized (1/11):  "America's task in the Middle East is to make the Israeli population realize that they have the first real chance in 55 years to realize peace in the region.  This will demand that the Israelis will have to return the territories that they stole from the Palestinians after the Six Day War.  This should be something that the Israelis can accept as long as it does not impact their security." 

 

HUNGARY:  "Negotiations, Gestures"

 

Endre Aczel stated in center-left Nepszabadsag (1/11):  "In the eyes of the masses, his [Mahmud Abbas's] new position and the validity of the hopes tied to him could only be legitimized if it is proven that one can achieve more with negotiations than with weapons. If he is not given help from the Israelis in that, he is a failed man. For me, that is the point where the U.S., which because of Iraq avidly craves the sympathy of the Arab countries and communities, comes into the picture. It is an American foreign policy several times more active than before that needs to be pushing the Israeli government towards bargains that Abbas could, eventually, point to as trophies....  I do not see one-sidedness as a passable road. When Israeli Foreign Affairs Minister Shalom declares that Abbas must start fighting terrorism 'as of tomorrow,' he is creating an impression as if in this process only the new Palestinian President would have work to do, and Israel none. However, there is a causality between the 'restrictive' Israeli policy on the occupied territories and the armed resistance called "terrorism"; ergo, mutual gestures will not extinguish, but--as I believe--strengthen one another."

 

"Abbas Is No Arafat"

 

Csilla Medgyesi pointed out in liberal Magyar Hirlap (1/11):  "At this point it is impossible to predict whether Abbas wants to and can convince th